1:10, 1:25, 1:50, 1:100 are DISTRIBUTION numbers, not PRINT RUN numbers.
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You should add this to the noob guide also

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uh oh, someone unleashed the Kracken. again. but its true.

 

Think of it like a math problem you're trying to solve. Think of what actual amounts you have, and what variables you need to solve for to calculate the total. Do you have or can you acquire that information?

 

And even if you could somewhat narrow it down to a broad estimate using a zillion unprovable assumptions, how reasonable is that estimate, and how useful is it in your decision making process? I'm not saying you can't make up your own estimate, but I'd include a zillion disclaimers before publicly posting it because I wouldn't want to be responsible for someone using that info to make financial decisions without all the info.

Edited by Revat

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Is there a way to get a best guess of how many incentive copies there are?

 

 

"Best" is very subjective, it probably depends on your uncertainty and acceptable margin of error tolerances. And possibly how good your financial projection analysis skills and software are, and how deep you care to dig for direct or assumed comparable information. If you have a phd in financial engineering you'll probably have a better guess than most of us, but how much better? I don't think it'd be that much. Just too many unknowns.

 

I don't think you'll get too far other than vague generalities over time that are still occasionally untrue (statistically relevant). "ASM ratio variants on average has higher print run than She Hulk ratio variants, except when there's a special reason it doesn't. " but how much higher? and what are the special exceptions? and does it even matter since we can't calculate either number?

 

 

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Is there a way to get a best guess of how many incentive copies there are?

 

 

"Best" is very subjective, it probably depends on your uncertainty and acceptable margin of error tolerances. And possibly how good your financial projection analysis skills and software are, and how deep you care to dig for direct or assumed comparable information. If you have a phd in financial engineering you'll probably have a better guess than most of us, but how much better? I don't think it'd be that much. Just too many unknowns.

 

I don't think you'll get too far other than vague generalities over time that are still occasionally untrue (statistically relevant). "ASM ratio variants on average has higher print run than She Hulk ratio variants, except when there's a special reason it doesn't. " but how much higher? and what are the special exceptions? and does it even matter since we can't calculate either number?

 

 

So for easy math, lets say it's a given there were 85,000 copies printed.

Could there ever be a case there were over 850 copies of a 1:100?

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Is there a way to get a best guess of how many incentive copies there are?

 

 

"Best" is very subjective, it probably depends on your uncertainty and acceptable margin of error tolerances. And possibly how good your financial projection analysis skills and software are, and how deep you care to dig for direct or assumed comparable information. If you have a phd in financial engineering you'll probably have a better guess than most of us, but how much better? I don't think it'd be that much. Just too many unknowns.

 

I don't think you'll get too far other than vague generalities over time that are still occasionally untrue (statistically relevant). "ASM ratio variants on average has higher print run than She Hulk ratio variants, except when there's a special reason it doesn't. " but how much higher? and what are the special exceptions? and does it even matter since we can't calculate either number?

 

 

So for easy math, lets say it's a given there were 85,000 copies printed.

Could there ever be a case there were over 850 copies of a 1:100?

 

And furthermore, do they err on the safe side and print 850, or do they know that not every retailer will buy 100 copies, so they under print at 500 copies?

 

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Great Post Rock.

 

"You cannot take "Comichron" numbers (which are, themselves, North American SALES numbers, NOT print numbers and which, by the way, INCLUDE the various incentives and variant sold, so it's impossible to sort them out), apply simple math (that is divide, say, the sales figure by 25 to "arrive" at the "1:25 print run") and come up with a number that has any meaning."

 

 

I personally believe there are a LOT viewer variants out there on some books than we even think. As Rock mentioned, just because a certain amount was sold does NOT mean that ='s a certain amount of the Variants.

 

Great post.

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Is there a way to get a best guess of how many incentive copies there are?

 

 

"Best" is very subjective, it probably depends on your uncertainty and acceptable margin of error tolerances. And possibly how good your financial projection analysis skills and software are, and how deep you care to dig for direct or assumed comparable information. If you have a phd in financial engineering you'll probably have a better guess than most of us, but how much better? I don't think it'd be that much. Just too many unknowns.

 

I don't think you'll get too far other than vague generalities over time that are still occasionally untrue (statistically relevant). "ASM ratio variants on average has higher print run than She Hulk ratio variants, except when there's a special reason it doesn't. " but how much higher? and what are the special exceptions? and does it even matter since we can't calculate either number?

 

 

So for easy math, lets say it's a given there were 85,000 copies printed.

Could there ever be a case there were over 850 copies of a 1:100?

 

Absolutely! It happens all the time,

 

No one knows how many publishers print...of anything...unless they release that information, and they almost never do.

 

Quick...what's the print run of Action Comics #1?

 

200,000 copies. That's the number you'll see, qualified AND unqualified, all over the internet.

 

Wait, no! It's 202,000 copies, according to sworn testimony in court by Jack Liebowitz, DC's famed co-owner and manager.

 

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/04/18/happy-birthday-superman-and-lois-lane-today-is-the-75th-anniversary-of-the-release-of-action-comics-1/

 

And, it sold out, right?

 

Wrong. Again, same testimony, it sold 130,000 copies...and both numbers are clearly estimates.

 

What's the print run of X-Men #94?

 

No one except Marvel knows.

 

How about TMNT #1?

 

That's easy! 3,000!

 

No. According to Peter, that number is actually 3,275.

 

http://tmnt-ninjaturtles.com/tmnt-1-1st-printing-mirage-print-run-factoid/

 

Does it make a difference...? In the long run, no. But in the short run, and the smaller the numbers get, it starts to make a larger difference. If you believed a book had a print run of 200 copies, and you paid what you consider a hefty price because of that "information", would you be upset if another 800 copies showed up...?

 

I think so.

 

For 99.999267% of all comics published, we simply don't know the print run information, because that information was never made public.

 

Nothing's changed with the incentives. We don't know. We can guess, but those guesses aren't even educated. We have no idea. Unless the publisher (or printer) reveals that information, our guesses are total shots in the dark.

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Hate to challenge the Emperor...

 

Great post.

Wrong description.

 

Distribution numbers?

Hardly.

 

They're incentive / ratio numbers.

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The only variant numbers we can be relatively sure on are specific store variants. Such as Midtown comics, Fried Pie, etc. I know someone that has order a "store" variant to sell at conventions, and when he placed the order with Marvel he placed the order for a specific number of copies. And we only know that number when the retailer decides to release it.

 

Of course these store variants complicate the published numbers even more because I am not sure they go through the standard diamond distribution. Midtown orders 2000 copies of a Campbell variant, and those are shipped directly to the store. Those issues are not going to be listed in the standard distribution numbers.

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The only variant numbers we can be relatively sure on are specific store variants. Such as Midtown comics, Fried Pie, etc. I know someone that has order a "store" variant to sell at conventions, and when he placed the order with Marvel he placed the order for a specific number of copies. And we only know that number when the retailer decides to release it.

 

Of course these store variants complicate the published numbers even more because I am not sure they go through the standard diamond distribution. Midtown orders 2000 copies of a Campbell variant, and those are shipped directly to the store. Those issues are not going to be listed in the standard distribution numbers.

 

even then, one can't be quite sure if that includes reserve copies, copies going to the creators, copies given back to marvel for archiving or promotions, etc. Yes, the 'bonus' number might not be huge, but it might be up to 10%+ depending on how many reserves were printed vs how many were needed.

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Hate to challenge the Emperor...

 

Great post.

Wrong description.

 

Distribution numbers?

Hardly.

 

They're incentive / ratio numbers.

 

You've just said the exact same thing, using different words.

 

Read the post again.

 

Here, I'll just say it again: for every, say, 25 copies a retailer orders (and Diamond DISTRIBUTES to them), they qualify to receive OR purchase ONE (1) copy of the incentive...that is, Diamond will DISTRIBUTE a SINGLE copy of the incentive for every 25 copies of the regular they order.

 

They are NOT distribution numbers in the sense of how many TOTAL COPIES are distributed, no. They ARE, however, distribution numbers in the sense of how many copies can be distributed to INDIVIDUAL retailers.

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The only variant numbers we can be relatively sure on are specific store variants. Such as Midtown comics, Fried Pie, etc. I know someone that has order a "store" variant to sell at conventions, and when he placed the order with Marvel he placed the order for a specific number of copies. And we only know that number when the retailer decides to release it.

 

Of course these store variants complicate the published numbers even more because I am not sure they go through the standard diamond distribution. Midtown orders 2000 copies of a Campbell variant, and those are shipped directly to the store. Those issues are not going to be listed in the standard distribution numbers.

 

Yes. If the books go directly from the publisher (via the printer) to the retailer, they aren't counted in Diamond's numbers, no.

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