Your Predictions Please
0

132 posts in this topic

1,483 posts

In light of the ongoing debate on the Forbes thread, would anyone like to commit themselves in print as to how different segments of the market may rise and fall over the next 25 years? More specifically, how about at 5 year, 10 year, 20 and/or 25 year intervals?

Since this is my idea, I may as well go first. I hope I don't end up eating my words. 

In 5 years, run of the mill 1970's work will show an actual decline, as it seems to now be doing. Same with 1960's work, except for important artists or key characters. But, kitchy stuff from the 1950's to 1970's will show a small resurgence--the sillier the better (in particular, romance or crummy horror). The trend will continue, with books from the 1960's to the 1980's peaking in about 15 years (prices may not drop, but sales will). In the next 20-25 years, the trend expands to cover the 1990's and 2000's. By the year 2040, this hobby starts falling in on itself in terms of pricing.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,880 posts

I am going to say in the next 5 years, I don't expect a lot of change from the current trend.  Premium material will continue to set records.  B-grade stuff will still do well, other stuff and new stuff will be mixed with hot artist/titles doing really well and just like today, everything else does "okay" but quick flips tend to lose money.

10 years we may start to see some leveling off on prices but premium stuff will still go up.

25 years (shrug)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
915 posts
1 hour ago, eewwnuk said:

How many predictors will be alive 25 years from now?

^^^^This^^^

Someone tell me how much carbon will be in the atmosphere 25 years from now and maybe I'll start speculating about how valuable comic artwork will be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,483 posts
1 hour ago, eewwnuk said:

How many predictors will be alive 25 years from now?

I will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,483 posts
18 minutes ago, glendgold said:

^^^^This^^^

Someone tell me how much carbon will be in the atmosphere 25 years from now and maybe I'll start speculating about how valuable comic artwork will be. 

Since there seem to be a lot of opinions on what's going to happen, take a guess at the longer range. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
86 posts
Posted (edited)

I think when an artist surpasses their craft and grows into popular culture icon/rock star status, they become somewhat impervious to aging out and we will always see (some) growth in value for their art. I cant think of many who fit this bill. But there are a few. They are the ones we recognize easily by face or who created iconic pieces that we equally recognize instantly. The Sinatra, Jagger, Elvis types....icons.  In time, none of us will have been around to see these icons in concert or will have bought an album of theirs hot off the billboards but their music and impact will never go away. So the big question is...who are these comic artists? 

Edited by Stan Singh
Spelling mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54,961 posts

In 25 years, it will all be worthless, because the global economy will be in ashes.  All assets, including collectibles and art, will be worth pennies except for gold, ammo and canned food (unless it contains Beyond Meat).  

You'll all be sorry you didn't listen to me! :preach:

-Gene

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
216 posts

Next 5-10 years, stable, with more and more differentiation between A pieces and standard pieces.  A pieces being prime pages from Kirby, Ditko, Byrne, Miller and Jim Lee.

I have given a lot of thought to the 25 years + scenario.  Assuming Earth is still healthy, and society and economy structures are more or less the same as today (and this is a big, big assumption, considering climate change and technological disruption), I think OA coming from the second half of the 20th century will gravitate towards an "intrisic value" reserved to a one of a kind piece of art-craft (let's no go into the art vs craft bit here), well made, pleasant to the eye, sympathetically representative of a culture from a certain historical period.  For somethig like this, I think there will be demand, and there will be an "intrinsic value" of arounf USD3000 per page and USD15000-20000 per cover, with progressively less differentiation as content will become less and less relevant to new buyers.

Can't wait till I can get my hand on a Kirby Sinnott twice up FF cover for 20K - even though I will be able to enjoy it only for a couple of years!

Carlo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,483 posts
5 hours ago, Stan Singh said:

I think when an artist surpasses their craft and grows into popular culture icon/rock star status, they become somewhat impervious to aging out and we will always see (some) growth in value for their art. I cant think of many who fit this bill. But there are a few. They are the ones we recognize easily by face or who created iconic pieces that we equally recognize instantly. The Sinatra, Jagger, Elvis types....icons.  In time, none of us will have been around to see these icons in concert or will have bought an album of theirs hot off the billboards but their music and impact will never go away. So the big question is...who are these comic artists? 

Make some guesses. Then maybe we can look back and see how you did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,483 posts
2 hours ago, Carlo M said:

Next 5-10 years, stable, with more and more differentiation between A pieces and standard pieces.  A pieces being prime pages from Kirby, Ditko, Byrne, Miller and Jim Lee.

I have given a lot of thought to the 25 years + scenario.  Assuming Earth is still healthy, and society and economy structures are more or less the same as today (and this is a big, big assumption, considering climate change and technological disruption), I think OA coming from the second half of the 20th century will gravitate towards an "intrisic value" reserved to a one of a kind piece of art-craft (let's no go into the art vs craft bit here), well made, pleasant to the eye, sympathetically representative of a culture from a certain historical period.  For somethig like this, I think there will be demand, and there will be an "intrinsic value" of arounf USD3000 per page and USD15000-20000 per cover, with progressively less differentiation as content will become less and less relevant to new buyers.

Can't wait till I can get my hand on a Kirby Sinnott twice up FF cover for 20K - even though I will be able to enjoy it only for a couple of years!

Carlo

Thank you for stepping up.

What about Adams? Old masters like Eisner?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,404 posts

Asia will be the undisputed de facto financial and cultural (let's not beat around the bush...religious too) center of world no later than 2035. (Sorry Rome, sorry Jerusalem). And for the next several hundred years. You want predictions for what's "hot" in fifteen, twenty, fifty years? What do Chinese, Indians, Koreans, Vietnamese, et al want? I really, really, really, want? I do not think it will be any Western/American comic art. Definitely not Captain America ( lol ). So, while all the buyers and disposable money will be "there" we'll still be trading our favorites among ourselves with less and less capital too, over time.

The one save might be the repatriation (that's already been going on for twenty years) of "lost" to The West Asian masterpieces completing to be followed by "taking" all "our" masterpieces too to flesh out their (side) trophy rooms. I liken this to the masters of the industrial revolution taking everything Old Master that wasn't nailed down out of Europe in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. I think it's reasonable to expect that, but maybe not for another twenty years or more. Still plenty of Asian treasures to pull back in first...and true capitalism has yet to be fully embraced across the board (China especially but the class/caste system is still present in most of the other countries too).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
995 posts

This is truly difficult to predict as Millennials and Gen Z’a don’t read.  They play video games and watch you tube, Netflix, etc.  

If they show any interest in comic art, i think it would be based on TV and video games.

by the way, I’m sure we’ve already noticed HA and Clink offering graded video games and Magic/Pokemon cards for sale in their comics and oa Auctions...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23,743 posts
14 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

In light of the ongoing debate on the Forbes thread, would anyone like to commit themselves in print as to how different segments of the market may rise and fall over the next 25 years? More specifically, how about at 5 year, 10 year, 20 and/or 25 year intervals?

People think that things become harder to predict the farther out you go, but, that's not necessarily true.  For this hobby, I think the very short-term (hottest market ever) and very long-term (secular stagnation/decline) are not hard to figure out.  Figuring out what happens in-between is where the uncertainty lies.  

I don't have a strong view on 5 and 10 years out; as a base case, I think Greg's view on not much change over 5 and a leveling out on a lot of stuff by 10 years makes sense as a template until we see evidence to the contrary.  I suspect that the demographic/secular peak will be reached by 20 years and will likely be very apparent by 25 years from now (and even the biggest Pollyannas out there will have to own up to reality 30 years out).  I mean, in 25 years, the biggest current owners of OA will be in their early 70s at a minimum, with many in their mid/late 70s or even their 80s.  Many will have cashed out by then (and some likely won't even be with us anymore :(). Most of the biggest OA dealers today are in their 50s and 60s - 25 years from now, as difficult as it may be to fathom - they are ALL likely to have retired from the hobby, and a good amount of their personal collections will likely have hit the market to boot.  At some point, we'll be getting multiple Doc Dave or Frank Darabont sized collections cashing out every quarter instead of one a year (seriously, just think about how many sizable Gen X collections are out there...it's staggering).  And the guys who were buying when earlier collectors cashed out in the 2000s and 2010s?  They'll largely be the ones selling! :ohnoez:   

There are some collections in this hobby worth more than an entire year of current Heritage offerings, and you could easily piece together numerous small groups of collections owned by people in their late 40s to early 60s today to come up with comparably-sized future supply.  We're no longer going to be seeing auctions with 99% sell-through and record prices when the Gen Xers age out, it's simply not going to be possible. :sorry: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,404 posts
6 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

There are some collections in this hobby worth more than an entire year of current Heritage offerings, and you could easily piece together numerous small groups of collections owned by people in their late 40s to early 60s today to come up with comparably-sized future supply.

There is no supply problem with comic OA. (Just like there is no "Simonson Thor" supply problem.) We all know that nearly everything from 1965 on "exists", which is awesome because that's what most everyone wants! There has been a tremendous bottle-necked flow problem. Thank you very much you greedy hoarders (as I pat myself on the back here too.) But this is true less and less every year as great collections formed over decades are dispersed in one or two years of coordinated sales. Already. Only more to come as delekk..... writes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
86 posts
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Make some guesses. Then maybe we can look back and see how you did.

My assertion was that, like some rock stars, some comic artists' impact will live on long after their generations because they have surpassed their mediums to become icons. So while the exercise below is ridiculous, and I'm neither an OA or music expert, here are my comparisons for comic artists who's popularity and impact will live long past when the medium they used falls out of the popular culture. I see these artists, like these musicians retaining popularity or even experiencing huge resurgences in popularity over many generations to come. 

Miller= J. Cash

McFarlane=Jagger

Adams= Clapton

Romita=McCartney

Ditko=Hendrix

Kirby=Elvis

Frazetta=Bowie

You may lol now ;)

 

Edited by Stan Singh
Spelling mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
995 posts
5 minutes ago, Stan Singh said:

My assertion was that, like some rock stars, some comic artists' impact will live on long after their generations because they have surpassed their mediums to become icons. So while the exercise below is ridiculous, and I'm neither an OA or music expert, here are my comparisons for comic artists who's popularity and impact will live long past when the medium they used falls out of the popular culture. I see these artists, like these musicians retaining popularity or even experiencing huge resurgences in popularity over many generations to come. 

 

Kirby=Elvis

 

Young Elvis or fat Elvis?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2,218 posts

I think that if you're going to look for people to "break out", they have to do more than comics, or have a status that's beyond comics.  There are a limited number of names that I can think of like that.

Maybe someone like Chris Ware or Jamie Hewlett.

Or someone who's appreciated by the non-collectors.  Like Alex Ross.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
86 posts
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Young Elvis or fat Elvis?

Early Elvis=early kirby.

Fat Elvis=late Kirby.

Still obviously the king but slowed down a lot. 

Edited by Stan Singh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
0