Too rare to rise? 2 2

[october]

2 hours ago, adamstrange said:

 VD educational giveaway. 

So many deep pocket VD educational giveaway collectors. Such a hot genre right now. 

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, path4play said:

That just blew my theory.  Perhaps I'm applying a "rationale market" approach. There could be outliers - like a super wealthy boxer or something, that are willing to pay whatever regardless of future potential.  That's why likely if this came up for sale again, many buyers would treat it as an outlier and discount this sales price (imo).

 

I actually think the Hammer would be high upon re-auctioning.  It is an EC and there are several EC completest out there.

[path4play]

12 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

I actually think the Hammer would be high upon re-auctioning.  It is an EC and there are several EC completest out there.

Perhaps I'm victim of the "Fallacy of One."  And I'm not a buyer of this book at any price.  But for me, presuming there was one auction that priced a book I like 10K over all prior sales, I'm simply not using the one sale to set the new market value.

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by path4play

[Bo_Hogg1]

I own some of the rarest comics in the world that you can find in ANY condition. I have been hunting the rarest examples since I was 18. I am 45 now. I like rare comics because I love owning comics that nobody else has. I don't do it for the money. I do it for the love of it because I if I was doing it for the money, I would have collected only Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Sandman and all the first Marvel books like FF, Spidey, Hulk, X-Men (I do have an X-men # 1 so I cheated!) But I don't like these books because EVERYBODY has them. I love the reaction I get when I show someone a book they never knew existed and I love the fact that I am the only one that I know that has this book. Having what everyone else has is boring to me. I love what I collect and I love that if someone has to have a rare book and they can't find it, they have to come to me. I would not trade my books for mainstream books for anything.

[FlyingDonut]

5 hours ago, Bo_Hogg1 said:

I own some of the rarest comics in the world that you can find in ANY condition. I have been hunting the rarest examples since I was 18. I am 45 now. I like rare comics because I love owning comics that nobody else has. I don't do it for the money. I do it for the love of it because I if I was doing it for the money, I would have collected only Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Sandman and all the first Marvel books like FF, Spidey, Hulk, X-Men (I do have an X-men # 1 so I cheated!) But I don't like these books because EVERYBODY has them. I love the reaction I get when I show someone a book they never knew existed and I love the fact that I am the only one that I know that has this book. Having what everyone else has is boring to me. I love what I collect and I love that if someone has to have a rare book and they can't find it, they have to come to me. I would not trade my books for mainstream books for anything.

Would love to see some of those. Make a thread!

[PUNYHUMAN]

+1

[Knightsofold]

15 hours ago, Bo_Hogg1 said:

I own some of the rarest comics in the world that you can find in ANY condition. I have been hunting the rarest examples since I was 18. I am 45 now. I like rare comics because I love owning comics that nobody else has. I don't do it for the money. I do it for the love of it because I if I was doing it for the money, I would have collected only Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Sandman and all the first Marvel books like FF, Spidey, Hulk, X-Men (I do have an X-men # 1 so I cheated!) But I don't like these books because EVERYBODY has them. I love the reaction I get when I show someone a book they never knew existed and I love the fact that I am the only one that I know that has this book. Having what everyone else has is boring to me. I love what I collect and I love that if someone has to have a rare book and they can't find it, they have to come to me. I would not trade my books for mainstream books for anything.

I wanna see em!!!

[Knightsofold]

On 8/30/2018 at 1:06 PM, valiantman said:

The collective dollars is a very fun topic... but also pretty "controversial".  Let's say there is $200K spent total on AF #15 in a particular week.  If a regular comic book was released that week at $4 each, selling 60,000 copies, would we say that some recent issue of a random title has more "demand" than AF #15 because it sold $240K when AF #15 only sold $200K?  That would be weird... so I don't think that's a reflection of "demand". 

I agree on the weirdness, do you think comparing A15 sales to only back issues would make it more relevant?    If the total sold of all back issues (per week) was less than all new comics, I would think that means the demand for new is more.  Right?

 

On 8/30/2018 at 1:06 PM, valiantman said:

whenever one copy of Action #1 sells, it's likely that the 2nd highest bidder would be happy to pay their bid to obtain a second copy but there's not one available.  So the demand in terms of dollars spent was $100K (in your example), but it was at least $195K "demand" since the 2nd highest bidder did also want to buy one.  When there are multiple copies available and multiple copies sold, it's possible that everyone who wanted a copy was able to get one

This is a great point!  Unless the under was a shill bidder heh.  To be safe I'd say $195+ 1/2 to cover all the other "interest" in the book.  So $240k in demand in my example. 

 

On 8/30/2018 at 1:06 PM, valiantman said:

 

I think there is something important happening with the collective dollars, especially for the "total value of all known slabbed copies" or even some estimate using the average graded copy value multiplied by census total.  But, even that, is "controversial" since it's assuming that there's some economic principle that all the slabbed copies wherever they are somehow combine to represent a "demand" statistic that can be used to compare books of differt decades, quantities, hoards, slab-worthiness, or whatever.

This would be an interesting formula to see.  I think there's much to be learned from examining the census numbers, another thing I'd like to examine is how much closer high value books represent real world copies in existence.  

When raw book owners see high sales of key books, the incentive to slab shoots up for many reasons (insurance, investment planning, curiosity, and selling.  What patterns are there, is it correct to assume that the higher the value the more representative the census is of known copies, and at what price point does this accuracy start? 

I'd assume the accuracy starts when "entry level" copies (0.5) sell for at least 1k.

 

[Moondog]

Along with Bo Hogg I own some of the rarest books in the hobby - in my case DC ashcan issues.  There's no doubt in my mind that ashcans would be valued much, much higher if they were not so rare.  Earlier this week 2 incredible examples of DC ashcans sold at auction.  The Wonder Woman (unique) sold for $57,668 and the Superman (3 known to exist) sold for $83,000.  These prices are nothing to sneeze at but when you consider that the WW has now changed hands twice in 15 years and the Superman three times in 17 years, you start to understand that rarity inhibits confidence on the part of potential buyers.  I don't think anyone in any hobby or field of collecting wants to feel that he paid the absolute highest price that an item will ever sell for.  Collectors want to see a steady (or in some cases meteoric) rise in prices.

I still own 6 DC ashcans: Action Funnies, Action Comics, Superman, Superwoman, Superboy and Supergirl.  I believe these 6 books are arguably among the most important comic books ever created - and I'm the only person on the planet who owns them (the Superboy and Supergirl are the only copies known to exist).  That's a pretty cool position to be in and I relish it. 

The photo was taken in April when Action 1000 hit.  I was in the Daily Herald and on WGN radio talking about Action 1, Action 1000 and the Action ashcans.  Later that day I exhibited both books at the Comix Revolution shop in downtown Mount Prospect, IL.  About 50 people came out to see them.  Everyone commented on how cool they were.

Someday I may decide to sell them, but a more likely scenario is I'll pass away and they will go on the market then.  And that's fine with me.

[sfcityduck]

On 8/22/2018 at 3:13 PM, valiantman said:

 

Too rare to rise? 

 

Wonder Woman ashcan just sold for $57,668, having previously changing hands in 2003 for $17,250.    So rare can rise.

[valiantman]

10 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

On 8/22/2018 at 5:13 PM, valiantman said:

 

Too rare to rise? 

 

Wonder Woman ashcan just sold for $57,668, having previously changing hands in 2003 for $17,250.    So rare can rise.

That's a 3.34 multiplier over 15 years.  All-Star #8 CGC 6.5 went from $6,600 to $92,613 (multiplier of 14) in the same time period.  If All-Star #8 CGC 6.5 was only one-third of the Wonder Woman ashcan in 2003, why is it almost double the ashcan today?

[sfcityduck]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

That's a 3.34 multiplier over 15 years.  All-Star #8 CGC 6.5 went from $6,600 to $92,613 (multiplier of 14) in the same time period.  If All-Star #8 CGC 6.5 was only one-third of the Wonder Woman ashcan in 2003, why is it almost double the ashcan today?

Ashcans generally don't get the respect of real comics because they are a production/legal document not a real comic book.  The WW ashcan does not have a first appearance or anything else to recommend it as does the AS 8.  No ashcan has topped $90K, and I don't think that's solely due to rarity.  Instead, I believe that is largely due to resistance to the whole concept of ashcans being important.  They don't draw the biggest fish.  Still, the WW ashcan increased significantly without any intervening sales.   Which is the point.  

[valiantman]

5 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Ashcans generally don't get the respect of real comics because they are a production/legal document not a real comic book.  The WW ashcan does not have a first appearance or anything else to recommend it as does the AS 8.  No ashcan has topped $90K, and I don't think that's solely due to rarity.  Instead, I believe that is largely due to resistance to the whole concept of ashcans being important.  They don't draw the biggest fish.  Still, the WW ashcan increased significantly without any intervening sales.   Which is the point.  

I wasn't saying that rare books can't rise.  I'm saying they don't keep pace... these books are 50+ years old, well-established... and when you pick two books that have all that history behind them, such as the WW ashcan and AS #8, or books like NYWF 1939 and Superman #6... then move the clock forward (to today)... the rarely sold books can't keep pace.  Establishing a relative value for two 50+ year old books, well beyond their youth, shouldn't see that calculation completely change by year 60.

[fishbone]

On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 9:57 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Is MMC 9 too rare to rise? The guide value has stagnated. In 2012, a 6.0 guided for $12.5k. Today, it guides for only $15k. And this is a classic cover with the first superhero fight. There are only 5 books higher than a 6.0, so it’s not like people are waiting for a better copy.  The last reported sale for an unrestored copy was in 2012, and it went for Guide value.  No multiple.  It’s hard for me to believe that it would still go for Guide value today, but who knows . . .

12/14/2015

MARVEL MYSTERY COMICS #9, CGC 5.5 FN-

$23,583                       This was a multiple of guide.

Edited September 4, 2018 by fishbone