THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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9 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I'd say 220

I'd say 210-220 (thumbsu were a third 8.0 to be auctioned in the upcoming months ( before year's end )

Edited by Gotham Kid

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45 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

A 3rd 8.0 if it came to auction in august will still be  $250k book give or take :wink:.   Theres a few underbidders not just 1 leftover

Just like GAtor I'd say "take". Where were they on the second run ?

Edited by Gotham Kid

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1 minute ago, Gotham Kid said:

I'd say 210-220 (thumbsu were a third 8.0 to be auctioned in the upcoming months ( before year's end )

This copier was nicer , imo, than the 260k copy and it went for 10% less. Underbidder was 225. So that's approx value if another came up now...imo

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2 hours ago, G.A.tor said:
2 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

I'd say 210-220 (thumbsu were a third 8.0 to be auctioned in the upcoming months ( before year's end )

This copier was nicer , imo, than the 260k copy and it went for 10% less. Underbidder was 225. So that's approx value if another came up now...imo

I'm also considering the fact that if yet another 8.0 were to quickly make the scene, the psychological effect of "scarcity in 8.0" also would come into play.

Edited by Gotham Kid
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8 hours ago, peewee22 said:
8 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Well, as someone who just obtained a 5.0 that got some complements as potentially "exceptional" for its grade, I suppose I could pursue getting the CVA label on it.  But again, it's only on ComicLink that I've seen any attention paid to it, so I can't tell if there's real value there.  I don't understand how they decide whether to award their label, so I worry that it might be a bit arbitrary.

Trust me, I'm not trying to come on too strong with the skepticism ... I am genuinely interested in whether this would somehow enhance the value of my book.

Look into it and let us know the process. I have no idea who or where to send it. 

I thought CVA was a separate company (Comic Verification Authority??) that the majority of the board members here laughed off as nothing more than a silly concept.  I thought this lack of acceptance by the general marketplace was one of the reasons why they did not last and ended up closing their doors.  (shrug)

Are you guys now saying they are still alive and kicking and still affixing their stickers on superior looking copies of books relative to their assigned grades?  ???

 

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5 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Honestly, I don't need a sticker to tell me that my book is exceptional. When the auction lady brought my potential book to me to view at HA-Dallas in Aug 2011 (pre auction), I knew it was exceptional.

Didn't some collectors say almost exactly the same thing when 3rd party independent grading started up with CGC back in 2000? hm  :D

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6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Didn't some collectors say almost exactly the same thing when 3rd party independent grading started up with CGC back in 2000? hm  :D

sure, but the two concepts are so different in application and value, that I  don't see them as "comparable" in their different dissentions...

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It's interesting when you look at the 8.0 sales, you can really see that spike in value. No recorded sales of copies for 4 years between 2013 and 2017 (On GPA anyway), but for the 5-6 years previous the book sold between 55-85k range. Flash forward to now, and we are looking at the book going high at 260k and "low" at 235k if i'm reading this correctly. There were few sales back then as there are now, but the floor is so much higher now and the ceiling it seems is proportionally much lower. This book sold for back then a fraction of what it sells for now, with huge swings in price in the same year. But now it's more like a highly valued smaller price window commodity.

I would almost argue that's a good sign for the book. That not only are these high prices repeatable, but if multiple copies hit the market the price softens around 10% due to that lack of final tier competition for it.
The buying pool is probably exponentially larger for every 10% in price you drop because at the end of the day 260k and 235k really are different prices and that extra 25k really will be a bridge to far for multiple collectors.

I sometimes think people forget dropping that 10-20% you are dealing with a completely different set of end bidders/buyers. That's why I never liked the whole "crash" concept. That implies its one or two guys pushing all of this. I tend to think once the market is established and prices are repeated/accepted everyone sorta finds their spot in the pecking order. That because you topped out the top 5-10% of buyers on a book, doesn't mean the next few copies in grade sell for fractions. They sell for the top potential bid value of that next tier of collectors in that next tier of financial capability. Its not like there are 2-3 guys who decided this book is worth 250k range, and when they stop the next group only think its worth 70k so the 4th copy sells a pittance.

 

Anyway, rambling on I guess. Ill be interested to see what a 4th in grade copy sells for this year, see how stable the price really. Id predict next copy sells for 225-230k

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17 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:
On 7/24/2017 at 11:04 PM, Philreal said:

I believe the CVA distinction will put it at or over the $250k mark.

Serious question.  Does the market really put value on "CVA distinction"?  I had never heard about this until recently, and I don't believe I've seen any dealer other than ComicLink play it up as something worth caring about.

I actually just bought a TTA27 5.0 with a CVA tag.  I got it for 3100. A 4.5 sold for 3000 just a few months back, and a 6.0 sold for 4800 in the same time. I don't know if either had CVA but considering how uncommon it is to see i sorta doubt it. 

 

Top ten book of a major marvel silver-age key first appearance of a character with a successful movie franchise....book was probably under-graded and had phenomenal eye appeal with that CVA sticker....i got it for same price as a lower grade copy without it in an auction. Small sample size yes, but in my case that CVA tag seems to have done absolutely nothing at all for the value. Either I stole this, or that CVA is just a square blue distraction (in this case anyway).

 

 

RADF34832017313_18111.jpg

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10 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

I'd say 220

Makes sense to me, pretty amazing price if one was to consider $235k as the low and $261k as the high.  If i said that in may, most boardies would think i was crazy :bigsmile: 

Edited by Spiderturtle

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11 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

This copier was nicer , imo, than the 260k copy and it went for 10% less. Underbidder was 225. So that's approx value if another came up now...imo

Let's conservatively say that AF15 in 8.0 is a 200k book. We can live with that. (thumbsu

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8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Didn't some collectors say almost exactly the same thing when 3rd party independent grading started up with CGC back in 2000? hm  :D

Yes, but I think you can have too many stickers on a book. What sticker is next to go on a slab? The CGC sticker (label) is enough in my opinion to verify a book's asthetics. 

Edited by peewee22

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The only value I can see is if you had 2 books for sale at the same time, at the same price, with equal eye appeal, and someone was trying to decide between the two. CVA might be the tie-breaker... That 1.5% of value fee on high-value books is crazy though...no freaking way...

Edited by Callaway29

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3 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I sometimes think people forget dropping that 10-20% you are dealing with a completely different set of end bidders/buyers. That's why I never liked the whole "crash" concept. That implies its one or two guys pushing all of this. I tend to think once the market is established and prices are repeated/accepted everyone sorta finds their spot in the pecking order. That because you topped out the top 5-10% of buyers on a book, doesn't mean the next few copies in grade sell for fractions. They sell for the top potential bid value of that next tier of collectors in that next tier of financial capability. Its not like there are 2-3 guys who decided this book is worth 250k range, and when they stop the next group only think its worth 70k so the 4th copy sells a pittance.

Yeah, except you could have made a similar argument about almost every market that did eventually crash.  Bubbles, by definition, suck in a lot of people and so you get repeat high prices - for a while - that seem to establish a new baseline level, but, in the end, turn out not to be a new, permanent plateau of prosperity after all.  I don't think you can tell much from one sale to another.  This is something we'll have to look back at, after a sufficient passage of time and after we see a full cycle, to make any kind of definitive determination.  

I do know that, at these prices, if I had an AF #15, I'd be bailing faster than you can yell "Titanic!"  $261K for an 8.0 (or even $235K)?  Are you kidding me?  Sell, Mortimer, Sell!  These prices make Ditko Spidey original art look cheap (not saying that one is inherently better than the other, but, I'd take a comparably priced Ditko ASM splash or 3 A/A+ Ditko ASM panel pages over an AF 15 8.0 any day of the week and twice on Sunday). 2c 

Edited by delekkerste
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21 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Yeah, except you could have made a similar argument about almost every market that did eventually crash.  Bubbles, by definition, suck in a lot of people and so you get repeat high prices - for a while - that seem to establish a new baseline level, but, in the end, turn out not to be a new, permanent plateau of prosperity after all.  I don't think you can tell much from one sale to another.  This is something we'll have to look back at, after a sufficient passage of time and after we see a full cycle, to make any kind of definitive determination.  

I do know that, at these prices, if I had an AF #15, I'd be bailing faster than you can yell "Titanic!"  $261K for an 8.0 (or even $235K)?  Are you kidding me?  Sell, Mortimer, Sell!  These prices make Ditko Spidey original art look cheap (not saying that one is inherently better than the other, but, I'd take a comparably priced Ditko ASM splash or 3 A/A+ Ditko ASM panel pages over an AF 15 8.0 any day of the week and twice on Sunday). 2c 

I was thinking maybe "Hindenburg" but, yeah, I agree.  Unlike with real estate and some financial bubbles there's almost no leverage involved here (so far as I know), which might seem like a good thing because people may not be obliged to sell into price declines.

But, again, there are a lot of AF 15s being held by average Joe collectors for whom these prices represent a significant fraction of their net worth.  They didn't intend to hold AF 15 as a valuable asset; they bought a copy (or two) for their collections when prices were much lower and then sat and watched the price run up of the past couple of years.

When their $50K (or more) mid-grade book becomes a $45K book or a $40K book do they think "I can ride this out" or do they think "Jeez, I'm seeing a lot of dough evaporate here -- better get out soon"? And, of course, the higher the grade, the larger the amount they have at risk.  

I have a feeling we're going to find out relatively soon how people react to a significant price dip affecting multiple grades. 

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21 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I was thinking maybe "Hindenburg" but, yeah, I agree.  Unlike with real estate and some financial bubbles there's almost no leverage involved here (so far as I know), which might seem like a good thing because people may not be obliged to sell into price declines.

But, again, there are a lot of AF 15s being held by average Joe collectors for whom these prices represent a significant fraction of their net worth.  They didn't intend to hold AF 15 as a valuable asset; they bought a copy (or two) for their collections when prices were much lower and then sat and watched the price run up of the past couple of years.

When their $50K (or more) mid-grade book becomes a $45K book or a $40K book do they think "I can ride this out" or do they think "Jeez, I'm seeing a lot of dough evaporate here -- better get out soon"? And, of course, the higher the grade, the larger the amount they have at risk.  

I have a feeling we're going to find out relatively soon how people react to a significant price dip affecting multiple grades. 

Some us purchased the book because we really love and enjoy the character. You can't imagine the nights I laid awake as a child on Thur night waiting for the Fri comics delivery downtown (pop 1552...small town in rural Arkansas). Issue 78, 101, 110, 134....I used to dream about owning a Spidey 1 / AF15 in the early 70s. No way I could save up or borrow enough (ie, 50 bucks) to get it. Almost impossible in those days unless you were wealthy. Fast forward high school, college, decades in the work force, etc. Now I finally own a nice one (as many of us do on the Boards). Flipping is good but it may not be for many. Ya'll had your say on flipping & selling and it could stir some people up to possibly sell. But I wanted to tell my side of the story to encourage Boardies to think before they do anything they may regret later. Nothing wrong with flipping, but ask yourself in 10 years where that money is. (thumbsu

Edited by peewee22
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1 hour ago, delekkerste said:
5 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I sometimes think people forget dropping that 10-20% you are dealing with a completely different set of end bidders/buyers. That's why I never liked the whole "crash" concept. That implies its one or two guys pushing all of this. I tend to think once the market is established and prices are repeated/accepted everyone sorta finds their spot in the pecking order. That because you topped out the top 5-10% of buyers on a book, doesn't mean the next few copies in grade sell for fractions. They sell for the top potential bid value of that next tier of collectors in that next tier of financial capability. Its not like there are 2-3 guys who decided this book is worth 250k range, and when they stop the next group only think its worth 70k so the 4th copy sells a pittance.

Yeah, except you could have made a similar argument about almost every market that did eventually crash.  Bubbles, by definition, suck in a lot of people and so you get repeat high prices - for a while - that seem to establish a new baseline level, but, in the end, turn out not to be a new, permanent plateau of prosperity after all.  I don't think you can tell much from one sale to another.  This is something we'll have to look back at, after a sufficient passage of time and after we see a full cycle, to make any kind of definitive determination.  

I do know that, at these prices, if I had an AF #15, I'd be bailing faster than you can yell "Titanic!"  $261K for an 8.0 (or even $235K)?  Are you kidding me?  Sell, Mortimer, Sell!  These prices make Ditko Spidey original art look cheap (not saying that one is inherently better than the other, but, I'd take a comparably priced Ditko ASM splash or 3 A/A+ Ditko ASM panel pages over an AF 15 8.0 any day of the week and twice on Sunday). 2c 

Using that belief, do you think a crash where say 75% of its value disappears in a year? That all grades drop back to pre 2015 prices? Like if you think a crash is coming, how far will it fall? Do you think these 8.0's will be 73k again in foreseeable future? Thats what the last sale was on GPA back in 2013.

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1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

Using that belief, do you think a crash where say 75% of its value disappears in a year? That all grades drop back to pre 2015 prices? Like if you think a crash is coming, how far will it fall? Do you think these 8.0's will be 73k again in foreseeable future? Thats what the last sale was on GPA back in 2013.

Bubbles can go on longer than anyone expects (e.g., the '90s tech bubble was underway in 1996 but didn't top until 4 years later), and also take longer to deflate than anyone thinks as well (e.g., the Japanese Nikkei topped in 1990 and didn't bottom until 2008).  I don't think anybody here believes we will see a 75% crash in a year (probably ever).  I don't think anyone expects 8.0s to be $73K again in the "foreseeable future" either.  

Can prices fall back to pre-2015 levels?  I can certainly envision scenarios where it could, and would posit that anyone who can't envision prices going back to 2 1/2 year ago levels under any circumstance suffers from a terrible lack of imagination.  That said, we don't have to go back to pre-2015 levels to suffer declines that would hurt people buying or holding at current levels.  Even a decline to, say, $180K from $260K would be a 30.8% decline in 8.0.  A decline to $160K would be a whopping 41.5% decline, more than enough to qualify as a crash to most people (if your house fell 41.5% in value, you're damn right people would call it a crash).  Could I see that happening if we get a generalized bear market in asset valuations and/or enter a protracted economic recession in the coming months/years?  Sure, why not?  

Comics are NOT counter-cyclical assets - they've been inflated by all the same factors that have propelled stocks, real estate, art, etc., which is why all of these asset classes have moved up in tandem with scary high correlation since 2009.  Anyone who thinks otherwise is clinging on to old tales of comic circulations doing better in recessionary times (which has nothing to do with back issue prices, and certainly not back issue prices at the kind of levels we see nowadays) or clinging to misguided beliefs that comics and collectibles surged higher during the last recession (no, they surged along with everything else during the forced reflation that ensued before the brief, but scary, recession was even over).  And if Action #1 6.0 sold for a then-astounding $325K (?) in recessionary 2009, well, does anyone doubt it would have sold for as much or more in, say, the summer of 2008 at the height of the hard asset, commodity-supercycle mania?  Sorry, arguments about comics' counter-cyclicality do not hold up under closer scrutiny.  If the next recession isn't just a brief affair like the last one, people will learn that lesson the hard way, especially with many comic prices much higher (both absolutely and vs. income and other relative measures) than at the last cyclical peak. 2c 

But, to reiterate:

No 75% crash in a year

No pre-2015 or pre-2013 prices in the foreseeable future

Bubbles can inflate longer than people think, as well as take longer to deflate

Comics are pro-cyclical, not counter-cyclical

All will become clear with the passage of years and the fullness of the cycle (all this short-term speculation is just jibber-jabber)

Edited by delekkerste

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