Is THIS were the F.F. market is going?!?

[PovertyRow]

Desirability is far more important than rarity.

 

On a rare serious note as far as pure business goes: Ya hit the nail on the head! They say that "supply and demand" is the key. They are wrong. Demand is the key. There are TONS of rare collectibles where the demand just does not exist. One of my other related collecting areas - movie paper (lobby cards and 1-sheet/half-sheet/insert posters) - there are a SLEW of pieces that are very rare - but also these are films heard of by few and collected by less. Who wants a hi-grade SIN TOWN lobby showing Broderick Crawford even though it IS an original 40's Universal? Then - check out the tail end of the Universal Horror cycle - an original HOUSE OF DRACULA lobby card - prepare for "creative accounting" to afford.

 

edited a pargrab that was not working

[murph0]

Again, it's hard to supply a demand that isn't as blatantly obvious as Spiderman. If a quality FF movie ever shows up, I bet..no I'll guarantee..all this exponentially rarer then Spidey books bs will disapear.

 

Brian

[LordRahl]

Why is that? Spidey books were more plentiful years before the Spiderman movie was even thought of, much less an actuality. Of course the movie spurred more people to sell as will an FF movie. But I don't think near the same number of high grade early FFs will surface as Spidey.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

As someone who has been pursuing high grade Spideys AND F.F.s since the early 1990s, my personal experience is that ASMs have always been much easier to find in high grade, long before even CGC was around..

 

Some examples of high grade Spideys I bought at conventions in the 90s (because they were available and at/or under Guide):

 

# 2 (VF/NM)

# 6 (VF/NM)

# 8 (2 copies, one NM-, one VF/NM)

# 10 (NM-)

# 14 (3 copies, all VF+ or better)

and numerous VF/NM copies from 15-40.

 

How many high grade early F.F.s did I find at these shows? One. A # 5 in VF. Every other premium early F.F. I ever bought came from a mail order dealer, or private collector. They are, and always have been, much tougher to locate, and the CGC census bears that out.

 

As far as demand, one need only look at the ebay market and the current prices and multiples that high grade F.F.s bring to see how desirable they are.

 

Now as for that quality F.F. movie....

[COI]

-Not directed at you specifically blowout-

 

Everyone goes on and on about how ASM's are in a higher demand than FF's. Well no S*&T!! Can anyone think if a single title(not key books or specific runs, but a title as a whole) that's more in demand than ASM? No? I didn't think so.

 

That being said, I think many people underestimate silver FF's. We've had this discussion before, but FF is a more important title to Marvel Silver than ASM is and is VASTLY more difficult to find in HG.

 

POV, your example of Lobby cards is not apt in this case. You referring to some movie that no one has ever heard of is an extreme, and is far from comparative to FF and its impact on Marvel silver. EVERY serious Silver collector I know(Silver, not ASM) would trade in a NM run of ASM for a NM run of FF without giving it a second thought. Yes, ASM has a higher demand, but don't forget that AVAILABILITY ALSO FEEDS DEMAND to a point. For example; are tons of silver collectors adding a NM copy of FF 13 to their SERIOUS want lists? No, because it's just too rare, and in the off chance that someone has a chance to buy one, competition would be tremendous and the price very high. So how many collectors are going to actively pursue a NM FF 13? And if barely anyone is actively pursuing it, doesen't that TECHNICALLY mean it is in lower demand?

 

And you can't take guide prices on early FF's seriously at all. ASm #1 guides for more than FF #1 which is totally ludicrous. FF #1's are seldom seen, even in POS grades, and especially when compared to the number of POS ASM #1's that are crawling around. Not to mention the VAST significance of FF #1 over ASM #1. And lets look at CGC 9.4 sales of each: ASM #1 in CGC 9.4 would average somewhere in the 60K region, yet the only CGC 9.4 FF #1 ever to be auctioned(last summer) brought in just over 111K.

 

So to sum up(it's almost 6am and I'm half waisted) ASM as a whole is in more demand than FF #1, HOWEVER I think that the degree to which ASM is in higher demand is greatly exaggerated as well. The only reason ASM's seem to be in sooooo much higher demand is simple because they come up for auction enough that you can witness the frantic bidding much more often. Quite simply, if more FF's surfaced, you'd be surprised at the outcomes. What's the reasons more FF don't surface? It isn't about hype. It's the fact that a collector can sell a nice ASM, and count on finding another one down the road, but for many FF's , once a nice copy is sold, that may be the end of it.

[drdonaldblake]

in mid 2002 i think a ff 33 9.4 went for $1350 or thereabouts

 

there were up to 20 bids on that book from different bidders

 

i know the guy who won it but cant remembr the seller, only he had a slew of other 9.4 ff;s that ALL went for 4-6 x nm guide

 

there are some real hardcore ff freaks out there and the movie is going to send prices ballistic

[fantastic_four]

EVERY serious Silver collector I know(Silver, not ASM) would trade in a NM run of ASM for a NM run of FF without giving it a second thought.

I like Spidey better than FF, but I'd definitely trade a NM run of ASM for a NM run of FF. You can get the NM Spidey run back, but the odds are much longer on getting NM FFs back.

 

Murph--my theory about the lower population of early FFs is due to the fact that it was the first major Marvel title and there wasn't enough of a fan base yet for Marvel to print runs as large as it was obvious would be needed by the time Spidey came out. This theory is supported by the fact that the other titles that came out pre-Amazing Fantasy 15 such as Hulk 1 to 6 and Journey Into Mystery 83 to 90-something are just as hard to find as early Fantastic Fours. I don't have numbers to back it up, but I'm rather confident that because Amazing Fantasy 15 was such a hit, Lee and Goodman decided to increase the print run of Spidey #1 on up; it fits in with the story Stan tells about how they cancelled Amazing Fantasy until they saw how #15 ended up being their best selling comic of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the print run for Spidey was ALWAYS higher than FF, although I don't think print run statistics were kept for the early Marvel issues so I don't know whether that's right or not.

 

My secondary hypothesis that I'm less sure about but that makes sense as to why early FFs are rarer is because they fell under the radar of most collectors/investors for a year or so before word got out as to how good Marvel was becoming, so the early issues weren't saved in nice condition as frequently as the 1963 and later issues.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

To elaborate on your point Fantastic:

 

If you took the first two issues of Fantastic Four, would they have in ANY WAY stood out amongst any of the other Pre-Hero books that Marvel was punching out in droves?

 

Nope!

 

In my mind, they were essentially pre-hero books; no costumes, very heavy on the Sci-Fi/Fantasy element, etc. All they were missing was the back-up stories (like Journey into Mystery 83 on). I think it took the title a while to gain a foothold among comic readers; probably a good year and a half, before it was indeed considered collectible. Keep in mind, the F.F.title was in no way a "sure thing", it took several issues before it even became a monthly publication!

 

Thus, the print runs were lower, and the incentive to preserve them as collectibles did not yet exist.

 

Thats my take.

 

 

[murph0]

I guess we'll just wait and see. There's been twice as many Spiderman back issues on the market since the movie was announced and in planning about 4 years ago.

 

Brian

[MuadDib]

I don't know...an FF#48 CGC 9.4 W just sold for around 1300 on eBay. That's pretty sucky compared to what I bought it at 1800. Also, that is a KEY KEY issue to own...I've also been viewing some other books and the market seems to be going down. (I'm not complaining though...I collect to collect first and finance my collection with my immediate investments). But that's pretty impressive for an FF 33!!

[rob_react]

FF 48 isn't a good example. The first Silver Surfer was recognized as a key from the very beginning and was therefore hoarded in great quantity. Any weakness in its pricing is due to relative oversupply in high grade and does not shine any light on the availability or desirability of other FFs. I haven't followed Fantastic Fours very closely over the past few months, but I imagine that if 9.4s of even 49- 52 were to hit the market there would be no weakness in the prices realized. That is to say nothing of the demand for high grade examples of any of the really early issues.

[fantastic_four]

You're exactly right about the oversupply of FF 48 being the reason an issue just went for $1300, although the earliness of the hour the auction ended affected it also--I meant to bid on that but forgot to do it because I got busy at work.

 

I've noticed some things about FF 48 that challenge the notion that the reason the supply is so high is because it was hoarded by collectors. Spidey 33 is just as abundantly common as FF 48, and they both came out within a few weeks of each other. This implies Marvel overprinted some comics that month, Marvel reprinted the title at some point, or there was a warehouse find on that month's Marvels at some point.

 

I suspect Marvel changed the way they printed comics the month FF 48 came out. There are two aspects to both Spidey 33 and FF 48 that lead me to believe this:

 

• Over 75% of the copies of Spidey 33/34 and FF 48 are miswrapped with the front cover wrapping to the back. Spidey 32 and 35, as well as Fantastic Four 47 and 49, do not have this kind of miswrap. In fact, Spidey 35 and FF 49 are exceptionately WELL-centered in my limited experience, at least as compared to Spidey 33/34 and FF 48; I wonder whether Marvel person_without_enough_empathyed out the printer between FF 48 and 49 for screwing up the quality of the cover centering.
• This was the time period where Marvel changed the cover graphics a bit--they moved the 12-cent box around that month, and they switched the font style on the word "Marvel Comics Group" in the upper left

What I've been meaning to do is open up a copy of Spidey 32, 33, 34, and 35, as well as Fantastic Four 46, 47, and 48 to see if the publisher Marvel used for those months changed on the Spidey 33 and FF 48 issues. If you haven't noticed, they put the name of the company who printed the comics on the inside front cover; Marvel changed their publisher several times during the Silver Age.

 

Anybody got an unslabbed Spidey 33 and 35 and FF 48 and 49 who feels like opening it and seeing who the publisher was? I don't own Spidey 33 at all and don't want to crack the slab on my FF 48 since I may flip it in the near future, but I do have unslabbed copies of Spidey 32/34 and FF 47 and can check them.

[blowout]

I have certainly heard the tale that Marvel went to a second, or at least extra, printing of both ASM #33 & FF #48.

There is even some evidence (tentative) that each issue has two slightly different color variants which may indicate these additional print runs. Hopefully someone in the know can clarify this.

[aardvark88]

ASM 31 Non-Pareil Publishing. ASM 34 same Non-Pareil. Too bus y to dig for my FF 49, 50 raw right now.

[Aman619]

What I've been meaning to do is open up a copy of Spidey 32, 33, 34, and 35, as well as Fantastic Four 46, 47, and 48 to see if the publisher Marvel used for those months changed on the Spidey 33 and FF 48 issues. If you haven't noticed, they put the name of the company who printed the comics on the inside front cover; Marvel changed their publisher several times during the Silver Age.

 

I think you are mistaking 'publisher' for printer. Tthe various Marvel publishing imprints you see in the indicias are (just a guess, not th eresult odf scholarly research) just a shell game for some internal probably bookkeeping reasons. Like a film producer who sets up a separate company for each film he produces.

 

There was only one 'printer' back then for both DC and Marvel in Sparta.

 

Sounds like the 'printer screwed up' theory is more likely. They may have been forced by Marvel for make goods on the two comics they mis-printed so badly so they went back on press. The observation that BOTH the next issues were printed much better is further proof that the client (Marvel0 was all over their vendor that month!

[hammer-migration]

Blowout, There's definite evidence if you examine the benday/dot pattern color amalgams of FF 48 and Spiderman 33. There appears to be two different, separate, distinct patterns of color used that are NON-gradient (that is, either / or, not a "gray" area in between as when there is normal color fade in storage or certain colors are becoming weaker in the print run). There are OTHERS also, within the Spiderman run, like 41 to 43, 45, 48, 49 specifically that appear to share this "extra/double" printing duality trait.

[blowout]

Thats kind of along the lines of what I had heard. Didn't know about the other Spideys though. Why aren't 44 & 46 in the mix? Can't imagine those issues would have been weaker sellers than the issues around them.

 

BTW, love the masked avatars.

[Aman619]

Could you try that again in either printers language OR English??

Youre saying that they were printed from two different sets of film?

Or two different levels of inking on th eplates during printing, over-inked and under-inked?

[bronze]

*ahem*

 

"were" ="where"

 

 

 

[hammer-migration]

Not sure because I'm NOT a printer and don't know the difference between the two types of procedures BUT there are two different patterns of color, one weighted more heavily towards red than brown used on the FF 48 without intermediary gradients between the two resultant colors of brown yielded by the two different amalgams of overlayed dot patterns. The SAME PLATE (engraving) for BOTH types of FF 48 appears to have been used but there is a difference in color selection that is consistantly displayed, there being two distinct and separately produced types.