THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[delekkerste]

On 5/29/2017 at 0:20 AM, Gotham Kid said:

paging delekkerste

I don't know what to say.  First he says that it's never different, and then he goes on to explain his theory of a paradigm shift and how the world has never seen anything like this before (i.e., it IS different this time).  And then talking about generals leading and such, disregarding the fact that risk and return are inversely correlated, which should mean that AF #15, the bluest of the blue chippers, should most definitely NOT be providing outsized returns at this point in time, unless one believes that the book - perhaps the most scrutinized in the entire hobby - has somehow been systematically and chronically underpriced for years/decades.

Let's just call these rationalizations for what they are:  symptoms of a bubble.  As if people didn't figure out that non-Marvel chipped copies and copies with greater eye appeal traded at a premium before this year.  As if we haven't already had 5 big budget Spidey films with full knowledge of more on the way.  As if everyone hasn't realized since 2009 that Disney is the owner and caretaker of Marvel.  Give me a break. 

Edited May 31, 2017 by delekkerste

[VintageComics]

11 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

12 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

i know everyone's talked about the 8.0 but the 5.0($53k), 4.0 ss ($27K) all had super strong numbers

That's now two 5.0 results that make the $61k someone just paid for the 6.5 in the last CC auction look "cheap".

That's also 2 x 5.0 copies that unquestionably looked exceptional for the grade.

Unexceptional copies don't seem to be selling for the same record numbers.

Is the 8.0 upgradeable? I have no idea. I asked for large scans to take a look at the book closely and never got them.

[october]

27 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I don't know what to say.  First he says that it's never different, and then he goes on to explain his theory of a paradigm shift and how the world has never seen anything like this before (i.e., it IS different this time).  And then talking about generals leading and such, disregarding the fact that risk and return are inversely correlated, which should mean that AF #15, the bluest of the blue chippers, should most definitely NOT be providing outsized returns at this point in time, unless one believes that the book - perhaps the most scrutinized in the entire hobby - has somehow been systematically and chronically underpriced for years/decades.

Let's just call these rationalizations for what they are:  symptoms of a bubble.  As if people didn't figure out that non-Marvel chipped copies and copies with greater eye appeal traded at a premium before this year.  As if we haven't already had 5 big budget Spidey films with full knowledge of more on the way.  As if everyone hasn't realized since 2009 that Disney is the owner and caretaker of Marvel.  Give me a break. 

This reminds me of the Hulk 1 runup a few years back, also seemingly triggered by nothing in particular. I don't know what the story was then, and I don't know what the story is now, but when books double in price over a span of a few months for effectively no reason it's time to tread carefully.  

[Gotham Kid]

10 minutes ago, october said:

42 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I don't know what to say.  First he says that it's never different, and then he goes on to explain his theory of a paradigm shift and how the world has never seen anything like this before (i.e., it IS different this time).  And then talking about generals leading and such, disregarding the fact that risk and return are inversely correlated, which should mean that AF #15, the bluest of the blue chippers, should most definitely NOT be providing outsized returns at this point in time, unless one believes that the book - perhaps the most scrutinized in the entire hobby - has somehow been systematically and chronically underpriced for years/decades.

Let's just call these rationalizations for what they are:  symptoms of a bubble.  As if people didn't figure out that non-Marvel chipped copies and copies with greater eye appeal traded at a premium before this year.  As if we haven't already had 5 big budget Spidey films with full knowledge of more on the way.  As if everyone hasn't realized since 2009 that Disney is the owner and caretaker of Marvel.  Give me a break. 

This reminds me of the Hulk 1 runup a few years back, also seemingly triggered by nothing in particular. I don't know what the story was then, and I don't know what the story is now, but when books double in price over a span of a few months for effectively no reason it's time to tread carefully.  

+1 and +1

Edited May 31, 2017 by Gotham Kid

[G.A.tor]

52 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I don't know what to say.  First he says that it's never different, and then he goes on to explain his theory of a paradigm shift and how the world has never seen anything like this before (i.e., it IS different this time).  And then talking about generals leading and such, disregarding the fact that risk and return are inversely correlated, which should mean that AF #15, the bluest of the blue chippers, should most definitely NOT be providing outsized returns at this point in time, unless one believes that the book - perhaps the most scrutinized in the entire hobby - has somehow been systematically and chronically underpriced for years/decades.

Let's just call these rationalizations for what they are:  symptoms of a bubble.  As if people didn't figure out that non-Marvel chipped copies and copies with greater eye appeal traded at a premium before this year.  As if we haven't already had 5 big budget Spidey films with full knowledge of more on the way.  As if everyone hasn't realized since 2009 that Disney is the owner and caretaker of Marvel.  Give me a break. 

sums up my perspective pretty well

ultimately:

cheerleaders ...cheer

naysayers...negate

analysts...analyze

the market will move and correct as it should (all variables play "their" role)

[zhamlau]

This thread is interesting because of whats being said and whats not.  I am someone (some say simple lol) who likes clear concise bullet points so i often times boil things to them to cut down on the background noise. I like things to make sense, because in reality they always do as long as you know enough of the facts.

What (I think) I know:

1. General consensus: This is an acute fast developing price bubble

• To what extent/percentage that bubble is effecting price: no consensus.
• Cause of this recent high speed bubble: unknown

2. This price bubble has effected all graded copies

• Copies without significant/noticeable marvel chipping are on the top end of this spike, surpassing superior graded copies with noticeable chipping
• CGC copies are the only ones truly being effected (as of now).
• Structure/back cover issues do not seem to have much of an adverse effect on the price affected books. PQ and Back cover issues are relatively minor considerations for the effected books.

3. Many of these sales prices are not showing up in GPA, so its ability to be tracked has been more challenging.

4. The population of CGC graded copies is hard to judge so rarity in grade is hard to determine

• Copies cracked/pressed/reslabbed are not recorded as far as i can see so many of those 1666 graded universals are duplicates
• CGC does not sort data by defect, so you cant see how many copies are white pages or have marvel chipping on them. They effect desirability but how many copies of each cant be quantified at this time.

What I would LIKE to know:

1. If/When there is a correction in pricing what will that look like?

• Will all gains in those books be reset to 2016 prices or lower? Or will the high run up have a permanent effect on the books price (it cant fall enough to offset its gains basically)
• Why is this bubble occurring right now? What happened in the last 6-8 months that didn't happen in the years previous?

2. Will this dramatic price increase have an effect on related silver age mega-key marvels?

 

Anyway that's my thoughts on this, Mostly questions lol. I don't know how normal this entire phenomena is for the market. Other than referencing a Hulk 1 price run up, this appears to be somewhat unique pricing wise. What I would also like to see if a list of all the record auction prices of the last 6 months since most don't appear to be on GPA. would be nice to see the list of those recent bubble type pricing and see how they correlate grade/defect wise.

[Straw-Man]

here's my 5.0 rt. edge with nary a marvel chip!!!!!!!!!!!!

[G.A.tor]

I find lots of different camps, obviously, out there...these are a few I have identified (though by no means inclusive of every owner of the book...too many variables)

you have the "forever" collector...and by "forever", I mean is honestly not concerned with value of the book...they don't care what the market is on the book, because they aren't selling (nor are they interested in buying a copy, because they've had theirs "Forever")

you have the "new wave " collector...they seem keenly interested in the value, want it to go up, up , up, because they collect with some level of investment or realization of value of their book, but they enjoy the book and probably aren't selling (right now)...if they haven't bought yet, they seem "desperate" to get a copy before the next price jump

you have the investor collector...they strictly buy with investment motivation...they almost get sweaty palms as each new auction ends...most of these try to "pump" the market at every opportunity (and why not, they are motivated)

you have the dealer (who may or may not collect).... folks that buy and sell and try to do it profitably...these folks have to be aware of the market (moving in both directions), and react...hard to stay neutral, but outside of their own inventory, really have little to no influence on the market (no matter how many copies they buy and sell)

just some random thoughts...I might be wrong on all!

[silverweb]

13 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

i know everyone's talked about the 8.0 but the 5.0($53k), 4.0 ss ($27K) all had super strong numbers

Wow, I thought that the last 5.0 sale was $29.5 according to GPA.  But $53K is incredible!  Were they on an auction that GPA does not track?  Shouldn't  GPA get on the ball?

I want to see those $53K AF 5.0s!

[gadzukes]

30 minutes ago, silverweb said:

Wow, I thought that the last 5.0 sale was $29.5 according to GPA.  But $53K is incredible!  Were they on an auction that GPA does not track?  Shouldn't  GPA get on the ball?

I want to see those $53K AF 5.0s!

I like GPA, and use it a lot, but..... without CL & CC data, GPA has effectively been neutered. 

[Straw-Man]

i believe cc data goes over there.

[zhamlau]

3 minutes ago, Straw-Man said:

i believe cc data goes over there.

it seems to be missing a lot of CC sales though. I wish they would just manually update the list with their sales. Its public record.

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, october said:

This reminds me of the Hulk 1 runup a few years back, also seemingly triggered by nothing in particular. I don't know what the story was then, and I don't know what the story is now, but when books double in price over a span of a few months for effectively no reason it's time to tread carefully.

Some books have unique dynamics in some areas.

Hulk #1's unique dynamic is it's the toughest of all big Marvel keys in high grade with a sole 9.4 being the highest.

So when a 2nd highest graded 9.2 shook loose in 2014 it jumped hard. I assume that's what it took to shake it loose, and that pulled up lower copies. That's a very normal market dynamic that we've seen over and over. 

[VintageComics]

32 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

46 minutes ago, silverweb said:

Wow, I thought that the last 5.0 sale was $29.5 according to GPA.  But $53K is incredible!  Were they on an auction that GPA does not track?  Shouldn't  GPA get on the ball?

I want to see those $53K AF 5.0s!

I like GPA, and use it a lot, but..... without CL & CC data, GPA has effectively been neutered. 

CC supplies GPA with data but it's not immediate.

[october]

7 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Some books have unique dynamics in some areas.

Hulk #1's unique dynamic is it's the toughest of all big Marvel keys in high grade with a sole 9.4 being the highest.

So when a 2nd highest graded 9.2 shook loose in 2014 it jumped hard. I assume that's what it took to shake it loose, and that pulled up lower copies. That's a very normal market dynamic that we've seen over and over. 

I don't agree, but not going to get into it here. 

[VintageComics]

2 minutes ago, october said:

I don't agree, but not going to get into it here. 

No worries.  Just my perception.

Same thing happened when the Mound City X-men #1 CGC 9.4 went for $107K in 2009. Everyone was shocked but I was the high bidder, bidding for someone else and felt $100K was the right price based on my understanding of the market dynamics at the time.

Shortly after the MC X #1 9.4 sold it started to trickle down to lower grade copies, which started to climb.

There just hadn't been an X-men #! in 9.4 on the market in some time before that (non listed on GPA pre 2009).

[october]

12 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

No worries.  Just my perception.

Same thing happened when the Mound City X-men #1 CGC 9.4 went for $107K in 2009. Everyone was shocked but I was the high bidder, bidding for someone else and felt $100K was the right price based on my understanding of the market dynamics at the time.

Shortly after the MC X #1 9.4 sold it started to trickle down to lower grade copies, which started to climb.

There just hadn't been an X-men #! in 9.4 on the market in some time before that (non listed on GPA pre 2009).

Lower/mid-grade X-Men 1s didn't bounce in 2009 at all though (or any other year, really), let alone approach the nuttiness of the Hulk 1 and AF 15 sales in their respective years. Just normal price appreciation. 

Edited May 31, 2017 by october

[Gotham Kid]

1 hour ago, G.A.tor said:

I find lots of different camps, obviously, out there...these are a few I have identified (though by no means inclusive of every owner of the book...too many variables)

you have the "forever" collector...and by "forever", I mean is honestly not concerned with value of the book...they don't care what the market is on the book, because they aren't selling (nor are they interested in buying a copy, because they've had theirs "Forever")

you have the "new wave " collector...they seem keenly interested in the value, want it to go up, up , up, because they collect with some level of investment or realization of value of their book, but they enjoy the book and probably aren't selling (right now)...if they haven't bought yet, they seem "desperate" to get a copy before the next price jump

you have the investor collector...they strictly buy with investment motivation...they almost get sweaty palms as each new auction ends...most of these try to "pump" the market at every opportunity (and why not, they are motivated)

you have the dealer (who may or may not collect).... folks that buy and sell and try to do it profitably...these folks have to be aware of the market (moving in both directions), and react...hard to stay neutral, but outside of their own inventory, really have little to no influence on the market (no matter how many copies they buy and sell)

just some random thoughts...I might be wrong on all!

Sums it up nicely. May have a difference in opinion on the last point though but ok.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Gotham Kid

[Spiderturtle]

2 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

sums up my perspective pretty well

ultimately:

cheerleaders ...cheer

naysayers...negate

analysts...analyze

the market will move and correct as it should (all variables play "their" role)

I'm in the cheerleader camp but i'm also sad that prices have bumped up so much that it be hard to get future copies.  Might end up resorting to the 0.5-1.5 range.   The days when 5.0s were less than $10k.......

[Sam I am]

16 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

I'm in the cheerleader camp but i'm also sad that prices have bumped up so much that it be hard to get future copies.  Might end up resorting to the 0.5-1.5 range.   The days when 5.0s were less than $10k.......

I'm thinking of listing my 4.5 in the sales forum.