Modern variant values... finding the logic?

[valiantman]

If you hate reading, lots of words, or logic, please go ahead and post something dumb now.

The rest of us will recognize and skip your replies.

 

(Otherwise, thoughtful responses are welcome!)

 

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Searching for the logic of the very high prices (relative to every other comic in the past 30 years) for some of the recent modern variants, I've seen it said that logic has nothing to do with it.

 

To that I say... phooey.

 

We might as well eliminate economics as a concept if we're not supposed to put any logic into collective market behavior.

 

So, moving on.

 

Until the first variant comics were identified (or separated) in the market, it can be said that every copy of any particular comic was basically just a standard piece from the available supply... with variations in pricing due to condition, of course... but not a lot else... for several decades. Obviously, key issues were worth more because of the content but all of those copies were the same... varying only by condition. Even a nothing-special random book would have some collective value for all existing copies. Whatever they're worth times however many exist.

 

Look at Action Comics #667 (not Amazing Spider-man #667), which we might say is a nothing-special random comic.

Let's say there are 50,000 remaining in existence more than 25 years after it was published. Each remaining copy being worth about $2 each is probably not a surprise to anyone because most comics are "worth" 25cents, or 50cents, or $1 or so with the idea that actually obtaining a copy would involve shipping or travel or some additional cost.

 

Given the nothing-special nature of Action Comics #667... the collective value for the supply of Action Comics #667 could be around $100,000... 50,000 copies at $2 each.

 

No big deal.

 

Now, take a different comic, such as Amazing Spider-man #300. For that particular book, there may be 100,000 copies as remaining supply (we don't really know) and the average copy from all those in existence might be in 6.0 condition (again, we don't really know). But if that's a roughly $50 book (raw), then the rough collective value of the total supply of Amazing Spider-man #300 might be $5,000,000. Seems reasonable that ASM #300 collective value could be $5,000,000, and reasonable relative to the collective value of a nothing-special book like Action #667 at $100,000.

 

When we look at the CGC graded copies of Amazing Spider-man #300, there are 12,700 copies graded and the average grade is about 8.8. An 8.8 is about a $180 book (if there was a CGC 8.8), so the collective value of the CGC graded books is roughly $2,300,000. In other words, we might expect around half of the total collective value of the supply of Amazing Spider-man #300 to be CGC graded at this point and the other half is still raw somewhere... with a $5,000,000 total.

 

Moving on to modern variants with fantastical prices, Amazing Spider-man #667 (all versions) is a book that sold 73,000 copies in North America according to Comichron. More sold in other parts of the world, and more sold in the second month, but let's just say it's 80,000 copies.

 

Now, generally speaking, a "nothing special" modern book like any random issue of Amazing Spider-man would probably be worth $2 each, maybe even $4 each, considering the cover price and the shipping/travel/whatever it takes to obtain one.

 

With 80,000 copies in existence, that would be $160,000 to $320,000... for a random recent issue of Amazing Spider-man.

 

Amazing Spider-man #667 is not a random issue, since there has been significant focus on the Dell'Otto variant as one of the most valuable comics in decades.

Let's say that attention at least doubles the collective value of Amazing Spider-man #667.

So, $320,000 to $640,000 collective value for the existing supply of Amazing Spider-man #667.

Given that most of the 80,000 copies are NOT the Dell'Otto variant, let's take those out of the collective value at $2 each... and leave around $160,000 to $480,000 for the Dell'Otto variants... however many exist.

 

Currently, 29 have been CGC graded. If those 29 are the only 29 that exist, and if the $160,000 to $480,000 estimate is reasonable (logical), then each "average" copy of a #667 Dell'Otto variant might be $5,500 to $15,500.

 

If the number CGC graded is about half of the collective value (like ASM #300), then each "average" copy of a #667 Dell'Otto variant would be $2,750 to $7,750.

 

Obviously if there were 39 graded copies, instead of 29, then each one would be a lower "logical" estimate.

If there were 290 graded copies... the price estimate might be 10 times lower.

But, if the collective value of #667 is higher than "double a random issue" due to all the publicity (both positive and negative) then each individual copy could "logically" be higher.

 

It is still a strange thing to me to consider a modern comic logical or "reasonably priced" between $2,750 and $15,500 using any kind of logic... but the comic market has decades of history... and decades of straight-forward thinking on pricing. Higher condition is worth more, lower condition is worth less, and average condition is average... but each copy is just a little piece of the standard collective value.

 

Modern variants have a "preferred cover" and a "non-preferred cover" (or many non-preferred covers), so a portion of the collective dollars for the issue may shift to the "preferred cover"... which has the smaller supply. More dollars divided by a smaller supply means more dollars for each individual "preferred cover" book, and the CGC census lets us do some math.

 

For those who would point out that values for any given comic are "top heavy" for high grade, meaning there are significantly more dollars in the highest conditions, then I would point out that is an argument that these collective value estimates are too low... and CGC 9.6 or CGC 9.8 modern variants might deserve even higher estimates than what I've described.

 

Lots of assumptions in this, obviously, but there is at least one path to "logic" where it has been argued that there is no logic, or argued that we shouldn't even try to apply logic.

 

I can say I tried.

[Mercury Man]

Well thought out summary.

 

I think if one person over pays for a Modern Variant (especially in a documented online auction), that throws everything into a tailspin. It's a product of today's information technology. "Did you see variant issue XYZ?? It sold for $$$$$" Suddenly the internet and message boards buzz. Then we arrive to this point, digging up print run numbers, scarcity, condition, census boards and rationalization.

 

I think there is a difference from an item becoming a collectible, and an item being manufactured as a collectible. Key Gold/Silver/Bronze Age comics are the former, and Modern Variants are the latter. The latter reminds me of the early 1990's. Why bother going down that road? Kudos to somebody who can sell a Modern Variant for $9K. It only is a bad deal until the next person who tries to sell it can't find a buyer.

[valiantman]

Good points. I have specifically avoided using examples of books from the past year or past six months. Those do have the "buzz" that eventually fades. I don't want to attempt (at this point) to try to quantify "initial hype" due to the newness and honestly, greed, factor associated with hyping books for sale which still have drying ink (pump and dump, love 'em and leave 'em, one-night-stand comics).

 

ASM #667 Dell'Otto will be 6 years old this year. We can at least take it to first grade when it comes to the arithmetic of its values.

 

The difference now, in this particular case, vs. the early 1990s is that even the top "high profile" variants of the 1990s were 5,000 or 10,000 copies... minimum.

 

Superman #75 Platinum or Spider-man #1 Platinum were not hard to find... so $100 or $200 could guarantee one... and still can.

 

That's $500,000 to $2,000,000 collective value for those variants... even at the height of the 1990s boom.

 

If the 29 graded copies of ASM #667 Dell'Otto were $200 each, we'd only be talking about a collective value of $5,800. That would be 1% of the collective market for a single "high profile" 1990s variant... and we surely still have more than 1% of the 1990s boom market, despite the 1990s bust.

[rjpb]

The notion of comparative collective value is a dubious way of assessing what should be a market price. Books gain and lose traction in the market place with realized prices representing just a fraction of what is in collections. One can theoretically asses the collective value of all copies based on current prices, but those prices are frequently sensitive to fluctuations in the availability of extant copies. So a drop in value may not be as much a reflection of loss of interest, but increased availability. While there should ultimately some correlation between extant and available copies of a given book, it's not always that simple, as historically there have been books deemed scarce because of a reluctance to part with them at perceived market value, then once the market begins to respond with higher prices, the books turn out to be far less scarce than thought. Conversely there are books assumed to be common that no one thinks much about, but aren't that easy to find in grade, and have little collective value, because they aren't considered worth paying a premium for, until someone does, paying 10X what was considered FMV. Extrapolated from that one sale, one could argue the collective value has now increased 10 fold, but has it really?

[exitmusicblue]

The notion of comparative collective value is a dubious way of assessing what should be a market price. Books gain and lose traction in the market place with realized prices representing just a fraction of what is in collections. One can theoretically asses the collective value of all copies based on current prices, but those prices are frequently sensitive to fluctuations in the availability of extant copies. So a drop in value may not be as much a reflection of loss of interest, but increased availability. While there should ultimately some correlation between extant and available copies of a given book, it's not always that simple, as historically there have been books deemed scarce because of a reluctance to part with them at perceived market value, then once the market begins to respond with higher prices, the books turn out to be far less scarce than thought. Conversely there are books assumed to be common that no one thinks much about, but aren't that easy to find in grade, and have little collective value, because they aren't considered worth paying a premium for, until someone does, paying 10X what was considered FMV. Extrapolated from that one sale, one could argue the collective value has now increased 10 fold, but has it really?

 

+100

 

A noble effort it was.

[valiantman]

Rjpb and exitmusicblue, I don't think that's what I'm saying.

 

I've provided for the scenario that a single high sale drives more copies into the market. In fact, I even mentioned that 10 times the supply could have the corresponding effect of lowering prices 10 times their current levels.

 

Because individual prices are driven by supply and demand, the collective values are simply a multiplier of supply by those prices... even if it's all theoretical.

 

Market capitalization for stocks is the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the last sale of one share. In reality, even a small "dump" of shares (less than 1% of the supply) over a short period of time could cause the whole market to "crash" for that stock. Market capitalization hasn't been abandoned because of this... it's still a fundamental.

 

We're not looking for absolutes here, since we're working from the premise that all of this variant market is where "logic need not apply".

 

I'm just trying to apply logic somewhere in that market... and given the results outlined, it's not far off.

 

If you look again at my calculation, I started from the entire universe of copies in existence, took out those that aren't in demand, and calculated a value for those that are in demand (the variants) from the original full universe number... not from any single sale. It was only after I had some numbers that I asked if that's where the market is. Turns out... it is... in a general sense.

 

Economics is not just "supply and demand", take the final, and get a degree. There's nuance... but it's not magic.

Every house is different but real estate is driven by "comparables".

 

This whole exercise is surreal, since I'm one of the guys who has been vocal about the "insanity" of sale prices for these books. I thought logic didn't have a place here.

 

Whether we agree with the prices paid is irrelevant, but it's hard to disagree with a calculator.

Again, not looking to be exact... just "applicable" and using decades of the comic market (pre-variants) as the basis for the application.

[exitmusicblue]

Fwiw, the single sale of $9000 in and of itself did not shock or disgust me. My angle is, what happens when the book is almost inevitably overshadowed by another just-as-rare or rarer variant by Dell'Otto or a then-hotter artist? For the sake of this argument let's say this future variant objectively looks better and attracts more Modern market lust. And that it's for a more numerically significant issue.

 

If I were Marvel, I would be aiming to do exactly the above. Why not? It's nowhere written in stone that #667 must be the greatest ASM variant for all time.

 

Is your model static, or can it adapt to these new circumstances with respect to the #667? I think much of the general ridicule over the sale had less to do with the reality that it happened, but because the price point would not stand the test of time (6 years since publication notwithstanding).

[shadroch]

I appreciate the effort, but I disagree with your hypotheses, and reject your conclusions.

[paul747]

Rjpb and exitmusicblue, I don't think that's what I'm saying.

 

I've provided for the scenario that a single high sale drives more copies into the market. In fact, I even mentioned that 10 times the supply could have the corresponding effect of lowering prices 10 times their current levels.

 

Because individual prices are driven by supply and demand, the collective values are simply a multiplier of supply by those prices... even if it's all theoretical.

 

Market capitalization for stocks is the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the last sale of one share. In reality, even a small "dump" of shares (less than 1% of the supply) over a short period of time could cause the whole market to "crash" for that stock. Market capitalization hasn't been abandoned because of this... it's still a fundamental.

 

We're not looking for absolutes here, since we're working from the premise that all of this variant market is where "logic need not apply".

 

I'm just trying to apply logic somewhere in that market... and given the results outlined, it's not far off.

 

If you look again at my calculation, I started from the entire universe of copies in existence, took out those that aren't in demand, and calculated a value for those that are in demand (the variants) from the original full universe number... not from any single sale. It was only after I had some numbers that I asked if that's where the market is. Turns out... it is... in a general sense.

 

Economics is not just "supply and demand", take the final, and get a degree. There's nuance... but it's not magic.

Every house is different but real estate is driven by "comparables".

 

This whole exercise is surreal, since I'm one of the guys who has been vocal about the "insanity" of sale prices for these books. I thought logic didn't have a place here.

 

Whether we agree with the prices paid is irrelevant, but it's hard to disagree with a calculator.

Again, not looking to be exact... just "applicable" and using decades of the comic market (pre-variants) as the basis for the application.

 

Speaking comparables.. I think the # 688 variant is similar in demand but more inexpensive because of filled demand. If the #667 was to add even 50 more copies to the census the price by logic should be similar to the going price of the #688 Lizard variant.

 

Even When Hulk 181 was fetching a ridiculous amount, back at the beginning of the Census, there was no supply of 9.8 copies. That all changed quickly when the book hit peak price, 30 more 9.8's hit the market and the price dropped fast. The people that bought the Hulk #181s early on the low census number still have not gotten back to even.

[valiantman]

I appreciate the effort, but I disagree with your hypotheses, and reject your conclusions.

OK, you'll need to be more specific. My primary hypothesis is that we can attempt to apply logic to the modern variant market.

If you disagree with that hypothesis, then I disagree with your disagreement, because I did attempt it.

 

If you agree that we can attempt to apply logic to the modern variant market, but you disagree with my application, I'm ready to read yours.

[valiantman]

Is your model static, or can it adapt to these new circumstances with respect to the #667? I think much of the general ridicule over the sale had less to do with the reality that it happened, but because the price point would not stand the test of time (6 years since publication notwithstanding).

One key assumption is that the "whole market for #667" is about double that of the neighboring issues, since there is attention on #667 and it has "separated itself" from its neighbors.

 

If that #667 total market is actually triple the neighboring books... that would have a big effect on the calculations.

 

If the market "moves on" past #667 and the market focuses on some other book, because it has an even rarer variant (your example), then #667 as a whole might be no more or less important than its neighboring issues... and the Dell'Otto variant would suffer. It will always be the "most prized" variant for #667, but if the whole market for #667 has less market focus, the variants likely fall too.

 

I believe that's the key difference between ASM #667 and Batman #608.

There is a market for Batman #608, even if it's not the RRP variant.

Regular versions of #608 are not cover price, so the fundamentals for Batman #608 do not rely on the RRP's existence.

The fundamentals for #667 as a whole seem to rely solely on the fact that there's a Dell'Otto variant and the fact that it only has 29 graded copies.

 

I agree that it is better to have a strong basis (like Batman #608 regular) to accompany a high dollar variant (#608 RRP) than to have a high dollar variant based only on the fact that there's a high dollar variant.

 

Even looking back to the 35-cent variants... it's the books which matter first as regular editions that matter the most as 35-cent variants.

Star Wars #1 matters whether there is a 35-cent variant or not because Star Wars #1 is already collectible as a regular comic.

Start with a fundamentally strong regular edition, and you can get a fantastic valued variant when the supply is tiny.

Just having a tiny supply of variants is literally a weaker scenario when the regular edition isn't strong on its own.

[exitmusicblue]

Well put and agreed !

[valiantman]

I believe it's the quality of story in Batman #608 that makes the RRP such a valuable book.

There are hundreds of them, but the price rivals ASM #667 which only has 29.

 

Not only could Marvel decide to create a Dell'Otto variant Spider-man book with only 10 copies printed... they could do it for a book with an important first appearance (Royal Blue Venom!), or the death of Mary Jane (where she doesn't come back for 5 years), or reveal Peter's long lost evil brother, or something that makes the regular editions sought after. Then those 10 variants would be essentially be the true Spider-man holy grails... and ASM #667 would be a disappointment in comparison. (Then they could do the same thing again with a print run of 5.)

 

Meanwhile, Dark Knight III #1 5K Jim Lee original art books barely match the value of Batman #608 RRP... even though there are only 11 graded copies.

 

If Dark Knight III was a story that everyone loved in the regular edition, then I have no doubt those 11 graded copies of the Jim Lee book would be doing multiples better than Batman #608 RRP... because they're also Batman... but 25 times harder to get.

 

[SquareChaos]

If you hate reading, lots of words, or logic, please go ahead and post something dumb now.

The rest of us will recognize and skip your replies.

 

(Otherwise, thoughtful responses are welcome!)

 

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Searching for the logic of the very high prices (relative to every other comic in the past 30 years) for some of the recent modern variants, I've seen it said that logic has nothing to do with it.

 

To that I say... phooey.

 

We might as well eliminate economics as a concept if we're not supposed to put any logic into collective market behavior.

 

So, moving on.

 

Until the first variant comics were identified (or separated) in the market, it can be said that every copy of any particular comic was basically just a standard piece from the available supply... with variations in pricing due to condition, of course... but not a lot else... for several decades. Obviously, key issues were worth more because of the content but all of those copies were the same... varying only by condition. Even a nothing-special random book would have some collective value for all existing copies. Whatever they're worth times however many exist.

 

Look at Action Comics #667 (not Amazing Spider-man #667), which we might say is a nothing-special random comic.

Let's say there are 50,000 remaining in existence more than 25 years after it was published. Each remaining copy being worth about $2 each is probably not a surprise to anyone because most comics are "worth" 25cents, or 50cents, or $1 or so with the idea that actually obtaining a copy would involve shipping or travel or some additional cost.

 

Given the nothing-special nature of Action Comics #667... the collective value for the supply of Action Comics #667 could be around $100,000... 50,000 copies at $2 each.

 

No big deal.

 

Now, take a different comic, such as Amazing Spider-man #300. For that particular book, there may be 100,000 copies as remaining supply (we don't really know) and the average copy from all those in existence might be in 6.0 condition (again, we don't really know). But if that's a roughly $50 book (raw), then the rough collective value of the total supply of Amazing Spider-man #300 might be $5,000,000. Seems reasonable that ASM #300 collective value could be $5,000,000, and reasonable relative to the collective value of a nothing-special book like Action #667 at $100,000.

 

When we look at the CGC graded copies of Amazing Spider-man #300, there are 12,700 copies graded and the average grade is about 8.8. An 8.8 is about a $180 book (if there was a CGC 8.8), so the collective value of the CGC graded books is roughly $2,300,000. In other words, we might expect around half of the total collective value of the supply of Amazing Spider-man #300 to be CGC graded at this point and the other half is still raw somewhere... with a $5,000,000 total.

 

Moving on to modern variants with fantastical prices, Amazing Spider-man #667 (all versions) is a book that sold 73,000 copies in North America according to Comichron. More sold in other parts of the world, and more sold in the second month, but let's just say it's 80,000 copies.

 

Now, generally speaking, a "nothing special" modern book like any random issue of Amazing Spider-man would probably be worth $2 each, maybe even $4 each, considering the cover price and the shipping/travel/whatever it takes to obtain one.

 

With 80,000 copies in existence, that would be $160,000 to $320,000... for a random recent issue of Amazing Spider-man.

 

Amazing Spider-man #667 is not a random issue, since there has been significant focus on the Dell'Otto variant as one of the most valuable comics in decades.

Let's say that attention at least doubles the collective value of Amazing Spider-man #667.

So, $320,000 to $640,000 collective value for the existing supply of Amazing Spider-man #667.

Given that most of the 80,000 copies are NOT the Dell'Otto variant, let's take those out of the collective value at $2 each... and leave around $160,000 to $480,000 for the Dell'Otto variants... however many exist.

 

Currently, 29 have been CGC graded. If those 29 are the only 29 that exist, and if the $160,000 to $480,000 estimate is reasonable (logical), then each "average" copy of a #667 Dell'Otto variant might be $5,500 to $15,500.

 

If the number CGC graded is about half of the collective value (like ASM #300), then each "average" copy of a #667 Dell'Otto variant would be $2,750 to $7,750.

 

Obviously if there were 39 graded copies, instead of 29, then each one would be a lower "logical" estimate.

If there were 290 graded copies... the price estimate might be 10 times lower.

But, if the collective value of #667 is higher than "double a random issue" due to all the publicity (both positive and negative) then each individual copy could "logically" be higher.

 

It is still a strange thing to me to consider a modern comic logical or "reasonably priced" between $2,750 and $15,500 using any kind of logic... but the comic market has decades of history... and decades of straight-forward thinking on pricing. Higher condition is worth more, lower condition is worth less, and average condition is average... but each copy is just a little piece of the standard collective value.

 

Modern variants have a "preferred cover" and a "non-preferred cover" (or many non-preferred covers), so a portion of the collective dollars for the issue may shift to the "preferred cover"... which has the smaller supply. More dollars divided by a smaller supply means more dollars for each individual "preferred cover" book, and the CGC census lets us do some math.

 

For those who would point out that values for any given comic are "top heavy" for high grade, meaning there are significantly more dollars in the highest conditions, then I would point out that is an argument that these collective value estimates are too low... and CGC 9.6 or CGC 9.8 modern variants might deserve even higher estimates than what I've described.

 

Lots of assumptions in this, obviously, but there is at least one path to "logic" where it has been argued that there is no logic, or argued that we shouldn't even try to apply logic.

 

I can say I tried.

 

I don't mean this in a bad way, you put some time in to this, but this doesn't make any sense to me at all if I'm actually following you. What does the overall pooled value of a given issue have to do with anything? The overall pooled value is driven by the individual price, not the other way around - I'm very confused by this way of thinking :shrug:

 

Rarity by itself does not drive value... if that is what you're attempting to say anyway. I'm not 100% clear.

 

Still, thanks for posting!

[ygogolak]

DK III is only a year old. 608 is 15. Give it some time.

[valiantman]

I don't mean this in a bad way, you put some time in to this, but this doesn't make any sense to me at all if I'm actually following you. What does the overall pooled value of a given issue have to do with anything? The overall pooled value is driven by the individual price, not the other way around - I'm very confused by this way of thinking :shrug:

 

Rarity by itself does not drive value... if that is what you're attempting to say anyway. I'm not 100% clear.

 

Still, thanks for posting!

 

In the simplest terms, the overall pooled value for comics actually does have meaning.

 

It's clearest when you line up all the different comics by their overall pooled value, you get an order that really makes sense.

Action Comics #1, Detective #27, Amazing Fantasy #15 are the three at the top by the overall pooled value.

 

Why would Amazing Fantasy #15 be in the Top 3, when it's at least 10 times cheaper than the other two books when it comes to individual prices?

Because the overall pooled value for the Big 3 is almost identical... even though we don't think about that number when we watch individual sales.

 

The next two are Hulk #1 and Hulk #181. Again, the overall pooled value is nearly identical... though a CGC 6.0 for #1 is way above the price of a CGC 6.0 for #181.

The overall pooled value is nearly identical... indicating that the "next 2" after the Big 3 are Hulk and Wolverine, despite the differences in individual prices... because the overall pooled value is the same... and behind the Big 3.

 

The condition of an individual comic was the only consideration before variants.

The bulk of the overall pooled value always belongs to the copies which are above average condition. There's always a "top-heavy" effect in the overall pool for whichever books are the highest condition.

 

The emergence of variants brings a new consideration to what portion of the overall pool belongs to which books. No longer is the top condition book automatically the "top-heavy" value in the overall pooled value. A CGC 5.0 Star Wars #1 35-cent variant has more value than a CGC 9.8 Star Wars #1 30-cent regular edition.

The overall pooled value is still the total of the value of all copies in existence, but the prices within that pool "shift" toward the variants.

 

Understanding that shift in pooled value toward the most preferred variants, but still working from the overall pooled value, you can calculate potential prices for individual sales (before they happen, or to determine where an "equilibrium" might be) whenever you know the quantity of variants in the market.

 

That's what I've done.

 

The discussion of "total market value" as far as CGC graded books goes, is something that's been off-and-on for years on this board.

The overall pooled values that I've referenced in this post come from mid-2015, when I posted this: http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8706350

(but even that referenced another discussion from 2009)

 

I have an aversion to the idea that anything about the comic book market is unapproachable from an analysis standpoint. There's a "it doesn't have to make sense" mindset among some collectors, but I disagree with them.

We can analyze anything, even the weirdest stuff, and we may find something that makes it less weird.

[SquareChaos]

I don't mean this in a bad way, you put some time in to this, but this doesn't make any sense to me at all if I'm actually following you. What does the overall pooled value of a given issue have to do with anything? The overall pooled value is driven by the individual price, not the other way around - I'm very confused by this way of thinking :shrug:

 

Rarity by itself does not drive value... if that is what you're attempting to say anyway. I'm not 100% clear.

 

Still, thanks for posting!

 

In the simplest terms, the overall pooled value for comics actually does have meaning.

 

It's clearest when you line up all the different comics by their overall pooled value, you get an order that really makes sense.

Action Comics #1, Detective #27, Amazing Fantasy #15 are the three at the top by the overall pooled value.

 

Why would Amazing Fantasy #15 be in the Top 3, when it's at least 10 times cheaper than the other two books when it comes to individual prices?

Because the overall pooled value for the Big 3 is almost identical... even though we don't think about that number when we watch individual sales.

 

The next two are Hulk #1 and Hulk #181. Again, the overall pooled value is nearly identical... though a CGC 6.0 for #1 is way above the price of a CGC 6.0 for #181.

The overall pooled value is nearly identical... indicating that the "next 2" after the Big 3 are Hulk and Wolverine, despite the differences in individual prices... because the overall pooled value is the same... and behind the Big 3.

 

The condition of an individual comic was the only consideration before variants.

The bulk of the overall pooled value always belongs to the copies which are above average condition. There's always a "top-heavy" effect in the overall pool for whichever books are the highest condition.

 

The emergence of variants brings a new consideration to what portion of the overall pool belongs to which books. No longer is the top condition book automatically the "top-heavy" value in the overall pooled value. A CGC 5.0 Star Wars #1 35-cent variant has more value than a CGC 9.8 Star Wars #1 30-cent regular edition.

The overall pooled value is still the total of the value of all copies in existence, but the prices within that pool "shift" toward the variants.

 

Understanding that shift in pooled value toward the most preferred variants, but still working from the overall pooled value, you can calculate potential prices for individual sales (before they happen, or to determine where an "equilibrium" might be) whenever you know the quantity of variants in the market.

 

That's what I've done.

 

The discussion of "total market value" as far as CGC graded books goes, is something that's been off-and-on for years on this board.

The overall pooled values that I've referenced in this post come from mid-2015, when I posted this: http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8706350

(but even that referenced another discussion from 2009)

 

I have an aversion to the idea that anything about the comic book market is unapproachable from an analysis standpoint. There's a "it doesn't have to make sense" mindset among some collectors, but I disagree with them.

We can analyze anything, even the weirdest stuff, and we may find something that makes it less weird.

 

As I said in my original response, in my opinion the only universal truth you can take from pooled value is some insight into individual issue value. Are you attempting to say pooled value tells you anything else? If so, what does it tell you? Is this theory something you can repeat with any given issue, and thereby tell me something about that book that isn't already apparent?

 

Does rarity increase value? Yes, but typically only in something already either valuable or desirable, otherwise I do not believe it does a whole lot.

 

Understand that I'm not saying you shouldn't attempt to apply analysis, I'm asking what exactly has your analysis lead to that is explainable and logical? For instance, lets say I ask you to tell me something about... Manhattan Projects #19?

[valiantman]

SHORT VERSION:

 

If there are 50,000 comics produced at $4 each, that's $200,000.

But if 500 of them are variants, the 500 variants suck $1 away from the other 49,500.

 

So, you get $3 regular editions (49,500 of them),

and you get $99 variants (500 of them),

but the original $200,000 is still $200,000.

 

Variants are vampires.

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either. If you're trying to figure out "the logic" behind variant values, why are you premising your arguments on the ASM 667, which is an extreme outlier, even among rare variants?

 

Second, no, the Batman 608RRP does not sell similarly to the 667. The highest price ever paid for a 9.8, 608RRP is less than half ($4050) what the 667 went for ($9000). And yes, the huge disparity in pricing likely does have something to do with the fact that there are one-tenth the amount of slabs for the 667 as there are for the 608RRP.

 

Third, no, the regular issue of Bats 608 doesn't sell for any kind of big money in a 9.8. Last regular cover went for about $60. Last regular cover ASM 667 went for about $40. The Bats 608 second print goes for a few hundred dollars, but that's also because (like the 608RRP and ASM 667) it's is rarer (and better) than the regular cover.

 

Fourth, even If in the highly unlikely event Marvel decided to print an issue of ASM, with a regular distribution and not as some special giveaway or handed out to fans at a con, that somehow ended up being even rarer than the 667, the 667 would not suddenly lose its value. The new book would simply become another book for collectors like me to chase. If anything another book like that would only further fan the flames as the 667, as its hyper-rarity is a result of a combination of factors at the solicitation/ordering/distribution level that I have not seen before nor since (which again, literally makes this the worse[/b] book to attempt to perform this analysis with in the first place), and it will always be "the first" of its kind, even if Marvel decided to try to artificially recreate it.

 

Fifth, the Jim Lee DK III books are all original sketches on comic books, and I think he did 100 of them. Regardless of the actual amount, most collectors know he did plenty of them, certainly more than the 11 that are graded. Those are more like OA than anything else.

 

Sixth, the ASM 667 sold for $1100 in a 9.8 when there were just 10 total copies four years ago, and $9k now with 29. That undoes your theory about new slabs hitting the census negatively affecting its realized prices (why would it, as available copies remains next to nil regardless).

 

Seventh, if you are still trying to figure out why the ASM 667 sells for what it does, take it back to basics and the answer is obvious: It's a late run Spider-Man variant that few shops ordered, and after six years only has 29 slabs on the census, in spite of its eye popping sales prices. That's just 29 slabs, 5 a year. 5 slabs a year for a Spider-Man comic. 29 total slabs for a Spider-Man comic .

 

That fact alone will ring the dinner bell for deep pockets.

 

-J.

 

 

[SquareChaos]

SHORT VERSION:

 

If there are 50,000 comics produced at $4 each, that's $200,000.

But if 500 of them are variants, the 500 variants suck $1 away from the other 49,500.

 

So, you get $3 regular editions (49,500 of them),

and you get $99 variants (500 of them),

but the original $200,000 is still $200,000.

 

Variants are vampires.

 

I appreciate if you think this gives you some truthful insight, but I just don't understand it personally.