Thoughts on Stocks and Coronavirus and Comics 4 4

[fastballspecial]

its always a spending problem. So much pork in every bill its such a dirty game. Everyone is Congress
shares some guilt.

 

[the blob]

2 hours ago, mattn792 said:

You're not wrong about that, there's certainly a time and place for intervention.  But what about these past 10 years, until COVID-19 brought the bull market to a screeching halt?  Two administrations have ignored the opportunity to unwind the Fed's balance sheet and actually take a bite at the national debt.  In the best of times we were staring at a trillion dollar budget deficit.  That ain't right.

 

I would make that three administrations. Bush II had a great opportunity to run a surplus even with the 2000/2001 crash (there were surpluses in both years), but decided to get involved in a 2 front war. The deficit was $442 billion in 2015 and $585 billion in 2016. So while it was huge during the recession in 2009 and a couple of years thereafter, they got down when things were good economically. Yes, those are higher than I'd like, but not crazy. His successor, however, needlessly exploded the deficit during boom times, I agree. But 10-15% unemployment and that kind of instability for years will bring social upheaval. We probably will get a genuine socialist elected president then.

 

[the blob]

1 hour ago, JJ-4 said:

The debt is a huge problem, and not only do we not take in enough in taxes but we have a spending problem as well.  That said, the more you make the more you have to pay in taxes.  Full stop.  There is certainly room for simplification of the tax code but saying that the rich pay less that the middle class is just not true.

I don't disagree. But the very rich (who tend to have income via capital gains and other income taxed at a lower rate than labor) pay about half the overall tax rate I do. Part of that is compounded by me paying SS on nearly all of my income and they may not pay it on any of their's. I am upper middle class simply by virtue of the fact that I live in a two white collar professional home and my wife, literally, has 4 jobs and never stops working. Yes, obviously, unless they are in some "no tax" situation due to various loopholes and loss carry overs or whatever, they pay more than I do in total $. But we have a tax system that rewards investment and passive income (and also building a company, hard work for sure), does not reward "labor" the same way. Until I have some huge capital gain that gets favorable tax treatment I am not thrilled with this.  I am not all in on confiscatory tax rates and all that, but, at a minimum, I don't think these folks should pay lower than I do.

 

[JJ-4]

24 minutes ago, the blob said:

I don't disagree. But the very rich (who tend to have income via capital gains and other income taxed at a lower rate than labor) pay about half the overall tax rate I do. Part of that is compounded by me paying SS on nearly all of my income and they may not pay it on any of their's. I am upper middle class simply by virtue of the fact that I live in a two white collar professional home and my wife, literally, has 4 jobs and never stops working. Yes, obviously, unless they are in some "no tax" situation due to various loopholes and loss carry overs or whatever, they pay more than I do in total $. But we have a tax system that rewards investment and passive income (and also building a company, hard work for sure), does not reward "labor" the same way. Until I have some huge capital gain that gets favorable tax treatment I am not thrilled with this.  I am not all in on confiscatory tax rates and all that, but, at a minimum, I don't think these folks should pay lower than I do.

 

Agee on income vs capital gains taxes.  Thought this would be helpful for everyone else who is reading this.

 

[the blob]

17 minutes ago, JJ-4 said:

Agee on income vs capital gains taxes.  Thought this would be helpful for everyone else who is reading this.

 

Let's not forget 6.4% whatever social security and other doo dads on your first $130somethingthousand of individual income. (I won't even get into the 13.4% or whatever in local income taxes I pay, that isn't Warren Buffet's problem)

If all your income is capital gains and qualified dividends your rate is 15-18.8% (15% + a 3.8% medicare sur-tax) in that upper middle class income range. And you don't pay SS taxes on it either. I think it goes to 23.8% (20% + the sur-tax)  in the $500K+ range. So, yeah, that 3.8% sur-tax on higher incomes may make it a bit more than half the % I pay, so billionaires may be paying a bit more now. yay!  Of course, that is before deductions billionaires have that I probably don't as a stupid wage slave. Granted, I am a disgusting lawyer, so I deserve this, but the infectious disease specialist going to war right now who pays nearly 2X the tax rate as the hedge fund manager...

 

[dupont2005]

4 hours ago, the blob said:

This is what some folks said in 2008/9 and while there were certainly issues with that bailout, we did technically get out of the recession by the second half of 2009 and the S&P 500 had bounced back by the end of the year. I am not in favor of a 2-3 year recession and 15-20% unemployment in the name of fiscal discipline.

 

I’m ok with Liberian cruise lines going under. And I feel like airlines should have some sort of penalty for spending 96% of their cash over the last decade on stock buybacks and then needing half a trillion dollar bailout after what, three slow weeks? We can spend money while still being somewhat fiscally responsible. Like by buying stake in these airlines. You need a bailout, we will take controlling interest in your airline, fire the executive staff and replace them with five figure salary government employees, and see how that goes. 

[kav]

[James J Johnson]

1 hour ago, kav said:

 

[sfcityduck]

On 3/2/2020 at 11:26 AM, sfcityduck said:

 

BUT, I THINK THE CORONAVIRUS COULD MAYBE HAVE AN IMPACT THE COMIC MARKET!  Why?  It could easily have an adverse impact on convention attendance and dealers.  The focus should probably be on the cause of the stock market uncertainty, not on the market itself.

 

Bringing this thread back full circle, the impact of coronavirus on the comic market is now devestatingly clear and much worse than any thought: Cons cancelled yes, but also new comics cancelled, LCS’s mothballed, comic movies delayed, and potentially more to come.  As predicted the real impact was from the virus not the stock market.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

Bringing this thread back full circle, the impact of coronavirus on the comic market is now devestatingly clear and much worse than any thought: Cons cancelled yes, but also new comics cancelled, LCS’s mothballed, comic movies delayed, and potentially more to come.  As predicted the real impact was from the virus not the stock market.

Those are all good points, but I do think the stock market adversely affects the sale of $10k and over books. The higher priced the book, the more adverse the affect. Few people had their money just sitting naked in a checking account. Those people who did defied custom. Those who did not, which is  most people, mostly had it in . . . wait for it . . . the stock market. And nobody wants to sell out stock at the loss they would have to bear. Right now, with the 3rd straight day of gains, the stock market it still down 20%. And IMO, these gains are only in fleeting response to the stimulus package, and will soon go back about its business of tanking. I’m not going to sell stock at the losses I would have to take to pick up new books. 
 

ergo, books over $10 k have been adversely affected by the stock market. But this is just my opinion.

[mattn792]

10 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Those are all good points, but I do think the stock market adversely affects the sale of $10k and over books. The higher priced the book, the more adverse the affect. Few people had their money just sitting naked in a checking account. Those people who did defied custom. Those who did not, which is  most people, mostly had it in . . . wait for it . . . the stock market. And nobody wants to sell out stock at the loss they would have to bear. Right now, with the 3rd straight day of gains, the stock market it still down 20%. And IMO, these gains are only in fleeting response to the stimulus package, and will soon go back about its business of tanking. I’m not going to sell stock at the losses I would have to take to pick up new books. 
 

ergo, books over $10 k have been adversely affected by the stock market. But this is just my opinion.

And that's just the market as a whole being down 20%.  Certain sectors -- energy, REITs, BDCs -- are still down double or triple that figure off of their highs.  Given the choice between comics or pouring every dollar I can into the highest quality names in those sectors while they're on sale, my money is going into stocks.  Especially since I agree with you -- we'll probably see the Dow in the 18s and 19s again before we see it back in the 29s.  Until a strong feeling of certainty is restored to the world, volatility is going to reign.  The funny books are just going to have to wait.

[Buzzetta]

8 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

Bringing this thread back full circle, the impact of coronavirus on the comic market is now devestatingly clear and much worse than any thought: Cons cancelled yes, but also new comics cancelled, LCS’s mothballed, comic movies delayed, and potentially more to come.  As predicted the real impact was from the virus not the stock market.

I think the biggest thing that will come out of this will be the expedition of the death of print media and the permanent increase in online shopping vs brick and mortar. 
 

I don’t think that Marvel is going to shut down.  I don’t think that DC is going to shut down.  I think that within a month Marvel comics is going to offer Amazing Spider-Man (2018) #43 via digital.  People who want to read their new comics are going to be forced to switch to digital.    Now, many are going to say they won’t do that... they will never do that.    Well I hate to break it to you but that is the only way you are going to get your books for the next few months.    Now the question is, when whatever percentage of people switch to digital for the next few months get used to reading their comics this way, how many are going to continue using that platform?  Some will never go back. 
 

Online shopping is definitely the only way to get things right now.  I guarantee you that there are people using online shopping now in ways they usually used brick and mortar.  I’ve placed two orders with Amazon Fresh in the last couple of weeks.  I never did that before.  I will probably continue to do so every now and then even once all of this ends.  I get very busy sometimes and it is a real chore to do food shopping when I have limited time.   
 

Last year the fed released the stats on online shipping and I believe it was that in April 2019 more people were shopping online than in a brick and mortar.  That’s when the table starting leaning toward online shopping.  Now the table has been flipped and some will never switch back. 

[the blob]

On ‎3‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 6:18 PM, dupont2005 said:

I’m ok with Liberian cruise lines going under. And I feel like airlines should have some sort of penalty for spending 96% of their cash over the last decade on stock buybacks and then needing half a trillion dollar bailout after what, three slow weeks? We can spend money while still being somewhat fiscally responsible. Like by buying stake in these airlines. You need a bailout, we will take controlling interest in your airline, fire the executive staff and replace them with five figure salary government employees, and see how that goes. 

fer sure. F the cruise lines. And F the airlines. Don't want them to all go under, of course, but...

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

I'd rather read physical drek than digital anything.

[theCapraAegagrus]

If I'm gonna partake in digital superhero media - I'm just gonna watch the films.

[lizards2]

3 minutes ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

If I'm gonna partake in digital superhero media - I'm just gonna watch the films.

Speaking of which, we just caught Black Panther a couple nights ago, against my better judgement.  We got a phone call at the 1.5 hour mark, and a serious discussion about whether to finish it or not.  With that much time invested, we decided to continue.  So 2.25 hours of our lives we won't get back.  The movie was about 1/2 hour of plot with an additional 2 hours of fluff.

[Mephisto]

9 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Speaking of which, we just caught Black Panther a couple nights ago, against my better judgement.  We got a phone call at the 1.5 hour mark, and a serious discussion about whether to finish it or not.  With that much time invested, we decided to continue.  So 2.25 hours of our lives we won't get back.  The movie was about 1/2 hour of plot with an additional 2 hours of fluff.

Yeah I didn’t like that one either. I had wanted to add a Black Panther painting to my collection after reading FF 1-125ish in the last few years...watching this movie killed my interest in that. I didn’t particularly like him and really didn’t like Michael B. Jordan at all. My fiancé probably liked it better but again she didn’t seem to care about either the main character or main villain. She was all about Shuri and M’Baku.

[theCapraAegagrus]

26 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Speaking of which, we just caught Black Panther a couple nights ago, against my better judgement.  We got a phone call at the 1.5 hour mark, and a serious discussion about whether to finish it or not.  With that much time invested, we decided to continue.  So 2.25 hours of our lives we won't get back.  The movie was about 1/2 hour of plot with an additional 2 hours of fluff.

I like Black Panther. It has its problems - from simply copying the same MCU origin trope of Iron Man/Cap, to very poor CGI at times, and a very 'meh' 3rd Act featuring a large army fight - but I think it's a relatively "good" movie.

That being said, I think I've only seen it 4 times. Once Twice in theaters, and then when I re-watched the entire MCU before both Infinity War and Endgame. It's not like The Dark Knight, Man of Steel, BvS, or the Avengers movies, where I can watch it every month or year.

Edited March 27, 2020 by theCapraAegagrus

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

51 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Speaking of which, we just caught Black Panther a couple nights ago, against my better judgement.  We got a phone call at the 1.5 hour mark, and a serious discussion about whether to finish it or not.  With that much time invested, we decided to continue.  So 2.25 hours of our lives we won't get back.  The movie was about 1/2 hour of plot with an additional 2 hours of fluff.

Truer words were never spoken

[fastballspecial]

50 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

1 hour ago, lizards2 said:

Speaking of which, we just caught Black Panther a couple nights ago, against my better judgement.  We got a phone call at the 1.5 hour mark, and a serious discussion about whether to finish it or not.  With that much time invested, we decided to continue.  So 2.25 hours of our lives we won't get back.  The movie was about 1/2 hour of plot with an additional 2 hours of fluff.

Truer words were never spoken

Strange. I saw BP in a movie theater at 10:30 AM on a Monday while my car was getting serviced. The movie theater was almost packed. Ive never seen that before.
Not saying it was an Oscar film, but it was very well done. I was happy to see Wakanda done right.