Heritage's Next Event Auction has started posting books ! 31 31

[Bronty]

1 hour ago, tth2 said:

It could be the best comic in history, but $90k or $50k are both nuts.  It's not that hard to find in 9.8.  

If you miss one, just wait and another one will come up for sale.

don't get me wrong; like most people I'd much rather have a 9.4 for 25% of whatever of the price.

But, you take the best book of the last X years and the 9.8 grade and whether its some doofus with claws or 4 goofy turtles, people are going to pay.   We can call it unwise and maybe it is, but it will happen.

Edited November 2, 2019 by Bronty

[Bronty]

here's teh turtlemania on ebay

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Turtlemania-Gold-CGC-9-2-Numer-6-10/133214837987?hash=item1f04391ce3:g:A4kAAOSwfiddsd8E

[october]

10 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I wish we knew who the winning bidder and underbidder were. Paying $90K for a scarce collectible seems routine, but paying that much for such a common book seems bizarre. The buyer had to be somebody with money to burn, someone who is bipolar and was in a manic phase, or someone who owns a long box of the things and wanted to manipulate the market.

No one has a longbox of TMNT 1. 30 total copies in 9.8 is not common.

$90k seems crazy to me too, but let's not go overboard. It's a great book, and FAR, FAR more important than some of the golden age stuff bringing $25k+ with no more than a nice cover to go for it.

Edited November 2, 2019 by october

[Gotham Kid]

1 hour ago, Bronty said:

here's the turtlemania on ebay

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Turtlemania-Gold-CGC-9-2-Numer-6-10/133214837987?hash=item1f04391ce3:g:A4kAAOSwfiddsd8E

Edited November 2, 2019 by Gotham Kid

[Dark Knight]

Danngg!! What a price for that Turtlemania book  . Had I found that book in say my long box and didnt know anything about it, I'd probably think it's worth $100 tops 

TMNT 1 is the holy grail for millennials! Now that they are in their 30s, I'm sure there's a few highly successful and uber rich individuals who can afford $100k+ to buy a comic book. I grew up watching the original turtles cartoons, movies, and played with the toys. But to me, I personally do not see TMNT 1 as a $90k book. Not that hardcore over turtles like some are. 

[Crowzilla]

14 hours ago, szav said:

There's a lot of money in this world, and I've become desensitized the amounts people will spend on sentimental collectibles.  In a world where Pokeman Illustrator Cards, and Magic the Gathering OA get close to 100k nothing truly shocks me anymore.

close? That last illustrator card sold for almost $200K.

[Howling Mad]

4 hours ago, october said:

No one has a longbox of TMNT 1. 30 total copies in 9.8 is not common.

$90k seems crazy to me too, but let's not go overboard. It's a great book, and FAR, FAR more important than some of the golden age stuff bringing $25k+ with no more than a nice cover to go for it.

I'm sorry, 30 copies in 9.8 isn't common. 30 copies...9.8...not common?

In comparison to maybe Action Comics 1 or Captain America 1, sure, but that's INCREDIBLY common. I'm not placing judgment on the value or whether it's a wise pick-up (I don't believe it is, at least not long-term), but let's call it what it is. A fairly common yet super high-demand book.

[october]

49 minutes ago, Howling Mad said:

I'm sorry, 30 copies in 9.8 isn't common. 30 copies...9.8...not common?

In comparison to maybe Action Comics 1 or Captain America 1, sure, but that's INCREDIBLY common. I'm not placing judgment on the value or whether it's a wise pick-up (I don't believe it is, at least not long-term), but let's call it what it is. A fairly common yet super high-demand book.

Common is the lowest degree of rarity. Spider-Man 300 and 361 are common. New Mutants 98 is common. Hulk 181 is common. Eternals 1 is common.

30 copies of TMNT 1 in 9.8 is NOT common. It's in an entirely different category of scarcity and shouldn't be lumped into the examples above. 

[Howling Mad]

20 minutes ago, szav said:

I'd put money on it being a $150k book within 10 years.   And to call it common is to reveal you don't know much about it.  Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

It's a once in a generation book that influenced the hobby as much as Action 1 and AF 15, that's organically scarce.  Not like the rest of this modern garbage that was manufactured to be rare. 

It's particularly interesting to see this apparent jump at a time when TMNT is not exactly at a peak in its popularity.  There's no movie or anything driving this right now. I think that's a testament to the worth of the book itself.

I'll let it rest till the end of the auction now this is the GA forum I know! … 

Maybe "common" is a bad term, but if anything the print run to 9.8 ratio proves my point further. It's not that uncommon in high grades. There's books with VASTLY larger print runs that have the same number or less of 9.8s. This could be for a variety of reasons, but strictly speaking given the low print run, limited distribution, and non-major publisher nature, 30 doesn't seem extremely scarce--despite what the Gerber index may or may not be. Of 897 on the registry, which is a significant portion of the original run, 350 are graded 9.0 or above. That's a lot.

I'm not arguing the merit of the book, or it's contributions. I grew up with TNMT, I get it, but I don't think it's that big of a mystery why it's jumping in price. Individuals in the same age group can now afford nostalgia. This is the same thing we're seeing with Japanese Domestic Market cars, and is reminiscent of muscle cars about 20 years ago. Or video games, which have skyrocketed in the past 5 years. Will it be a $150K book 10 years from now? Maybe. It's just as likely it'll be a $10K book. Who knows. There's always market forces at play.

EDIT - these are my final thoughts on this as well, not trying to clog things up.

Edited November 2, 2019 by Howling Mad

[Gotham Kid]

24 minutes ago, szav said:

Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

I'm willing to bet all 3000 copies survived. How many GA books total 3000 ?

[Gotham Kid]

But indeed, this is a discussion for the Copper forum, of which I will never venture into.

Edited November 2, 2019 by Gotham Kid

[Tbone911t]

2 hours ago, szav said:

I'd put money on it being a $150k book within 10 years.   And to call it common is to reveal you don't know much about it.  Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

It's a once in a generation book that influenced the hobby as much as Action 1 and AF 15, that's organically scarce.  Not like the rest of this modern garbage that was manufactured to be rare. 

It's particularly interesting to see this apparent jump at a time when TMNT is not exactly at a peak in its popularity.  There's no movie or anything driving this right now. I think that's a testament to the worth of the book itself.

I'll let it rest till the end of the auction now this is the GA forum I know! … 

IMO I'd say a Gerber 5 for this book is a bit of a stretch.

[Gotham Kid]

8 minutes ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers.

[Tri-Color Brian]

Wow, this is pretty hot and heavy.  Sounds like it's time for a joke:  Two guys walk into a bar.  The bar tender walks over.  Another guy walks out of the bar. People are just walking around...

[lou_fine]

On 11/1/2019 at 9:25 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

On 11/1/2019 at 9:17 PM, Gotham Kid said:

This.

Although I don't expect this one to sell for 100K like the last one. If it does, I might have to be hospitalized.

I wish we knew who the winning bidder and underbidder were. Paying $90K for a scarce collectible seems routine, but paying that much for such a common book seems bizarre. The buyer had to be somebody with money to burn, someone who is bipolar and was in a manic phase, or someone who owns a long box of the things and wanted to manipulate the market.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that you will never ever see me spending even a fraction of this kind of money on this particular book.  Well okay, unless I have a guaranteed crazy buyer willing to pay me even crazier money to take it off my hands.    

Especially after a LCS owner offered to order me a copy of the book some 30+ years ago directly from the publisher if I was willing to fork over $300 for it.  Took a look at some of the sample artwork which he had for the book and thought that it looked like absolute doggie doo doo and said to myself that nobody in their right mind would ever pay that kind of money for it.  Took him up on his second offer though and forked over $40 for the now worthless signed and numbered limited edition of Batman The Dark Knight by some guy name Frank Miller that was about come out.    

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, szav said:

Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

 

6 hours ago, szav said:

6 hours ago, Tbone911t said:

IMO I'd say a Gerber 5 for this book is a bit of a stretch.

I'd say its far more likely a 4 but I don't think 5 is that much of a stretch. Gerber 5 = 1000 copies or less.  There's 897 on census, and who knows what percent of those are CPRs and duplicates on census.

You can't seriously think there's less than 1,000 copies of this book remaining in existence when there's already almost 900 copies in the census.  

Have you forgotten about all of the raw copies that are still sitting out there in private collections since the owners have absolutely no reason to have them graded since it's still not time for them to sell their copies yet?    

Being a CA book with a print run of 3,000 copies with a huge percentage of them already graded and in relatively high grade at that, I would have to say this book is more like a Gerber 2 in that it can generally be found without too much trouble.  The only proviso being that you have the money and are willing to pay up for it.  

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

6 hours ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers.

+1

I can't think of a single GA book, unless it was part of a huge warehouse find, that would have even close to a quarter of this census number count.  

[Gotham Kid]

43 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

7 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

7 hours ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers.

+1

I can't think of a single GA book, unless it was part of a huge warehouse find, that would have even close to a quarter of this census number count.  

Batman 1

266 copies graded to date.

Edited November 3, 2019 by Gotham Kid

[tth2]

16 hours ago, Bronty said:

don't get me wrong; like most people I'd much rather have a 9.4 for 25% of whatever of the price.

But, you take the best book of the last X years and the 9.8 grade and whether its some doofus with claws or 4 goofy turtles, people are going to pay.   We can call it unwise and maybe it is, but it will happen.

Do 9.8 IH 181s go for $90K?!

[Gotham Kid]

In other good news, the OA to Batman 251 is at 366K and Marvel 1 is steadily climbing at 276K