Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[Math Teacher]

4 hours ago, KCOComics said:

Can you speculate on where we go from here?

If you're a buyer, it will probably be to the poor house.

[mattn792]

Did someone say pour house?!?

[alexgross.com]

12 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Well, if you asked me, I'd say [paste formidably well-informed view here].  But you didn't, so . But here's a thought.  No one has mentioned this yet that I know of, but what if comic books, as liquid assets, have finally been recognized by entirely new regions of the world, like European and Asian and Arab investors?   We saw what happened when the Chinese and Arab upper crust dove into rare art.  That alone could explain the volatility with keys the past year.  And it could dwarf whatever impact we attribute to COVID boredom, unspent leisure cash, new collectors in this hobby, stimulus checks, sports card investors shifting to comics, etc.  Of course, I am talking about the big-boy-pants books now.  Does anyone actually know whether books are being bought for foreign accounts/addressess any more than in years past?   Any comic book  or auction site owners out there who can chime in?  

i dont see why this would have suddenly happened in just the last 1-2 months. and though the market did well since last summer/fall, nothing even close to what's going on with prices now was happening before december with most books. some have suggested all the crypto windfall money having something to do with this. it seems more likely, given the timing, than a bunch of foreign investors. crypto money is certainly is connected to the crazy NFT market explosion, so it seems possible to also be influencing this market. i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why. 

[MGsimba77]

5 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why.

...who are you...where did you come from...what do you want from us?...state your business  

Just kidding ... the more the merrier!

[drotto]

On 3/21/2021 at 9:01 AM, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

Personally, I would not want that book regardless of grade.  Please do not be offended by that statement. Something that faded is likely to be cheaper, but also a harder sale in the future if you decide to move it.

Edited March 22, 2021 by drotto

[MisterX]

An old label 9.0 with CREAM/OFF-WHITE pages just sold for $11,900 on eBay.

The Incredible Hulk #181 (Nov 1974, Marvel) CGC 9.0 759606086795 | eBay

I know, it's probably a CPR candidate, which might come back with OW/W pages, but still, dang!

[Pantodude]

On 3/21/2021 at 9:01 AM, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

Actually, do you know if it faded after it was graded, or is this a recent slab or CGC otherwise graded it with the same amount of fading?   It seems to me that, the fading aside, the book looks real nice....like 5.0 or more nice, which suggests that CGC already downgraded it for the fading.   If so, you should be okay selling it as a 3.5.   

[lou_fine]

On 3/21/2021 at 7:25 AM, KCOComics said:

On 3/21/2021 at 12:25 AM, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

@lou_fine you've been around this hobby for a long long time.  Have you ever seen anything similar to this market? I can think of individual books going crazy for a stretch. AF15 and Hulk1 experienced massive growth very quickly years ago.  When it happened to Hulk 1, I remember saying to my brother it had experienced 40 years of growth in less than 1 year.  I really wanted that book and kept waiting for prices to return... I'm still waiting. 

I can't personally remember a time when so many big books have moved at this pace, as the same time.  

Can you speculate on where we go from here? The bubble bursts and we see a 10% to 30% correction? 

The movement maintains and these prices become the new norm? 

Well, based upon my collecting experience, I strongly believe that the comic book market tends to move in cycles as the heat in the marketplace will move from one part of the market to another part as time goes by which then results in a general increase across the majority of the comic book marketplace before it cycles back and repeats itself all over again.  Of course, there's a whole lot of moving and overlapping parts all taking place at the same time.    

For example, I remember how hot the new book market was back in the early 90's with the Wizard driven craze for the Valiant and Image hot books of the day.  By the time this craze fizzled out, the heat was already well onto the early SA books by then which had just gone through an almost decades long pause in the marketplace prior to the turn of the late 80's/early 90's.  Not surprisingly, GA was not really invited to this party in the early 90's, but definitely more than made up for it in the mid-90's for a couple of short years there when they were seemingly the belle of the ball with dealers offering unheard of multiples of guide for GA books back then.  

No idea where we go from here as I am certainly seeing bubbles in various parts of the comic book marketplace.  What else can you really call it when you see relatively common BA and CA books like GS X-Men 1, NM 98, and even Transformers 1 selling into the $40K+ range.  Probably a big correction here for these types of books that are really up there due primarily to either short term movie related hype or transitory factors such as CGC's highest graded copies.  I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Those short term movie related hype books and highest graded copies brought at ridiculous prices are the one main place where I would expect to see a huge price correction over the short term.  For pretty much everything else, I would expect the standard ebbs and flows with the usual pauses in between as we have seen even with books like AF 15, Spidey 129, Hulk 181, etc. over time  I guess it really just depends on how long some of these pauses or slight down drafts are before they catch the next wave.      

Edited March 23, 2021 by lou_fine

[MGsimba77]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Would this apply across the board to all titles regardless of popularity? There were a few people around 2012 and beyond who might have regretted paying what they did in the early part of the 2000s for a 9.8 181. Was there some census filling going on post 2010? I wasn't even close to having enough funds in 2004 for a 9.8 181 being recently out of college. If I did I would of happily dished out 20k. If I'd asked dad to pay for a high grade ASM 1 in early 90's for what they were asking at the LCS he would have looked at me funny. I mean dad could have swung that easily but I never dared. I knew what the reaction would have been. 

[KCOComics]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, based upon my collecting experience, I strongly believe that the comic book market tends to move in cycles as the heat in the marketplace will move from one part of the market to another part as time goes by which then results in a general increase across the majority of the comic book marketplace before it cycles back and repeats itself all over again.  Of course, there's a whole lot of moving and overlapping parts all taking place at the same time.    

For example, I remember how hot the new book market was back in the early 90's with the Wizard driven craze for the Valiant and Image hot books of the day.  By the time this craze fizzled out, the heat was already well onto the early SA books by then which had just gone through an almost decades long pause in the marketplace prior to the turn of the late 80's/early 90's.  Not surprisingly, GA was not really invited to this party in the early 90's, but definitely more than made up for it in the mid-90's for a couple of short years there when they were seemingly the belle of the ball with dealers offering unheard of multiples of guide for GA books back then.  

No idea where we go from here as I am certainly seeing bubbles in various parts of the comic book marketplace.  What else can you really call it when you see relatively common BA and CA books like GS X-Men 1, NM 98, and even Transformers 1 selling into the $40K+ range.  Probably a big correction here for these types of books that are really up there due primarily to either short term movie related hype or transitory factors such as CGC's highest graded copies.  I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Those short term movie related hype books and highest graded copies brought at ridiculous prices are the one main place where I would expect to see a huge price correction over the short term.  For pretty much everything else, I would expect the standard ebbs and flows with the usual pauses in between as we have seen even with books like AF 15, Spidey 129, Hulk 181, etc. over time  I guess it really just depends on how long some of these pauses or slight down drafts are before they catch the next wave.      

 

This is pretty much how I feel. 

The current market isn't sustainable. That doesn't necessiraly mean a massive correction with prices reverting back to 2019.  It just means they can't keep rising like this and as the world opens up things will level off and possibly dip a bit. 

I also believe this is very different from what happened in the early 90s. While SA benefited from the interest in comics, that spike and eventual crash was really about moderns. Over produced #1 issues and variants that were manufactured to be collectors items.  

I guess all we can do is get some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show while it lasts. 

[KCOComics]

7 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Actually, do you know if it faded after it was graded, or is this a recent slab or CGC otherwise graded it with the same amount of fading?   It seems to me that, the fading aside, the book looks real nice....like 5.0 or more nice, which suggests that CGC already downgraded it for the fading.   If so, you should be okay selling it as a 3.5.   

I'm guessing it was submitted already faded. 

How long has CGC done that character label? 

[WolverineX]

On 3/22/2021 at 12:00 AM, www.alexgross.com said:

i dont see why this would have suddenly happened in just the last 1-2 months. and though the market did well since last summer/fall, nothing even close to what's going on with prices now was happening before december with most books. some have suggested all the crypto windfall money having something to do with this. it seems more likely, given the timing, than a bunch of foreign investors. crypto money is certainly is connected to the crazy NFT market explosion, so it seems possible to also be influencing this market. i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why. 

Agreed.  Similar demographic of people interested in crypto , nfts, comics,  cards,  etc.

[Poekaymon]

My issue with all the "things are crazy, the sky is falling, crash incoming!" type posts we seem to be bombarded with incessantly these days is not necessarily that they are wrong--they could very well be 100% correct, but that sentiment is primarily precipitated by quadruple and quintuple eyewatering gains in all sorts of seemingly random books (and the recent card craze), and then that sentiment gets applied to the mega keys which haven't gone up nearly as much, as in this thread.  But, comrades, there are way, way worse things to worry about first, and you have lots of canaries in your coal mine before it comes for H181.

So if Star Wars #1 goes back to 2k (last sale $7k), and NM 98 goes back to 900 (last sale $2500), and ASM 238 goes back to $1k (last sale $2600), and Ultimate Fallout #4 goes back to $500 (last sale $2900), and X-Men 1991 #4 goes back to $100 (last sale $400), and ASM 252 goes back to $500 (last sale $2250), and ASM 361 goes back to $500 (last sale $1400) [and that's just off the top of my head--then we have whole swaths of Turtles, Star Wars, variants, Knull, etc etc that is even grosser], after all that, then we can talk about the broader industry correction and the effect it might have on stuff like AF15, FF48, H181, X-Men #1, etc.  (Though I might argue that people would retreat to mega keys rather than abandon the hobby altogether so that might help prop up the megas. But that's for next time.)  

Edited March 24, 2021 by Poekaymon

[ghn999]

On 3/22/2021 at 9:41 PM, Pantodude said:

Actually, do you know if it faded after it was graded, or is this a recent slab or CGC otherwise graded it with the same amount of fading?   It seems to me that, the fading aside, the book looks real nice....like 5.0 or more nice, which suggests that CGC already downgraded it for the fading.   If so, you should be okay selling it as a 3.5.   

The hulk 181 was already faded when i sent it in. 

[Pantodude]

5 minutes ago, ghn999 said:

The hulk 181 was already faded when i sent it in. 

That's what I expected from the picture.  That is a nice book for a 3.5 price, especially for those appreciating something unusual!   

Edited March 24, 2021 by Pantodude

[ghn999]

I had to say good bye to it, I sold it yesterday for 2k! 

[Poekaymon]

7 hours ago, ghn999 said:

I had to say good bye to it, I sold it yesterday for 2k! 

Around a 2.5 value, so decent result, I'd say.

[mjoeyoung]

Time to buy Golden Age books I guess. 

[alexgross.com]

On 3/23/2021 at 8:25 PM, Poekaymon said:

My issue with all the "things are crazy, the sky is falling, crash incoming!" type posts we seem to be bombarded with incessantly these days is not necessarily that they are wrong--they could very well be 100% correct, but that sentiment is primarily precipitated by quadruple and quintuple eyewatering gains in all sorts of seemingly random books (and the recent card craze), and then that sentiment gets applied to the mega keys which haven't gone up nearly as much, as in this thread.  But, comrades, there are way, way worse things to worry about first, and you have lots of canaries in your coal mine before it comes for H181.

So if Star Wars #1 goes back to 2k (last sale $7k), and NM 98 goes back to 900 (last sale $2500), and ASM 238 goes back to $1k (last sale $2600), and Ultimate Fallout #4 goes back to $500 (last sale $2900), and X-Men 1991 #4 goes back to $100 (last sale $400), and ASM 252 goes back to $500 (last sale $2250), and ASM 361 goes back to $500 (last sale $1400) [and that's just off the top of my head--then we have whole swaths of Turtles, Star Wars, variants, Knull, etc etc that is even grosser], after all that, then we can talk about the broader industry correction and the effect it might have on stuff like AF15, FF48, H181, X-Men #1, etc.  (Though I might argue that people would retreat to mega keys rather than abandon the hobby altogether so that might help prop up the megas. But that's for next time.)  

i agree with you for the most part. hulk181 is a mega key and is alot like the big SA keys. but it has been flying up in price the last 1-2 months in much the same way some other books have exploded, and in a way that's not consistent with previous reality. so, i think that's why it's often lumped in with the really crazy books that have appreciated 5x in a month. but it's easily up at least 100% in many grades and still going. long term it is still a top 5 book to own for investment value, if not for the coolness factor. 

[Bludriver]

This sudden spike in prices has me worried. Just too many crazy prices across the board. If there is any Bronze Age book that deserves it is Hulk 181 but leaps like this scare me. I have never seen anything like this in this hobby.