American Flagg #1 cover at HA.
0

146 posts in this topic

3,761 posts
15 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Definitely not a good return. I suspect some Impressionist art is still flat-to-down from their 1989-90 peak (as of a few years ago, that was definitely still the case). The current bull market in art has made people forget about 1990-1996, when everything got pole-axed and nothing was spared, not the lowest of the low, nor the best of the best.  

Can't find the link right now, but there was something else from Newhouse bought for $1m (iirc) in 1992 that did very well this week ($40m iirc?) Likewise a Warhol and a Rauschenberg bought from primary in the sixties both returned extraordinarily. The point being that "when" is just as important as "what". (I know you already know this Gene!) The Best of the Best model of buying tends to ignore the risk of bad "when". But do both of those right, in combination, you either have to get in early and have the "eye" to pick before the market sees it or...wait for a hard correction and buy deep on blood in the streets. And in both cases, then...HOLD. The extra advantage of that is you get to enjoy the art that much longer!

19 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Vodou's 15% rate of return benchmark is not so easy to hit anymore without taking substantial risk; just look at how badly pension funds are coping with their liabilities even with many asset classes near all-time highs. 

I intentionally challenge myself in a nearly impossible way. When you're playing the art game you're already deep in the risk endzone. Is this news to anyone? It's a physical object (with all the risks there), of zero utility, throws off no income, etc etc. To have a reasonable chance of exceeding* my target 15% annual you have to be very ready to do it not just think about it.

*the real goal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts

At a high level, I feel more comic book stories will be used for making movies and TV shows because of all the new studios (Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Netflix, etc) looking for material for generating original programming.  A person could look back at previous series and identify potential characters.series to turn into movies or TVs and have a hey day speculating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,470 posts
4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

They're not really there most anywhere these days. We're living in the easiest money times that have ever existed (negative interest rates in much of the globe!); money has flowed into anything and everything over the past decade in search of return, pulling forward returns and increasing valuations to all-time highs for most assets.  Vodou's 15% rate of return benchmark is not so easy to hit anymore without taking substantial risk; just look at how badly pension funds are coping with their liabilities even with many asset classes near all-time highs.  Hard to earn substantial returns when the center of gravity is down near zero.

Fair point and its nice to get that macro view of things sometimes during these discussions.    You do bring a different perspective and its nice to hear it.    That being said, I was just referring to collectibles specifically and I think there's always opportunities there precisely because does tend to follow that demographic wave.   I suspect your macro counterpoint would be that this is a digital generation etc etc as you've mentioned in the past and there may be truth to that.    However, I think the drive to collect, for at least a portion of the population is as intrinsic as the squirrel's drive to collect nuts for winter.   I don't think you can ipad that out of certain people.    Now, what they will collect...... a whole other ball of wax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,470 posts
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

At a high level, I feel more comic book stories will be used for making movies and TV shows because of all the new studios (Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Netflix, etc) looking for material for generating original programming.  A person could look back at previous series and identify potential characters.series to turn into movies or TVs and have a hey day speculating.

Okay.   But to the extent that's true, Hollywood will not limit itself to comic material.    It will use anything and everything it can to make a buck.    It may be that the best movie related spec of the future will relate to something other than comics.    Anything you can think of with a large built in audience will be grist for the mill.    Comics do make for a nice transition since the comic almost acts as a storyboard, but ultimately, its anything and everything with audience.

Edited by Bronty

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
1 hour ago, Bronty said:

Okay.   But to the extent that's true, Hollywood will not limit itself to comic material.    It will use anything and everything it can to make a buck.    It may be that the best movie related spec of the future will relate to something other than comics.    Anything you can think of with a large built in audience will be grist for the mill.    Comics do make for a nice transition since the comic almost acts as a storyboard, but ultimately, its anything and everything with audience.

100% agree, they will grab material from anyplace they can find it but comics do offer so recognition and potentially an "easy" path to a movie or series.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,222 posts
5 hours ago, batman_fan said:

100% agree, they will grab material from anyplace they can find it but comics do offer so recognition and potentially an "easy" path to a movie or series.

Yes, but with so many potential comic TV and movies coming down the pipe, even if you believe that OA will get a bump when that happens (and I think most people will agree that it won't happen with all comic properties, only a select few) if there are so many comic TV and movies, the impact to OA pricing will be minimal (or none) 

Regards,

Malvin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53,188 posts
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, buttock said:

This is really true.  I've sold about half of my collection this year to fund some other purchases/investments and had a good chunk of change left over.  I've been looking for some good buys to put that money back into and can't find anything so I bought a house instead.

I like how our hobby has been transformed from taking the proceeds of a sale to buy a (used) car to buying a house!

I remember in college in the mid-80s, one of my roommates sold a Hulk #1 (in Fair condition) and it was only enough for him to pay his share of the month's rent.

Edited by tth2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9,249 posts
4 hours ago, tth2 said:

I like how our hobby has been transformed from taking the proceeds of a sale to buy a (used) car to buying a house!

I remember in college in the mid-80s, one of my roommates sold a Hulk #1 (in Fair condition) and it was only enough for him to pay his share of the month's rent.

Well to be honest it was just a down payment.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53,188 posts
55 minutes ago, buttock said:
5 hours ago, tth2 said:

I like how our hobby has been transformed from taking the proceeds of a sale to buy a (used) car to buying a house!

I remember in college in the mid-80s, one of my roommates sold a Hulk #1 (in Fair condition) and it was only enough for him to pay his share of the month's rent.

Well to be honest it was just a down payment.  

But there are individual pieces or books that are worth the price of a house and some collections that could translate into a mansion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
11 minutes ago, tth2 said:

But there are individual pieces or books that are worth the price of a house and some collections that could translate into a mansion.

If by mansion you mean single wide trailer then count me in that group :banana:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9,249 posts
14 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

If by mansion you mean single wide trailer then count me in that group :banana:

Not where you live!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
4 minutes ago, buttock said:

Not where you live!

A single wide in Boulder can be had for less than $300k lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9,249 posts
48 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

A single wide in Boulder can be had for less than $300k lol

Flipped for $350k after a 2 month renovation 🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
16 minutes ago, buttock said:

Flipped for $350k after a 2 month renovation 🤔

If by renovation you mean pick up the trash in the yard then yes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
591 posts
18 hours ago, Bronty said:

I suspect your macro counterpoint would be that this is a digital generation etc etc as you've mentioned in the past and there may be truth to that.    However, I think the drive to collect, for at least a portion of the population is as intrinsic as the squirrel's drive to collect nuts for winter.   I don't think you can ipad that out of certain people.    Now, what they will collect...... a whole other ball of wax.

Kind of unrelated, but I was listening to a report yesterday that Urban Outfitters is going to begin renting clothes. Yes, you read that correctly.
Obviously if we are talking fashion, it's so very temporary and the turnover in styles is great. But at the core of what they were discussing in this program was that they are looking at a generation for whom owning things is so very low priority. That experiences is where they prefer to put their money, and so things like travel, and dining and events are important. Having their own clothes is not a big deal. So having every color variant of a whatsit is much farther down the list, on the whole. Are there some folks for whom the collecting bug is a thing? Sure. But how big will that segment be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
3 minutes ago, ESeffinga said:

Kind of unrelated, but I was listening to a report yesterday that Urban Outfitters is going to begin renting clothes. Yes, you read that correctly.
Obviously if we are talking fashion, it's so very temporary and the turnover in styles is great. But at the core of what they were discussing in this program was that they are looking at a generation for whom owning things is so very low priority. That experiences is where they prefer to put their money, and so things like travel, and dining and events are important. Having their own clothes is not a big deal. So having every color variant of a whatsit is much farther down the list, on the whole. Are there some folks for whom the collecting bug is a thing? Sure. But how big will that segment be?

I hear similar things and know a lot of the younger generation who have this mindset. It has been interesting watching as they transition from just out of college and single to serious relationships to married and see how they become more traditional. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,761 posts
6 minutes ago, ESeffinga said:

Are there some folks for whom the collecting bug is a thing? Sure. But how big will that segment be?

Oh. Man. We are definitely going to find out.

Let's remember this 20-30 group is the one that was oldest enough 10-15 years ago to understand how badly their parents effed up pre-housing collapse. They are all about in-the-moment experience, imo, and not "obligations" (that can bite you hard in the a-ess-ess for thirty years straight!) That would be the complete opposite of those same parents that teenaged in the go-go 1980s where "greed is good", followed by the Greenspan/Clinton 1990s where -simply- the stock market never, ever goes down. That's your two ends of the pendulum of 'personal experience informs lifestyle' right there.

The next group..? It will be interesting which direction they 'lean' more towards, excess w/commitment or it's now or never. Polls seem to indicate that they are going to be more consumers/collectors, more like X than millennial.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3,761 posts
2 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

watching as they transition from just out of college and single to serious relationships to married and see how they become more traditional. 

The handful I know and am 'watching' have...100%...gotten Master's of [insert garbage advanced degree that reinforces throw-your-money-away undergrad degree] and are buried in debt, live at home, and have no intention of marrying unless he/she is completely and totally perfect (uh huh). Not a surprise that nobody is finding that in their own peer group...but they all love George Clooney lol

This is 25-32 year olds. Older shakes their head in dismay (at those younger) and much younger...I don't know any personally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,322 posts
40 minutes ago, vodou said:

The handful I know and am 'watching' have...100%...gotten Master's of [insert garbage advanced degree that reinforces throw-your-money-away undergrad degree] and are buried in debt, live at home, and have no intention of marrying unless he/she is completely and totally perfect (uh huh). Not a surprise that nobody is finding that in their own peer group...but they all love George Clooney lol

This is 25-32 year olds. Older shakes their head in dismay (at those younger) and much younger...I don't know any personally.

Funny you mention the degree stuff. We have a college rental and the current tenants are moving out since they just graduated. Cost to parents is about $200k total for the four years of school. It was rented by 3 girls. One I don’t know what she is doing but the other two plans are:

girl 1 travel to India for one year studying yoga. She just felt a need to going back after a prior trip to become more spiritual. When she comes back she will attend an herbalist school in Colorado

girl 2 is going to work on a coop farm in  Canada. She will get room and board but hopes to also get paid some money. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,470 posts

So Eat, Pray, Maple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
0