Print runs of Moderns = valuable??

[B3AST]

So the question is do you think current low print runs are going to effect the future value of modern popular titles?

 

First let me clarify “Modern”. I’m talking last 8 years or so after the 90’s bubble popped. Print runs of books seem to have stabilized even as industry sales seem to be gaining some momentum, recession excluded. Even so, according to sales figures, the top selling books month to month rarely have Diamond distributed runs over 200,000 since the bust. We’ll ignore ASM 583 @ 530K as a speculator hiccup. The next highest ordered book of ‘09 was Blackest Night 1 @ 205K. Everything else was below the 200K line. Then we have sleeper hits like Chew and Walking Dead with far lower print runs.

 

I guess a corresponding question would be how many collectors are out there? If there are only ever 150-200K collectors of “key” books then even these print runs are sufficient to keep future prices low assuming not every collector wants every key.

 

I’ve been in this business a long time on both sides of the counter and I’ve never cared to speculate with my wallet just my brain. I have stuck to collecting what I enjoy reading and plan to keep doing so. But right now I see speculator prices on books like those mentioned previously and I really have no idea where comics are headed.

 

 

 

[rjpb]

From the copper age onward the most valuable books tend to be independents with the first appearance of a character or characters who became popular, at least on a cult level, or extremely rare variants (often independents as well). The common factor is the low print runs these books had, often 3000 or less. In todays market a print run of 50,000 let alone 150,000 can't be considered particularly low.

 

Conversely, relatively high run books may have a temporary bump in value, due to hording and hyped up demand, but as we see time and time again, these books often end up being worth no more than cover price raw in a few months or years. My guess is that the serious collector market will never grow large enough to create a sustained scarcity of books with print runs of 50K and over (barring the highest grade copies of a book that for some reason is difficult to find in the top grades).

[sterlingcomics]

Two obvious factors: popularity and print run

 

Example: Walking Dead #1 from 2003...only 6,000 copies printed...9.8 copies keep on going up.

[KolmarAvenue]

Two obvious factors: popularity and print run

 

Example: Walking Dead #1 from 2003...only 6,000 copies printed...9.8 copies keep on going up.

 

Which recently broke the $500 mark (if it hadn't before).

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/Kirkman-Walking-Dead-1-CGC-9-8-White-Pages_W0QQitemZ160394626283QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item255843c4eb

[KolmarAvenue]

Key books in high grade will always be the exception I believe. You can always have a popular book that hits the collector if it has the key cover/appearance/story/etc... But, to have that same book in high grade will help it shoot the moon. NM 98 in 9.9? Bone #1 9.8? These same books in fine are very affordable.

 

Let's just have a new popular character, let's say mutated negative zone spiderman with a black cover first appear in an initially low ordered title like Mary Jane has a Tea Party #3 of 5 and you'll see some action. And we'll hope that it's recalled because the artist threw in some phallic representations and we can all retire. Maybe?

[DiceX]

It got hot last year and had a couple of 9.8 sales in the area of $550.

 

 

[Topnotchman]

Low print run of Independents seem have merit compared to what there original cover price was. I'm thinking original Crow book, Turtles #1, Bone #1, newer books like Walking Dead #1. If one would of boughten 10-100 copies of those books and put them away, the return would of been extra ordinary, someone capable of predicting the future on Independents, is well extra ordinary.

 

I bought Watchmens very heavy two years before the movie, that panned out for me. The books were considered a dead 80's title when in broken sets. There is probably lots of dead 80's and 90's titles out there the may have a resurrection sometime in the next 10 years. I think the Marvel Star books have potential due to low print runs and difficulty in high grades.

[KolmarAvenue]

Low print run of Independents seem have merit compared to what there original cover price was. I'm thinking original Crow book, Turtles #1, Bone #1, newer books like Walking Dead #1. If one would of boughten 10-100 copies of those books and put them away, the return would of been extra ordinary, someone capable of predicting the future on Independents, is well extra ordinary.

 

I bought Watchmens very heavy two years before the movie, that panned out for me. The books were considered a dead 80's title when in broken sets. There is probably lots of dead 80's and 90's titles out there the may have a resurrection sometime in the next 10 years. I think the Marvel Star books have potential due to low print runs and difficulty in high grades.

 

MOTU, Heathcliff, and the like? Maybe I'll buy some of Chucks Alf's 48 at $56 a pop to slab...

 

http://milehighcomics.com/cgi-bin/backissue.cgi?action=fullsize&issue=02281023554%2048

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yes, B3, you are absolutely correct. Print runs since about 1997-98 have circled the drain, and as a result, nearly every single comic published in the last 12 years or so are much, much rarer than their 60's-90's counterparts.

 

If...and this is a huge if, granted...but if we had even HALF the interest in comics that we had in 1990-1993, everything from 1998-2010 would be sucked up very fast, and then soar in value.

 

After all...if you want to collect Geoff Johns' Flash run....which is a pretty good run, all considered...how many of the roughly 50K print runs still exist, and are in high grade?

 

50K print run? That's nothing. You get 100,000 people looking for a book with a 50K print run...or less....and they're all going to be $10, $20, $50, $100....

 

But this is not likely. I'm hedging my bets.

[Dale Roberts]

Yes, B3, you are absolutely correct. Print runs since about 1997-98 have circled the drain, and as a result, nearly every single comic published in the last 12 years or so are much, much rarer than their 60's-90's counterparts.

 

If...and this is a huge if, granted...but if we had even HALF the interest in comics that we had in 1990-1993, everything from 1998-2010 would be sucked up very fast, and then soar in value.

 

After all...if you want to collect Geoff Johns' Flash run....which is a pretty good run, all considered...how many of the roughly 50K print runs still exist, and are in high grade?

 

50K print run? That's nothing. You get 100,000 people looking for a book with a 50K print run...or less....and they're all going to be $10, $20, $50, $100....

 

But this is not likely. I'm hedging my bets.

 

There will never be 100,000 people looking for those books. And most of the people that actually want those books, already have them. You will need to have either a huge increase in new comic customers or a huge return of the people who were reading books in the 80s and 90s.

 

IMO, the books to purchase are the main run Marvel Super-Hero books from 96 & 97. Print runs were at all time lows and the books are pretty solid quality for the most part. These books are tough now and will be in demand at some point.

 

I don't know as much about the current comics market, but the quality of some books is very bad. Amazing Spider-man is at its absolute low point in my opinion. Just a horrible read and the art is atrocious. I can't believe anybody buys it at the 2.99/3.99 price point. I would guess some of the stuff like Avengers is still decent, but I have really not kept up.

[joe_collector]

There will never be 100,000 people looking for those books.

 

Truer words have ne'er been spoken.

 

There is a *reason* why print runs are so low, decreased demand combined with insane price increases. Comic unit sales are actually decreasing, while constant price increases have artificially increased revenues. Add that the comic shops are now the no-returns customers, and not us, and you have a pretty scary scenario.

 

I thought it was telling, and quite hilarious, when Diamond dropped unit sales in favor of pure $$$ cover prices.

[Mr. Zipper]

There will never be 100,000 people looking for those books. And most of the people that actually want those books, already have them. You will need to have either a huge increase in new comic customers or a huge return of the people who were reading books in the 80s and 90s.

 

Also, you need to factor in the fact that 90%+ of the original print run exists in 9.0 or better condition. A far cry from Silver or even Bronze where a large portion of the print run no longer exists or is in low to mid grade.

[chromium]

IMO, the books to purchase are the main run Marvel Super-Hero books from 96 & 97. Print runs were at all time lows and the books are pretty solid quality for the most part. These books are tough now and will be in demand at some point.

 

Agreed, but I think the "sweet-spot" is a little later...

 

Late 1998 through to end 2000 was the absolute low-point for ASM sales-wise.

Issues #15 through to #21 (V2) have a max Diamond pre-order of 52.000 issues

Up to #29 the numbers drop even more, with #28 having a mere 48.500 issues preordered....

The series was in deep-deep trouble back then and not a lot of people were buying it....

And there's always a buyer for ASM #430 - #441...lots of Spidey completionists out there that dropped out after the clone saga and only returned with the buzz around the JMS run or the 911 issue...

 

And this is Amazing Spider-man, one of the most collected titles out there.

[kidcolt]

There seems to be less collectors who are actually buying modern comics on a monthly basis. There is a lot who wait a few months and then buying them as cheap lots of overstock off ebay. Factor in online comics and that will drop demand even more. I just noticed that the Archie titles are being pushed as online comics. Most of the collectors are older lets say 30+, most of these collectors are collecting copper/bronze/silver/Gold age books.

 

 

I would think that 25,000 copies of a modern book is a decent sell through per month. Its higher for the main titles (ASM, TEC, X-men, Batman) and for those silly big event related comics but I bet 75% of the monthly titles have less then a 25,000 print run.

 

Somewhere down the road some of these might demand more money however even at a meager 25,000 there are plenty to go a round. The key books are the few big huts that have low print runs. However there are just as many garbage dog titles with these low print runs that never make it.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Granted, granted, granted.

 

The odds that there will ever be a comics renaissance like the early 90's are slim to none. Probably a billion to one at this point.

 

But IF....IF there is, boy howdy, look out. Grade will not matter, because the absolute number of these books in existence is likely lower than ALL the extant copies of a late Silver Age book like Amazing Spiderman. So the extant copies will be top heavy, grade wise...but when there are only 20,000 copies available en toto, it won't much matter.

 

And remember, wayyyy back in the olden days, grade did not matter...just having a copy was the goal....until people got together and compared their collections, and condition envy started to pop up. Not quite the same here, but close.

 

And Chromium is right...the sweet spot is 1999-2001. Print runs were obscene... 88,000 copies of Ultimate Spiderman #1...?

[chromium]

88,000 copies of Ultimate Spiderman #1...?

 

I think it's even less...

 

Ultimate Spider-Man 1 - $2.99 Marvel - 54,400 - Sep 2000

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

88,000 copies of Ultimate Spiderman #1...?

 

I think it's even less...

 

Ultimate Spider-Man 1 - $2.99 Marvel - 54,400 - Sep 2000

 

 

I *think* that the 88,000 number includes newsstand copies....maybe.

 

It would make sense. I haven't read that info for several years, though...

[kidcolt]

My brother is 10 years younger then me and his generation is really into collecting older video games. None of them care about sports cards or comics however they pay big money for old video games.

[joe_collector]

My brother is 10 years younger then me and his generation is really into collecting older video games. None of them care about sports cards or comics however they pay big money for old video games.

 

I've been dabbling in buying Collector/Special Editions when they go on clearance (just because I like them) and I have noticed there is a SERIOUS grassroots movement for this. Lots of kids and young adults actually buy 2 games, one to play and the other for their collection. Lots of people are looking for HTF recent sealed games, and are paying big bucks for them, some versions are rarer than others (variants?) and valuable, etc.

 

Games are incredibly easy to stack and store, as well as to display and I see this absolutely exploding in under 10 years.

[500Club]

There will never be 100,000 people looking for those books.

 

Truer words have ne'er been spoken.

 

There is a *reason* why print runs are so low, decreased demand combined with insane price increases. Comic unit sales are actually decreasing, while constant price increases have artificially increased revenues. Add that the comic shops are now the no-returns customers, and not us, and you have a pretty scary scenario.

 

I thought it was telling, and quite hilarious, when Diamond dropped unit sales in favor of pure $$$ cover prices.

 

These threads are always sad, as we are forced to confront the fact that comics are a dying industry.

 

The future is Vertigo's 'Crime Comics' 6" x 9" books and similar publishing formats.