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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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Started by HarveySwick,

14,481 posts in this topic

Spiderturtle

Spiderturtle

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

ok, so we have seen multiple auctions now with a pretty consistent story being told: This book is somehow now worth much more than it was last year. Proportions and scale can be argued, but the narrative cant be. My question is simply this, why? That's what we all seem to be dancing around. Some have theories that its books that are upgrade-able, some have theories its the market catching up all at once, among a host of other reasons.

Question is simple: Why are we seeing these prices jump? We have now like 7-8 examples across multiple platforms of very difficult to square prices occurring, its clearly happening, so why is it?

Some of the books are not upgradeable.  The 8.0 isn't upgradeable based on grader notes.   The 8.0 buyer obviously thinks he won't be able to purchase another 8.0.  Might just be an outlier sale.  Only thing i can think is the 2009 analogy.  There was a big upswing during that period and pullback afterwards. 

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david99

david99

Posted
Posted (edited)

I am gonna venture a guess that it is because the BETA on Amazing Fantasy 15 is very HIGH

The inherent "supply and demand" characteristics of fantasy 15 ebb and flow based on popularity and speculation 

Right now, certain assets are behaving based on excess speculation in the economy. Very similar to how bitcoin and alt cryptos are behaving right now

 

Edited by david99
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namisgr

namisgr

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, zhamlau said:

ok, so we have seen multiple auctions now with a pretty consistent story being told: This book is somehow now worth much more than it was last year. Proportions and scale can be argued, but the narrative cant be. My question is simply this, why? That's what we all seem to be dancing around. Some have theories that its books that are upgrade-able, some have theories its the market catching up all at once, among a host of other reasons.

Question is simple: Why are we seeing these prices jump? We have now like 7-8 examples across multiple platforms of very difficult to square prices occurring, its clearly happening, so why is it?

Speculation, just like what drives all bubbles.

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da.amazing.spiderman

da.amazing.spiderman

Posted
Posted

 

Normally, I'm just a lurker and prefer to keep my opinions to myself.

However, this talk of a "bubble" in the comic market and the concerns over the pricing of AF #15 has me itching to add my two cents to this discussion.

Okay, though some of you might disagree, I've lived long enough to learn (the hard way) that the (4) most detrimental words to your wealth that those in power (Your Banker, Your Broker, Your Politician, Your Realtor, Your Mortgage Company, Your Government) want you to believe are these...

"This Time it's Different"

Gang...It's NEVER different. The bigger the boom...The bigger the bust!!!

I have no doubt that if we continue on our current trajectory of price escalation, the comic market will eventually tank / bust.

However, let's not let fear of the possible market bust prevent us from enjoying this bull ride while our beloved comic market is kicking .  

So, if we don't allow fear to control our decision, but instead utilize logic, then there are (2) important questions you should be asking yourself.

1)  Why has the comic market gone ballistic???
2)  How far / where are we in this bull market comic cycle???  Perhaps more importantly to this AF #15 board, should I be concerned about the dramatic price escalation of AF #15 across all grades.

The answer to the first question (why has the comic market gone ballistic) is very simple.  It's called a paradigm shift.  Whenever and wherever a paradigm shift occurs (doesn't matter what industry or market), a great amount of money can be made and / or lost (depending on your point of entrance and exit).

Now, if you look up the word paradigm shift in the dictionary, you'll more or less see the following definition...

- A radical change in the underlying beliefs or theory.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but this is exactly what has happened to the comic industry.  Gang, the comic industry is "cool".  We are "it" with the X, Y, and Z generation.  Not only in the US and Canada, but the comic industry and it's characters are "da bomb" across the entire globe.

Collecting comics is no longer only for the introverts and the nerds, but it's growing exponentially with each and every Marvel movie that's being produced.   

Please...please...please...point out to me another collectible market (coins, stamps, cards, painting, cars, etc.) that is "cool", "It", "Da Bomb" which has experienced the fantastic ballistic growth our comic industry has seen the past few years.  

There are none.  There never has been anything like this in any of the collectible markets.  Period!!!

Here in the Central Valley of California, we have small Mickey Mouse towns that are embracing this paradigm shift by holding Comic Cons that draws 5,000 to 10,000 or more people per day.  Ten years ago, you'd be lucky to have more attendees than dealers at these shows.

Now, for the 2nd part - Where are we in this comic bull market and should we be concerned about the recent dramatic / continued price increase of AF #15?  

The answer is "NO" short term and "YES" long term only...IF...IF...certain other events occur in the next few years.  

Why do I say "NO" short term, because it doesn't matter if we're talking about stocks, bonds, houses, collectibles, etc.   What's ALWAYS...ALWAYS...true is that the most desirable, most coveted, most wanted item in that field / industry will lead the charge and provide the highest return on your investment.  It goes without saying that I've just described AF #15.   In other words, DO NOT be concerned that AF #15 is spearheading this bull market and pulling away from the rest of the comic pack.   This is the way ALL...ALL...bull markets work.  

Heck, I'll go further and state that I would be concerned if AF #15 wasn't leading this comic bull market.  If your "General" isn't leading the charge, then something is definitely wrong.

Those of you that always complain about the "supply" side of AF #15 continue to miss the bigger picture and must have slept thru Economics 101.   The "demand" for this book from buyers (which includes collectors, dealers, investors, institutions, etc) is just overwhelming.    There isn't  one single person out there reading this that doesn't want to own a copy of AF #15.    At least AF #15 is "relatively" attainable for most buyers.  Unlike Action #1 or Detective #27.   Even if you have the funds, there is virtually "0" supply of these (2) Golden Age grails to go around.

Finally, when is the bust (bear market) going to occur?

Yes, I also definitely have a strong opinion to this question.  However, because I've babbled long enough, I'll go back to being a lurker and wish everyone the best of luck!!!

See ya.

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Spyderfan

Spyderfan

Posted
Posted

Now THAT, is some pretty well thought out stuff about what may be happening.  If it is true, we should be seeing other SA keys reaping the reward as Peter pulls them along on his web.  hm

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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, da.amazing.spiderman said:

 

Normally, I'm just a lurker and prefer to keep my opinions to myself.

However, this talk of a "bubble" in the comic market and the concerns over the pricing of AF #15 has me itching to add my two cents to this discussion.

Okay, though some of you might disagree, I've lived long enough to learn (the hard way) that the (4) most detrimental words to your wealth that those in power (Your Banker, Your Broker, Your Politician, Your Realtor, Your Mortgage Company, Your Government) want you to believe are these...

"This Time it's Different"

Gang...It's NEVER different. The bigger the boom...The bigger the bust!!!

I have no doubt that if we continue on our current trajectory of price escalation, the comic market will eventually tank / bust.

However, let's not let fear of the possible market bust prevent us from enjoying this bull ride while our beloved comic market is kicking .  

So, if we don't allow fear to control our decision, but instead utilize logic, then there are (2) important questions you should be asking yourself.

1)  Why has the comic market gone ballistic???
2)  How far / where are we in this bull market comic cycle???  Perhaps more importantly to this AF #15 board, should I be concerned about the dramatic price escalation of AF #15 across all grades.

The answer to the first question (why has the comic market gone ballistic) is very simple.  It's called a paradigm shift.  Whenever and wherever a paradigm shift occurs (doesn't matter what industry or market), a great amount of money can be made and / or lost (depending on your point of entrance and exit).

Now, if you look up the word paradigm shift in the dictionary, you'll more or less see the following definition...

- A radical change in the underlying beliefs or theory.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but this is exactly what has happened to the comic industry.  Gang, the comic industry is "cool".  We are "it" with the X, Y, and Z generation.  Not only in the US and Canada, but the comic industry and it's characters are "da bomb" across the entire globe.

Collecting comics is no longer only for the introverts and the nerds, but it's growing exponentially with each and every Marvel movie that's being produced.   

Please...please...please...point out to me another collectible market (coins, stamps, cards, painting, cars, etc.) that is "cool", "It", "Da Bomb" which has experienced the fantastic ballistic growth our comic industry has seen the past few years.  

There are none.  There never has been anything like this in any of the collectible markets.  Period!!!

Here in the Central Valley of California, we have small Mickey Mouse towns that are embracing this paradigm shift by holding Comic Cons that draws 5,000 to 10,000 or more people per day.  Ten years ago, you'd be lucky to have more attendees than dealers at these shows.

Now, for the 2nd part - Where are we in this comic bull market and should we be concerned about the recent dramatic / continued price increase of AF #15?  

The answer is "NO" short term and "YES" long term only...IF...IF...certain other events occur in the next few years.  

Why do I say "NO" short term, because it doesn't matter if we're talking about stocks, bonds, houses, collectibles, etc.   What's ALWAYS...ALWAYS...true is that the most desirable, most coveted, most wanted item in that field / industry will lead the charge and provide the highest return on your investment.  It goes without saying that I've just described AF #15.   In other words, DO NOT be concerned that AF #15 is spearheading this bull market and pulling away from the rest of the comic pack.   This is the way ALL...ALL...bull markets work.  

Heck, I'll go further and state that I would be concerned if AF #15 wasn't leading this comic bull market.  If your "General" isn't leading the charge, then something is definitely wrong.

Those of you that always complain about the "supply" side of AF #15 continue to miss the bigger picture and must have slept thru Economics 101.   The "demand" for this book from buyers (which includes collectors, dealers, investors, institutions, etc) is just overwhelming.    There isn't  one single person out there reading this that doesn't want to own a copy of AF #15.    At least AF #15 is "relatively" attainable for most buyers.  Unlike Action #1 or Detective #27.   Even if you have the funds, there is virtually "0" supply of these (2) Golden Age grails to go around.

Finally, when is the bust (bear market) going to occur?

Yes, I also definitely have a strong opinion to this question.  However, because I've babbled long enough, I'll go back to being a lurker and wish everyone the best of luck!!!

See ya.

Very interesting data. Welcome to the Boards.

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trmoore54

trmoore54

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, da.amazing.spiderman said:

 

Normally, I'm just a lurker and prefer to keep my opinions to myself.

However, this talk of a "bubble" in the comic market and the concerns over the pricing of AF #15 has me itching to add my two cents to this discussion.

Okay, though some of you might disagree, I've lived long enough to learn (the hard way) that the (4) most detrimental words to your wealth that those in power (Your Banker, Your Broker, Your Politician, Your Realtor, Your Mortgage Company, Your Government) want you to believe are these...

"This Time it's Different"

Gang...It's NEVER different. The bigger the boom...The bigger the bust!!!

I have no doubt that if we continue on our current trajectory of price escalation, the comic market will eventually tank / bust.

However, let's not let fear of the possible market bust prevent us from enjoying this bull ride while our beloved comic market is kicking .  

So, if we don't allow fear to control our decision, but instead utilize logic, then there are (2) important questions you should be asking yourself.

1)  Why has the comic market gone ballistic???
2)  How far / where are we in this bull market comic cycle???  Perhaps more importantly to this AF #15 board, should I be concerned about the dramatic price escalation of AF #15 across all grades.

The answer to the first question (why has the comic market gone ballistic) is very simple.  It's called a paradigm shift.  Whenever and wherever a paradigm shift occurs (doesn't matter what industry or market), a great amount of money can be made and / or lost (depending on your point of entrance and exit).

Now, if you look up the word paradigm shift in the dictionary, you'll more or less see the following definition...

- A radical change in the underlying beliefs or theory.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but this is exactly what has happened to the comic industry.  Gang, the comic industry is "cool".  We are "it" with the X, Y, and Z generation.  Not only in the US and Canada, but the comic industry and it's characters are "da bomb" across the entire globe.

Collecting comics is no longer only for the introverts and the nerds, but it's growing exponentially with each and every Marvel movie that's being produced.   

Please...please...please...point out to me another collectible market (coins, stamps, cards, painting, cars, etc.) that is "cool", "It", "Da Bomb" which has experienced the fantastic ballistic growth our comic industry has seen the past few years.  

There are none.  There never has been anything like this in any of the collectible markets.  Period!!!

Here in the Central Valley of California, we have small Mickey Mouse towns that are embracing this paradigm shift by holding Comic Cons that draws 5,000 to 10,000 or more people per day.  Ten years ago, you'd be lucky to have more attendees than dealers at these shows.

Now, for the 2nd part - Where are we in this comic bull market and should we be concerned about the recent dramatic / continued price increase of AF #15?  

The answer is "NO" short term and "YES" long term only...IF...IF...certain other events occur in the next few years.  

Why do I say "NO" short term, because it doesn't matter if we're talking about stocks, bonds, houses, collectibles, etc.   What's ALWAYS...ALWAYS...true is that the most desirable, most coveted, most wanted item in that field / industry will lead the charge and provide the highest return on your investment.  It goes without saying that I've just described AF #15.   In other words, DO NOT be concerned that AF #15 is spearheading this bull market and pulling away from the rest of the comic pack.   This is the way ALL...ALL...bull markets work.  

Heck, I'll go further and state that I would be concerned if AF #15 wasn't leading this comic bull market.  If your "General" isn't leading the charge, then something is definitely wrong.

Those of you that always complain about the "supply" side of AF #15 continue to miss the bigger picture and must have slept thru Economics 101.   The "demand" for this book from buyers (which includes collectors, dealers, investors, institutions, etc) is just overwhelming.    There isn't  one single person out there reading this that doesn't want to own a copy of AF #15.    At least AF #15 is "relatively" attainable for most buyers.  Unlike Action #1 or Detective #27.   Even if you have the funds, there is virtually "0" supply of these (2) Golden Age grails to go around.

Finally, when is the bust (bear market) going to occur?

Yes, I also definitely have a strong opinion to this question.  However, because I've babbled long enough, I'll go back to being a lurker and wish everyone the best of luck!!!

See ya.

Actually I was vacationing in Seattle over the Easter weekend and my wife and I watched this car auction show (forget where it was) but they had some amazingly cool cars from all eras, types, etc.  It was pretty fascinating and like a said, a lot of droolingly person_without_enough_empathyen cars to ogle and consider.  A lot of the lower end cars were going for $50-100K.  Others much more.  Pretty amazing money being spent.  I like your post...pretty epic for a first post.  Just thought (as someone who really digs cool cars but has no real knowledge or attachment to the scene) I'd mention that I was pretty amazed at the money being generated...I came to the conclusion that collecting is cool, especially for people with expendable cash...retired hobbyists, etc.  Something to have fun with and maybe make some money along the way...

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VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted
On 2017-05-27 at 4:37 PM, Spiderturtle said:

there's a lot of hatred for af15 mania.  I don't see the af15 guys going over to the golden age area and hating on the "classic covers" or the pre-robin tecs.  Pretty entertaining if you ask me.  Similar analogy to my beloved gs warriors.  a lot of people  hating them right now since they've formed the super team.  Hate all you want cause it's not gonna stop the steaming train.

I don't see any hatred for AF #15.

I see some people who are sad that they may not be able to afford a copy and I see a few people perplexed at the price increases because they can't find the logic to explain it.

I think the only hatred is towards posts that are fixated on value alone and this chat forum has always been protective of it's culture in the sense that they've always preferred content and quality over just money.

But big dollars will bring in a big difference in opinions. 

 

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VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

Might explain the reason why the current 8.0 is at a record price.  Expendable cash/8.0 isn't made available readily

I think it explains why most collectible markets have exploded in the last 9 years. Near zero interest rates and people who have money don't have placed to put park it.

Collectibles historically gain faster than current interest returns and so money is being poured into collectibles (and BITCOIN and real estate, etc).

Cars, comics, cards, real estate, crypto-currencies are all rising at rates that are making people's heads spin.

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Gotham Kid

Gotham Kid

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I don't see any hatred for AF #15.

I see some people who are sad that they may not be able to afford a copy and I see a few people perplexed at the price increases because they can't find the logic to explain it.

I think the only hatred is towards posts that are fixated on value alone and this chat forum has always been protective of it's culture in the sense that they've always preferred content and quality over just money.

(thumbsu

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

i know everyone's talked about the 8.0 but the 5.0($53k), 4.0 ss ($27K) all had super strong numbers

That's now two 5.0 results that make the $61k someone just paid for the 6.5 in the last CC auction look "cheap".

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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nWo_22

nWo_22

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jaydogrules said:

That's now two 5.0 results that make the $61k someone just paid for the 6.5 in the last CC auction as being "cheap".

-J.

Nah it just makes that TMNT #1 trade that much sweeter! :shy:

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