THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[drbanner]

1 hour ago, Dark Knight said:

I think I also read years back about the issue of mc that CGC grades the book as if the mc is not there on a chipped book.  

This is pretty much correct for lower and mid-grade books where MC is definitely not downgraded for as much as a piece out and the reasoning was that MC is a "production defect".  It's a shame, but that's how CGC chose to do it and I bet they wish they could put that Genie back in the bottle.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

2 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

I did say that "eye appeal" is not factored into the structural grade however. 

Because it isn't.  

Eye appeal is also factored into the grade, again just not to the same degree that we might want it to be.

Any truth to the rumor that the new grading teams at CGC are now taking a harder stance when it comes to dust shadows / sun shadows, relative to how they were treated before? 

And this is in terms of the GA books, as opposed to the other newer comic book ages where books with sun or dust shadows were more likely to be looked upon with disfavor already. 

[Dark Knight]

So let me get this straight.  Lower graded books are not negatively affected by mc but books in mid to higher grades are depending on the degree of chipping?  Since Borock left CGC, does this still apply?

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

I actually agree with your analysis of how MC can affect grading on a sliding scale based on overall condition. 

I think these 2 words are most likely key to the entire discussion to do with Marvel chipping, but unfortunately it also allows CGC the opportunity to wobble all over the place since the measurement units are not fixed and probably shifting around a lot more than they really should. 

[nWo_22]

On 3/24/2017 at 5:58 PM, VintageComics said:

Now you're throwing all sorts of qualifiers into the discussion. 

Hulk #1 is picking up steam again. I have no idea what fraud you're talking about. The book legitimately jumped across the board, stabilized (and pulled back a bit in lower grades) and now is climbing again.

Anyhow, back to the discussion, this is what was said:

Sure enough, over the past 6 months you could have bought an AF #15, paid it off for 6 months and then resold it for a profit. 

You can add pre Robin Batman, Detective #38, Batman #1, Action #1, Detective #27, possibly TOS #39 and X-men #1 and Showcase #4 to that list. There are probably other books too but you get my point.

Does that mean you can do it every time? No, but certainly over the past year this seems to have been the case.

 

I did't say that second quote btw, so I am not sure how you quoted me on that.

Yes, Hulk #1 doubled from my plane ride back from WW Chicago August of 2014.  I literally had a Hulk #1 CGC 3.0 that was worth 5k full retail in Chicago when I took off from Chicago and landed in San Diego it was now worth 10k. 

Hulk #1 is always a hot book for sure but just look at chart with the out of nowhere more than doubling in less than a year. How do you explain that market premium? (2014-2015 it went nuts, before it settle back in late 2015-2016)

The doubling of the Hulk 1 in August 2014:

Edited March 28, 2017 by nWo_22

[VintageComics]

7 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Any truth to the rumor that the new grading teams at CGC are now taking a harder stance when it comes to dust shadows / sun shadows, relative to how they were treated before? 

And this is in terms of the GA books, as opposed to the other newer comic book ages where books with sun or dust shadows were more likely to be looked upon with disfavor already. 

They seem to be in consistent with dust shadows.

For example some of the Berk books in 9.2-9.4 had them.

I can't really comment with any great experience as the grading with tanning and dust shadows have always been the most difficult for me to figure out.

[VintageComics]

6 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

So let me get this straight.  Lower graded books are not negatively affected by mc but books in mid to higher grades are depending on the degree of chipping?  Since Borock left CGC, does this still apply?

Marvel Chipping is ALWAYS factored into the grade.

It just has a more negative effect in the higher grades.

As the grade drops, more defects are allowed in lower grades without the grade being affected.

For example, if you have a 3.0 book with some long creases, and you add another crease it doesn't necessarily downgrade the book because there are a lot of 'allowable defects' in the mid VG range.

But if you have enough accumulated defects any of those defects could lower the grade.

Again, each book is a case by case study.

[VintageComics]

6 hours ago, nWo_22 said:

Yes, Hulk #1 doubled from my plane ride back from WW Chicago August of 2014.  I literally had a Hulk #1 CGC 3.0 that was worth 5k full retail in Chicago when I took off from Chicago and landed in San Diego it was now worth 10k. 

Hulk #1 is always a hot book for sure but just look at chart with the out of nowhere more than doubling in less than a year. How do you explain that market premium? (2014-2015 it went nuts, before it settle back in late 2015-2016)

The doubling of the Hulk 1 in August 2014:

 

I've always noticed 2 different phenomena about sharply rising price.

Either

1) there is a lot of low grade and mid grade price build up making a foundation for higher grade copies, which if they don't come to market can seemingly 'explode' in price - making it look like it's a new record when in fact the market was ripe and ready for a high grade copy to hit the market.

I remember when I bought the X-men #1 CGC 9.4 Mound City copy, everyone was shocked that the book sold for $107K in 2009 because a copy had never sold for that price but I bid it up to that price feeling that this was the actual market price for this book at that time based on how lower grade copies had appreciated. So for me it wasn't a surprise.

Or, the other way it happens is

2) A big, high grade record triggers the market for a particular book and quickly it becomes much more sought after, driving up the price.

BB #28 in 9.0 did it a few years ago. What was seemingly forever a slow moving, $10,000 book (or less) sold for $30K, setting a panic in the market for people to find a copy before the price went out of reach. A 9.2 sold for $100K or thereabouts. Now you'd be lucky to find an 8.5 copy for under $40K.

AF #15 sold for $227K in a Comiclink sale in 2007 or 2008 and panic set in and the book exploded in price causing all lower grade copies to climb.

-----------------------------------------------

In this case, the CC Hulk #1 sale of $330K for a 9.2 opened people's eyes and started a price climb.

I'll admit that was an extremely sharp price jump on your chart, but there are a few things to remember about that data.

1) the book started moving in June 2014 when Metro made the big 9.2 sale, not in August. That really lit a fire under it. I was fortunate enough to buy a 9.0 copy in that month of June and when I shopped it around people laughed at my new price point and still wanted to buy the book for $110K (the old price point)

2) there where several other noteworthy sales of Hulk #1 after the 9.2 sale to establish the market. For example, Storms eventually sold my 9.0 copy for $178K in July. The people who laughed at the new price point all of a sudden wanted a shot at the 9.0 copy at the new price point. And there were multiple copies selling at the new 'price points' in various grades so by the time your 3.0 copies started selling, and the price info had trickled down to lower grade copies, it seemed like it was 'overnight' but it had been building for months.

3) it always takes a little time for the 'rising tide' to affect lower grade copies.

So while it looks like on your chart the 3.0 double in price during your flight, there was actually a lot happening in the market before it registered as a blip in lower grade copies.

 

Edited March 28, 2017 by VintageComics

[showcase22gr1959]

10 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

I've seen an af15 7.5 have mc

+1, I recall see and AF15 7.5 with chips also and it sat and sat unsold on Ebay for quite awhile.

[showcase22gr1959]

9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Any truth to the rumor that the new grading teams at CGC are now taking a harder stance when it comes to dust shadows / sun shadows, relative to how they were treated before? 

And this is in terms of the GA books, as opposed to the other newer comic book ages where books with sun or dust shadows were more likely to be looked upon with disfavor already. 

Tanning/Interior Tanning is getting hit more starting in early 2016.

[drbanner]

4 minutes ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

+1, I recall see and AF15 7.5 with chips also and it sat and sat unsold on Ebay for quite awhile.

Yep, you can look at the Heritage Archives to see examples of higher grade books (6+) with chipping. In this case, if the pieces missing were torn out, and not missing as a result of Marvel chipping (production defect), this book would NOT grade out at 7.5 as CGC has always been more lenient on "Marvel chips" than "missing pieces". 

[showcase22gr1959]

7 hours ago, nWo_22 said:

I did't say that second quote btw, so I am not sure how you quoted me on that.

Yes, Hulk #1 doubled from my plane ride back from WW Chicago August of 2014.  I literally had a Hulk #1 CGC 3.0 that was worth 5k full retail in Chicago when I took off from Chicago and landed in San Diego it was now worth 10k. 

Hulk #1 is always a hot book for sure but just look at chart with the out of nowhere more than doubling in less than a year. How do you explain that market premium? (2014-2015 it went nuts, before it settle back in late 2015-2016)

The doubling of the Hulk 1 in August 2014:

Thanks for the chart.  I recall during that period time, lots of folks were in a complete shock of Hulk 1 price upward gap. With the high prices, dealers and collectors with extra copies was flipping at higher prices. When more supplies came to the market, prices began to fall and stabilized...and gradual increase.  We'll see  if this correlate with the current momentum with AF15. Though I see, there is a stronger hands with AF15. There will be some bumps in the road, filling the gaps.

[showcase22gr1959]

6 minutes ago, drbanner said:

Yep, you can look at the Heritage Archives to see examples of higher grade books (6+) with chipping. In this case, if the pieces missing were torn out, and not missing as a result of Marvel chipping (production defect), this book would NOT grade out at 7.5 as CGC has always been more lenient on "Marvel chips" than "missing pieces". 

Yup, Heritage is a great place for high resolution scans. In this current stance, chips will not be taken lightly and true "Marvel chips" get a easier pass (more so before 2016).

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

When more supplies came to the market, prices began to fall and stabilized...and gradual increase.  We'll see  if this correlate with the current momentum with AF15. Though I see, there is a stronger hands with AF15. There will be some bumps in the road, filling the gaps.

As with all books, there have been slight pull backs after surging. That's a normal market behavior.

AF #15 pulled back several times after surging forward. As did BB #28 and Hulk #1.

And then all moved forward again once plateauing for a bit.

Hulk #1 and AF #15 seemed to be doing well in the last month with AF #15 continuing to lead the way and Hulk #1 also building strength after some weakness last Nov-Dec (record prices for CGC 8.5, 7.5 in the last CC auction and the Clink 7.0 sitting at $36K - about 10% over what they used to sell at). I'd guess a Hulk #1 in 8.0 should approach $100K at this point.

Showcase #4 seems to have plateaued a bit, at least at 7.5 with a$78K and $72K sale last year and the Clink $76K sale last month and the $84K sale of SC #4 8.0 last August.

[zhamlau]

I think a true test of this books value will be to see how a superior graded copy sells when it has nearly ever negative going against it outside of grade.

http://www.comiclink.com/Auctions/item.asp?back=%2FComicTrack%2FAuctions%2Fbids.asp&id=1171202

This book ends tonight, its at 26k right now.

1. CBCS not CGC

2. Below average page quality

3. Strong marvel chipping and pre-chipping.

4. Decent eye appeal with detractors as mentioned, but not outstanding.

 

 

those 4 will be weighing on this book and its final price. How this book does will tell a lot about the price/value of this book. It has no realistic upgrade potential, Chipping, and doesn't have outstanding eye appeal (nice red though).  If this thing goes 41k or higher, yeah this book evolved this isnt one offs and bubbles (in my opinion).  Its in a well known auction house with a strong track record of sales on this book and books in general. Lets see how capt average flys.

[showcase22gr1959]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

As with all books, there have been slight pull backs after surging. That's a normal market behavior.

AF #15 pulled back several times after surging forward. As did BB #28 and Hulk #1.

And then all moved forward again once plateauing for a bit.

Hulk #1 and AF #15 seemed to be doing well in the last month with AF #15 continuing to lead the way and Hulk #1 also building strength after some weakness last Nov-Dec (record prices for CGC 8.5, 7.5 in the last CC auction and the Clink 7.0 sitting at $36K - about 10% over what they used to sell at). I'd guess a Hulk #1 in 8.0 should approach $100K at this point.

Showcase #4 seems to have plateaued a bit, at least at 7.5 with a$78K and $72K sale last year and the Clink $76K sale last month and the $84K sale of SC #4 8.0 last August.

That definitely sums it on all those books you mention. Though I think if the SC4 8.0 WP was offered in an auction format, it would have performed better. Currently, SC4 and BB28 prices has stabilized and a hold.

[showcase22gr1959]

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

I think a true test of this books value will be to see how a superior graded copy sells when it has nearly ever negative going against it outside of grade.

http://www.comiclink.com/Auctions/item.asp?back=%2FComicTrack%2FAuctions%2Fbids.asp&id=1171202

This book ends tonight, its at 26k right now.

1. CBCS not CGC

2. Below average page quality

3. Strong marvel chipping and pre-chipping.

4. Decent eye appeal with detractors as mentioned, but not outstanding.

 

 

those 4 will be weighing on this book and its final price. How this book does will tell a lot about the price/value of this book. It has no realistic upgrade potential, Chipping, and doesn't have outstanding eye appeal (nice red though).  If this thing goes 41k or higher, yeah this book evolved this isnt one offs and bubbles (in my opinion).  Its in a well known auction house with a strong track record of sales on this book and books in general. Lets see how capt average flys.

I agree, if it was being a CGC copy, it would perform better. It's going to be a record for a 5.5 for the other company.  I wouldn't call this copy strong MC, for I've seen worst in a 6.0 holder. But then again, there are other dis-tractors as you mentioned.

Edited March 28, 2017 by showcase22gr1959

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I've always noticed 2 different phenomena about sharply rising price.

Either

1) there is a lot of low grade and mid grade price build up making a foundation for higher grade copies, which if they don't come to market can seemingly 'explode' in price - making it look like it's a new record when in fact the market was ripe and ready for a high grade copy to hit the market.

 

Or, the other way it happens is

2) A big, high grade record triggers the market for a particular book and quickly it becomes much more sought after, driving up the price.

 

3) it always takes a little time for the 'rising tide' to affect lower grade copies.

So while it looks like on your chart the 3.0 double in price during your flight, there was actually a lot happening in the market before it registered as a blip in lower grade copies.

Roy;

I believe your analysis here is bang on when it comes to how prices rise over time in the vintage collectibles comic book market. 

I believe this CC Auction will show the pent up demand for the early Supes Action covers as they take a big jump upwards to do some catching up to the pre-Robin 'Tec's which have been on fire during the past couple of years. 

Sorry for the GA segue in this AF 15 thread, but the analogy in terms of price movements are the same in both cases. 

Edited March 28, 2017 by lou_fine

[cloudofwit]

15 hours ago, Jordysnordy said:

How's this for a sale on HA last night - missing back cover and last 2 pages yet still sets a new GPA high (granted the front cover is really nice)

 

Thank you for posting this sale. I was just about to comment on being surprised that the CGC 0.5 copy on ComicLink that ends tonight is above 5K now, which, considering one page is missing and another page has panels cut out, seems rather crazy. And this Heritage copy does indeed have very nice cover appeal, but 6K for a copy with missing pages--and NO back cover! Pure mania.

Are sales of .5s below 5K--regardless of being complete or not--becoming a thing of the past? Hard not to obsess on pricing when things are this extreme, even in the absolute basement grade...

[SC22]

2 hours ago, cloudofwit said:

Thank you for posting this sale. I was just about to comment on being surprised that the CGC 0.5 copy on ComicLink that ends tonight is above 5K now, which, considering one page is missing and another page has panels cut out, seems rather crazy. And this Heritage copy does indeed have very nice cover appeal, but 6K for a copy with missing pages--and NO back cover! Pure mania.

Are sales of .5s below 5K--regardless of being complete or not--becoming a thing of the past? Hard not to obsess on pricing when things are this extreme, even in the absolute basement grade...

Here is another 15 CGC 0.5 that ends tonight so far it's at 5200$ so I would say sales at 5000$ are a thing of the past.

http://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAuctions%2Fsearch.asp%3FFocusedOnly%3D1%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3Damazing%2Bfantasy%2B15%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1172372&id=1172372

Edited March 28, 2017 by SupergirlDC19591