Beginning of Bull Market for Comic Books

[drbanner]

Better then most think.

Tom Brady, Mike Trout and LeBron James rookie cards average over a thousand, while Rogers and Luck constantly average $500.

For every one Walking Dead there are like 5 modern sport card rookies that are red hot.

 

Skipping the junk overproduced 1990s we find some modern sport cards have value.

 

How about the vintage sports card market? Have prices for the 40's-80's "key" sports cards held their value, or depreciated since their peak in the 90's(?)?

[ComicConnoisseur]

Better then most think.

Tom Brady, Mike Trout and LeBron James rookie cards average over a thousand, while Rogers and Luck constantly average $500.

For every one Walking Dead there are like 5 modern sport card rookies that are red hot.

 

Skipping the junk overproduced 1990s we find some modern sport cards have value.

 

How about the vintage sports card market? Have prices for the 40's-80's "key" sports cards held their value, or depreciated since their peak in the 90's(?)?

The rookie vintage keys have skyrocketed, just like the Marvel silver age keys.

Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth key cards keep going up, just like AF#15.

[Bookery]

I just hit up 3 stores thru out Ohio and each of them was completely out of anything but the bottom tier hot books. Each of them had boxes and boxes and boxes of common books including a bunch of nice Silver-Age books which appeared to be collecting some serious dust. I'd think 5 years ago people would be hitting the boxes in hopes of finding a nice looking common book but now the shop owners hear is "show me the keys" or so they tell me.

 

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

[Hamlet]

I know Deadpool's fanbase is huge because people buy other Deadpool appearances besides just NM98. They may not pay big money for them, but they sell. Likewise, Harley Quinn sells plenty of comics aside from her first appearance.

 

I'm not so sure about Cable. If he had a huge real fan base, would RMA be finding his second appearance in dollar boxes?

 

"Its the 2nd appearance of Cable. Drawn by Rob Liefeld.

The amazing thing isn't that it is in the dollar box. The amazing thing is that 87 isn't. "

 

 

We all know how the older demographic of collectors feel about Mr. Liefeld, Cable, and Deadpool.

 

But there is no denying the fact all three have large fan bases, and that there many people who love that New Mutants run.

 

Poo poo it all you want, but for a lot of people, it brings back happy memories.

Me being one.

 

The first comic related words my niece ever spoke was, "Cable! Boom Boom!".

Guy behind the counter about fell down when he heard a 2 year old girl yell those names in his shop, haha!

[Gatsby77]

It's just weird for me as someone who lived through the New Mutants / X-Force craze to truly wrap my mind around Deadpool having outstripped Cable.

 

I know that it's happened, obviously, but back in 1991 New Mutants 98 was an $8-$10 book where New Mutants 87 was a $60-70 book.

 

And again, if you were collecting Marvel superheroes in the early '90s, you bought New Mutants 93-100 off the stands (and probably in multiples), whereas 86-89 went for big money.

[Hamlet]

I think that the issue here is that the Punisher as a character is no longer "hot". Interest in the character has been in decline for at least 20 years.

 

It's not that Punisher collectors are focusing on just ASM 129. It's that most of the Punisher collectors have lost interest, and the people interested in "keys" are buying ASM 129.

 

I think a good way to think of it is that we have a fan base for collecting actual comics that has held pretty steady, and then we've added a massive number of speculators that are only interested in keys.

 

The original fan base is still there buying the non-key books for rational non-key prices, its just we have the speculators on top of it driving key prices through the roof. You can still sell a VG ASM 135 on E-bay for $15-$20. That seems like a rational price for a character that has been in decline for 20 years.

 

This is a perfect example. I remember trying to collect ASM back issues in the late 1980s early 1990s when Punisher was hot, and those early Punisher appearances (135, GS Spidey 4, those issues with Nightcralwer in the 160s, 201 and 202, etc...) were always so much more expensive than the surrounding issues.

 

The demand for early appearances of characters is evident by the fact that they are noted in Overstreet; why even note something like the 4th appearance of Kraven? Because collectors wanted that info.

[mintcollector]

I think it is fallacious to say we are in a bull market for comics. We are in a bull market for "keys"... but not for comics overall. In a true bull market, as with stocks, the vast majority of issues will rise. If you have a broad-mix portfolio of stocks, your mutual fund will increase in a general bull market... not just the "hot" stocks.

 

If you had a broad mix of comics... say 1000 mixed issues, most likely your portfolio has dropped, even despite the keys in your collection, over the past few years. Most non-key silver and bronze are selling for well below guide right now. Check out golden-age values on GPA... drops of often 25-50% or more on basic issues... even big titles like Batman, All Star, numerous others.

 

Despite all of the movies, our new-comic sales dropped again last year (only slightly this time) as they have most of the past 15 years. Our file customers are half the number they were a decade ago.

 

Now if you "invested" only in keys the past few years, you did very well. It's like having a portfolio of only NASDAQ high-tech stocks before the bubble burst years back. However... as that example shows... timing is critical.

 

I want things to turn around for ALL comics... not just the darling-of-the-moment issues. There's no way to do this, however, if we don't understand the true dynamics going on in the marketplace... we have to look beyond the "shiny" to determine if we're looking at gold or fool's-gold.

 

There's one of the main points I was going to make, right there!

 

Now I don't need to.

 

 

Yes, one of the reasons why this market is like nothing else before: keys (and anything that could become a key) are going crazy, while everything else is mess. Why is New Mutants #87 such a "hot" book, while New Mutants #88 can still be found in dollar bins? Why is Iron Man #55 smoking, while Captain Marvel #26 is cheap? Why is Spidey #129 still holding its own, while Spidey #135 (and, for that matter, all the rest of the Punisher apperances) languishes?

 

What about Hulk #272? And, for that matter, does anyone know off the top of their heads what Rocket Racoon's NEXT comic book appearance is? How about the second appearance of Harley Quinn?

 

No, this market is radically different from all that came before, and I don't know if that's a good thing or not. It USED to be "I have Spidey #129...what OTHER Punisher appearances do you have??"

 

Now, it's "I'll just take Spidey #129, thanks. No interest in anything else."

 

In my best Cenk Uygur voice..."Of course!" The Overstreet Comic Book price Guide lists ASM 129 as a top ten 'bronze age' key. In the mindset of the speculator that is all that matters. Until the 'money, money, money' mindset starts to prove itself faulty by way of depressed sales on even key issues, this will continue to only get worse.

 

Don't worry though times do change. In the 1980's wasn't there a time when even key issues experienced a downturn? If this happens again I don't think there will be a turnaround any time soon.

 

And if this does happen you better believe that the market will be in a downward frenzy as speculators panic that all those plastic encased overpriced pieces of newsprint they bought will not be funding their retirement.

[Vikingreed]

It's just weird for me as someone who lived through the New Mutants / X-Force craze to truly wrap my mind around Deadpool having outstripped Cable.

 

I know that it's happened, obviously, but back in 1991 New Mutants 98 was an $8-$10 book where New Mutants 87 was a $60-70 book.

 

And again, if you were collecting Marvel superheroes in the early '90s, you bought New Mutants 93-100 off the stands (and probably in multiples), whereas 86-89 went for big money.

 

Yeah, I agree.

Cable was HUGE.

I did like the DP character, but I never imagined his popularity growing to where it is either...

[Vikingreed]

I know Deadpool's fanbase is huge because people buy other Deadpool appearances besides just NM98. They may not pay big money for them, but they sell. Likewise, Harley Quinn sells plenty of comics aside from her first appearance.

 

I'm not so sure about Cable. If he had a huge real fan base, would RMA be finding his second appearance in dollar boxes?

 

"Its the 2nd appearance of Cable. Drawn by Rob Liefeld.

The amazing thing isn't that it is in the dollar box. The amazing thing is that 87 isn't. "

 

 

We all know how the older demographic of collectors feel about Mr. Liefeld, Cable, and Deadpool.

 

But there is no denying the fact all three have large fan bases, and that there many people who love that New Mutants run.

 

Poo poo it all you want, but for a lot of people, it brings back happy memories.

Me being one.

 

The first comic related words my niece ever spoke was, "Cable! Boom Boom!".

Guy behind the counter about fell down when he heard a 2 year old girl yell those names in his shop, haha!

 

Good point.

 

Perhaps Cable has indeed faded. Crazy #87 still demands the price it does, however.

"Just in case" movie related, I suppose.

 

[1Cool]

It can't be long until Cable is pulled into a show or movie. In terms of "cool" new characters I'd put him in the top of most list.

[AmazingComics413]

 

Excellent thread with great discussion all around!

[Phantalien]

It can't be long until Cable is pulled into a show or movie. In terms of "cool" new characters I'd put him in the top of most list.

 

I hope they do. He was always a cool character. Loved him in the X-men animated series.

[Hamlet]

I better run out and buy twenty copies of NM87.

 

It can't be long until Cable is pulled into a show or movie. In terms of "cool" new characters I'd put him in the top of most list.

[1Cool]

I better run out and buy twenty copies of NM87.

 

It can't be long until Cable is pulled into a show or movie. In terms of "cool" new characters I'd put him in the top of most list.

 

They are getting tough to pick up - good luck!

[RockMyAmadeus]

Its the 2nd appearance of Cable. Drawn by Rob Liefeld.

 

The amazing thing isn't that it is in the dollar box. The amazing thing is that 87 isn't.

 

Ultimately, there are just so many books out there, that they can't all be worth big money. Someone has to own them all, and choose owning them over selling them. If NM 88 was a $10 book on average, that would mean there was $1.5 million dollars out there devoted to that single issue. There are probably thousands of issues that are that interesting to collectors as a whole. How many billions of dollars of comic inventory can there practically be?

 

I do think the speculators' focus on 1st appearances to the exclusion of just about every other aspect of comics is a little extreme. The FF "keys" now look a little strange, with the classic story in #51 left in the dust as almost worthless compared to the issues around it.

 

Most of the later McFarlane Spiderman issues are now tough sells at more than $2 in non-CGC grades. I'm waiting for people to decide that GL76 is no longer really worth anything because it is just good art and a new team-up.

 

And this is what makes it so completely different from all other comic market surges before it. Cable/Liefeld jokes aside, when the first wave of New Mutants fever hit, EVERY issue was worth something, not just #86 and #87. If #87 was a $65 book, #88 was a $30 book, and #89 was a $25 book (yes, these are real prices, that really happened.) I traded a #90 for a G/VG ASM #17 (yes, really, and I still have it.) I traded another #90 for a Batman #234 F/VF.

 

Now, #87 is a $50 book...and #90 is 25 cents.

 

If Batman #428 was a $30 book, then #419 was a $12 book, and #406 was a $10 book.

 

If Green Lantern #76 was a $50 book, #78 was a $25 book. Now, #76 is a $2,000 book in 9.4, while #78 is a $200 book.

 

And that's true up and down the market. It's all KEYS KEYS KEYS!!! all the time, and everything else is ignored to a greater degree than ever in comics history.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I just hit up 3 stores thru out Ohio and each of them was completely out of anything but the bottom tier hot books. Each of them had boxes and boxes and boxes of common books including a bunch of nice Silver-Age books which appeared to be collecting some serious dust. I'd think 5 years ago people would be hitting the boxes in hopes of finding a nice looking common book but now the shop owners hear is "show me the keys" or so they tell me.

 

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

 

This.

 

This is what makes this market so radically different from everything that has come before.

 

I, too, wonder how long this can last.

 

 

I go to conventions, and buy from the usual suspects that I like to buy from...and they happily discount the stuff I want, because I'm not buying their Hulk #181s, or their New Mutants #98s, or their ASM #194s, or their Ms. Marvel #1s, or whatever the flavor of the month "hot, must have!" book is...but I don't have an endless supply of money.

 

Have any of you followed the prices for Hulk #181s? The last three years have been complete and utter madness. Every grade, across the board, doubled, sometimes tripled....and still, the demand is unending.

 

But Hulk #183? #179? #200? #147? #120? They best be priced at $1, or 9.4s or above, or no one, but no one will buy them.

[Hamlet]

Here is the thing though--

 

The non-keys aren't being ignored. $200 for GL 78 is not ignoring it. If you would have told me in 1990 that anyone would ever pay $200 for ANY copy of GL78, I would have thought you were nuts.

 

The non-keys of most SA or early BA series sell briskly on E-bay for what any person not expecting Overstreet prices would consider quite a bit of money.

 

It's just not much compared to the keys.

 

For the most part, I don't think demand for the non-keys has changed dramatically from when I was collecting in the late 80s. It's just the demand for the keys (and the high-grade books) has gotten so crazy that it is overshadowed.

 

 

 

And this is what makes it so completely different from all other comic market surges before it. Cable/Liefeld jokes aside, when the first wave of New Mutants fever hit, EVERY issue was worth something, not just #86 and #87. If #87 was a $65 book, #88 was a $30 book, and #89 was a $25 book (yes, these are real prices, that really happened.) I traded a #90 for a G/VG ASM #17 (yes, really, and I still have it.) I traded another #90 for a Batman #234 F/VF.

 

Now, #87 is a $50 book...and #90 is 25 cents.

 

If Batman #428 was a $30 book, then #419 was a $12 book, and #406 was a $10 book.

 

If Green Lantern #76 was a $50 book, #78 was a $25 book. Now, #76 is a $2,000 book in 9.4, while #78 is a $200 book.

 

And that's true up and down the market. It's all KEYS KEYS KEYS!!! all the time, and everything else is ignored to a greater degree than ever in comics history.

[dupont2005]

Here is the thing though--

 

The non-keys aren't being ignored. $200 for GL 78 is not ignoring it. If you would have told me in 1990 that anyone would ever pay $200 for ANY copy of GL78, I would have thought you were nuts.

If you would have told me in 1990 that what is commonly known as NM would be considered F+ one day, that there would be encapsulated comics, that people would pay extra for a comic with a blank cover that wasn't a manufacturing error, and that every single comic that had ever been autographed at that point would be worth LESS than an unsigned copy, and that people would pay several multiples more, a thousand percent park up, for a comic so slightly higher in grade that they honestly couldn't tell for certainty it was, or why, and just counted on a handful of strangers in Florida to let them know. I wouldn't have believed it.

[Plantman]

I just hit up 3 stores thru out Ohio and each of them was completely out of anything but the bottom tier hot books. Each of them had boxes and boxes and boxes of common books including a bunch of nice Silver-Age books which appeared to be collecting some serious dust. I'd think 5 years ago people would be hitting the boxes in hopes of finding a nice looking common book but now the shop owners hear is "show me the keys" or so they tell me.

 

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

 

This.

 

This is what makes this market so radically different from everything that has come before.

 

I, too, wonder how long this can last.

 

 

I go to conventions, and buy from the usual suspects that I like to buy from...and they happily discount the stuff I want, because I'm not buying their Hulk #181s, or their New Mutants #98s, or their ASM #194s, or their Ms. Marvel #1s, or whatever the flavor of the month "hot, must have!" book is...but I don't have an endless supply of money.

 

Have any of you followed the prices for Hulk #181s? The last three years have been complete and utter madness. Every grade, across the board, doubled, sometimes tripled....and still, the demand is unending.

 

But Hulk #183? #179? #200? #147? #120? They best be priced at $1, or 9.4s or above, or no one, but no one will buy them.

 

Wait, the guy who sat on New Mutants #98 for years then sold most of his copies before the official movie announcement was made "wonder how long this can last"? I'm guessing you thought this craziness would wane before Sep. 18, 2014.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

We'll have to disagree about what constitutes "being ignored." I think a factor of 10, when it used to be a factor of 2, is pretty extreme.