MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[Prince Namor]

3 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I never suggested that a simple equation is going to give you an exact, reliable number. Yes, the higher the ratio, the harder it would be to determine how many incentives were distributed, based on the sales estimates. It makes sense that a retailer that normally orders 20 copies of a book will push up an order to get a 1:25 incentive, but perhaps not a 1:50 or 1:100 (unless someone orders one and the additional regular versions are essentially paid for). But it's a starting point. 

How is it a starting point?

For one thing, when Comichron lists the sales number, say 100,000, that number INCLUDES all of the variants printed for it. How do you do the reverse math on that? Is the made up 3% a part of that sales number or is that added on before you do the reverse math? How do you even DO the reverse math to figure it out?

And even if you figure out a formula for it, THEN, you have to take into consideration what I outlined above.

It just doesn't add up. Sorry.

I get WHY people do it. It just isn't mathematically logical and because we don't know any of the actual numbers, it's not realistically grounded.

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

9 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

How is it a starting point?

For one thing, when Comichron lists the sales number, say 100,000, that number INCLUDES all of the variants printed for it. How do you do the reverse math on that? Is the made up 3% a part of that sales number or is that added on before you do the reverse math? How do you even DO the reverse math to figure it out?

And even if you figure out a formula for it, THEN, you have to take into consideration what I outlined above.

It just doesn't add up. Sorry.

I get WHY people do it. It just isn't mathematically logical and because we don't know any of the actual numbers, it's not realistically grounded.

 

There's something called algebra which would allow you to very easily come up with a formula to break the big number down. But I get that that wouldn't take ordering differences into the equation.

Here's an easy question; Let's say that in a run of 10 issues of a comic, every issue had a 1:10 variant and a 1:20 variant. Barring information that these variants were distributed in an additional way, would you expect there to be more 1:10 or 1:20 variants available on the market? Why?

Edited October 31, 2019 by GeeksAreMyPeeps

[Lazyboy]

14 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

14 hours ago, valiantman said:

I hope there's some other documentation that says there was only one case of ASM #667 Dell'Otto printed, because this ain't it.

No comment either way.

No comment?

If somebody posted what they thought was my source of information and that it didn't support what I was saying, I would very quickly clear up that it was not my source.

[Lazyboy]

10 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Here's an easy question; Let's say that in a run of 10 issues of a comic, every issue had a 1:10 variant and a 1:20 variant. Barring information that these variants were distributed in an additional way, would you expect there to be more 1:10 or 1:20 variants available on the market? Why?

Available on the market? When? Regardless, there are too many variables to say.

Printed? Impossible to say.

Distributed to stores during the release week? Almost certainly the 1:10, for obvious reasons.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

1 minute ago, Lazyboy said:

Available on the market? When? Regardless, there are too many variables to say.

Printed? Impossible to say.

Distributed to stores during the release week? Almost certainly the 1:10, for obvious reasons.

Apparently it's not obvious to everyone, since it's been posted multiple times that you can't determine anything by the ratios.

And I'm talking availability, not print numbers. But logically, it doesn't make sense for a company to print huge amounts in excess if they're not going to distribute them. Yes, we have evidence of variant sales after the initial distribution, and giveaways at retailer presentations. And it's important to incorporate that information into any estimate of how many books might be available on the after-market. I don't think it makes business sense to store books indefinitely in a warehouse, so I think it's safe after some period of time to assume that there isn't an additional stockpile somewhere.

[the blob]

Do marvel and dc still let their employees take home a lot of stuff? In the 90s they did. Different times, yes, but could explain an inclination to print a few extras.

[the blob]

Anyway, an extra 10 copies in the census can easily be explained by folks realizing a book is worth stabbing and doing it. Not everyone slabs. It's a $15-50 expense. I have hundreds of books that are worth stabbing. I do not have the funds to do it.

[Prince Namor]

55 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

There's something called algebra which would allow you to very easily come up with a formula to break the big number down.

Do it. How?

You have four incentive variants - 1:10, 1:25, 1:50 and 1:100, based upon the concept you guys use, with no idea what the original starting A cover print run is. 

I want to see someone try and do it. I believe it maybe CAN be done. But I want to see it.

55 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

But I get that that wouldn't take ordering differences into the equation.

Of course not. That's a SECOND reason it doesn't work.

Here's a THIRD, that I've seen happen. Let's say in a surprise move at the last moment, Marvel announces J. Scott Campbell is doing the 1:25 cover. Suddenly, a whole bunch of stores that normally order 12 copies of the book, decide to up their order to 20, because they feel they can sell that variant.

BUT, because Marvel doesn't announce it until a week before Final Order Cutoff, only about HALF of the stores (who know what they're doing) are aware of it, so only HALF up their order. 

That still massively increases the amount of 1:10's, right?

Well, no. Because each variant COSTS the store - they don't get them free, they're just allowed to order as many as they want based upon the A cover purchase - so maybe the cover sucks and they don't think they can sell it and they don't order extra copies of it.

Can you see why this math doesn't work? WAY too many variables that you just don't know.

55 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Here's an easy question; Let's say that in a run of 10 issues of a comic, every issue had a 1:10 variant and a 1:20 variant. Barring information that these variants were distributed in an additional way, would you expect there to be more 1:10 or 1:20 variants available on the market? Why?

No way of knowing with just the variables you've offered. See above.

[Prince Namor]

43 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

But logically, it doesn't make sense for a company to print huge amounts in excess if they're not going to distribute them. 

No one is saying it's huge. We're saying no one knows what it is. Between damages that occur in shipping between Marvel to Diamond and damages that occur in Diamond shipping throughout the US (you have no idea how bad this can be), to Free giveaways, to value packs in Five Below, to corporate copies, to shortages, to world wide distribution... you just don't know how many they may print. You don't know.

Diamond WANTS you to believe the print run is tight, so that you order more to get the incentive.

Marvel WANTS you to believe the print run is tight, so that you order more to get the incentive. 

They have an AGENDA in this. 

Has the HISTORY of this hobby not taught us anything???

The secrecy behind it means there is information you DON'T know that could change your view of it. In my lifetime, that ALWAYS means things are not what they seem.

[valiantman]

14 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

 Welcome to the boards.

But seriously, @valiantman I would be curious to see this same info for, let's say, the #667 Hans Fantastic Four anniversary variant, which was the only variant originally announced for that issue until after the initial FOC when the Dell'otto got added, and was an unlimited order variant, with none of those counting toward the "100" to get the Dell'otto.  

https://www.diamondcomics.com/Home/1/1/3/819?articleID=110712

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Thanks man.  

So we're saying there were 225 copies of this variant in one case pack, just like the regular issue ? 

Do you feel like or mind posting just one more?  I'd be curious to see this for the Campbell colour variant for #648, Diamond # SEP100572.  (Not trying to be greedy, last one, promise .)

-J.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

8 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Thanks man.  

So we're saying there were 225 copies of this variant in one case pack, just like the regular issue ? 

Do you feel like or mind posting just one more?  I'd be curious to see this for the Campbell colour variant for #648, Diamond # SEP100572.  (Not trying to be greedy, last one, promise .)

-J.

56 page book... looks like 130 copies fit in the case.

Edited October 31, 2019 by valiantman

[Shoomanfoo]

2 hours ago, the blob said:

Do marvel and dc still let their employees take home a lot of stuff? In the 90s they did. Different times, yes, but could explain an inclination to print a few extras.

It’s pretty safe to say that anyone who works in the corporate world of for a corporation in general.

Theres no freebies or giveaways or preferential treatment especial at a lower to mid level.

Its bad business because there is no gain from it.

Corporate does not care about “hooking up employees”

Edited October 31, 2019 by Shoomanfoo

[Jaydogrules]

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Thanks man this helps.  You probably already know where I'm going here...

So we have seen four of these.

1) ASM 667 Regular, 225 per case pack

2) ASM 667 Hans variant, 225 per case pack

3) ASM 648 Campbell Colour 1:100, 130 per case pack (I notice wonky dimensions for that case size too)

4) ASM 667 Dell'otto, 1:100, 1 (one) per case pack (?!)

The ASM 648 had a print run of about 77,000.

The ASM 667 had a print run of about 71,000.

The colour 648 and 667, under typical circumstances, would expect to have comparable amounts of 1:100's produced, obviously a few more of the 648, give or take, 60 more copies of it, versus the 667 if stores ordered even quantities of 100 to qualify (we already know that doesn't happen though, but let's say for the sake of argument it did here), but either way we would not expect there to be several hundreds/thousands more of the 648 Campbell variant being produced than the 667 Dell'otto based on orders received by Diamond.

So based on that, what would be your explanation for why there were 130 copies of another rare ASM per case pack and only 1 (one) copy, allegedly, of the 667 per case pack according to these solicits ? If you were to check the solicit for the regular issue of 648, i would gather it would show 130 copies of it per case pack, just as the 667 shows 225 per case pack for both the regular issue and the other variant (the 648 was a double sized issue, hence the 130 per case pack versus 225).  But not the Dell'otto...  One book in a case pack does not sound plausible to me.

-J.

 

 

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Thanks man this helps.  You probably already know where I'm going here...

So we have seen four of these.

1) ASM 667 Regular, 225 per case pack

2) ASM 667 Hans variant, 225 per case pack

3) ASM 648 Campbell Colour 1:100, 130 per case pack (I notice wonky dimensions for that case size too)

4) ASM 667 Dell'otto, 1:100, 1 (one) per case pack (?!)

The ASM 648 had a print run of about 77,000.

The ASM 667 had a print run of about 71,000.

The colour 648 and 667, under typical circumstances, would expect to have comparable amounts of 1:100's produced, obviously a few more of the 648, give or take, 60 more copies of it, versus the 667 if stores ordered even quantities of 100 to qualify (we already know that doesn't happen though, but let's say for the sake of argument it did here), but either way we would not expect there to be several hundreds/thousands more of the 648 Campbell variant being produced than the 667 Dell'otto based on orders received by Diamond.

So based on that, what would be your explanation for why there were 130 copies of another rare ASM per case pack and only 1 (one) copy, allegedly, of the 667 per case pack according to these solicits ? If you were to check the solicit for the regular issue of 648, i would gather it would show 130 copies of it per case pack, just as the 667 shows 225 per case pack for both the regular issue and the other variant (the 648 was a double sized issue, hence the 130 per case pack versus 225).  But not the Dell'otto...  One book in a case pack does not sound plausible to me.

-J.

But, you understand that Diamond is NEVER going to put the number of cases printed into the item detail.  When the ASM #667 Dell'Otto says "Case Pack: 1" that doesn't mean that they printed one case any more than the 225 means 225 cases for ASM #667 or 130 means 130 cases for ASM #648.  "Case Pack" is never an order number.  It is put in the item description before orders are due.

The question being asked now is "what is your source for saying that ASM #667 Dell'Otto only had one case printed according to Diamond?"  Because "Case Pack: 1" isn't an order number.  It's an item description from long before retailers make any orders.

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, valiantman said:

But, you understand that Diamond is NEVER going to put the number of cases printed into the item detail.  When the ASM #667 Dell'Otto says "Case Pack: 1" that doesn't mean that they printed one case any more than the 225 means 225 cases for ASM #667 or 130 means 130 cases for ASM #648.  "Case Pack" is never an order number.  It is put in the item description before orders are due.

The question being asked now is "what is your source for saying that ASM #667 Dell'Otto only had one case printed according to Diamond?"  Because "Case Pack: 1" isn't an order number.  It's an item description from long before retailers make any orders.

I understand your point, trust me I get it.  

What I'm asking you is, based on the fact that both the regular issue and Hans variant for 667 show a case pack quantity of 225...

And the 1:100 Campbell variant for 648 shows a case pack of 130 (which the regular cover for that issue would also show)....

What do you personally believe that it means that there is only a "1" for the 667 Dell'otto, when it would, under normal circumstances, say "225", regardless of how many case packs were ultimately shipped ?

-J.

[valiantman]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

I understand your point, trust me I get it.  

What I'm asking you is, based on the fact that both the regular issue and Hans variant for 667 show a case pack quantity of 225...

And the 1:100 Campbell variant for 648 shows a case pack of 130 (which the regular cover for that issue would also show)....

What do you personally believe that it means that there is only a "1" for the 667 Dell'otto, when it would, under normal circumstances, say "225", regardless of how many case packs were ultimately shipped ?

-J.

That the ASM #667 Dell'Otto were going to be sent to retailers as singles.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #648, they'll need to order 130 copies.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #667 regular/Hans, they'll need to order 225 copies.  If a retailer decides they want a "case" of ASM #667 Dell'Otto, they'll be getting single copies (as many as they qualify and order).  That's what "Case Pack" means... always.

[Jaydogrules]

4 minutes ago, valiantman said:

That the ASM #667 Dell'Otto were going to be sent to retailers as singles.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #648, they'll need to order 130 copies.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #667 regular/Hans, they'll need to order 225 copies.  If a retailer decides they want a "case" of ASM #667 Dell'Otto, they'll be getting single copies (as many as they qualify and order).  That's what "Case Pack" means... always.

So why do you think Diamond sent out the Dell'otto 667 as "singles", and not the 648 Campbell colour, both 1:100's?

-J.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

That the ASM #667 Dell'Otto were going to be sent to retailers as singles.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #648, they'll need to order 130 copies.  If a retailer decides to order a full case of ASM #667 regular/Hans, they'll need to order 225 copies.  If a retailer decides they want a "case" of ASM #667 Dell'Otto, they'll be getting single copies (as many as they qualify and order).  That's what "Case Pack" means... always.

So why do you think Diamond sent out the Dell'otto 667 as "singles", and not the 648 Campbell colour, both 1:100's?

-J.

Because they sent the Dell'Otto books as singles. 

Why do you think Diamond would say "Case Pack: 1" on a book with a May 2011 item number when a book didn't have a final order cutoff until mid-July 2011, if that's supposed to be the actual number of cases printed (which Diamond would never tell anyone, much less make it searchable to everyone with access to their full item history database)?

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, valiantman said:

Because they sent the Dell'Otto books as singles. 

Why do you think Diamond would say "Case Pack: 1" on a book with a May 2011 item number when a book didn't have a final order cutoff until mid-July 2011, if that's supposed to be the actual number of cases printed (which Diamond would never tell anyone, much less make it searchable to everyone with access to their full item history database)?

No, what I'm asking you is "why" do you think Diamond would send out "singles" of the 667 Dell'otto, and not the 648 Campbell, both of which were 1:100's, from the same time frame, with what one would expect to be comparable order numbers (under normal circumstances, which this is clearly not, but let's say so for the sake of argument)?

-J.