JOKER: THE MOVIE produced by Martin Scorsese (TBD) 1 1

[Bosco685]

Herbalife speaks.

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After grossing $37 million internationally and $14 million domestically at the weekend box office, Warner Bros.’ super-villain origin tale Joker has amassed an impressive $934 million in global theatrical receipts. So it is now inevitable – Joker will become the first R-rated film topping the huge $1 billion mark at the box office.

 

It’s especially impressive that Joker will manage the $1 billion feat without a release in China, making it the first first-release film since 2008’s The Dark Knight to do so.

 

The total weekly tally for Joker over the past seven days – meaning the above weekend figures plus the preceding weekday data – tops $70+ million. Joker would have to drop 50% every week starting immediately, to fall below $1 billion. And since it dropped a remarkably low 24% in foreign markets and only 28% in North America this past weekend, there’s no serious chance of Joker suddenly suffering 50+% declines all of a sudden.

 

Even the imminent competition from Midway and Doctor Sleep next weekend, and subsequent challenges from Charlie's Angels and Ford v Ferrari are unlikely to send Joker toward/over the 50% line so soon and so quickly. Joker held strong in the face of multiple big-branded challengers so far, and I don’t think it will start falling more than perhaps 40% worldwide until late-November when Frozen 2 and Knives Out are likely to cause higher week-to-week dips for the Clown Prince of Crime.

 

If Joker sees a 40% global dip next weekend, another 40% dip the following weekend, and then falls 50% each subsequent weekend, then just those weekend receipts alone would push the film to about $999.5 million. Add in the Monday-Thursday box office around the world for the next several weeks, and Joker easily passes $1 billion.

 

In fact, I anticipate Joker will dance past the $1 billion mark in two more weekends, topping the magic number by Sunday November 17th. If by chance it happens to fall more than I expect in the next two weeks, then I still don’t think it will pass $1 billion any later than Sunday November 24th. And should it hold even better than my moderate estimates, then it could potentially be in the billion-dollar club as early as Friday November 15th.

 

[jsilverjanet]

Maybe DCs niche should be adult serious movies instead of CGI mash ups like the mouse

next a serious take on Swamp Thing or Hellblazer 

[jsilverjanet]

No need to spend any real money on it

[Bosco685]

 

 

[ghengishahn]

I saw the movie last night.  Movie was completely sold out.  Two of my friends got there late and couldn't get tickets.

I thought the movie was just okay.  I thought Joaquin Phoenix acting was excellent but I didn't really care for his final act as the Joker.  If he would have transformed into the Joker that Heath Ledger played I think I would have been more satisfied at the end. 

[paperheart]

$1BB on Sunday

[▫️]

2 hours ago, ghengishahn said:

If he would have transformed into the Joker that Heath Ledger played I think I would have been more satisfied at the end. 

And this is precisely why it would NOT have worked for me if they went that route. He’s just not that Joker yet. Can’t go from Arthur Fleck discovering and embracing his dark side to criminal mastermind in one film. It ended with him finally being comfortable in his skin and leaves me wondering how he transforms from there.  Ledgers version is fully formed and goes full Joker on us right from the opening.

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

As of 11/6/19:

DOMESTIC: $302.1 Million

INTERNATIONAL: $637.7 Million

TOTAL: $939.8 Million

Just $60.2 Million away from $1B.  

[Bosco685]

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

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With $304.2 million in North America after five weeks in theaters, Joker’s new global cume is around $953 million. Presuming its 32% domestic/68% overseas split holds, then it will have a new global cume of around $957 million by tonight. That will be 15.3x its $62.5 million production budget, which will make the Todd Phillips-directed and Joaquin Phoenix-starring drama more profitable, in terms of budget versus global gross, than Jim Carrey’s The Mask ($351 million on a $23 million budget in 1994). The most profitable “big” comic book movies are Venom ($854 million on a $90 million budget), Batman ($411 million/$35 million), Deadpool ($783 million/$58 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($200 million/$13.5 million), The Mask ($351 million/$23 million) and now Joker ($956 million/$62.5 million).

 

That means DC Films and Warner Bros.’ Joker is the most profitable comic book movie of all time. In a skewed way, Joker represents every studio’s dream, in that it’s a mid-budget, 2-D title that’s pulling top-tier blockbuster business without relying on China. That it happens to be an R-rated psychological drama is a bonus of sorts, as it’s the third-cheapest $900 million grosser of all time after Bohemian Rhapsody ($905 million on a $52 million budget) and The Lion King ($968 million on a $55 million budget in 1994). When it tops $1 billion worldwide in the next week or so, it’ll be the cheapest movie to do so, with a budget just under the $63 million spent by Jurassic Park back in 1993.  

 

Up until last December, we hadn’t seen a $1 billion grosser not from Disney or Universal since Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014. We’ve had two newbies in the last year, both comic book movies with huge boosts in China. But unlike Warner Bros.’ Aquaman ($1.148 billion worldwide with $298 million in China) and Spider-Man: Far from Home ($1.131 billion with $199 million in China), Joker will earn its $1 billion-plus gross without a 3-D boost and without China. When it passes The Dark Knight ($1.004 billion worldwide in 2008), it’ll be the biggest-grossing movie ever to not play in China). Yes, that’s assuming it doesn’t eventually get a Chinese play date. But without China, it should still flirt with a global cume over/under Aladdin ($1.0506 billion).

 

It’ll have around $312 million domestic by the end of Sunday night, with a domestic cume still likely to end up just over/under Guardians of the Galaxy ($333 million in 2014), Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334 million in 2017), Aquaman ($335 million in 2018) and Spider-Man 3 ($336 million in 2007). It’ll outgross Suicide Squad ($325 million in 2016) and sell more tickets than Man of Steel ($291 million in 2013/$322 million adjusted-for-inflation) by the end. If it passes Aquaman, Joker will be DC Comics’ fourth-biggest domestic grosser (behind Wonder Woman, The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight) and (presuming a global total between $1.004 billion and $1.081 billion) their third-biggest global cume behind The Dark Knight Rises ($1.081 billion in 2012) and Aquaman.

 

It’s possible that continued Oscar season legs could push its global total past Toy Story 4 ($1.072 billion), but that’s a big “if.” The film will surely be Warner Bros.’ big Oscar flick. On one hand, its success, as a comic book movie about a tormented white dude who is “victimized by society” to the point of villainy may rub folks the wrong way. On the other hand, it’s a monumental success despite being an old school movie. For that matter, its over/under $500 million in profits make it a distinctly old-fashioned tentpole, providing Warner Bros. financial cover for the deluge of under-performing studio programmers (Blinded by the Light, The Kitchen, The Sun is Also A Star, The Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn, possibly The Good Liar and Just Mercy).

 

[Bosco685]

Joker is now $167 million past Deadpool (2016) and $70 million past Spider-Man: Homecoming. Which is just nutty to even have forecasted this from the beginning.

[jsilverjanet]

Man this movie is making Venom look like Snyder flick 

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

Joker now at 17.3X production budget, only $53M away from matching The Dark Knight, and $169M beyond Deadpool (2016)

Now, if only this film can find an audience and appeal to female movie-goers as well. 

[Callaway29]

8 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

Joker now at 17.3X production budget, only $53M away from matching The Dark Knight, and $169M beyond Deadpool (2016)

Now, if only this film can find an audience and appeal to female movie-goers as well. 

Crazy that a multi-millionaire actor in Hollywood actually rocks missing teeth. Or was that part of the role (doubt it)? I respect that he hasn’t conformed...

[Bosco685]

15 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

Crazy that a multi-millionaire actor in Hollywood actually rocks missing teeth. Or was that part of the role (doubt it)? I respect that he hasn’t conformed...

Remember what Tom Cruise looked like in The Outsiders before his dental work? He could peel apples with those choppers.

[Bosco685]

Even before any international update, Joker's 6th domestic weekend $9.2M puts the film at 17.4X production budget.

$175.8M over Deadpool (2016) and only $46M away from matching The Dark Knight.