Coronavirus's impact on the worldwide box office 3 3

[Bosco685]

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HDF Kino, Germany’s largest cinema association, has called for a reduction to the 1.5M social distancing measures in cinemas to ensure that exhibitors “survive” the Covid crisis.

 

The organization, which has 620 members who account for more than 3,200 cinema screens across Germany, has made the call in light of a new study by the Hermann Rietschel Institute at the Technical University of Berlin, which claims that cinemas are safer than offices when it comes to airborne disease transmission. 

 

The HRI study compared the aerosol concentrations of two cinema halls of different sizes with an office space and says the lack of talking in cinemas and different ventilation systems make them a safer environment.

 

“During a cinema visit people are only exposed to a fraction of the possible aerosol quantities that can be compared to those in an office workplace,” says HDF Kino.

 

Referencing the study, the organization said: “Since there is generally no speaking during a visit to the cinema while conversations take place in everyday office life, the amount of aerosol inhaled in the cinema is just 0.3% compared to that in the office….The type of ventilation prevailing in cinemas is so-called source ventilation, in which the air usually flows in under the seating area, the used air heats up on the people and then rises. The air in the breathing area of these people is therefore significantly less aerosol-containing than with the same air change in a room with mixed ventilation, as is usual in office rooms.”

 

[paperheart]

‘A Quiet Place 2,’ ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Delayed Until 2021

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/a-quiet-place-2-top-gun-maverick-release-date-delay-1234709716/

stick a fork in 2020 at the BO, it's done

[Bosco685]

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AMC Entertainment Monday announced the results of a key debt swap as it nears the finish line of a financial revamp unveiled earlier this month that will help it stay viable through  spring. The plan will slash debt, bring in $300 million in fresh cash and defer some interest payments.

 

The financing just became even more urgent after Warner Bros. and Walt Disney late last week pulled planned summer release dates for, respectively, Mulan and Tenet, prompting the world’s largest theater chain to delay opening most U.S. locations to mid-late August.  AMC had planned to open July 30. Theaters have been shuttered since COVID-19 hit in March amid ongoing fear for the health of the industry and for AMC in particular, which has a heavy debt load.

 

AMC shares were trading down 1.50% on a mixed day for entertainment stocks.

 

The deal calls for four group of subordinated debt holders to exchange their notes at a discount. They’ll take a haircut on the swap but the new notes they’ll receive when the transaction closes – on the July 31 settlement date — will be second-lien. That’s a higher class of debt than subordinated and puts holders a step ahead in being able to recoup in the event of a bankruptcy. A large majority of subordinated debt holders agreed to the exchange, AMC said in an SEC filing. “On the Settlement Date, approximately $1.46 billion of New Second Lien Notes are expected to be issued,” it said. Debt will be reduced somewhere between $460 million and $630 million.

 

Subordinated debtholders who participate in the exchange are also injecting fresh cash into the company through AMC’s offering of $200 million in new first lien notes. AMC will issue bondholder Silver Lake $100 million of additional first lien notes – for a total of $300 million in funds.

 

As reported by Deadline, AMC’s subordinated noteholders have agreed to forgo cash interest until 2026, which will result in $25 million-$40 million of cash interest savings in the next four to six quarters, according to a person close to the company. And Silver Lake, which acquired $600 million in AMC debt in 2018, agreed to extend repayment on that from 2024 to 2026. The person close to the situation said that’s particularly beneficial to AMC because the interest rate is a low 2.95%.

 

[Bosco685]

AMC Theatres, Universal Collapsing Theatrical Window to 17 Days in Unprecedented Pact

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The studio will have the option of making any of its titles, as well as films from Focus Features, available premium VOD after just three weekends of play in cinemas.

In a stunning reversal, AMC Theatres has struck a historic agreement with Universal that will allow the studio's movies to be made available on premium video-on-demand after 17 days of play in cinemas, including three weekends, the two companies announced Tuesday.

 

The deal — which presently only covers AMC's U.S. locations — shatters the traditional theatrical window, a longstanding policy which has required studios to play their films on the big screen for nearly three months before making films available in the home. The unprecedented move on the part of a mega-exhibitor has far-reaching implications for the film business, particularly amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and theater closures and is a major coup for Universal.

 

AMC, the country and world's largest theater chain, is expected to share in the revenue from PVOD. The debt-laden company was particularly hit hard because of the pandemic, although recently found new institutional investors.

 

More than any other studio, Universal has pushed for years to shorten the window, but at each attempt, was threatened with a boycott by AMC and other exhibitors.

 

And in March, AMC CEO Adam Aron, in a sharp rebuke, said his company was going to boycott all Universal, a division of Comcast, titles after the studio said it was going to make Trolls World Tour  immediately available on PVOD and in any theaters that were left open. NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell has been an ardent advocate for the early home offering and revealed in a subsequent interview that Trolls made a huge $100 million in U.S. PVOD rentals.

 

Tuesday's announcement did not say what the price would be, but Trolls and other recent premium VOD titles cost $19.99 for a 48-hour window.

 

The PVOD policy was part of a multi-year agreement in which AMC agrees to play Universal films.

 

The agreement includes at least three weekends of theatrical exclusivity for all Universal Pictures and Focus Features theatrical releases, at which time the studio will have the option to make its titles available across PVOD.

 

Universal said its traditional windows for electronic sell through and regular VOD remain unchanged.

 

In the coming weeks, the two companies will begin PVOD discussions regarding AMC locations overseas in Europe and the Middle East.

 

[media_junkie]

So it dropped from 90 days to 17, how long until theaters no longer matter?

[paperheart]

3 hours ago, media_junkie said:

So it dropped from 90 days to 17, how long until theaters no longer matter?

AMC bargaining from position of desperation, brink of bankruptcy

[Bosco685]

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Globally, attendance almost always increases year to year, and even domestically some years experience increases in attendance despite common misperceptions and hyperbolic claims by “sky is falling” prognosticators. Likewise, box office worldwide almost always increases year to year, and domestic box office is typically more likely to increase than decrease regardless of attendance figures — over the previous five years, box office was up for three of those years, and from 2009 to 2019 rises and falls in annual box office were equally split five to five.

 

Over the past 33 years, domestic box office didn't see any declines until 2005, then again in 2008 (a mere 0.3% drop), another drop in 2010 (again, a small one at just 0.2%), 2011, and then the two most recent down years in 2014 and 2017. That’s just six years in which box office dropped instead of rising, over a period of more than three decades, and a couple of those drops were so small as to barely register.

 

Over a long timeline, however, overall domestic attendance is indeed declining for several reasons. New generations simply prefer watching content at home or on mobile devices for the convenience; rising ticket prices cause regular theater attendees to reduce the number of films they see per year; and the sheer strength and quality and convenience of the rise of streaming options keeps more viewers at home where huge flat-screen TVs and surround-sound deliver theater-like experiences right in our living rooms (I have an excellent TCL 4K set with Dolby Vision, and a 4K UHD blu-ray player, for example).

 

No amount of disinfecting seats or other such measures to reduce overhead can overcome the long-term hurdle of a population that has endless content viewing options that are cheaper and more convenient than the theatrical experience. To compete, then, theaters must not only offer things that home theaters cannot provide — it may sound counter-intuitive, but theaters must also do the exact opposite and offer precisely what home theaters do provide.

 

Namely, subscription services to watch more content for lower prices. And that means subscriptions to movie theaters.

 

Monthly theater subscription options, including not just new releases but re-releases and monthly runs of classic films, is going to be an inevitable mainstay of theatrical attendance going forward, far more so than previous subscription-type theater services.

 

Smaller theaters complexes with less screens, where screens have less seating, mostly automated ticketing and concessions, and “subscriptions” to see multiple films per month for a single price, will allow theaters to compete better in the changed landscape ahead of us. The smaller spacing and automation help reduce overhead significantly, and theaters could regularly screen season-opener episodes of the most popular streaming shows to boost attendance and create further merger — literally and perceptually in the minds of viewers — of theatrical and home experiences.

 

I love theaters, so I am rooting for them to make the necessary moves to remain our pop culture houses of worship. With “no glasses necessary” 3D, VR, and other emerging technologies offering additional options for theaters in the coming decade, the theater industry has plenty of opportunities ahead if they can survive the pandemic — and prepare for the inevitable future ones — with a restructuring and a new vision that recognizes the needs and expectations of new generations of audiences.

 

[Bosco685]

 

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Disney continues to face financial woes in just about every part of its business, but one year after Avengers: Endgame came out, it’s clear just how much the pandemic has affected its studios division.

 

Disney didn’t release any major films last quarter, and the third quarter earnings report shows how much that impacted the company. Overall, revenue hit $11.78 billion, down from $20.2 billion the year before, but most of that came from streaming. Studio revenues decreased 55 percent in the quarter to $1.7 billion, the company announced. That means Disney made $1.7 billion this quarter, and $3.8 billion in the same time frame last year. What it shows is there’s a big Avengers: Endgame hole in the calendar, and it’s a perfect example of just how much of an impact the pandemic has had on one of Disney’s core businesses.

 

“Theatrical distribution in the quarter was negatively impacted by COVID-19 as theaters were generally closed domestically and internationally,” the report reads. “No significant titles were released in the current quarter compared to the release of Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin and Dark Phoenix in the prior-year quarter.”

 

Last year, revenue in the third quarter for Disney’s studios business saw $3.8 billion — an increase of 33 percent over the previous quarter. That’s an impressive sum, helped by Avengers: Endgame, the biggest movie in history. It’s even more impressive considering that Disney also saw substantial losses in its film division ($170 million in operating revenue) because of underwhelming 20th Century Fox movies, particularly Dark Phoenix. Even with those losses, Disney had enough blockbusters to bring in sizable revenue, leaving executives to pat each other on the back for a job well done.

 

Now, Disney’s theatrical arm is up in the air. Mulan was taken off the theatrical calendar, and questions are already being lobbed about what it means for Black Widow, which is due out on November 6th. What happens over the next several months is crucial. Could Disney release its biggest films of the year (Mulan and Black Widow) as a staggered release? Warner Bros. is exploring the staggered release route with Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, which will see the film premiere in 70 international territories on August 26th before being released in select cities in the United States on September 3rd. Could Mulan debut internationally before hitting US theaters?

 

Or could Disney use a combination of digital rentals and its booming streaming business in the interim until theaters can reopen safely and people can head back to the movies? It seems unlikely considering how much Mulan and Black Widow could make in theaters, but that was in the Before Times. Things might not be going great for the House of Mouse, but the company’s streaming division is continuing to grow at an incredible speed. Disney Plus now boasts 57.5 million subscribers. Disney’s streaming division also saw revenues increase two percent over the quarter to $4 billion. A lone bright spot for the company.

 

“Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, we’ve continued to build on the incredible success of Disney Plus as we grow our global direct-to-consumer businesses,” CEO Bob Chapek said in the earnings report. “The global reach of our full portfolio of direct-to-consumer services now exceeds an astounding 100 million paid subscriptions — a significant milestone and a reaffirmation of our DTC strategy, which we view as key to the future growth of our company.”

 

Disney Plus, Hulu, and even ESPN Plus all saw growth in the last quarter, but it was Disney Plus that continued to shine. Part of that comes from Hamilton landing on the streamer — a high-profile film that brought in a bunch of new subscribers for Disney Plus. While Disney is facing the same production woes as its competitors, the company can bring older titles to its platform until new shows — like The Mandalorian’s second season in October — debut.

 

Disney is already doing this; the company has turned boring licensing deals into a “Summer Movie Nights” festival, marking each week with an X-Men movie or the arrival of Pixar’s The Incredibles 2. While Disney owns Pixar and the X-Men franchise following its acquisition of 21st Century Fox, the films were tied up in previous licensing deals and unavailable until now. They’re not new films by any means, but the marketing makes it seem like Disney Plus has a couple of exciting new additions, and it may be enough to get some people to reengage with the platform or sign up.

 

The big question is whether Disney Plus and Hulu are enough to weather the storm. Disney’s parks and cruise sector faced total closures or limited reopenings in countries like China for the quarter, and similar to Comcast, Google, and Twitter, advertising revenue for networks like ESPN and ABC was down year over year.

 

Disney’s ability to quickly bounce back is far from a certainty. The company’s ad revenue in June alone fell 36 percent compared to 2019 due to the lack of sports, according to Variety. Its media networks division is hopeful things will get better with the return of sports, but that could go awry, too, if games are canceled. Disney reported its media division decreased 2 percent to $6.6 billion. Parks face a similar problem. The phased reopening seems to be going well for Disney so far, but cases in Florida and California continue to grow. Those parks could see shutdowns again if cases continue to climb. Parks revenues for the quarter decreased 85 percent, according to the report.

 

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

 

[D84]

That's a hard pass. The only movie I'd consider paying that much to rent would be Dune.

[Bosco685]

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News this week that Disney is bypassing cinemas by premiering Mulan directly onto Disney+ in major territories has provoked a furious backlash from international exhibitors who feel the House of Mouse is declining to support them in their hour of need.

 

Emotions are high – as evidenced in our piece speaking to UK operators yesterday when one called it a “ you to exhibitors” – and they were summed up somewhat aptly by a video that emerged today of a cinema owner in France destroying a piece of Mulan promotional artwork in reaction to the news.

 

 

After seeing the video and the chord it had struck among the cinema community on Twitter, I tracked down its subject, who turned out to be Gerard Lemoine, owner of indie venue Cinepal in Palaiseau, a suburb south of Paris.

 

“My video exceeds my expectations a little,” Lemoine told me. It has had more than 150K views on Twitter and counting, and received countless replies.

 

The cinema owner explained that he decided to make the vid to express his frustration after hearing about Disney’s decision. He said that he has been promoting Mulan “for months” and that he and his fellow operators had hoped the film would be a key title to boost their re-opening efforts.

 

Cinemas re-opened in France in June, and Lemoine admitted it has been an uphill battle since then to attract audiences, even in the famously cinema-hungry nation.

 

“It’s really a huge effort to stay open right now for most of us, but we were assuming there would be some ambitious movie releases in the coming weeks,” he said. “By losing Mulan, we lost the possibility of offering our audiences a long-awaited film that would have helped us after these past hard weeks. It is also a bad message to send to the public [who had been expecting a theatrical release].”

 

[Bosco685]

But will be pay the $30 to see it on Disney+? 

[D84]

14 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

But will be pay the $30 to see it on Disney+? 

Probably not, I really think $20 is the ceiling for at home rentals.

At least, while the economy sucks like it does right now.

Edited August 6, 2020 by D84

[Bosco685]

1 hour ago, D84 said:

Probably not, I really think $20 is the ceiling for at home rentals.

At least, while the economy sucks like it does right now.

I have to agree. I get where Disney logic came together with a $30 charge - partly.

Theaters:

• Average Family Size: 4
• Average ticket price: $9.11 (not even accounted for online convenience fees of $3-$5)
• Total theater cost: $36.44
• Disney Domestic take: $18.22

So if they charge less than the average ticket total ($29.99) Disney still takes in a larger portion than what it would land with theater releases. Yet they are charging more than the average domestic take it would bring in instead of $20 which even then would be $1.78 more than it would take in otherwise from theaters.

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

 

 

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[paperheart]

some actual #'s:

Though comps are difficult to digest at this point, worldwide box office through August 8 had hit $6.55B, off 74% from an average of last three years, according to Gower Street Analytics. The international box office portion (including China) is an estimated $4.7B so far in 2020, down $13.5B versus last year (again, ahead of this weekend).