MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[Get Marwood & I]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I made a graph once....

[RockMyAmadeus]

Keeping in mind that this is all hearsay from an anonymous source...

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

2) Diamond collects the orders from retailers and Diamond tells publishers what it needs to print (as opposed to Marvel just "printing what it wants", the absolutely ridiculous scenario a few people on here have suggested);

It's not either/or. It's both. Diamond tells publishers what they need to print AND the publishers then decide what they are going to print...and they print what they want (this should go without stating, but nevertheless, here we are.)

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

3) The publishers ship the entirety of the ordered books' print runs to Diamond who warehouses them (so yes, an invoice or solicit from Diamond would account for all of the case packs of a book produced by a publisher);

Emphasis on ORDERED books. That does NOT...repeat, does NOT...necessarily include "all of the case packs of a book produced." It frequently MAY...but not always.

Like others have done here before, if this anonymous conversation actually took place, since we don't know how the questions were asked, and whether they were leading or not, they could very well have been tailored to get the answers wanted.

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

5) Marvel, in particular, is and has been very "tight" with their print runs (the +~3% printing overage for damage returns/courtesy copies was indirectly confirmed by the rep through an example where he said that "if Diamond asks for 100 books, Marvel will send 103");

But that does NOT mean that Marvel will only PRINT 103.

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

6) Specific question asked by me-  "So the numbers reported by Diamond to comichron are largely representative of the actual print numbers?"

His pat answer-  "Yes"

This anonymous "Diamond rep" is NOT in a position to know that, and without documentation, it's just as much of a guess as everyone else's. Diamond reps aren't publishers, nor printers, and would not have nor need this information to do their jobs.

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

7) Whatever overstock inventory sales or distributions Diamond conducts are directly authorized by the publishers themselves and are limited in nature 

Of course. "Limited to what" is the whole question.

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

NO, publishers do not just print "whatever they want" and books that nobody ordered.  

YES, publishers print whatever they want...and always have...including books that "nobody ordered" (which is the model for 8 decades of newsstand distribution.)

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

YES, on rare and intermittent occasions overstock from unused, remaindered case packs of a limited quantity of books will sometimes be sold off or distributed as courtesy copies.

As has been told to you by multiple eyewitness sources, the publishers give "courtesy copies" to retailers at the various Diamond summits held throughout the year to the tune of hundreds and hundreds of copies. That doesn't account for whatever other distribution the publishers do completely independently of Diamond. Diamond is only a distributor. Their only function is to tell the publishers what they need to fill orders. They do not decide print runs. They do not decide what the publishers do with the publisher's books.

4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

YES, one can (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to not only ascertain print numbers, but also to estimate how many of a ratio variant for a particular book were printed (though that estimate will likely skew high in most cases).

NO, one cannot (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to ascertain print numbers of anything, for the following (already stated multiple times) reasons:

1. The number reported by Comichron includes all versions of each issue sold/distributed, INCLUDING variants. Since those numbers aren't broken down, we have no idea how many of that "number" is regular copies, store exclusive copies distributed by Diamond (see ASM #666), and or other variants (of which there can be several for any given issue.) This discrepancy is not statistically negligible.

2. The number reported by Comichron only includes a single month's worth of each issue sold/distributed. Any copies sold in following months of the SAME issue are NOT included in that original number, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible.

3. The number reported by Comichron only includes sales/distribution in North America. It does not include any information about those same issues sold/distributed elsewhere in the world, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible. 

4. The "ratio" is an ordering mechanism. Because of the factors above, it's impossible to know whether trying to apply that "number" to the "copies sold" number will result in a number that is far too high, right on, or far too low....and that's assuming those sales are anywhere near a reasonable representation of the print run in the first place. Once you factor in all of these unknown variables, skewing the data every which way, trying to apply the "ratio" to the "copies reported sold" number renders the "result" statistically meaningless. If I was a statistician, I could graph all these variables and demonstrate how these variables can skew, but I'm not.

Finally...YES, the explanation above DOES seem like common sense to those with only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works. But it's not accurate, for all the reasons given. Necessary disclaimer: there's nothing wrong with having only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works, but that limitation means that reasonable sounding, but actually inaccurate, explanations get made and accepted in this hobby for why things are the way they are.

Edited October 29, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[Get Marwood & I]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

Nice copy.  Looked minty too.  You still made a killing though on the sale, given the time period.  

-J.

I know. But I could've bought a bloody car with it now. Oh well. Still wondering how it made it over here to my little LCS....

[WoWitHurts]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

All of the things that have been said can be true and there can still be 200+ additional copies of any comic book.  Publishers print extra for damages, they print extra for giveaways, they print extra for artists/writers, they print extras for employees.  While that doesn't do anything much for comics with 20,000+ copies, since 200 is just 1%, it doesn't matter much.  But, if someone says there's only 100 of a particular book, that's very, very hard to believe, because it doesn't make sense for a publisher to waste the time on so few books unless they're planning a big "limited to 100 copies" extravaganza (and even then, you know there are A/P artist proofs, etc.).  There are likely to be 200+ additional copies of everything, unless the whole point was to be numbered "out of 100" from the start.  Simple calculations on books like ASM #667 Dell'Otto compared to the CGC census for other books of similar value (value is the main reason any books are sent to CGC), you'll get estimates of 400 to 600 copies for ASM #667 Dell'Otto... and that's assuming there aren't any leftovers stacked somewhere beyond those 400 to 600.

In the 90's while on the printers comp list we got one of everything that came out of 3 printers. 1000's of books, hardcovers, soft covers, trades, it was crazy.

[Jaydogrules]

4 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Keeping in mind that this is all hearsay from an anonymous source...

It's not either/or. It's both. Diamond tells publishers what they need to print AND the publishers then decide what they are going to print...and they print what they want (this should go without stating, but nevertheless, here we are.)

Emphasis on ORDERED books. That does NOT...repeat, does NOT...necessarily include "all of the case packs of a book produced." It frequently MAY...but not always.

Like others have done here before, if this anonymous conversation actually took place, since we don't know how the questions were asked, and whether they were leading or not, they could very well have been tailored to get the answers wanted.

But that does NOT mean that Marvel will only PRINT 103.

This anonymous "Diamond rep" is NOT in a position to know that, and without documentation, it's just as much of a guess as everyone else's. Diamond reps aren't publishers, nor printers, and would not have nor need this information to do their jobs.

Of course. "Limited to what" is the whole question.

YES, publishers print whatever they want...and always have...including books that "nobody ordered" (which is the model for 8 decades of newsstand distribution.)

As has been told to you by multiple eyewitness sources, the publishers give "courtesy copies" to retailers at the various Diamond summits held throughout the year to the tune of hundreds and hundreds of copies. That doesn't account for whatever other distribution the publishers do completely independently of Diamond. Diamond is only a distributor. Their only function is to tell the publishers what they need to fill orders. They do not decide print runs. They do not decide what the publishers do with the publisher's books.

NO, one cannot (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to ascertain print numbers of anything, for the following (already stated multiple times) reasons:

1. The number reported by Comichron includes all versions of each issue sold/distributed, INCLUDING variants. Since those numbers aren't broken down, we have no idea how many of that "number" is regular copies, store exclusive copies distributed by Diamond (see ASM #666), and or other variants (of which there can be several for any given issue.) This discrepancy is not statistically negligible.

2. The number reported by Comichron only includes a single month's worth of each issue sold/distributed. Any copies sold in following months of the SAME issue are NOT included in that original number, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible.

3. The number reported by Comichron only includes sales/distribution in North America. It does not include any information about those same issues sold/distributed elsewhere in the world, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible. 

4. The "ratio" is an ordering mechanism. Because of the factors above, it's impossible to know whether trying to apply that "number" to the "copies sold" number will result in a number that is far too high, right on, or far too low....and that's assuming those sales are anywhere near a reasonable representation of the print run in the first place. Once you factor in all of these unknown variables, skewing the data every which way, trying to apply the "ratio" to the "copies reported sold" number renders the "result" statistically meaningless. If I was a statistician, I could graph all these variables and demonstrate how these variables can skew, but I'm not.

Finally...YES, the explanation above DOES seem like common sense to those with only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works. But it's not accurate, for all the reasons given. Necessary disclaimer: there's nothing wrong with having only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works, but that limitation means that reasonable sounding, but actually inaccurate, explanations get made and accept in this hobby for why things are the way they are.

You're right.  But as has also been shown before, the ASM 667 Dell'otto is an outlier in almost every possible way, so most of this is not relevant to that book.

And again, according to the Diamond rep, given that comichron reports actual print number within about 3%, sure you can reasonably use it to estimate numbers on variants (on the high side or course).

-J.

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

5 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

I know. But I could've bought a bloody car with it now. Oh well. Still wondering how it made it over here to my little LCS....

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

[Get Marwood & I]

Just now, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

England ordered one copy apparently 

[Jaydogrules]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

You mean 100.

-J.

[WoWitHurts]

Just now, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

My particular copy came from Graham Crackers Comics in Chicago. They are a pretty sizable chain and the owner told me via email that they only got 4 ASM 667's. 3 went to holds and one went to the floor. I don't think any copies went to the shops in St. louis as I am friendly with several of them. It was a sparse book for sure at least in the areas I frequent.

[valiantman]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

You mean 100.

-J.

Ha!  You're arguing against yourself, you know. 

[valiantman]

More books for our comparison...

[Jaydogrules]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Ha!  You're arguing against yourself, you know. 

Lol no, but you're arguing against facts. 

How about a graph showing the percentages of the books' print runs on the census instead?  

-J.

[valiantman]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

Lol no, but you're arguing against facts. 

How about a graph showing the percentages of the books' print runs on the census instead?  

-J.

Where would we get that info?  That's the whole point of this discussion.   NO ONE KNOWS.  We do have the CGC Census, though.  Hence... graphs.

[valiantman]

8 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

9 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

England ordered one copy apparently 

Seriously, though, this is an important point.  If you know for a fact that your local comic shop did not order anywhere near 100 copies of ASM #667, then there's no way they earned the ASM #667 variant you purchased.  They got one some other way, some way that is NOT part of the retailer order incentive program.  An extra copy, and if there's a way for extra copies to get out, then we're back in the world of facts that contradict -J.

[Get Marwood & I]

4 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

England ordered one copy apparently 

That didn't make sense did it 

No, my LCS didn't order anywhere near 100 regulars so I don't know why he got the variant. Fifty copies would have been a stretch actually. Maybe it was a balls up? And he only charged me £8.99 for it (I think) so it's not like he charged me a premium having had to over order to get it. One of life's oddities.

I don't really know why this thread rumbles on and on. There is one undeniable scenario, regardless of numbers. The book is damn scarce. 

 

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, valiantman said:

Where would we get that info?  That's the whole point of this discussion.   NO ONE KNOWS.  We do have the CGC Census, though.  Hence... graphs.

The announced print run of WD 100  foil was 250.  The commonly accepted consensus for Bats 608RRP, wolverine 1 Campbell, siege 3, Saga 1 3rd print are all in the 400-500 range.  The diamond solicit for the ASM 667 said one case pack with no more than 250.

Which is all academic SINCE ALL THOSE OTHER BOOKS HAVE MASSIVE MORE QUANTITIES ON THE CENSUS compared to the 667.

-J.

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Jaydogrules said:

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Where would we get that info?  That's the whole point of this discussion.   NO ONE KNOWS.  We do have the CGC Census, though.  Hence... graphs.

The announced print run of WD 100  foil was 250.  The commonly accepted consensus for Bats 608RRP, wolverine 1 Campbell, siege 3, Saga 1 3rd print are all in the 400-500 range.  The diamond solicit for the ASM 667 said one case pack with no more than 250.

Which is all academic SINCE ALL THOSE OTHER BOOKS HAVE MASSIVE MORE QUANTITIES ON THE CENSUS compared to the 667.

-J.

There are far more copies of those books on the CGC census than there should be.  All of these books have higher "print runs" than the announcements.  What's that?  An announcement wasn't telling the truth?  You mean... marketers lie?!?  Call the police, grandma, people whose job is to get interest and excitement going sometimes exaggerate!  It's an outrage!  @Jaydogrules yells at cloud.

[paul747]

On 10/29/2019 at 2:24 PM, valiantman said:

Valiant man ,

I respect your info and opinion more than most on these boards.  I also agree 100 percent that if you look at it like this it should be 450 copies. I think I know who J talked to and its no ordinary rep. The insider rumor about this book, Just a rumor was that hardly anyone ordered the 100 copies to qualify for the book and even with damage estimates one case was ordered. The other thing Jay has been saying is that the rumor was that a good part of that case was damaged, I have personally heard this as well. I also agree that someone does have some copies and is slow playing it to not crash the market and there could be 450 copies, but in my opinion i just don't think there are. I do really think there is some truth in what Jay has been saying about this book. I do not own 1 copy and never have. I remember when the book was solicited saying "why would you order 100 copies, whats in that book?"  the More time that expires, we will get answers. If a bunch of low grades come out that might show that there are some damaged copies. If someone was hoarding it seems like they would release some damaged or low grade copies as well. 100 percent agree that diamond could also ship the variant to accounts that did not order 100.

Edited November 1, 2019 by paul747

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, valiantman said:

There are far more copies of those books on the CGC census than there should be.  All of these books have higher "print runs" than the announcements.  What's that?  An announcement wasn't telling the truth?  You mean... marketers lie?!?  Call the police, grandma, people whose job is to get interest and excitement going sometimes exaggerate!  It's an outrage!  @Jaydogrules yells at cloud.

Okay so you disagree with hobby consensus and you think Image is a liar.  Got it lol.  Which one of us is shouting at clouds? 

That still doesn't change the fact that, even using any print number higher than 250 for the 667 only skews the percentages of copies submitted lower and lower, which only makes the book look even more of the outlier that it is.

-J.

[valiantman]

5 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

16 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

18 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

England ordered one copy apparently 

That didn't make sense did it 

No, my LCS didn't order anywhere near 100 regulars so I don't know why he got the variant. Fifty copies would have been a stretch actually. Maybe it was a balls up? And he only charged me £8.99 for it (I think) so it's not like he charged me a premium having had to over order to get it. One of life's oddities.

I don't really know why this thread rumbles on and on. There is one undeniable scenario, regardless of numbers. The book is damn scarce. 

You're adding a fact to the discussion that goes against the loudest voice in this topic.  Copies were given out which were not earned.  You have one.  There are undoubtedly more.  Thank you for adding this information.