Market is Insane 5 5

[grebal]

9 minutes ago, NoMan said:

You're obviously a smart man. You're smarter than me. I'm not joking. I've met you and know this to be true. I guess the problem is me. Look I'm a fan of summer movies, too but does every movie have to be a superhero movie? You'd think you guys that like this junk would be the ones worried about over saturation making this entire genre go the way of the westerns. 

Sigh, just gotta drink the kool aid.

Nah, we're in a golden age of comic book movies, seriously.  Appreciate it while it's here, and meanwhile watch a lot of TCM to avoid superhero burnout.  It's a golden-age bubble world all its' own.  Geez, they even had Citizen Cane a couple of months ago.   ; )

Meanwhile all those great Marvel (and generally mediocre DC) movies will still be in the can, I'm not going anywhere (and if I do then I'll be engaged with bigger problems).  I really can't wait to see Infinity War/Engame, I've been a Starlin fan since his 70s work on CM and Warlock - what I mean is I can't wait until I care enough to not be able to wait (sorta like anticipation postponed).

Edited June 4, 2019 by grebal

[NoMan]

[Black_Adam]

1 hour ago, TwoPiece said:

Some of these SA Marvel comics have awful wraps (I created a thread based on my search for Thor #126 a month or 2 ago). For whatever reason, most of the highest-of-the-high grade stuff 9.6/9.8, the wrap is just ugly. Maybe it's because all of the good-wraps in those grades are kept and rarely sold.

A really nice wrap in 9.0-9.4 is kinda what I'm focused on. I also have OCD that  with my collecting aspirations. My brain will set itself on fire if my SA stuff isn't all the same grade. If you don't have OCD, you won't understand, but all of the other losers with messed-up brains like me will empathize.

I think the reason so many 9.8s have awful wraps is because that miswrapped white back cover (now on the front) hides any spine ticks that would have normally shown on a correctly-wrapped cover. I will never understand how perfect centering doesn't affect the grade of a comic like it does with nearly every other collectible...

 

[Karl Liebl]

I think you are miffed TwoPiece because you can't afford that iron man 1 in 9.8 that you want.  Yet you belittle me when I spend 1100 to grade and press 4 silver age books.  It is all about rarity and a 9.8 grade is soooo difficult to obtain for a 1960's book.  You are spending the same amount on a comic book as a new car, I don't blame you for being perturbed.  In the end only you can decide.  At least for me I didnt have to buy the books.  I have groomed out dozens of books I wont be sending in that have minor defects, its just not worth it.  As the saying goes you got to pay to play...

[Krismusic]

2 hours ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Knowing my luck, I'd win the lottery, buy a £200 coffee and it'd have newton rings 

 

 

 

Did that work? 

if you have newton rings in your coffee chances are they're plastic coffee beans touching each other creating a optics effect.  

 

 

Did that work? 

[Get Marwood & I]

15 minutes ago, Krishosein said:

if you have newton rings in your coffee chances are they're plastic coffee beans touching each other creating a optics effect.  

 

 

Did that work? 

Yes. And it's normal 

[Krismusic]

2 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Aren't these market practices going to kill the hobby, too? I feel like that's a legitimate concern with excessive inflation. Sure, some people will cash-out high, but it's gotta crash at some point when you can't sell a book for ages, right..?

Either it moves to a rich man-only's hobby or kills enthusiasm for single-comic buyer's.

I'm no expert in economics, but I can't see this trend continuing. I know; A billion people have predicted another crash. The world's going to end some time, though, and that hobo on the corner will be right some day.

There will always be some rich person looking for things to buy to speculate on or "Invest". So chances are it wont crash completely, but I can see a market correction or adjustment many decades later depending on how the wealth is distributed in the economy, but there are new people coming into the market for many reasons and the younger generation is still exposed to these characters and many might start to collect for the love or nostalgia factor so I believe there will be at least another generation of buyers and sellers etc.. I've bought a few books off a few kids who are hustling their comics and statues and action figures lol. So I think the hobby will continue but as for pricing dropping off completely I don't think  so at least not for awhile. 

[Krismusic]

2 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

I'm falling into a hole I kinda wanted to avoid.

I started collecting for Modern SS stuff, since their verification method and process appeal to me greatly. I do have some nice signed books that aren't CGC, but Hel if I know they're real signatures since I didn't witness them myself.

Now I'm in a position where I'd really like to own some significant vintage original comics. I'm not opposed to buying raw, but CGC gives me peace of mind regarding restoration/conservation. You couldn't even call me an amateur because I know close-to-0 about detecting that stuff. So, the CGC aspect inflates the already-high price.

I guess I should study restoration and try to become an amateur-expert. I'm confident in my grading abilities. If I can learn the restoration game then I guess I won't want/need CGC's expertise on the subject. Not sure how long that'll take (or if I can even become an 'expert' without proper extensive training)...

you might want to buy a black light then and get a really good magnifying glass and get some resto books and look at the resto or restore some yourself 1$ books and submit them and see how they are spotted etc.. best of luck. 

[Chaos_in_Canada]

7 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Why would you a buy a 9.8 Silver Age key for 5 figures, when you could get a 9.6 for $8k?

Why buy a 9.6 for $8k when you can get a 9.4 for < $4k?

The prices seemingly continue to cut in half for each grade below. Why the insanity? Especially when the line between grades 9.0 and above are so thin. What is wrong with you people!?

This is, of course, speaking to the graded-comic market and not the raw comic market. Is the raw market any more stable and reasonable?

Do you own any CGC comics? 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Chaos_in_Canada

[Crops068]

2 minutes ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Do you own any CGC comics? 

[kimik]

1 hour ago, Black_Adam said:

I think the reason so many 9.8s have awful wraps is because that miswrapped white back cover (now on the front) hides any spine ticks that would have normally shown on a correctly-wrapped cover. I will never understand how perfect centering doesn't affect the grade of a comic like it does with nearly every other collectible...

 

+1

I can't stand miswraps on anything 9.4 and up. At NM or better, centering should matter just as much for comics as it does with sportscards.

[Aweandlorder]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

The collectible is the same, the availability is the variable.  Even if you presume the grade is arbitrary, 10 copies of one and 30 of another will result in different prices for the "limited to 10" than the "limited to 30 and identified-as-lesser-quality than the 10".

The collectible is the same

the grade is different. Simple

The fact that its listed on someones inventory as "1 of 10" doesnt make it the only known copy in such condition, nor should it.

The census is a cool tool to follow, but it shouldnt be quantified as, lets say, a print run. Theres plenty of "healthy" debate regarding that topic

[paperheart]

6 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Iron Man #1 numbers are the ones I used in the OP, but it's seemingly the same among most SA keys, despite different pyramids of quantity on the census.

I know, it's even worse with Moderns, because a 9.8 may fetch $200 and the 9.6 might only go for $40.

There are smaller differences in price between 8.5 and 9.0 despite being much different in grade (mostly). 9.4 to 9.6 is the matter of a very small defect. It's insanity.

9.8 I can usually understand, since it's the most-common near-Gem grade. It's kinda the 'gold standard'. The drops from there are monstrous.

that is insane. who would pay $40 for a 9.6 modern? those seeking "lowest graded on the census?"

[valiantman]

11 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

The collectible is the same, the availability is the variable.  Even if you presume the grade is arbitrary, 10 copies of one and 30 of another will result in different prices for the "limited to 10" than the "limited to 30 and identified-as-lesser-quality than the 10".

The collectible is the same

the grade is different. Simple

The fact that its listed on someones inventory as "1 of 10" doesnt make it the only known copy in such condition, nor should it.

The census is a cool tool to follow, but it shouldnt be quantified as, lets say, a print run. Theres plenty of "healthy" debate regarding that topic

I'm saying that a CGC census which shows 10 copies CGC 9.8 and 30 copies CGC 9.6 is a valid (quantifiable) reason for a CGC 9.8 to sell for more than double the price of the CGC 9.6.

Are you saying it isn't? 

[Aweandlorder]

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I'm saying that a CGC census which shows 10 copies CGC 9.8 and 30 copies CGC 9.6 is a valid (quantifiable) reason for a CGC 9.8 to sell for more than double the price of the CGC 9.6.

Are you saying it isn't? 

What is this, a trick question?

Grades are not print runs or variants, nor should they be considered as such

[MGsimba77]

2 hours ago, NoMan said:

No. In hopes the 4 or 5 media companies that are left can divert some of that super-hero billions and make, I dunno, some films with a beginning, middle and end that would play in a movie theater. Two plot points, ect. I.e. Better movies. I'm so sick of super hero movies. I can't be the only one. 

I'd like a world where a film like The Bridge over the River Kwai could be made and shown in theaters today. Is that too much to ask? Can we have 3 less sequels, re-whatevers, comic book movies a year and have a Bridge over the River Kwai get made and released?

It's just not going to happen. Endgame just made more money than God! Heck even Venom from way lower budget Sony made a boat load! I don't know if a movie studio's decision to move forward on something they didn't think would be profitable has anything to do with superhero films.

They're not going away nor should they if public demand maintains. There is enough room for the the "Philadelphias" (Tom Hanks) and "Ghost" (Patrick Swayze) of the world along with superheroes. I don't think it's a zero sum game.

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 hours ago, Black_Adam said:

I think the reason so many 9.8s have awful wraps is because that miswrapped white back cover (now on the front) hides any spine ticks that would have normally shown on a correctly-wrapped cover. I will never understand how perfect centering doesn't affect the grade of a comic like it does with nearly every other collectible...

 

I think it does, just maybe not as severely as you or some would like. It seems like CGC does not grant Gem Mints or 9.9s to comics that aren't perfectly centered. After the knock down to 9.8, I don't think they take it into further consideration.

That's all conjecture, though.

[Kon_Jelly]

19 minutes ago, MGsimba77 said:

I don't think it's a zero sum game

Bingo. There was plenty of low-quality films when Bridge Over the River Kwai was created, they're just forgotten. Same will happen with films from this era. 

[theCapraAegagrus]

2 hours ago, Krishosein said:

There will always be some rich person looking for things to buy to speculate on or "Invest". So chances are it wont crash completely, but I can see a market correction or adjustment many decades later depending on how the wealth is distributed in the economy, but there are new people coming into the market for many reasons and the younger generation is still exposed to these characters and many might start to collect for the love or nostalgia factor so I believe there will be at least another generation of buyers and sellers etc.. I've bought a few books off a few kids who are hustling their comics and statues and action figures lol. So I think the hobby will continue but as for pricing dropping off completely I don't think  so at least not for awhile. 

As the generations get younger, they get seemingly more poor. So, IMO, the prices are gonna drop eventually. The inflation can't/won't continue forever.

[theCapraAegagrus]

1 hour ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Do you own any CGC comics? 

Yez.

I just haven't ventured out of Modern Signature Series until recently.