I was wrong. Modern variants vs. Key Issues 0

[valiantman]

10 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I don't see how we don't ask that question.  And expanding on the point, what is it that is really driving demand now?  Scarcity of the books (1:1000, 1:10000, etc)?  FOMO?  Completionism?  I honestly don't know the answer to that.

There's a multi-hundred page topic in the Modern Age section that spends most of its time congratulating members for their brilliance in buying $2,000+ variants when they were only $20 to $1,000... and they really don't like it when you ask those kinds of questions about sustainability. It's sale-to-sale with those guys... and so far, nothing but celebrations.  But, we're talking about books with barely 100 copies on the CGC census... which means that as long as there are 101 buyers, the demand outweighs supply.  I thought demand would fall (or supply would increase) years ago, but I was wrong.  Therefore, my first post in this topic.

Edited August 16, 2018 by valiantman

[Not A Clone]

15 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I don't see how we don't ask that question.  And expanding on the point, what is it that is really driving demand now?  Scarcity of the books (1:1000, 1:10000, etc)?  FOMO?  Completionism?  I honestly don't know the answer to that.

A little of everything. Also depends on the book. If you ask any Spidey OCD collector like myself what's the hardest book to find if you are going for a complete collection & it's #667 Dell' Otto, hands down, not an early Silver age. It's one of those rare cases where stores didn't order it because it was a last second add on to their order sheet and it came immediately after stores ordered a bazillion copies of the store variants #666. Then there are the manipulated "rare" books like the 1:1000, etc. These are rare in the sense that stores were forced to over order regular covers to get one of these. Still, not really rare, but because of the actual cost involved to get one, the price will remain somewhat high. As soon as they put out 3 of these ASM 1:1000 within a year (and 2 within 4 issues), I had to say enough. It made me decide to screw the variant chase from #701-801. I have a ton in that run but I'll never complete it so I'm just going for the variants from 1-700. The latest #1 (LEG #802) also had a 1:2000 and it was from Erik Larsen!?! Who wants that? Well, that's my story on how I got driven out of the variant game. If I buy one now it's just because I really like the art & it isn't expensive. 

Edited August 16, 2018 by Not A Clone

[newshane]

6 hours ago, valiantman said:

The bubble may still burst on modern variants

Get out while you can.

I admit, I've done well, but the bubble will definitely burst.

[valiantman]

8 minutes ago, newshane said:

6 hours ago, valiantman said:

The bubble may still burst on modern variants

Get out while you can.

I admit, I've done well, but the bubble will definitely burst.

Right... when I say that I was wrong, what I mean is that for years I said, "don't buy $1,000+ modern variants; buy established keys instead" and I was wrong because modern variants didn't collapse as I predicted.  "Buy established keys instead" has always been the message.

[paul747]

I see some of these modern "keys" going for big money and I just don't get the logic behind some of them. A modern comic with ZERO key elements can be a $10,000 book because its a low print run? Please spend that same 10 grand on a silver key right now and lets compare that in five years. I mean I am a sucker for gimmicks and 9.9 books and Variants but they are established books with a key elements that are in higher demand, than a fad, low print modern.  It just seems like a  risky investment.  I am also of the school that there needs to be more copies than less copies to even make a book wanted. If there is only 30 copies of a random book will demand really increase? If it was a first appearance , key, classic story or killer art, I would say yes, but with out that . . This is my opinion and For those that own these books I guess its the point of entry or the collectible aspect that matters to them.

Edited August 17, 2018 by paul747

[Jaydogrules]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

Good example.  I was specifically thinking of the Wolverine #1 (2010) Campbell variant, but yours is an earlier example of the same concept.

Your question may have been rhetorical, but let's use GPA and figure it out.

" in hindsight, back in '06, how many 181s could I have potentially bought instead with that money?" ("close to $3 grand")

Let's call it $2,800, since you said "close to $3 grand".

In 2006:

CGC 9.4 Hulk #181 was between $1,800 and $2,800, so let's say $2,300 = today it would be $8,000

CGC 9.0 Hulk #181 was between $740 and $1,275, so let's say $1,000 = today it would be $5,200

CGC 8.0 Hulk #181 was between $400 and $847, so let's say $625 = today it would be $4,200

CGC 6.0 Hulk #181 was between $223 and $400, so let's say $320 = today it would be $2,600

CGC 4.0 Hulk #181 was between $178 and $225, so let's say $200 = today it would be $2,000

CGC 2.0 Hulk #181 was between $130 and $170, so let's say $150 = today it would be $1,200

 

For $2,820 you could have purchased a 9.4, 6.0, and 4.0, so the total would be $12,600

For $2,800 you could have purchased 2 at 9.0 and 4 at 4.0, so the total would be $18,400

For $2,800 you could have purchased 14 copies at 4.0, so the total would be $28,000

Even though no copies of CGC 9.6 Hulk #181 sold under $3,550 in 2006, let's say you were able to get one for $2,800.  It would be worth $11,000.

 

Did everyone expect the correct answer for investing in Hulk #181 slabs in 2006 to be buying as many 4.0 as possible? 

This is an interesting analysis.  

But hulk 181 is a top 5 book in the hobby. Wolverine 145 Nabisco is not even a top 50 variant.  

So let's do this with one of the top 10 variants like ASM 667, 678, Wolverine 1 Campbell/deadpool and/or UXM 510 partial sketch.  

-J.

[paperheart]

are these the same people who were buying bitcoin at $20k?

[RockMyAmadeus]

[ComicConnoisseur]

8 hours ago, valiantman said:

I believed that these modern variants selling for $1,000+ would have to fall because they were so expensive compared to older key issues.  I was wrong.  Key issues were too cheap relative to the prices of modern variants.

AF #15, Hulk #181, ASM #300, anything that's 25+ years old, key, and classic, has been on fire.  What changed?  Nothing old.  It was the new that changed.  New collectors who buy new comics for $1,000+.  They don't blink buying keys for the same prices... why would they?  Keys are a bargain.

Variants of comics are here to stay just like refractors in sportscards.

The first refractor sportscard was introduced in 1993. 25 years ago, and the majority of them are very desirable much more that 1980s key sportscards.

Every year there are sportscard refractors that sell for $1000s more than a Walking Dead #1 cgc 9.8

so I see the key comic variants following the same pace.

The game has changed.

[paul747]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

This is an interesting analysis.  

But hulk 181 is a top 5 book in the hobby. Wolverine 145 Nabisco is not even a top 50 variant.  

So let's do this with one of the top 10 variants like ASM 667, 678, Wolverine 1 Campbell/deadpool and/or UXM 510 partial sketch.  

-J.

Book should have to be on the market for 10-15 years before you can compare them. Some of these you listed just got hot in last 5 years(90's like bubble), they have not even had a down cycle. Wolverine #145 is a 20 year old book that has seen some price cycles. Every book you listed went up 200- 500 percent from 2013 not one (1) down cycle. For some reason all books that you mentioned had huge increases at the same time! Your a numbers guy, can you really have a fair average that has only seen an up cycle?

Edited August 17, 2018 by paul747

[Jaydogrules]

31 minutes ago, paul747 said:

Book should have to be on the market for 10-15 years before you can compare them. Some of these you listed just got hot in last 5 years(90's like bubble), they have not even had a down cycle. Wolverine #145 is a 20 year old book that has seen some price cycles. Every book you listed went up 200- 500 percent from 2013 not one (1) down cycle. For some reason all books that you mentioned had huge increases at the same time! Your a numbers guy, can you really have a fair average that has only seen an up cycle?

Well that's the point. @valiantmancompared a modern to a book to a book from the BA.  The moderns I mentioned are even more "modern" than wolverine 145.  Comparing one of the hottest books in the hobby to a third tier variant from 20 years ago is an unfair handicap.  If you're going to compare a top book to examine a return over a certain period of time, pick one of the top variants to do the comparison with.  The ones I mentioned are 7-9 years old, give or take.  That's more than enough to time to determine a price arc on a modern comic.  The point of this thread was to look at the rate of return of them as compared to an old "key". You don't prove anything by picking a dog variant and then saying "see I  told you!". I don't think anyone would argue that 99% of variants don't burn out.  But then, so do 99% of most comics, period.  But If you're going to do an honest analysis you look at the top ones, since it is the performance of those that triggered the thread in the first place.  

-J.

[FlyingDonut]

5 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

This is an interesting analysis.  

But hulk 181 is a top 5 book in the hobby. Wolverine 145 Nabisco is not even a top 50 variant.  

So let's do this with one of the top 10 variants like ASM 667, 678, Wolverine 1 Campbell/deadpool and/or UXM 510 partial sketch.  

-J.

It was in 2006. That's the entire point.

[Prince Namor]

10 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Well that's the point. @valiantmancompared a modern to a book to a book from the BA.  The moderns I mentioned are even more "modern" than wolverine 145.  Comparing one of the hottest books in the hobby to a third tier variant from 20 years ago is an unfair handicap.  If you're going to compare a top book to examine a return over a certain period of time, pick one of the top variants to do the comparison with.  The ones I mentioned are 7-9 years old, give or take.  That's more than enough to time to determine a price arc on a modern comic.  The point of this thread was to look at the rate of return of them as compared to an old "key". You don't prove anything by picking a dog variant and then saying "see I  told you!". I don't think anyone would argue that 99% of variants don't burn out.  But then, so do 99% of most comics, period.  But If you're going to do an honest analysis you look at the top ones, since it is the performance of those that triggered the thread in the first place.  

-J.

7-9 years isn't enough time to establish it holding value.

7-9 years it's the same 100 people selling the book back and forth to each other.

Will it hold it's value when new collectors enter the market or will they not be interested because it's only power was its speculation amongst a small subset of collectors hellbent on convincing the world that its scarcity was the only thing it needed to make it valuable.

[jsilverjanet]

14 hours ago, valiantman said:

Hypothetical question since you think you messed up in 2006...

In 2018, if you were offered a stack of 28 copies of CGC 9.8 Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant or a stack of 14 copies of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181, which would you pick (and why)? 

(Yes, there are infinite third options that I'm sure everyone is trying to imagine they would prefer instead, but I'm asking about just these two.)

14 copies of the Hulk 181

i lay them on the bed and roll around naked on them (sweaty of course) then proceed to list them one by one on eBay 

 

[jsilverjanet]

13 hours ago, paul747 said:

I see some of these modern "keys" going for big money and I just don't get the logic behind some of them. A modern comic with ZERO key elements can be a $10,000 book because its a low print run? Please spend that same 10 grand on a silver key right now and lets compare that in five years. I mean I am a sucker for gimmicks and 9.9 books and Variants but they are established books with a key elements that are in higher demand, than a fad, low print modern.  It just seems like a  risky investment.  I am also of the school that there needs to be more copies than less copies to even make a book wanted. If there is only 30 copies of a random book will demand really increase? If it was a first appearance , key, classic story or killer art, I would say yes, but with out that . . This is my opinion and For those that own these books I guess its the point of entry or the collectible aspect that matters to them.

I agree. Why spend that much on a book when you can get the original art for a bit more 

 

[Prince Namor]

22 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

I agree. Why spend that much on a book when you can get the original art for a bit more 

 

+1000

Edited August 17, 2018 by Chuck Gower

[zosocane]

What's driving demand on vintage material (I don't know Jack about variants) is tons of new collectors flocking in from the theaters since 2013 (specifically, the Avengers movie, which is the cause in fact of the current boom).  Comic book collecting is now hip.  New collectors (providing new liquidity to the hobby) are buying more affordable, lower grade copies from dealers/intermediaries, who purchased those copies from existing collectors that are selling their lower grade copies to upgrade to higher grade copies.  Also, existing collectors have renewed faith in the long-term prospects of the hobby and are doubling down, buying up more keys/semi-keys instead of deploying that cash into other assets.

It's all good!

[Aweandlorder]

One could use that as an example about different eras. Not just keys vs variants. For example it always baffled me that someone would pay 10k+ for a WD 1 9.9 when you could get a mid grade X-Men 1 for that money. 

[Jaydogrules]

9 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

It was in 2006. That's the entire point.

Uh no.

You'll notice that the OP in his own words was talking about the Wolverine 1 Deadpool variant from 2010, not the wolverine 145 nabisco variant.  He only did his preliminary analysis on that book (the 145) when someone else brought it up.  

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

2 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

I agree. Why spend that much on a book when you can get the original art for a bit more 

 

Because they are two different hobbies and collectibles and most people don't have interest in OA.  

Same kind of question could be asked- "why buy the original comic when you can spend so much less on a reprint?"

Answer to both questions- "Because I want to and I can."

-J.