How much of a premium are we talking for newsstand issues v/s direct editions? 10 10

[NCAmother]

2 hours ago, mr_highgrade said:

 CGC already started to list newsies on its label.

On all the 80's-90's issues?  Including Marvel and DC?

BTW, I had subscriptions in '86-89 for Marvel titles, and they were all delivered as direct edition, not UPC newsstand.

 

[Lazyboy]

32 minutes ago, NCAmother said:

On all the 80's-90's issues?  Including Marvel and DC?

No, only on whatever random issues they inconsistently choose. Then again, they have been noting Canadian Newsstands for years and anybody who has been paying attention knows there are many, many unmarked CNs sitting in slabs.

32 minutes ago, NCAmother said:

BTW, I had subscriptions in '86-89 for Marvel titles, and they were all delivered as direct edition, not UPC newsstand.

That's what I thought, but again, subscriptions generally only accounted for around 2-4% of the distribution of an issue, so it wouldn't make much difference in the numbers either way.

[Jaydogrules]

8 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

No, only on whatever random issues they inconsistently choose. Then again, they have been noting Canadian Newsstands for years and anybody who has been paying attention knows there are many, many unmarked CNs sitting in slabs.

That's what I thought, but again, subscriptions generally only accounted for around 2-4% of the distribution of an issue, so it wouldn't make much difference in the numbers either way.

CGC usually only notes it when there is something substantively different about the book beyond it simply having a hideous grocery store looking bar code on it.

Voldemort is only doing because they're trying anything at this point to increase their tiny market share.  

-J.

[mr_highgrade]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

CGC usually only notes it when there is something substantively different about the book beyond it simply having a hideous grocery store looking bar code on it.

Voldemort is only doing because they're trying anything at this point to increase their tiny market share.  

-J.

If the cover price of the newsie is different than the DE CGC will note it on it's label.

[Silver Surfer]

On 5/13/2017 at 5:05 PM, mr_highgrade said:

 CGC already started to list newsies on its label.

Wow, news to me. I've never seen the notation before or is that because the printing is way too small now?

[mr_highgrade]

I believe the notations are on the left corner. I should have some by the end of the month that I'll post on the boards.

[divad]

On 5/14/2017 at 4:57 AM, Jaydogrules said:

CGC usually only notes it when there is something substantively different about the book beyond it simply having a hideous grocery store looking bar code on it.

Voldemort is only doing because they're trying anything at this point to increase their tiny market share.  

-J.

I don't think this is true at all (why am I not surprised?)  Knowledge is power.

[Silver Surfer]

I think that Voldy is doing just fine but I think that the way books show in the new CGC slabs [they really pop] has probably put a bit of a halt to Voldy's momentum. 

[Jaydogrules]

9 hours ago, divad said:

I don't think this is true at all (why am I not surprised?)  Knowledge is power.

Indeed it is.  

So get some.

-J.

[divad]

 

[valiantman]

Just for the fun of it, I just checked the CGC listings on Ebay for the early Copper Age years, looking at the covers of the comics themselves (not relying on the word "newsstand" in the title)...

CGC 1980 results in 82 direct editions, 48 newsstand

CGC 1981 results in 98 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1982 results in 103 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1983 results in 114 direct editions, 21 newsstand

CGC 1984 results in 120 direct editions, 10 newsstand

CGC 1985 results in 130 direct editions, 9 newsstand

CGC 1986 results in 160 direct editions, 5 newsstand

These books have already been CGC graded, so we're talking about "slab-worthy" comics from these years, but the results speak for themselves.

For the mathematically lazy, that corresponds to:

1980 = 63% direct, 37% newsstand

1981 = 78% direct, 22% newsstand

1982 = 79% direct, 21% newsstand

1983 = 84% direct, 16% newsstand

1984 = 92% direct, 8% newsstand

1985 = 94% direct, 6% newsstand

1986 = 97% direct, 3% newsstand

It's just a sample, taken at a random time of day, but those were the results.

I'm confident we're looking at "survival rates" not printing rates... so it really doesn't matter how many were printed if this is what you find in the market 30+ years later.

Try it yourself, if you like! 

Edited October 30, 2017 by valiantman

[Cpt Kirk]

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

Just for the fun of it, I just checked the CGC listings on Ebay for the early Copper Age years, looking at the covers of the comics themselves (not relying on the word "newsstand" in the title)...

CGC 1980 results in 82 direct editions, 48 newsstand

CGC 1981 results in 98 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1982 results in 103 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1983 results in 114 direct editions, 21 newsstand

CGC 1984 results in 120 direct editions, 10 newsstand

CGC 1985 results in 130 direct editions, 9 newsstand

CGC 1986 results in 160 direct editions, 5 newsstand

These books have already been CGC graded, so we're talking about "slab-worthy" comics from these years, but the results speak for themselves.

For the mathematically lazy, that corresponds to:

1980 = 63% direct, 37% newsstand

1981 = 78% direct, 22% newsstand

1982 = 79% direct, 21% newsstand

1983 = 84% direct, 16% newsstand

1984 = 92% direct, 8% newsstand

1985 = 94% direct, 6% newsstand

1986 = 97% direct, 3% newsstand

It's just a sample, taken at a random time of day, but those were the results.

I'm confident we're looking at "survival rates" not printing rates... so it really doesn't matter how many were printed if this is what you find in the market 30+ years later.

Try it yourself, if you like! 

Thanks for the thoughtful and academic analysis Valiantman.... great job!  

As near as I can tell, when you get to the  year 2005 and up, the ratio is 1% or less newsstand to 99% direct.   Some newsstand issues are nearly impossible to find but I've managed to find all but 3 newsstand issues in the titles of Batman, Superman/Adv of Superman, Detective and Action Comics from the original series, New 52, and Rebirth.   I've gone so far as to get some of them from friends in Venezuela and Germany.  Out of approximately 1900 possible newsstand issues in those titles, the only three I haven't seen yet are Detective New 52 #4 and #9 and Superman New 52 #8.   I'm sure those three will show up eventually on ebay... just a matter of time.   If anyone has seen one of those, I would love to hear about it.

By the way, DC just recently stopped producing newsstand issues of the mainstream superhero comic books.   I believe the last ones they made were dated October 2017 (examples include the Rebirth issues of Batman 29, Superman 29, Action 985 and Detective 962).   I understand they stopped making Marvel newsstand issues a few years ago.   This is truly the end of an era.

It will be interesting to see if prices for newsstand issues go up over time due to rarity.   My personal opinion is that most collectors simply don't care.   So if only 1% of the collectors care (and it is probably less than that) then the supply should still exceed demand.   The exception might be in the title of Batman, where there seem to be more completionist collectors.   

Edited October 31, 2017 by Cpt Kirk

[kimik]

On 5/13/2017 at 6:05 PM, mr_highgrade said:

 CGC already started to list newsies on its label.

I wonder if all you need to do is note "newsstand edition" when you submit your order just like you have to with "Canadian Edition"? I am going to try that with my next modern submission. 

[jcjames]

On 10/30/2017 at 3:06 PM, valiantman said:

Just for the fun of it, I just checked the CGC listings on Ebay for the early Copper Age years, looking at the covers of the comics themselves (not relying on the word "newsstand" in the title)...

CGC 1980 results in 82 direct editions, 48 newsstand

CGC 1981 results in 98 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1982 results in 103 direct editions, 27 newsstand

CGC 1983 results in 114 direct editions, 21 newsstand

CGC 1984 results in 120 direct editions, 10 newsstand

CGC 1985 results in 130 direct editions, 9 newsstand

CGC 1986 results in 160 direct editions, 5 newsstand

These books have already been CGC graded, so we're talking about "slab-worthy" comics from these years, but the results speak for themselves.

For the mathematically lazy, that corresponds to:

1980 = 63% direct, 37% newsstand

1981 = 78% direct, 22% newsstand

1982 = 79% direct, 21% newsstand

1983 = 84% direct, 16% newsstand

1984 = 92% direct, 8% newsstand

1985 = 94% direct, 6% newsstand

1986 = 97% direct, 3% newsstand

It's just a sample, taken at a random time of day, but those were the results.

I'm confident we're looking at "survival rates" not printing rates... so it really doesn't matter how many were printed if this is what you find in the market 30+ years later.

Try it yourself, if you like! 

 

Very interesting data, thanks man!

 

"Slab-worthy" is an important variable here since newsstands by virtue of their handling would likely become less "slab-worthy" simply by being handled more on the newsstand.

However, if the slab-unworthy effect of man-handling newsstands were considered a constant (no reason to think newsstands were increasingly rough-handled every year), this would still show a dramatic 90+% decline in newsstand issues in just six years starting in the 80's.

 

 

 

 

[Lazyboy]

47 minutes ago, jcjames said:

Very interesting data, thanks man!

 

"Slab-worthy" is an important variable here since newsstands by virtue of their handling would likely become less "slab-worthy" simply by being handled more on the newsstand.

However, if the slab-unworthy effect of man-handling newsstands were considered a constant (no reason to think newsstands were increasingly rough-handled every year), this would still show a dramatic 90+% decline in newsstand issues in just six years starting in the 80's.

Kind of interesting, but not statistically significant.

We're not really talking about "slab-worthy" comics here. What we're talking about is comics that somebody actually sent to CGC (even if they are 7.5s that won't likely even sell for the slabbing fee). Comics that were subsequently listed on eBay with the year in the title of the listing and were active when valiantman searched.

Also, looking at what actually comes up in those searches, one should realize that many of the issues found (in large quantities) in a "1986 CGC" search did not have newsstand distribution. Watchmen, The Dark Knight, Marvel Age, TMNT and other indies, etc.

The numbers alone don't tell the full story.

[valiantman]

2 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Kind of interesting, but not statistically significant.

Ha!  Always the critic, never the producer.  Very lazy, boy.

Please educate us all what WOULD be statistically significant.

 

Is it perfect? No.

Is it more useful than ANYTHING else provided in this 3.5 year old topic?  Yes.

 

Now, please provide something even more useful, since you're the expert on "statistically significant".

Edited November 3, 2017 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

The numbers we actually want are not available and there are no numbers available that will help us find the numbers we actually want. I have nothing to work with that will help me provide any useful numbers.

What you're doing is about one level above Jaydogrules saying most of the Sandman 8 editorial variants no longer exist because there are only X copies on the CGC census.

[jcjames]

4 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Kind of interesting, but not statistically significant.

We're not really talking about "slab-worthy" comics here. What we're talking about is comics that somebody actually sent to CGC (even if they are 7.5s that won't likely even sell for the slabbing fee). Comics that were subsequently listed on eBay with the year in the title of the listing and were active when valiantman searched.

Also, looking at what actually comes up in those searches, one should realize that many of the issues found (in large quantities) in a "1986 CGC" search did not have newsstand distribution. Watchmen, The Dark Knight, Marvel Age, TMNT and other indies, etc.

The numbers alone don't tell the full story.

For the data set available (which is not entirely meaningless) what are other likely causes to explain the 90% drop in Newsstand CGC books from 1980-1986 that is plausible and consistent with the hypothesis that the number of Newsstand issues sold during those years rapidly declined in the early 80s? Or as valiantman put it, the number of newsstand issues currently available for sale are significantly (like 90%) lower for books from 1980 to 1986. (which begs the question of why they're currently harder to find, leading to the original hypothesis).

If other variables (such as more books not being issued as newsstands at all like TDK, TMNT etc) are a likely explanation, then do you have data to support that? IOW, do same search as valiantman but exclude books and indies with no newsstands?

 

Edited November 3, 2017 by jcjames

[valiantman]

I did exclude TMNT and Marvel Age.  If you prefer to exclude TDKR and rerun the numbers, head on over to Ebay and start countin', but we might want to ask why DC abandoned the newsstands for some titles.  Content, yes, but no one leaves big money on the table.  Maybe it wasn't big money in newsstands anymore.

[Lazyboy]

1 hour ago, jcjames said:

For the data set available, what are other likely causes to explain the 90% drop in Newsstand CGC books from 1980-1986 that is plausible and consistent with the hypothesis that the number of Newsstans issues sold during those years rapidly declined in the early 80s?

There is no reason to believe that the number of newsstand editions sold rapidly declined in the 80s (the 70s are a different story). The number of Direct editions sold (to dealers, if not readers/collectors) increased fairly rapidly, leading to the Direct Market becoming the dominant distribution channel in a relatively short time after publishers really embraced it. Total distribution generally increased in the 80s.

1 hour ago, jcjames said:

If other variables (such as more books not being issued as newsstands at all like TDK, TMNT etc) are a likely explanation, then do you have data to support that?

What, do I have data to support the fact that comics without newsstand distribution have become increasingly more common over the years? Why would I even try to have a discussion with anyone who doesn't understand that?

What "data" do you need? Do you believe the titles I mentioned had any newsstand distribution?

1 hour ago, jcjames said:

IOW, do same search as valiantman but exclude books and indies with no newsstands?

I'm not going to waste my time with that because (a) anybody interested in doing so can do it, and more importantly, (b) it still won't tell us anything relevant to what we really want to know.

24 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I did exclude TMNT and Marvel Age.  If you prefer to exclude TDKR and rerun the numbers, head on over to Ebay and start countin', but we might want to ask why DC abandoned the newsstands for some titles.  Content, yes, but no one leaves big money on the table.  Maybe it wasn't big money in newsstands anymore.

The answer is obvious: DM is guaranteed sales. A copy printed is a copy sold (yes, there is still some overprinting to account for damages, etc. but you know what I mean).

Even when newsstand distribution was working well there was significant waste. That's just the nature of the system.

I am not denying that newsstand distribution has been in decline for decades now. That is common knowledge (at least it should be). I just think the extent/speed of the decline is greatly exaggerated by some people.

Why some titles didn't have newsstand distribution is irrelevant anyway. The arguments are always about the percentage split of a specific issue (that was distributed through both channels).