The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced"
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Too many 300's too. And before people start preaching about increasing prices being irrefutable evidence that demand surpasses supply...there was a point in history where there was a tremendous amount of "demand" for tulip bulbs too. How'd that turn out? 

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23 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I agree with you on the big push of the Venom in media part. Yeah, I don't see ASM #300 getting the high prices as IH#181, but I do see it going on a run where the prices now for ASM #300 might look cheap in 5 years .

Also, I think Venom is a lot more popular with non-comic book collectors than some realize.

looking at some numbers at the the box office.

Venom = Worldwide: $855,013,954

compared to the last Spider-Man movie.

Spider-Man : Homecoming = Worldwide: $880,166,924 

Pretty close, especially if we factor in Venom was a R-rated movie. 

My other reasoning is it will take them time to find a new replacement for Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, so while that is happening the Venom franchise will be taking off.

I expect the next Venom movie which will have Carnage in it to break 1 billion box office world wide.

So I see ASM #300 going on a run of its own the next 5 years. 

:preach:

I agree, that with Wolverine out of the picture right now for films, Venom could take an edge if it gets rolling with it's own films. Carnage definitely needs to be in the next film. They could go many ways with continuing films, such as exploring the current origin stories being produced in comics. Sony could also go with different Venom "hosts" for future movies (in case Hardy becomes too much money to cast). I would love to see Thunderbolts movie where they use Venom as a replacement for Spider-Man in the "Dark Avengers" line up. This could take place while everyone was "dead" during Infinity War (but that may just be a fantasy, since I would assume everyone returns during End Game). 

And yes, 5 years from now, I think ASM #300 could rocket up in price. If McFarlene's new Spawn and other properties start to take off, this might be a way that ASM #300 will also start taking off too

 

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3 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Too many 300's too. And before people start preaching about increasing prices being irrefutable evidence that demand surpasses supply...there was a point in history where there was a tremendous amount of "demand" for tulip bulbs too. How'd that turn out? 

HA! this is actually quite funny as I just watched the movie "Tulip Fever". 

spoiler alert:

Spoiler

Tulip prices fall hard!

 

:D

 

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46 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Too many 300's too. And before people start preaching about increasing prices being irrefutable evidence that demand surpasses supply...there was a point in history where there was a tremendous amount of "demand" for tulip bulbs too. How'd that turn out? 

Yep. And tulips were referenced again at the end of 2017 when cryptocurrencies jumped up. Remember bitcoin hitting 19k? It's sitting at a sweet 4K now.

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49 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Too many 300's too. And before people start preaching about increasing prices being irrefutable evidence that demand surpasses supply...there was a point in history where there was a tremendous amount of "demand" for tulip bulbs too. How'd that turn out? 

ASM #300 is on fire on Ebay right now. It outsells Incredible Hulk#181 by volume monthly. Now that could be because they are lower price on average than Hulk#181,but still the ASM#300 is selling very well.

Go to last 30 or 60 days sold on eBay and we will find ASM#300 is really selling many copies.

 

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52 minutes ago, DjMartini said:

I agree, that with Wolverine out of the picture right now for films, Venom could take an edge if it gets rolling with it's own films. Carnage definitely needs to be in the next film. They could go many ways with continuing films, such as exploring the current origin stories being produced in comics. Sony could also go with different Venom "hosts" for future movies (in case Hardy becomes too much money to cast). I would love to see Thunderbolts movie where they use Venom as a replacement for Spider-Man in the "Dark Avengers" line up. This could take place while everyone was "dead" during Infinity War (but that may just be a fantasy, since I would assume everyone returns during End Game). 

And yes, 5 years from now, I think ASM #300 could rocket up in price. If McFarlene's new Spawn and other properties start to take off, this might be a way that ASM #300 will also start taking off too

 

To clarify I think Hulk #181 and ASM #300 are both good future picks. I just think ASM#300 is going to go on a similar future run like Hulk#181 just did these last 5 years.

 

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Bejack3 said:

Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts.

"Never", really?! This is complete BS. lol

Edited by Darkowl

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3 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

"Never", really?! This is complete BS. lol

Ok as a strong rule of thumb. I'll wait for you to give me a good example to the contrary. (I will take FF52 out of the discussion as an outlier) Look at Iron man 55 and for the future look at TOS 52 and it's pricing around 7.0-8.0 right now with a movie 2 years away. Maybe longer with delays.

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2 minutes ago, Bejack3 said:

Ok as a strong rule of thumb. I'll wait for you to give me a good example to the contrary. (I will take FF52 out of the discussion as an outlier) Look at Iron man 55 and for the future look at TOS 52 and it's pricing around 7.0-8.0 right now with a movie 2 years away. Maybe longer with delays.

Ultimate Fallout 4 is the first one that comes to mind. The movie has been out for months, yet the book is still on the rise. 

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3 hours ago, DTM700 said:

Yep. And tulips were referenced again at the end of 2017 when cryptocurrencies jumped up. Remember bitcoin hitting 19k? It's sitting at a sweet 4K now.

We heard that about AF#15 for the last 10 years, so some collectibles could be considered maybe "tulip proof"?

Plus the comic key market has a much longer and steadier history than cryptocurrencies which is a volatilely market on steroids.

I understand and hear your warning though,but I just think there are certain collectibles like the Mickey Mantle Topps 1952 card, Black Lotus Magic card, and AF#15 that seem to be "tulip proof".

Should be interesting in the years ahead to see how both Hulk#181 and ASM #300 stack up.

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15 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

Ultimate Fallout 4 is the first one that comes to mind. The movie has been out for months, yet the book is still on the rise. 

Ew a modern book and a newly introduced character to many marvel fans. Silver or bronze please.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bejack3 said:

Ew a modern book and a newly introduced character to many marvel fans. Silver or bronze please.

House of Secrets 92. Been on the rise for years.

I can keep going. It's not hard. You make it sound like comics didn't appreciate until they started making movies on them. 

Edited by Darkowl

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6 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

House of Secrets 92. Been on the rise for years.

I can keep going. It's not hard. You make it sound like comics didn't appreciate until they started making movies on them. 

That is literally not what I said at all and this is starting to get complex. I did not exclusively say that comics increase in value due to movies, that would be absurd. I said that when people look at speculating on books for future value, they often think that a movie coming out will make it more valuable. I can demonstrate mathematically that the majority of the value increse occurs before the movie is released, and often books lose value post-release.

 

As a sidenote HOS 92 significantly heated up when Bernie and Len Wein both passed away (REST IN PEACE) in 2016 and there have also been JL:Dark movie speculations for the last several years with Guillermo del toro attached to it.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Bejack3 said:

That is literally not what I said at all and this is starting to get complex. I did not exclusively say that comics increase in value due to movies, that would be absurd. I said that when people look at speculating on books for future value, they often think that a movie coming out will make it more valuable. I can demonstrate mathematically that the majority of the value increse occurs before the movie is released, and often books lose value post-release.

 

As a sidenote HOS 92 significantly heated up when Bernie and Len Wein both passed away (REST IN PEACE) in 2016 and there have also been JL:Dark movie speculations for the last several years with Guillermo del toro attached to it.

"Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts." Is LITERALLY what you said, but it now sounds like that's not what you actually meant. 

HOS 92 has been increasing in value long before Wrightson's death, or the the JLD movie hype. 

Edited by Darkowl

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

"Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts." Is LITERALLY what you said, but it now sounds like that's not what you actually meant. 

HOS 92 has been increasing in value long before Wrightson's death, or the the JLD movie hype. 

Spider man 300, which everyone was talking about before we took over the thread, is a perfect example.

The 2016 average is at $1600.

In September 2018 before the movie comes out you couldn't find a 9.8 for less than $2500.

The 30 day average is at $1800.

So in the context of books with movie speculation, the rule that "Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts." holds true. That statement does not preclude spidey 300 from ever increasing in value prior to the movie speculation. The book has been on the market for 30+ years so that would be a factually incorrect statement.

To keep it real simple, if a book jumps up in value %30-100, and a dealer tells you to buy this book now because they are making a movie, you've likely missed most of the growth and it might not be a great purchase.

Edited by Bejack3

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Bejack3 said:

Spider man 300, which everyone was talking about before we took over the thread, is a perfect example.

The 2016 average is at $1600.

In September 2018 before the movie comes out you couldn't find a 9.8 for less than $2500.

The 30 day average is at $1800.

So in the context of books with movie speculation, the rule that "Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts." holds true. That statement does not preclude spidey 300 from ever increasing in value prior to the movie speculation. The book has been on the market for 30+ years so that would be a factually incorrect statement.

You can make anything sound like it's true, or is a "rule" given enough context. I'll certainly agree with you that speculation can obviously drive the value of books up (and even later come crashing down), but there are too many variables, restrictions, and unpredictable factors to account for before I would even feel comfortable with trying to establish a general "rule" for others to adhere to. IMHO, "trend" is a much more appropriate, and accurate term for what you're describing.

I'll agree with the essentials of your main point though. :foryou:

 

Edited by Darkowl

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

ASM #300 is on fire on Ebay right now. It outsells Incredible Hulk#181 by volume monthly. Now that could be because they are lower price on average than Hulk#181,but still the ASM#300 is selling very well.

Go to last 30 or 60 days sold on eBay and we will find ASM#300 is really selling many copies.

There are over 18,000 graded copies of Spidey 300, more than 6,000 in 9.4+ so it's not surprising that it's out-selling Hulk 181 in volume but looking at GPA I see a lot of down-arrows for this book in all grades. 

Edited by drbanner

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Posted (edited)

I don't know what you guys are talking about.  I found this sweet baby for only $3.99.  Bingo.

Now I can read about the Gaudily Garbed Gentleman fighting Jade Jaws for a very affordable price.

 

Hulk 181.jpg

Hulk 181-inside.jpg

Edited by lordisam

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5 hours ago, lordisam said:

I don't know what you guys are talking about.  I found this sweet baby for only $3.99.  Bingo.

Now I can read about the Gaudily Garbed Gentleman fighting Jade Jaws for a very affordable price.

 

Hulk 181.jpg

Hulk 181-inside.jpg

I've seen posts on Reddit from collectors who purchased this because they realized it would be the only way they could ever own the book. So some collectors have conceded altogether.

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