The Modern Speculation Thread 5 5

[thirdgreenham]

There seemed to be a demand for this thread so I'm going to start it and see if people really care.

 

The purpose of the thread will be for folks to list books that they believe will "go up in value".

 

You may also want to include your thoughts, like the following:

 

 

• why you think it will increase in value?
  
• (%) probability that it will go up.
  
• what price do you think it will achieve?
  
• how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term
  
• additional notes:
  

 

 

First example:

 

book: Amazing Spider-Man #365 (1st app. of Spider-Man 2099, Miguel O'Hara

 

• why you think it will increase in value? He may turn out to be the lead character of The Superior Spider-Man
  
• (%) probability that it will go up. 80% it will increase very quickly
  
• what price do you think it will achieve? $15-20 for 9.6 copies
  
• how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term quick flip-6 months to a year
  
• additional notes: if The Superior Spider-Man doesn't turn out to be Miguel O'Hara, this book will go back to the dollar bins immediately
  

 

 

So, all of this being said, even though my presentation and delivery may not be perfect, and my prediction (not really mine, btw) may be a joke, there were calls for this type of thread, so here it is. Feel free to adjust and tweak the template above, it was just something to get the ball rolling.

 

My suggestions would be to not laugh and ridicule others, and to take this "investment advice" with a grain of salt. It's quite possible that for every 5 or 10 potential winners, we may only see 1 real winner.

 

Go at it, folks, let's see what books you think are worth keeping an eye on. (thumbs u

[Phill the Governor]

So you want us to help you pick a winner eh???

 

 

 

[Pinky Lee Zepplin]

book: Thor #344

 

•why you think it will increase in value? First appearance of the Dark Elf - Main villain in new Thor 2 movie

•(%) probability that it will go up. 50% it will increase very quickly

•what price do you think it will achieve? $16-?? for 9.6 copies

•how long we should hold it? ie. Not sure really, watch ebay sales as movie gets closer.

•additional notes: Even if the movie flops, it's still a key first appearance book and worthy addition to any Marvel fans collection.

[CBT]

Battle Scars #1, and the whole series

•why you think it will increase in value? First Agent Coulson, Black Fury

•(%) probability that it will go up. 100%

•what price do you think it will achieve? $20

•how long we should hold it? will eventually be considered a minor key

•additional notes: He is here to stay, in the shield show, back in the avengers movies, and is getting written into the main continuity.

 

 

The Infinity Gauntlet Series

•why you think it will increase in value? Thanos

•(%) probability that it will go up. 100%

•what price do you think it will achieve? $10-$15 a book

•how long we should hold it? Until Avengers 2, then sell, not rare books, thanos ends there

•additional notes: As the infinity gauntlet story plays out in each of the movies coming out, it will continue to climb

 

 

Captain America 14, brubaker series

•why you think it will increase in value? Bucky

•(%) probability that it will go up. 80%

•what price do you think it will achieve? $100 9.8

•how long we should hold it? Forever, another modern key in the making. He is going no where but up, in both the movies, and the comic world. He will NOT be limited to just CA2

•additional notes: bucky as winter soldier is here to stay. Print run is not huge.

Edited October 26, 2012 by CBT

[Underground44]

Great idea for a thread (thumbs u

[Nico Esq]

Larry suggested this thread and I think it will be a lot of fun to see who's right. These are a few books that I think are going to substantially increase in value:

 

(1) Detective 871 (2nd print) has a small print run of a little more than 3K, an awesome cover, and it's Scot Snyder's first Bat book. It could be huge, and make Walking Dead 33 2nd print look insignificant by comparison. a print run of approximately 37K which is tiny for a DC title let alone a Bat book.;

 

(2) Detective 871 (1st print) has a small print run of approximately 37K which is small for a DC Bat book. It is the first book that Scot Snyder wrote for Batman and has a classic cover.;

 

(3) Detective 880 is the first time Scot Snyder wrote a Joker story, it has a modest print run of 35K and an amazing cover by Jock. It may be my favorite Joker cover ever. While all three of these books have been getting some heat thanks to Death of the Family, I expect that they will get huge heat once that story gets in full swing and people realize how hard these books are becoming to find in top condition (particularly the 871 (2nd print).;

 

(4) Amazing Spidernan 365, Spider-man 2099, etc. If the rumors are true these books are going to be hot. If it's Alpha expect to see the regional variant from the Canadian Con to get the biggest bump as it has a smaller print run than the other Alpha 1st appearances;

 

(5) Think Tank is an ongoing title that is fun to read and the art is amazing. Image is starting to push the book by releasing a new spin off that deals with the Science and Technology. I anticipate that the Ashcan, the first issue and the variant of the first issue are going to go bananas in the near future.

 

(6) Danger Club, Luther Strode and other image books with strong fan followings if they become ongoing titles or have multiple strings of limited series.

 

(7) Cyber Force Volume 3 No. 1 and 1 variants are all potentially big books if the rest of the series continues to have the same quality that the first issue did. The idea of a free mini series is amazing and I imagine that fans will reward this title and stick with it because it is well written (Matt Hawkins' work on Think Tank is amazing and his work on Cyber Force will no doubt have comparable depth). The cover to the first issue was beautiful and it was fun and you can't ask for anything more from a comic.

 

(8) Non-Humans is now supposed to be an ongoing title from what was shared on the boards by someone who spoke to the creators. I'm not sure if that means that it is going to relaunch in an ongoing series, but if future issues do as good a job as the first issue did at telling a great story then this book is destined for greatness. The best news is that there are no variant covers although there are ashcans which I have yet to see. It is only a rumor about this being an ongoing, but if the rumor is right I see dollars in the secondary market future of this book.

 

(9) 52 7 and 11 are the first cameo and first full appearance of Batwoman. Batwoman was hit and miss for a while but issue 13 was done with perfection. If the quality of the writing and art continues and this creative team is intact. I imagine that these books are going to be great sellers in the coming year.

 

(10) Power if the TV show gets made these books are going to demand big bucks.

 

(11) Marvel Premiere 47 is the first appearance of Scott Lang as the Ant-Man. This book should command huge money if Lang is the main Ant-Man in the forthcoming film which is what some have speculated and/or stated on rumor sites. He is playing a key role in the New FF from Marvel Now.

 

(12) Captain America Vol 5 No. 6 variant with Bucky on the cover and No. 6 with Cap on the cover and No. 14 and the No. 14 2nd print variant.

 

(13) Thor 344 for reasons stated above succinctly;

 

(14) Battle Scars 1, 5 and 6 for reasons stated above; and

 

(15) Infinity Gauntlet

 

[gaz2810i]

Great idea as long as it doesn't end up the way of the last 2 or 3 attempts

[LarrysComics]

Great idea as long as it doesn't end up the way of the last 2 or 3 attempts

 

Love this thread.

Thanks for starting it.

 

Yeah, for some reason enjoying speculating on moderns gets a lot of CGC boardies panties all bunched up.

[Underground44]

Great idea as long as it doesn't end up the way of the last 2 or 3 attempts

 

I think "The fire" was the last one and the OP didn't have a clue. At least there's some ground rules laid in this one. The most important thing is not to put anyone else down for the books that they think will do well. If everyone does that it'll do fine

[LarrysComics]

There seemed to be a demand for this thread so I'm going to start it and see if people really care.

 

The purpose of the thread will be for folks to list books that they believe will "go up in value".

 

You may also want to include your thoughts, like the following:

 

 

• why you think it will increase in value?
  
• (%) probability that it will go up.
  
• what price do you think it will achieve?
  
• how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term
  
• additional notes:
  

 

 

First example:

 

book: Amazing Spider-Man #365 (1st app. of Spider-Man 2099, Miguel O'Hara

 

• why you think it will increase in value? He may turn out to be the lead character of The Superior Spider-Man
  
• (%) probability that it will go up. 80% it will increase very quickly
  
• what price do you think it will achieve? $15-20 for 9.6 copies
  
• how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term quick flip-6 months to a year
  
• additional notes: if The Superior Spider-Man doesn't turn out to be Miguel O'Hara, this book will go back to the dollar bins immediately
  

 

 

So, all of this being said, even though my presentation and delivery may not be perfect, and my prediction (not really mine, btw) may be a joke, there were calls for this type of thread, so here it is. Feel free to adjust and tweak the template above, it was just something to get the ball rolling.

 

My suggestions would be to not laugh and ridicule others, and to take this "investment advice" with a grain of salt. It's quite possible that for every 5 or 10 potential winners, we may only see 1 real winner.

 

Go at it, folks, let's see what books you think are worth keeping an eye on. (thumbs u

 

Great job!

 

 

[MatMarvelV1]

+1 love this idea

[Illustrious]

Captain America 14, brubaker series

•why you think it will increase in value? Bucky

•(%) probability that it will go up. 80%

•what price do you think it will achieve? $100 9.8

•how long we should hold it? Forever, another modern key in the making. He is going no where but up, in both the movies, and the comic world. He will NOT be limited to just CA2

•additional notes: bucky as winter soldier is here to stay. Print run is not huge.

 

I think Captain America #6 will end up being the bigger key since CGC denotes it as the first full appearance of the Winter Soldier. Issue #14 does have that awesome cover going for it though, probably my favorite cover of the modern era.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Illustrious

[ItsJustRyan]

 

Bravest Warriors

 

why you think it will increase in value?

Because people are insufficiently_thoughtful_persons

 

(%) probability that it will go up.

500% over cover

 

what price do you think it will achieve?

$15-$20

 

how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term

Both (some for now and later)

 

additional notes:

Cool thread! Thanks!

[Garf]

(thumbs u

[Magneto]

Very cool idea for a thread!

[Garf]

Very cool idea for a thread!

 

Yup... I think it's going to ingredients required to be popular:

 

50% Informative

30% Mis-informative

10% Drama

5% Off topic

5% Larry hate

 

edit: I assume that this will cover speculation in general. I have a question. How do the UK/EU print runs relate to the US ones? From what I have seen they are not included in the stats published by ... does anyone have a rough idea on allocations?

 

I assume this could differ wildly between publishers.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Garf

[paperheart]

Chew #1

 

[*]why you think it will decrease in value? rare as grass in high grade, likelihood of show being aired/ a hit is low

[*](%) probability that it will go down. 80%

[*]what price do you think it will achieve? $100 in 9.8

[*]how long we should short it? ie. long term

[*]additional notes:

 

 

[Boozad]

(2) Detective 871 (1st print) has a small print run of approximately 37K which is small for a DC Bat book. It is the first book that Scot Snyder wrote for Batman and has a classic cover.;

 

(3) Detective 880 is the first time Scot Snyder wrote a Joker story, it has a modest print run of 35K and an amazing cover by Jock. It may be my favorite Joker cover ever. While all three of these books have been getting some heat thanks to Death of the Family, I expect that they will get huge heat once that story gets in full swing and people realize how hard these books are becoming to find in top condition (particularly the 871 (2nd print).;

 

I just sold a copy of #871 and #880 first prints raw on eBay and they didn't perform anywhere near to where I thought they would. Both were NM+, and the #880 was the only copy on eBay UK at the time of listing, and it fetched £9.50 (around $14.25) whereas a copy listed as VF/NM ended at £16.00 (around $24) just 12 days before. There's plenty of mileage in that book but I think it will take a while to reach its peak.

 

The #871 did fare slightly better finishing at £11.01 (around $16.50) which seems to be at the higher end at the moment. Again, plenty of mileage in the book but I think this one will peak before #881.

 

In summary I think I should have pressed them and slabbed them as they would have fetched 9.8, and the census isn't exactly bulging with 9.8s of either book at the moment.

 

[seanfingh]

(2) Detective 871 (1st print) has a small print run of approximately 37K which is small for a DC Bat book. It is the first book that Scot Snyder wrote for Batman and has a classic cover.;

 

(3) Detective 880 is the first time Scot Snyder wrote a Joker story, it has a modest print run of 35K and an amazing cover by Jock. It may be my favorite Joker cover ever. While all three of these books have been getting some heat thanks to Death of the Family, I expect that they will get huge heat once that story gets in full swing and people realize how hard these books are becoming to find in top condition (particularly the 871 (2nd print).;

 

I just sold a copy of #871 and #880 first prints raw on eBay and they didn't perform anywhere near to where I thought they would. Both were NM+, and the #880 was the only copy on eBay UK at the time of listing, and it fetched £9.50 (around $14.25) whereas a copy listed as VF/NM ended at £16.00 (around $24) just 12 days before. There's plenty of mileage in that book but I think it will take a while to reach its peak.

 

The #871 did fare slightly better finishing at £11.01 (around $16.50) which seems to be at the higher end at the moment. Again, plenty of mileage in the book but I think this one will peak before #881.

 

In summary I think I should have pressed them and slabbed them as they would have fetched 9.8, and the census isn't exactly bulging with 9.8s of either book at the moment.

 

Kudos on minimizing your return.

[Mad Titan]

Daredevil #111 vol 1

 

why you think it will increase in value? 1st Silver Samurai (Kenuichio Harada) who will be in the new Wolverine movie

(%) probability that it will go up. 100%

what price do you think it will achieve? 20-40 for NM copies

how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term short term right up till the Wolverine movie comes out

additional notes: