Forbes article 2 2

[Rick2you2]

2 hours ago, vodou said:

Still misunderstanding. Nobody is sitting on all keys from a low cost basis. What you bring up, valid (again), but not materially different or any more than actionable than me saying MIcrosoft IPO was a steal 35 years ago. Or "buy up Inverted Jennys as a hedge against the unlikey end of stamps use (?!! huh!?!!) and thus hobby collapse".

Not sure how valid it is to just hold "the best of the best". There are a lot of owners of rare Beanie Babies who can't unload them at anything resembling market value. And while it hasn't dipped as badly, antique furniture of significant provenance isn't doing so hot either. 

[exitmusicblue]

Disney can't drive everything, for better or worse...

[vodou]

19 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Not sure how valid it is to just hold "the best of the best". There are a lot of owners of rare Beanie Babies who can't unload them at anything resembling market value. And while it hasn't dipped as badly, antique furniture of significant provenance isn't doing so hot either. 

Only valid to the extent that there will always be bagholders, to them we give some comfort (but not much more than break even nominally, maybe, on their cost basis!)

Well...market value is just that; "what can you unload for". So I think we know what that is, $0 for most all BBs except what that hobby deems best of the best (of BBs). Compared to other hobbies...all BBs (even the super rare BOTB) are...essentially zeroes.  BOTB in dying or dead hobby is only relevant to the extent that "some" bragging rights yet exist, "some" liquidity yet remains. But that's about it. The rest are junk (as to price, how much one loves them is another matter, of course!)

Better to not hold any BBs (or insert similar dead hobby) at all, BOTB or otherwise. Except for that "love" thing or the inability to realize a loss personally, pressing it upon your Estate instead

Edited July 7, 2019 by vodou
clarity

[BCarter27]

Can someone loan me some of their Bronze pages for about 10 years? No reason.

Edited July 8, 2019 by BCarter27

[delekkerste]

 

23 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

The kids will make their own memories. These are yours. 

 

22 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Spot on.  I think all of us must think about when we exit on our collections rather than leave it for a disinterested family to try and deal with.  I am 55 right now and have about 10,000 raw comics and several hundred CGC books. 

These are both spot-on, but, I think that a lot of Pollyannas in our hobby are not putting the two together and realizing what the implications are longer-term. 

These are our memories.  And, because we were introduced to this material at a young age, over time, we built up collections of thousands of comics, hundreds of slabs and hundreds of pieces of original art.  For the hobby to continue going from strength to strength, it's not enough to just replace every Gen X collector with a younger collector (which we are going to fail miserably to do anyway) - every younger collector has to clear the market at ever-increasing prices!  Yes, all those thousands of comics, hundreds of slabs and pieces of OA will all eventually have to find new owners in the coming years/decades. 

There is just no way that the younger generations will be able (or want) to do so.  It's as close to a mathematical impossibility as you can get without technically being impossible.  It's no wonder that younger collectors have, for the most part, abandoned "run collecting" and that "key collecting" (keys, classic covers, etc.) has become the norm on the comics side of the hobby. First, keys are more social-media (Instagram) friendly, but, second, collecting keys is also less work and, crucially, less money than collecting both the keys and the non-keys.  I don't see too many younger collectors having any desire to build up collections of thousands of books and hundreds of pieces of original art (and most certainly don't have the financial resources to do so), especially as these collectors get farther and farther away in age from when this material originally came out.  Best case remains that, what money remains in the hobby ends up propping up the truly key material (as has happened in other hobbies past their secular peak) while most other things decline in value in real terms. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if most everything ends up in secular stagnation/decline eventually.  

Again, that's not to say that this isn't the strongest OA market we've ever seen, as we are at/near peak spending power for Gen X, peak asset inflation overall, peak cultural mindshare for comic book properties, etc.  But, the farther you go out, I think it becomes more and more of an inescapable, inevitable conclusion that there's going to be a seismic shift in aggregate supply and demand in the comic book and comic art hobbies that's going to cause a demographic pile-up that seems unimaginable to most now, at a time when things have never looked better.  

Edited July 8, 2019 by delekkerste

[vodou]

16 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Again, that's not to say that this isn't the strongest OA market we've ever seen, as we are at/near peak spending power for Gen X, peak asset inflation overall, peak cultural mindshare for comic book properties, etc.  But, the farther you go out, I think it becomes more and more of an inescapable, inevitable conclusion that there's going to be a seismic shift in aggregate supply and demand in the comic book and comic art hobbies that's going to cause a demographic pile-up that seems unimaginable to most now, at a time when things have never looked better.  

Oh...you mean the ol' cliff-dive?

[Bronty]

Not sure I'd call 1.16 to 1.12 a 'cliff dive' :P 

 

I'd just call that graph 'lopping off the bottom 96% of the picture' 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Bronty

[stinkininkin]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

 

 

These are both spot-on, but, I think that a lot of Pollyannas in our hobby are not putting the two together and realizing what the implications are longer-term. 

These are our memories.  And, because we were introduced to this material at a young age, over time, we built up collections of thousands of comics, hundreds of slabs and hundreds of pieces of original art.  For the hobby to continue going from strength to strength, it's not enough to just replace every Gen X collector with a younger collector (which we are going to fail miserably to do anyway) - every younger collector has to clear the market at ever-increasing prices!  Yes, all those thousands of comics, hundreds of slabs and pieces of OA will all eventually have to find new owners in the coming years/decades. 

There is just no way that the younger generations will be able (or want) to do so.  It's as close to a mathematical impossibility as you can get without technically being impossible.  It's no wonder that younger collectors have, for the most part, abandoned "run collecting" and that "key collecting" (keys, classic covers, etc.) has become the norm on the comics side of the hobby. First, keys are more social-media (Instagram) friendly, but, second, collecting keys is also less work and, crucially, less money than collecting both the keys and the non-keys.  I don't see too many younger collectors having any desire to build up collections of thousands of books and hundreds of pieces of original art (and most certainly don't have the financial resources to do so), especially as these collectors get farther and farther away in age from when this material originally came out.  Best case remains that, what money remains in the hobby ends props up the truly key material (as has happened in other hobbies past their secular peak) while most other things decline in value in real terms. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if most everything ends up in secular stagnation/decline eventually.  

Again, that's not to say that this isn't the strongest OA market we've ever seen, as we are at/near peak spending power for Gen X, peak asset inflation overall, peak cultural mindshare for comic book properties, etc.  But, the farther you go out, I think it becomes more and more of an inescapable, inevitable conclusion that there's going to be a seismic shift in aggregate supply and demand in the comic book and comic art hobbies that's going to cause a demographic pile-up that seems unimaginable to most now, at a time when things have never looked better.  

Ok, just to jazz things up...I joined this list in 2008, and while it is hard to disagree with the logical case you make, I've been reading this roughly same message from you and others this entire time (and the archives say well before I joined to boot).  I'm not sure where it all leads, but it seems like the timeline keeps getting extended, to the point where the prognosticating becomes less relevant to just about everyone short of the total newbs that are just getting into the hobby at just the "wrong time".  But again, this was generally what you were saying 10-15 years ago.  So there's that.

Like I said, I believe like you that something is going to happen.  Eventually.  To some degree.  But beyond that, I got nothin'.

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by stinkininkin

[ESeffinga]

I always assumed Gene thought once the boomers were out, things would drop off some. But it seems like Gen X has largely absorbed most of the difference in the hobby, with a few exceptions.
Though there are signs of some stalwarts softening. The recent discussions on the long term prospects for Conan being a reasonable example. And even that one is a loaded topic, with social norms shifting as much as economic ones.

I know early on, I thought Gene was a bit ahead of himself, but more and more I see other signs that things are getting more... complicated.
Income hasn't truly kept up for a large swath of the population. The cost of art has risen, and I know many of us have said time and again, if we'd not started when we did, we'd not have the collections we do now. And so SOMEONE is buying the work. But it still does seem inevitable that the willingness and wherewithal to absorb that much "collection" is just not there. At least not for now. If the established folks can't afford it, who can? Right now, it's a bit of an x-factor. Others would know more than I.

And just maybe in the next 10-15 years, there will be yet another economic boom for someone somewhere. Pendulum swinging and all that. But looking at the numbers posted now, and hearing the names of the folks posting those numbers, we still aren't seeing a ton of fresh blood in the hobby to take on all these items from the Boomers, and from GenX. And it's not just comics. The vintage instrument field is down a fair bit still from before 2008. Vintage cars, down. Vintage this and that, everywhere. Everything started somewhere, And for a long time we had enough folks in the world to suck it all up, keep it in good shape, and want to share and show off these possessions with their peers.

At the risk of inviting political discourse into the conversation, with the advent of further automation and AI putting more and more jobs out to pasture, I don't see people spending quite the same $ on having things around as they once did. It was a time and place. Our time and place. But society evolves along at it's own pace. Technology has sped up that evolution. And we get a front row seat.

 

 

[vodou]

45 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Not sure I'd call 1.16 to 1.12 a 'cliff dive' :P 

 

I'd just call that graph 'lopping off the bottom 96% of the picture' 

LOL. It's Forex, and trust me that was more than enough drama to wipe out many trading accounts!

Expect worse for things that people don't use daily, like um, their own country's sovereign currency

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, stinkininkin said:

Ok, just to jazz things up...I joined this list in 2008, and while it is hard to disagree with the logical case you make, I've been reading this roughly same message from you and others this entire time (and the archives say well before I joined to boot).  I'm not sure where it all leads, but it seems like the timeline keeps getting extended, to the point where the prognosticating becomes less relevant to just about everyone short of the total newbs that are just getting into the hobby at just the "wrong time".  But again, this was generally what you were saying 10-15 years ago.  So there's that.

Like I said, I believe like you that something is going to happen.  Eventually.  To some degree.  But beyond that, I got nothin'.

 

I was wrong back then - I missed the generational changeover...by an entire generation.  I had a framework but, admittedly, nothing backing it up back then; when I developed the knowledge and information sources over the ensuing 15+ years, I found out how the pieces actually did all fit into place. 

It's not difficult to see why prices are what they are now - much of the transfer of art from the Baby Boomers to Gen Xers occurred at much lower prices, and the latter generation has done well for themselves and are still in their peak spending/nostalgia years nowadays, while we have seen massive asset price inflation everywhere and comics/superhero fare has become super popular over the past 15+ years.  

But, the next transfer of art between generations will occur - for things to keep going higher and higher - at levels that simply cannot be afforded, in the aggregate, by the next generation. I mean, it's not mathematically possible once you go out far enough to age out the last generation that grew up with this material to the extent that the pre-1996ers did (1996 marking the Marvel bankruptcy, the end of the speculator era of comics, the start of the endless shakeout of local comic shops, and the start of people's interests being pulled in a near-infinite number of different directions).  And you're already seeing early signs that not all boats will keep floating as we continue on into the future, whether it's run collecting in comics being supplanted by key collecting, or a number of '70s-era artists and genres fading in popularity.  Heck, nobody wants to say it (or, maybe they aren't paying attention), but, much of even the Kirby market appears to be, if not stagnating in price, then at least trailing some of the hotter Copper Age favorites.  

Assuming that things will find a way to work out as they always have is going to be a big mistake over the long run. Math > rearview mirror extrapolation > hopes & prayers  

Edited July 8, 2019 by delekkerste

[delekkerste]

20 minutes ago, ESeffinga said:

I always assumed Gene thought once the boomers were out, things would drop off some. But it seems like Gen X has largely absorbed most of the difference in the hobby, with a few exceptions.

Yes, and this was a huge, huge, huge, mistake.  I remember @FlyingDonut saying to me in one of the early "crash" threads on the Boards that the Gen Xers were just coming up back then.  And he was right, of course!  The generation with perhaps the greatest affinity for comics, growing up with them before the world's interests were scattered in a a near infinite number of directions from the Internet, and huge financial resources, was coming up right behind the Baby Boomers, at a time when people weren't being saddled with so much student debt and had a long runway of economic growth, outsized portfolio returns, easy access to credit, etc. to add napalm to the mix.  I think I even gave a mea culpa on one of my Felix Comic Art podcasts about this - I was just completely talking out of my  at the time, with little to back it up except recent experience (the 2000-2002 tech bubble bursting and bear market, which turned out to be a cyclical downturn).  Obviously, if I could do it over again with what I know now, I'd know better!  Still, I think it's better to trust someone who's been burned and learned from the lesson than just your typical "don't confuse brains with a bull market" permabull who thinks the last 30 years is going be the blueprint for the next 30 years.  

[Bronty]

53 minutes ago, vodou said:

LOL. It's Forex, and trust me that was more than enough drama to wipe out many trading accounts!

 

Yes, and enough to make people betting the other way a lot of money!   But that still doesn't make it a cliff dive. 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Bronty

[FlyingDonut]

On 6/30/2019 at 5:43 AM, Rick2you2 said:

There may be nostalgia for buying comics, or art, but the specific artists who drew issue xyz of some long cancelled comic? How much nostalgia is there for all those old school collectors of marbles? Have you seen how the prices of antique furniture has slumped over the past 20 years? Or collectible crystal?

Two rules hold in all collectibles and have held FOREVER.

The Rule of 25 - what a 12-17 year old boy wanted 25 years ago and could not afford will become hot now as those boys become men in their late 30s and early 40s with disposable income. This will continue for 50 years until you hit

The Rule of 75 - where all of those men are now dead and no one collects those things anymore.

These two Rules are inviolate. They have always held for everything. "But Donut! People still want to buy (fill in the blank) and that was a long time ago" - yes, but they have been continually collected over that time, so the Rule of 25 will apply. Once stuff stops being wanted by men who wanted it when they were 12-17 25 years previously, that will die out as a collectible.

Just a short list of things where this has happened:

1) Stamps
2) Tarzan
3) Postcards
4) Crystal
5) Furniture....here's a hint - sell that mid-Century modern stuff RIGHT NOW.

 

[vodou]

18 minutes ago, Bronty said:

But that still doesn't make it a cliff dive. 

Oh. Okay.

[Bronty]

Just now, vodou said:

Oh. Okay.

[Bronty]

39 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Yes, and this was a huge, huge, huge, mistake.  I remember @FlyingDonut saying to me in one of the early "crash" threads on the Boards that the Gen Xers were just coming up back then.  And he was right, of course!  The generation with perhaps the greatest affinity for comics, growing up with them before the world's interests were scattered in a a near infinite number of directions from the Internet, and huge financial resources, was coming up right behind the Baby Boomers, at a time when people weren't being saddled with so much student debt and had a long runway of economic growth, outsized portfolio returns, easy access to credit, etc. to add napalm to the mix.  I think I even gave a mea culpa on one of my Felix Comic Art podcasts about this - I was just completely talking out of my  at the time, with little to back it up except recent experience (the 2000-2002 tech bubble bursting and bear market, which turned out to be a cyclical downturn).  Obviously, if I could do it over again with what I know now, I'd know better!  Still, I think it's better to trust someone who's been burned and learned from the lesson than just your typical "don't confuse brains with a bull market" permabull who thinks the last 30 years is going be the blueprint for the next 30 years.  

Well, OK, but if you had really learned from that experience you might not be so quick to pizz all over the things people were into 25 years ago, like mtg and games.   You say you've figured it out but you continue to apply the same thinking.   That will get you the right answer with respect to comics but not with respect to other collectibles that are coming up.    

I don't know if I'd apply the 25/75 thing quite as harshly as Donut but if you agree with him, then agree with him, for all that entails.   (Even if that means *gasp* people collecting Pokemon cards because they liked them 25 years ago).

Edited July 8, 2019 by Bronty

[vodou]

20 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Well, OK, but if you had really learned from that experience you might not be so quick to pizz all over the things people were into 25 years ago, like mtg and games.   You say you've figured it out but you continue to apply the same thinking.   That will get you the right answer with respect to comics but not with respect to other collectibles that are coming up.    

I don't know if I'd apply the 25/75 thing quite as harshly as Donut but if you agree with him, then agree with him, for all that entails.   (Even if that means *gasp* people collecting Pokemon cards because they liked them 25 years ago).

Excellent point made. I've no personal interest in any of that stuff above beyond watching people pay way too much for them today (in expectation of selling same for way-way too much tomorrow). But I don't confuse my personal lack of interest as being the same as everybody else's. Heck...some people really, really like BWS Conan. I'm not in that camp either. And when I was putting everything after the rent money into 1980s comic art twenty years ago...the line of people telling me I was a durned fool was quite long. Chief among them...anybody over the age of 35. We all know who is having the last laugh there.

I'm even cool with Pokemon ripping higher. The one I cannot accept is POGs ever being worth more than a handful of sand. Dumb idea then, completely forgotten today. (Right?)

[Bronty]

1 minute ago, vodou said:

The one I cannot accept is POGs ever being worth more than a handful of sand. Dumb idea then, completely forgotten today. (Right?)

Yeah.   That only lasted five minutes.

[delekkerste]

40 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Well, OK, but if you had really learned from that experience you might not be so quick to pizz all over the things people were into 25 years ago, like mtg and games.   You say you've figured it out but you continue to apply the same thinking.   That will get you the right answer with respect to comics but not with respect to other collectibles that are coming up.    

C'mon, that's what you got from my  you about MTG?   I've actually barely given any thought to MTG other than knowing that you about it is good fun.   You certainly don't see me starting any MTG crash threads or otherwise "applying the same thinking".  

Also, I'm allowed to think something is stupid but not think the price is going to crash - just witness the U-turn I did on Bitcoin earlier this year right before it quadrupled. I still think it's stupid, but, that doesn't mean I couldn't be bullish on the price at the time. 

Edited July 8, 2019 by delekkerste