Beginning of Bull Market for Comic Books

[Flaming_Telepath]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

It is good for the hobby, as it has brought in much new interest and money.

I have been hearing movie speculation has been bad since Daredevil in 2003.

So far the majority of all comic book keys have gone up since 2003.

 

I think why people don`t chase non-keys is just about any Marvel comic book can be read on Marvel Unlimited. No challenge anymore.

At least with a key you got something that many people will covet.

 

Not true.

 

The vast majority of the movie-going public aren't interested in the books.

 

And there's little to no 'new money', just the same money being spent in different ways.

 

These days, it's all about the flip, because a large chunk of the people buying these books are experienced collectors and understand that they have a limited shelf-life. Buy high, seller higher...but don't be left holding the baby.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

 

This.

 

And that books like FF 45 & 52 are now more expensive in the marketplace than established keys like FF 48 &/or (in some cases) ASM 129 is ridiculous.

 

Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer. More importantly, the momentum will shift back to FF 48 (or ASM 129) the precise moment a new Silver Surfer or Punisher movie is announced.

 

That's the core of the current house of cards in movie speculation -- subtle shifts in demand can cause swift decreases.

 

I'd wager even Iron Man 55's taken a hit in recent months as the bigger money is (perceived) to be made with Detective 474, FF 36, 45, & 52.

 

And next month it could shift to Captain America 217 or some other random 4th-rate "key."

I don`t see why Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer, as of right now with the mainstream Groot is a bigger character than Silver Surfer. There are new rules/times because there is a new,different and bigger audience now.

To think that these Marvel movies are just a fad, and will go away maybe selling them short. In fact they will get much bigger. Because of these movies the Marvel heroes will always be in the limelight. They will never fade back into the corner LCS from which the sprang. They have now been exposed to mainstream, and mainstream loves them.

Once the Inhumans get the Game of Thrones treatment they will be put on a big level just like Guardians of Galaxy.

Now on the other hand I could see the DC second rate heroes falling back because DC doesn't have the track record of making great movies like Marvel has.

 

 

 

Groot is not a bigger character than the Silver Surfer. He has more recent publicity than the Silver Surfer but that is like saying "Miley Cyrus is bigger than Madonna" because she has just been splashed all over the news. The fundamentals are not there, once he has an established a fanbase that has persisted for 40+ years and is still a favorite, then you can say he is bigger.

You don`t have to wait 40 years to deem who is bigger.

An example is Hunger Games and Harry Potter are bigger then Flash Gordon and Tarzan now.

New generations have new heroes.

[The-Collector]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

 

This.

 

And that books like FF 45 & 52 are now more expensive in the marketplace than established keys like FF 48 &/or (in some cases) ASM 129 is ridiculous.

 

Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer. More importantly, the momentum will shift back to FF 48 (or ASM 129) the precise moment a new Silver Surfer or Punisher movie is announced.

 

That's the core of the current house of cards in movie speculation -- subtle shifts in demand can cause swift decreases.

 

I'd wager even Iron Man 55's taken a hit in recent months as the bigger money is (perceived) to be made with Detective 474, FF 36, 45, & 52.

 

And next month it could shift to Captain America 217 or some other random 4th-rate "key."

I don`t see why Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer, as of right now with the mainstream Groot is a bigger character than Silver Surfer. There are new rules/times because there is a new,different and bigger audience now.

To think that these Marvel movies are just a fad, and will go away maybe selling them short. In fact they will get much bigger. Because of these movies the Marvel heroes will always be in the limelight. They will never fade back into the corner LCS from which the sprang. They have now been exposed to mainstream, and mainstream loves them.

Once the Inhumans get the Game of Thrones treatment they will be put on a big level just like Guardians of Galaxy.

Now on the other hand I could see the DC second rate heroes falling back because DC doesn't have the track record of making great movies like Marvel has.

 

 

 

Groot is not a bigger character than the Silver Surfer. He has more recent publicity than the Silver Surfer but that is like saying "Miley Cyrus is bigger than Madonna" because she has just been splashed all over the news. The fundamentals are not there, once he has an established a fanbase that has persisted for 40+ years and is still a favorite, then you can say he is bigger.

You don`t have to wait 40 years to deem who is bigger.

An example is Hunger Games and Harry Potter are bigger then Flash Gordon and Tarzan now.

New generations have new heroes.

 

Yeah those characters fan bases are gone and have not persisted. Just because Groot was in a hot movie that came out six months ago does not make him bigger than SS.

[1Cool]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

It is good for the hobby, as it has brought in much new interest and money.

I have been hearing movie speculation has been bad since Daredevil in 2003.

So far the majority of all comic book keys have gone up since 2003.

 

I think why people don`t chase non-keys is just about any Marvel comic book can be read on Marvel Unlimited. No challenge anymore.

At least with a key you got something that many people will covet.

 

Not true.

 

The vast majority of the movie-going public aren't interested in the books.

 

And there's little to no 'new money', just the same money being spent in different ways.

 

These days, it's all about the flip, because a large chunk of the people buying these books are experienced collectors and understand that they have a limited shelf-life. Buy high, seller higher...but don't be left holding the baby.

 

Hasn't this always been the case? Collector sells to dealer who sells to LCS who sells it to another collector for double the price. The biggest difference I see is the collector sells it online and it trades hands 5 times before settling in to the hands of another collector. All 5 of those guys get a small chunk of the pie rather then the dealer and LCS taking all the money.

[Hamlet]

I don't think this is the case though. I don't see a marked decline in E-bay prices for non-keys. When priced right at conventions, people still happily buy them. They are still selling in much the same way that they were five years ago. The market for non-keys hasn't changed much in an absolute sense, IMO.

 

However, the market for keys has exploded, so the market for non-keys looks trivial by comparison. Whether it is new collectors or existing collectors more comfortable with spending big money on keys, I think there has to be new money involved. I think there is a speculative frenzy for "hot" books related to movies, and you are right, I think most people involved know that they don't want to end up holding the books at the end.

 

In addition, though, there is an incredible complacency that no amount of money is too much to spend on blue chip SA Marvel keys. That is probably the more dangerous situation. The general consensus is that books like AF15 can never go down by much. That is a very, very dangerous assumption for the market to be making, and it will probably result in massive losses for a lot of people when the music stops.

 

 

And there's little to no 'new money', just the same money being spent in different ways.

 

These days, it's all about the flip, because a large chunk of the people buying these books are experienced collectors and understand that they have a limited shelf-life. Buy high, seller higher...but don't be left holding the baby.

[1Cool]

I don't think this is the case though. I don't see a marked decline in E-bay prices for non-keys. When priced right at conventions, people still happily buy them. They are still selling in much the same way that they were five years ago. The market for non-keys hasn't changed much in an absolute sense, IMO.

 

However, the market for keys has exploded, so the market for non-keys looks trivial by comparison. Whether it is new collectors or existing collectors more comfortable with spending big money on keys, I think there has to be new money involved. I think there is a speculative frenzy for "hot" books related to movies, and you are right, I think most people involved know that they don't want to end up holding the books at the end.

 

In addition, though, there is an incredible complacency that no amount of money is too much to spend on blue chip SA Marvel keys. That is probably the more dangerous situation. The general consensus is that books like AF15 can never go down by much. That is a very, very dangerous assumption for the market to be making, and it will probably result in massive losses for a lot of people when the music stops.

 

 

And there's little to no 'new money', just the same money being spent in different ways.

 

These days, it's all about the flip, because a large chunk of the people buying these books are experienced collectors and understand that they have a limited shelf-life. Buy high, seller higher...but don't be left holding the baby.

 

I completely disagree. 5 years ago dealers like FD or Dale use to be able to put up a nice selection of $3 books and they would be gone within a couple minutes. Now none but the hotter books seem to fly off the shelves even at the $3 price point. You could post up 100 nice not hot books on E-Bay and your sales would be a very slow trickle with a bunch of discounts needed to clear out some space. Has that always been so? I don't remember that being the case even 5 years ago. If a ton of money is all flowing to the hot books then less money is around for everything else.

[zosocane]

The general consensus is that books like AF15 can never go down by much. That is a very, very dangerous assumption for the market to be making, and it will probably result in massive losses for a lot of people when the music stops.

 

I think AF15 is in a class by itself and is not susceptible to "massive losses" if the market collapses. Other SA keys -- particularly Marvel SA keys because of their relatively abundant supply -- I don't disagree.

[delekkerste]

Whenever somebody tells me that AF #15 is the best comic book to buy, I always think of this:

 

"For a value investor, price has to be the starting point. It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough.

 

When people say flatly, “we only buy A” or “A is a superior asset class,” that sounds a lot like “we’d buy A at any price . . . and we’d buy it before B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.

 

Hopefully, if I offered to sell you my car, you’d ask the price before saying yes or no. Deciding on an investment without carefully considering the fairness of its price is just as silly. But when people decide without disciplined consideration of valuation that they want to own something, as they did with tech stocks in the late 1990s – or that they simply won’t own something, as they did with “junk bonds” in the 1970s and early 1980s – that’s just what they’re doing.

 

During the course of my 35 years in this business, investors’ biggest losses have come when they bought securities of what they thought were perfect companies – where nothing could go wrong – at prices assuming that degree of perfection . . .and more. They forgot that “good company” isn’t synonymous with “good investment.” Bottom line: there’s no such thing as a good idea regardless of price!"

 

- Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital chairman & billionaire

[MusterMark]

Whenever somebody tells me that AF #15 is the best comic book to buy, I always think of this:

 

"For a value investor, price has to be the starting point. It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough.

 

When people say flatly, “we only buy A” or “A is a superior asset class,” that sounds a lot like “we’d buy A at any price . . . and we’d buy it before B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.

 

Hopefully, if I offered to sell you my car, you’d ask the price before saying yes or no. Deciding on an investment without carefully considering the fairness of its price is just as silly. But when people decide without disciplined consideration of valuation that they want to own something, as they did with tech stocks in the late 1990s – or that they simply won’t own something, as they did with “junk bonds” in the 1970s and early 1980s – that’s just what they’re doing.

 

During the course of my 35 years in this business, investors’ biggest losses have come when they bought securities of what they thought were perfect companies – where nothing could go wrong – at prices assuming that degree of perfection . . .and more. They forgot that “good company” isn’t synonymous with “good investment.” Bottom line: there’s no such thing as a good idea regardless of price!"

 

- Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital chairman & billionaire

 

Thank you for that. (thumbs u

A great reminder.

 

[HighStakesComics]

Still some awfully big SA books that look cheap compared to others. Not that long ago FF #1/AF #15 traded close to 1:1. 5-7 years ago maybe? Mr. Park is correct. There is value of you look for it as well as potential pitfalls. I still feel this market has legs but as we enter the new year, sometimes the dogs of the DOW (or in this case gpa) can outperform the prior year's best speculative books.

[Hamlet]

FD seems to be doing brisk business in his $3 sales thread. Some of the books he lists are real good deals (and always have been), but they aren't what I would consider hot or key books. His sell-thru percentage seems pretty high.

 

When I look back at books I've bought on the boards and E-bay over the last five years, I've always gotten non-key books extremely cheaply. If you go back and look at five year old sales threads, you'll see some very good deals for plenty of non-key books, and a lot of them didn't sell.

 

If you put VG-FN SA Thors up for $5, they will sell. Ask for much more than that, and they sit. That's not new though. Most of my Thors cost in the $5-$7 range on the boards, and they were purchased 3-5 years ago.

 

 

I completely disagree. 5 years ago dealers like FD or Dale use to be able to put up a nice selection of $3 books and they would be gone within a couple minutes. Now none but the hotter books seem to fly off the shelves even at the $3 price point. You could post up 100 nice not hot books on E-Bay and your sales would be a very slow trickle with a bunch of discounts needed to clear out some space. Has that always been so? I don't remember that being the case even 5 years ago. If a ton of money is all flowing to the hot books then less money is around for everything else.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Still some awfully big SA books that look cheap compared to others. Not that long ago FF #1/AF #15 traded close to 1:1. 5-7 years ago maybe? Mr. Park is correct. There is value of you look for it as well as potential pitfalls. I still feel this market has legs but as we enter the new year, sometimes the dogs of the DOW (or in this case gpa) can outperform the prior year's best speculative books.

Agreed.