THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Dark Knight]

25 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

That'll work DK. Thanks.

No problem 

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

3 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Of course they are.

Because the perception is that this is the new market baseline for AF #15.

Like I said a few weeks ago, if the market accepts those 3 record sales as the new baseline all prices will rise.

My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

Not necessarily the new market baseline because it is not absolute.  There are a bunch of books that have set market baselines in the past, but each succeeding sale, the price sold for less than predicted or less than what it last sold for.  The record sale prices you pointed out are primarily uber high grades where there are less copies in the census than lower graded copies.  What I am seeing is an major uptick in price in practically every grade so far on high and low grades.  

Don't believe the market has fully accepted those 3 record sales from the last CC auction as the new baseline.

This is based upon the fact that there have been a few sales of AF 15's after the last CC auction and if I remember correctly, not a single one of them even came close to matching the CC auction results on a Price Per Point basis.  And now that we have the next CC auction with some nice AF 15's in them again, only now are we starting to see record prices again.

Not sure if this means it is the quality of the individual AF 15's on a more micro basis, or if is the CC auction house venue on a macro basis, or more than likely, probably a combination of both that are producing the record prices. 

[VintageComics]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Don't believe the market has fully accepted those 3 record sales from the last CC auction as the new baseline.

This is based upon the fact that there have been a few sales of AF 15's after the last CC auction and if I remember correctly, not a single one of them even came close to matching the CC auction results on a Price Per Point basis.  And now that we have the next CC auction with some nice AF 15's in them again, only now are we starting to see record prices again.

Not sure if this means it is the quality of the individual AF 15's on a more micro basis, or if is the CC auction house venue on a macro basis, or more than likely, probably a combination of both that are producing the record prices. 

You know, maybe 'baseline' is the wrong word.

Instead of calling it a baseline, I will call it a new surge forward. The new surge forward was caused by the 3 (or so) record prices in the CC auction.

Right after the CC auction, sellers on eBay (and other dealers who were using the CC auction as a data point) to re-evaluate their pricing strategy creating a surge in prices across the market and forcing new willing buyers to pony up more than they would have pre CC auction.

And some would even state the reason for the new prices as being the CC auction.

But the fact that some of the record prices were due to the CC books being exceptional copies was not stated.

Edited April 19, 2017 by VintageComics

[Jaydogrules]

58 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

You know, maybe 'baseline' is the wrong word.

Instead of calling it a baseline, I will call it a new surge forward. The new surge forward was caused by the 3 (or so) record prices in the CC auction.

Right after the CC auction, sellers on eBay (and other dealers who were using the CC auction as a data point) to re-evaluate their pricing strategy creating a surge in prices across the market and forcing new willing buyers to pony up more than they would have pre CC auction.

And some would even state the reason for the new prices as being the CC auction.

But the fact that some of the record prices were due to the CC books being exceptional copies was not stated.

This wont be true, no matter how many times you state it. 

-J.

[VintageComics]

15 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

You know, maybe 'baseline' is the wrong word.

Instead of calling it a baseline, I will call it a new surge forward. The new surge forward was caused by the 3 (or so) record prices in the CC auction.

Right after the CC auction, sellers on eBay (and other dealers who were using the CC auction as a data point) to re-evaluate their pricing strategy creating a surge in prices across the market and forcing new willing buyers to pony up more than they would have pre CC auction.

And some would even state the reason for the new prices as being the CC auction.

But the fact that some of the record prices were due to the CC books being exceptional copies was not stated.

This wont be true, no matter how many times you state it. 

You're absolutely right.

A simple, forensic look at the evidence makes it true.

There were books in the auction that didn't set record prices because they weren't exceptional for the grade or upgradeable.

That is  evidence that any intellectually honest person would accept and base their evaluation.

Check and mate.

Bye.

[gadzukes]

Is GPA basically obsolete without the CC data?

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

You're absolutely right.

A simple, forensic look at the evidence makes it true.

There were books in the auction that didn't set record prices because they weren't exceptional for the grade or upgradeable.

That is  evidence that any intellectually honest person would accept and base their evaluation.

Check and mate.

Bye.

I notice a lot of nice boardies tend to tap dance around when they disagree with you about something, even as you condescend to them in that funny way that you do. 

So I'm not going to be nice.  

Because you're just wrong.  

Anyone with a GPA account can see what actually did trigger this price spike.  It was the twin sales of a 9.4 for $454k in February and the 9.2 for $392k in March of last year .

Those are in fact what got people talking about AF 15s again, what broke records and made the headlines in the comic book community.  And yeah, it was a whole lot like what happened with the two high Hulk 1 sales from a couple years ago that triggered a run and massive price spike in Hulk 1s.  It is utterly irrelevant how many hulk 1s in high grade there are in comparison to AF 15.  First, Spider-Man is an infinitely more popular and in demand character than the Hulk.  Period.  Second, uber high grade AF 15s rarely come to market either.   So the triggers are most certainly comparable and are also a more plausible and realistic explanation for a price spike than a few nice presenting mid grade copies selling in one auction just last month.  

How do we know those two high AF sales from last year were the real trigger?   Because subsequent to those sales, the next series of sales that continued people talking about AF 15s were the series of $50k+ sales of 6.5's that occurred between June and November of 2016, that occurred across at least two different auction venues (not just CC). 

These high 6.5 sales of course then triggered the (at the time) record sale of a 7.5 for $85k in August, 2016 which then triggered the record sale of a 7.0 for $65k in November 2016. 

Ghostown's sale of his 9.2 on comiclink for $460k in January 2017 and the sale of the CGC 8.5 copy in February 2017 for  $155k on Heritage is what really got things started this year and got the market into overdrive which directly fed into those strong auction results in March for the CC copies that you keep going on about (none of which are really "upgradeable", and certainly not to the extent that they would have an FMV at even today's prices if someone were to actually attempt something as foolish and futile as that).  The continuation of high sales that we are seeing is simply the cumulative snowball effect of  numerous high dollar sales, that have created an atmosphere of panic buying from people who don't want to be priced out of even lower grade copies.  Obviously, the nicer presenting copies are realizing the strongest sales.  However we certainly have more than enough data and sales at this point to reasonably conclude that there most certainly is a new price point for AF 15s and we will continue to see it (as we did with hulk 1 two years ago and SC 4 last year. 

Sorry, but your sweeping generalisations, personal opinions, broad speculations, and thinly veiled insults are not "forensics".  

-J.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[namisgr]

35 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

Is GPA basically obsolete without the CC data?

I thought ComicConnect sales were recorded in GPA?

 

Regardless of whether they are or aren't, GPA has never been a reliable indicator for major keys. 

[Sam I am]

3 minutes ago, namisgr said:

I thought ComicConnect sales were recorded in GPA?

 

Regardless of whether they are or aren't, GPA has never been a reliable indicator for major keys. 

Well, it is a reliable, lagging indicator.....

[Jordysnordy]

ComicLink doesn't report to GPA - which is a shame since they sell a ton of books. (anyone know why they don't report). If all the big auctions houses would report their sales to GPA it would potentially help us all keep better track of everything and perhaps help for better analysis of the data (of course we won't know about private sales)

[gadzukes]

20 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

ComicLink doesn't report to GPA - which is a shame since they sell a ton of books. (anyone know why they don't report). If all the big auctions houses would report their sales to GPA it would potentially help us all keep better track of everything and perhaps help for better analysis of the data (of course we won't know about private sales)

The AF15 CC prices are SO much higher than what's recorded in GPA.  I like GPA and am subscribed to it, but it's becoming more like the OSG for accurate pricing. 

[VintageComics]

36 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

Is GPA basically obsolete without the CC data?

As always, GPA is only a guide and only as good as how you interpret the data (and as good as the data that is supplied)

For example, if people are hitting BINs on eBay to spike GPA data but not paying for books that isn't real sales data.

3 minutes ago, namisgr said:

I thought ComicConnect sales were recorded in GPA?

They haven't submitted their numbers for that auction yet, I'm assuming.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

@Jaydogrules, sorry but anybody who knows the market knows that the $450K sale in 9.4 was not an anomaly or a surprise that would cause a surge in price.

The 9.4 sale @ $450K may have been a record at the time but it was expected by anybody who had reasonable market expectations.  There was already a precedent of high grade AF #15 sales both privately and publicly.  In fact, Metropolis had a WTB paying that much for AF #15 well before the Heritage auction topped out at $450K. So how could it be a surprise that sent the markets surging?

In fact, if you read this thread there was some disappointment that it 'only' ended at $450K. 

Nor was the 8.5 sale @ $150K a big surprise. AF #15 was already a $125K book in 8.5 more than 4 years ago. I know because I tried to buy one at that time.

And there was a Voldemart CBCS 9.0 sale @ $240K

So the expectation of a 9.2 hitting $350K was already established.

I question the validity of the $392K sale because it was submitted by Pedigree and Doug has a habit of bolstering sale value with heightened trade value. But yes, it is on GPA so the general public will accept it as such.

And I do agree that Barton's CGC 9.2 $450 sale was a strong number but would also argue that it was the real anomaly as a 9.4 was available for the same price a few months earlier.

--------------------------------

In comparison, the Hulk #1 9.2 sale @ $330 was unexpected as there was no precedent to establish it. There was only extreme rarity in grade to drive the price.

--------------------------------

But even in light of those number and last years mid year surge (AF #15 seems to surge every year) you are still moving the goal posts.

This new surge is entirely based on the record prices of 3 copies that set record numbers at the CC auction.  And the main point of my argument is that

• all 3 copies were exceptional for the grade - the unexceptional copies sold for regular numbers in the same auction
• those copies may have all been improvable (I know the 4.5 looked to be and was in an old label holder, I'm certain the 9.0 was as I studied it in hand and I'm fairly certain the 5.0 copy will be as well)
• the general public doesn't take the fact that these 3 copies were exceptional for the grade into account - they only see grades and prices, as witnessed by the eBay sellers bumping their prices and referencing these auctions specifically.

And the last point is the most important one.

Asking prices shifted, WTB requests increased (and the amount of PMs I received looking for AF #15 were at an all time high) - ALL AFTER THE CC AUCTIONS ENDED.

How anyone can argue these points is beyond me. I won't bother arguing any further. I've made my points and would bet the house that I'm right.

[entalmighty1]

9 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

ComicLink doesn't report to GPA - which is a shame since they sell a ton of books. (anyone know why they don't report). If all the big auctions houses would report their sales to GPA it would potentially help us all keep better track of everything and perhaps help for better analysis of the data (of course we won't know about private sales)

Owner of CLink wanted to report selectively, not completely.  Basically wanted to share a few record breaking transactions instead of everything.  Incomplete data is more dangerous than no data, in my opinion.

[SC22]

48 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

I notice a lot of nice boardies tend to tap dance around when they disagree with you about something, even as you condescend to them in that funny way that you do. 

So I'm not going to be nice.  

Because you're just wrong.  

Anyone with a GPA account can see what actually did trigger this price spike.  It was the twin sales of a 9.4 for $454k in February and the 9.2 for $392k in March of last year .

Those are in fact what got people talking about AF 15s again, what broke records and made the headlines in the comic book community.  And yeah, it was a whole lot like what happened with the two high Hulk 1 sales from a couple years ago that triggered a run and massive price spike in Hulk 1s.  It is utterly irrelevant how many hulk 1s in high grade there are in comparison to AF 15.  First, Spider-Man is an infinitely more popular and in demand character than the Hulk.  Period.  Second, uber high grade AF 15s rarely come to market either.   So the triggers are most certainly comparable and are also a more plausible and realistic explanation for a price spike than a few nice presenting mid grade copies selling in one auction just last month.  

How do we know those two high AF sales from last year were the real trigger?   Because subsequent to those sales, the next series of sales that continued people talking about AF 15s were the series of $50k+ sales of 6.5's that occurred between June and November of 2016, that occurred across at least two different auction venues (not just CC). 

These high 6.5 sales of course then triggered the (at the time) record sale of a 7.5 for $85k in August, 2016 which then triggered the record sale of a 7.0 for $65k in November 2016. 

Ghostown's sale of his 9.2 on comiclink for $460k in January 2017 and the sale of the CGC 8.5 copy in February 2017 for  $155k on Heritage is what really got things started this year and got the market into overdrive which directly fed into those strong auction results in March for the CC copies that you keep going on about (none of which are really "upgradeable", and certainly not to the extent that they would have an FMV at even today's prices if someone were to actually attempt something as foolish and futile as that).  The continuation of high sales that we are seeing is simply the cumulative snowball effect of  numerous high dollar sales, that have created an atmosphere of panic buying from people who don't want to be priced out of even lower grade copies.  Obviously, the nicer presenting copies are realizing the strongest sales.  However we certainly have more than enough data and sales at this point to reasonably conclude that there most certainly is a new price point for AF 15s and we will continue to see it (as we did with hulk 1 two years ago and SC 4 last year. 

Sorry, but your sweeping generalisations, personal opinions, broad speculations, and thinly veiled insults are not "forensics".  

-J.

Spot on!!

[Dick Pontoon]

13 hours ago, Iceman399 said:

Apparently the new boards don't track name changes

Sure they do. Just go to the user's profile.

[Jordysnordy]

4 minutes ago, Pontoon said:

Sure they do. Just go to the user's profile.

He means in the record strikes and name changes forum - there hasn't been a post made there since Jan 31.

[G.A.tor]

I saw a bunch of "price changes" recently on ebay, post the recent CC sales...folks with 5.0's went from pricing on ebay in the 30's, to the 50's, quoting the "cr/ow" copy that just sold for $...

and they did it for the 4.5 as well (and likely will for the 4.0 currently)...

those HG sales of last year and early this year are also a component of the pricing surge...

the market is very reactive to these types of results and ALL the factors get built into asking prices, which subsequently lead to recorded sales (private or public)...

that said, I still maintain that this "excessive" exponential growth is not good for the long term health (whether it is a valid growth or not)... but, the market will determine equilibrium regardless of what I think

[Jordysnordy]

How about CL listing a 1.0 for 11K today?

[Jaydogrules]

42 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I saw a bunch of "price changes" recently on ebay, post the recent CC sales...folks with 5.0's went from pricing on ebay in the 30's, to the 50's, quoting the "cr/ow" copy that just sold for $...

and they did it for the 4.5 as well (and likely will for the 4.0 currently)...

those HG sales of last year and early this year are also a component of the pricing surge...

the market is very reactive to these types of results and ALL the factors get built into asking prices, which subsequently lead to recorded sales (private or public)...

that said, I still maintain that this "excessive" exponential growth is not good for the long term health (whether it is a valid growth or not)... but, the market will determine equilibrium regardless of what I think

Yes, when the price surge that started last year in the higher grades started trickling down to the lower/mid grades  (the bulk of the grades of the copies typically offered on ebay), eBay sellers adjusted their prices accordingly.  That CC auction didn't start or trigger anything, those results were just a continuation of strong results that started over a year ago.

-J.

 

Edited April 19, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[ProcessedMeatMan]

26 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

How about CL listing a 1.0 for 11K today?

It's also on Ebay for $10k. 

Are CL fees higher than Ebay?