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The All New Original Art Price Game - HA edition Adjusted
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Started by Panelfan1,

53 posts in this topic

Panelfan1

Panelfan1

Posted
Posted (edited)

the Heritage auction is coming up soon - so figured this would be the perfect time to play the all new price game.

 

Ideally everyone gets in their " bets" before the auction goes live. (Feb 3rd.)

 

There are well over 700 pieces in this auction. I have picked 10 items from HA's upcoming auction for the purpose of this ART GAME.

 

For each item on the list - enter the value that you think it will sell for. The goal is to be close without going over by more than $1000.

 

This will make watching the auction more fun, especially for those of us that can't participate in purchasing some of the higher priced items.

 

At the end of the auction - you can see how you did. Whoever has the most correct estimates without having gone over is the winner.

 

Winner - wins bragging rights!

 

Winning is not the point however - seeing how close you come to the final #s is the fun part? I usually play this game for items I plan to bid on. In this case - most of the items are out of my regular scope, so guessing the market will be a fun challenge. If anyone is eyeing any of these - you may have the advantage in this game.

 

To participate - simply reply/quote this post with your estimates edited in. If you only want to enter guesses on some (a few) of the 10, thats good too.

 

Comments on why you made your price prediction are welcome. Comments about other folks preditions welcome too. (Will post my own predictions shortly.)

 

The ART:

 

1. CAPTAIN AMERICA 68 COVER

 

2. DAREDEVIL 165 MILLER SPLASH

 

3. SWAMP THING 6 COVER WRIGHTSON

 

4. RETURN JEDI COVER SIENKIEWICZ

 

5. JIMMY CORRIGAN STORY CHRIS WARE

 

6. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 259 COVER FRENZ

 

7. SPIDER-MAN INDEX COVER MIKE ZECK

 

8. DEFENDERS 4 COVER - STARLIN,ETC..

 

9. JLA 1 PANEL PAGE - SEKOWSKY

 

10. PREACHER 19 PANEL PAGE -STEVE DILLON

 

 

 

 

full auction link

Edited by Panelfan1
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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted

I would suggest:

 

(1) Have fewer pieces. 15 pieces is a lot to go through, especially people who spend time evaluating each piece so as not to risk looking clueless. I would suggest something like 6-8 pieces, 10 at the absolute max.

 

(2) Get rid of the "Price is Right" qualifier. Having it in place will force people to underestimate their guesses so as not to risk going over, and will bias estimates to the downside, making them less useful as any kind of predictor/indicator.

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JadeGiant

JadeGiant

Posted
Posted

Fun idea. I don’t follow most of this art but I am willing to venture a few guesses. I agree with the notion that less is more – 10 or less seems to be about right if you want to maximize participation. I question the notion of closest without going over. So a prediction that is $1 higher than the hammer price is not better than the next closest which might be $1,000 under?

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Panelfan1

Panelfan1

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Posted (edited)

The not going over idea was meant to avoid folks guessing outrageous #s.

 

BUT its a fair point. So adjusted the requirement. Must be closest but cant be over by more than $1000. And as per Gene's idea, Reduced the list down to 10 items.

Edited by Panelfan1
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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted
The not going over idea was meant to avoid folks guessing outrageous #s.

 

BUT its a fair point. So adjusted the requirement. Must br closest but cant be over by more than $1000. And as per Gene's idea, Reduced the list down to 10 items.

 

Even the $1000 limit is bad - that's going to be less than one bid increment on some of those pieces, so it will still cause people to overcorrect to the downside on their estimates.

 

You can always cancel out the effect of both high and low outliers by taking a median instead of a mean, and/or cancelling out some of the highest and lowest estimates.

 

It should be like golf - closest to the hole wins, whether you're too high or too low.

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Panelfan1

Panelfan1

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Ultimately its about seeing how close you can get. No real money is on the line.

 

Setting the $1000 amount is not perfect but its clear. Talking about medians etc.. blurrs the rules for the game. This is less about math and more about testing yourself. For all the talk of FMV on these boards - what does that all mean? If you guess close, you might have a sense of FMV. If not, its a great opportunity to learn and compare before and after.

 

Love the feedback Gene. Hope folks join me in trying this out and if it ends up being fun, lets make more changes next go round.

 

 

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Ironmandrd

Ironmandrd

Posted
Posted

FWIW, I don't think anyone is going to be guessing outrageous numbers if there's no $1000 cutout. Better I think to just play it straight --people say what they actually believe and whoever is closest (up or down) "wins." Setting any limits puts into play a bidding strategy to win (like people do on Price is Right) instead of just making an honest assessment of price. If that means that someone believes a cover is $20k but someone else thinks it's going to hit $45k, so be it. You never really know where a particular auction might end anyway (we can all think of examples where something sold for much, much higher than anyone could have reasonably anticipated and a few examples of pieces selling for a fair amount less than anticipated).

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Panelfan1

Panelfan1

Posted
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Posted
FWIW, I don't think anyone is going to be guessing outrageous numbers if there's no $1000 cutout. Better I think to just play it straight --people say what they actually believe and whoever is closest (up or down) "wins." Setting any limits puts into play a bidding strategy to win (like people do on Price is Right) instead of just making an honest assessment of price. If that means that someone believes a cover is $20k but someone else thinks it's going to hit $45k, so be it. You never really know where a particular auction might end anyway (we can all think of examples where something sold for much, much higher than anyone could have reasonably anticipated and a few examples of pieces selling for a fair amount less than anticipated).

 

If everyone can agree, I like the suggestion here. I just want everyone to get along.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bronty

Bronty

Posted
Posted
the Heritage auction is coming up soon - so figured this would be the perfect time to play the all new price game.

 

Ideally everyone gets in their " bets" before the auction goes live. (Feb 3rd.)

 

There are well over 700 pieces in this auction. I have picked 10 items from HA's upcoming auction for the purpose of this ART GAME.

 

For each item on the list - enter the value that you think it will sell for. The goal is to be close without going over by more than $1000.

 

This will make watching the auction more fun, especially for those of us that can't participate in purchasing some of the higher priced items.

 

At the end of the auction - you can see how you did. Whoever has the most correct estimates without having gone over is the winner.

 

Winner - wins bragging rights!

 

Winning is not the point however - seeing how close you come to the final #s is the fun part? I usually play this game for items I plan to bid on. In this case - most of the items are out of my regular scope, so guessing the market will be a fun challenge. If anyone is eyeing any of these - you may have the advantage in this game.

 

To participate - simply reply/quote this post with your estimates edited in. If you only want to enter guesses on some (a few) of the 10, thats good too.

 

Comments on why you made your price prediction are welcome. Comments about other folks preditions welcome too. (Will post my own predictions shortly.)

 

The ART:

 

1. CAPTAIN AMERICA 68 COVER

 

2. DAREDEVIL 165 MILLER SPLASH

 

3. SWAMP THING 6 COVER WRIGHTSON

 

4. RETURN JEDI COVER SIENKIEWICZ

 

5. JIMMY CORRIGAN STORY CHRIS WARE

 

6. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 259 COVER FRENZ

 

7. SPIDER-MAN INDEX COVER MIKE ZECK

 

8. DEFENDERS 4 COVER - STARLIN,ETC..

 

9. JLA 1 PANEL PAGE - SEKOWSKY

 

10. PREACHER 19 PANEL PAGE -STEVE DILLON

 

 

 

 

full auction link

 

While everyone else is complaining about the rules ;) I'll get the ball started from you with my patented, zero-research Buttquotes (patent pending).

 

1. Cap 68 cover $65,000

2. DD 165 splashy kinda meh $15,000

3. Swampy 6 cover $65,000

4. Sienk Jedi $25,000

5. Ware. I literally know nothing about Ware. $15,000? Haven't a clue.

6. Frenz spidey 259 cover $27,000

7. Zeck/rubinstein hmmm another where I just don't know but great image! $23,500

8. Defender 4 $18,500

9. JLA 1 $7,000

10. Preacher $1200.

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Panelfan1

Panelfan1

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Posted

 

So the prize is that we get to pick a page from your collection?

 

 

 

 

You can always use the 'favorites from other collectors galleries' function on CAF to add any art I have to your pages. I do this even without winning any art pricing game. But I am a rebel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:jokealert:

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GreatEscape

GreatEscape

Posted
Posted

I'll follow Bronty's excellent butt-quotes and offer my own WAGNERs = "Wild Guesses Not Easily Refutable" :sumo:

 

1. Cap 68 cover $68,000

2. DD 165 splash $16,000

3. Swampy 6 cover $74,000

4. Sienk Jedi $22,000 Sienk + Star Wars both hot plus #2 most watched lot

5. Ware. $47,000 Rare whole story..

6. Spidey 259 cover $22,000 If Frenz ASM poster sold for $12k, then...

7. Zeck/Rubinstein Punisher $16,000

8. Defender 4 $17,000 ambiguous credits, tiny figures otherwise $20k+

9. JLA 1 $12,000 Historic + Jurassic

10. Preacher $3200. presents well

 

Plus, a bold prediction: The #1 and #2 highest selling OA lots aren't on this list. hm

 

 

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J.Sid

J.Sid

Posted
Posted

Here's a couple more no-research guesses:

 

 

1. CAPTAIN AMERICA 68 COVER no idea...$172k?

 

2. DAREDEVIL 165 MILLER SPLASH $32k (way more if it had mechanical arms on it)

 

3. SWAMP THING 6 COVER WRIGHTSON $78k

 

4. RETURN JEDI COVER SIENKIEWICZ $16k (will this go higher or lower than the Elektra: Assassin splash?)

 

5. JIMMY CORRIGAN STORY CHRIS WARE $11k

 

6. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 259 COVER FRENZ $26k

 

7. SPIDER-MAN INDEX COVER MIKE ZECK $28k (my favorite of these ten)

 

8. DEFENDERS 4 COVER - STARLIN,ETC.. $52k

 

9. JLA 1 PANEL PAGE - SEKOWSKY $9k (don't even know artist's first name)

 

10. PREACHER 19 PANEL PAGE -STEVE DILLON $2200

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted

All guesses include BP:

 

1. Cap 68 cover $71,700

2. DD 165 splash $23,900

3. Swampy 6 cover $59,750

4. Sienk ROTJ $31,070

5. Ware $43,020

6. Spidey 259 cover $22,705

7. Zeck Punisher $17,925

8. Defenders 4 $23,900

9. JLA 1 $17,925

10. Preacher $2,629

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otherworldsj33

otherworldsj33

Posted
Posted

1. Cap #68 cover - $66,000

2. DD 165 splash - $27,000

3. Swamp Thing #6 cover - $54,500

4. ROTJ cvr by Sinkw - $25,000

5. C, Ware story - $23,500

6. Spidey #259 cover - $20,500

7.Mike Zeck Puns. cover - $18,000

8. Defenders 4 cover - $21,500

9. JLA #1 page - $14, 500

10. Preacher Dillon page - $2,900

 

Includes BP.

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