GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Yorick]

19 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

PIC please

I don't want to draw attention to this artist as there are now a few more pieces up for auction. 

[Joshua33]

I don't know if proclaiming there is a comic crisis, because of a virus forcing a market correction is sound logic. Claiming that you have a crystal ball, and you know what the market is going to do now is dangerous. What does the Dow have to do with comics? Don't you think the market will go back up and normalize in the next couple months?

The fear mongering by the media about Coronavirus is insane to me. Its beyond politicized at this point. Out of the 155,000 cases recorded, already 74,000 have recovered. Only 5,000 have died, and meanwhile, Influenza kills 61,000 people a year just in the US, and H1N1 killed an estimated 500,000 worldwide in 2009. This little bug is nowhere near the killer the other two were.

You know it's a false panic when stocks tumble, but gold and silver don't move up in the midst of it.

[nearmint]

6 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Given this world event I hope humanity has learned that Mother Nature is queen and that despite our different colors, upbringings and religious beliefs We are all in this together.

 

Except for in the toilet paper aisle.  That’s Thunderdome.

[Gotham Kid]

38 minutes ago, nearmint said:

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Given this world event I hope humanity has learned that Mother Nature is queen and that despite our different colors, upbringings and religious beliefs We are all in this together.

 

Except for in the toilet paper aisle.  That’s Thunderdome.

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I don't know if proclaiming there is a comic crisis, because of a virus forcing a market correction is sound logic. Claiming that you have a crystal ball, and you know what the market is going to do now is dangerous. What does the Dow have to do with comics? Don't you think the market will go back up and normalize in the next couple months?

The fear mongering by the media about Coronavirus is insane to me. Its beyond politicized at this point. Out of the 155,000 cases recorded, already 74,000 have recovered. Only 5,000 have died, and meanwhile, Influenza kills 61,000 people a year just in the US, and H1N1 killed an estimated 500,000 worldwide in 2009. This little bug is nowhere near the killer the other two were.

You know it's a false panic when stocks tumble, but gold and silver don't move up in the midst of it.

Joshua33:

Whether the panic has a basis in reality or fiction the panic itself is exists and unfortunately reality.

I can understand you frustration with the media, they certainly do not help such as companies like"Daliymail.com  etc.. They do however have a right to inform whether it is good or bad news.

There is a global crisis unlike any we have really encountered since The flu of the early 1900's that lasted  2/3 years or World War II which lasted 1939-1945 when a few counties tried to take over the world. This is a world crisis evidenced by the dire prediction of the German Leader earlier this week. This is a worldwide event in which Equity markets are interconnected..as evidenced by a decline of market value not just the USA stock market, but in every stock market around the world.

Stock markets tend, in my opinion, to act a forward predictor of economic outlook 6/12 months or more down the line. We are not anywhere near the bottom of this market.

This is not a comic book crisis or USA stock market crash, this is a  world wide financial market crash unfolding before out very eyes and to assume that our GA/SA comic book market would remain unaffected by these events is just not realistic.

I don't have a crystal ball here, we are at the beginning of long term financial decline with NO actual end in sight. I hope your crystal ball is correct, that the "little bug is where near the killer the other two were" and things will "normalize in a couple of months" but that seems to me to be the best possible outcome. I can can only reference the above prior events as a recovery time as or estimator as to when we will near full recovery of our economy. Recovery will help out GA/SA market to normalize.

 As true comic book collector for 60 years this year and member of this community, I feel talking about the "Fear' and exploring it...will destroy it. I remember a famous theme in the book "Dune"..FEAR IS THE MIND KILLER...let it pas thru you and you will see weak it really is.

That is why I posted this, which is on every collector/investor's mind as to what will happen tomorrow to each of  our GA/SA collections in terms of value and demand. We can only roll with punches but as a community as whole, not acting in a state of panic, core underlying GA comic book values will not crash...but adjust temporary down throughout this crisis.

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Joshua33]

49 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Joshua33:

Whether the panic has a basis in reality or fiction the panic itself is exists and unfortunately reality.

I can understand you frustration with the media, they certainly do not help such as companies like"Daliymail.com  etc.. They do however have a right to inform whether it is good or bad news.

There is a global crisis unlike any we have really encountered since The flu of the early 1900's that lasted  2/3 years or World War II which lasted 1939-1945 when a few counties tried to take over the world. This is a world crisis evidenced by the dire prediction of the German Leader earlier this week. This is a worldwide event in which Equity markets are interconnected..as evidenced by a decline of market value not just the USA stock market, but in every stock market around the world.

Stock markets tend, in my opinion, to act a forward predictor of economic outlook 6/12 months or more down the line. We are not anywhere near the bottom of this market.

This is not a comic book crisis or USA stock market crash, this is a  world wide financial market crash unfolding before out very eyes and to assume that our GA/SA comic book market would remain unaffected by these events is just not realistic.

I don't have a crystal ball here, we are at the beginning of long term financial decline with NO actual end in sight. I hope your crystal ball is correct, that the "little bug is where near the killer the other two were" and things will "normalize in a couple of months" but that seems to me to be the best possible outcome. I can can only reference the above prior events as a recovery time as or estimator as to when we will near full recovery of our economy. Recovery will help out GA/SA market to normalize.

 As true comic book collector for 60 years this year and member of this community, I feel talking about the "Fear' and exploring it...will destroy it. I remember a famous theme in the book "Dune"..FEAR IS THE MIND KILLER...let it pas thru you and you will see weak it really is.

That is why I posted this, which is on every collector/investor's mind as to what will happen tomorrow to each of  our GA/SA collections in terms of value and demand. We can only roll with punches but as a community as whole, not acting in a state of panic, core underlying GA comic book values will not crash...but adjust temporary down throughout this crisis.

 

It all just seems a little too conveniently timed, especially when you factor where it came from. Meanwhile, the ultra wealthy were gobbling up blue chips at the end of the day in record fashion. Market shot up 5% in the last 10 minutes of the day. Apple rose nearly 13% in one day!!! I think any book that is somewhat commonplace has been experiencing decline since last year. Rare golden age is comparable to blue chips if you ask me. It's only my opinion, but if you have something that there is only 30 of, and someone wants to buy it from you, they still have to pay up for it. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Joshua33
Spell

[tpetty]

Hasn't affected my buying, but I was just going through some original art folders, trying to decide what to auction off (I've decided to start cutting back on some of what I collect), and then decided to put it all away.  Probably not the best time to be a seller if you don't need the money.

[KCOComics]

8 minutes ago, Joshua33 said:

It all just seems a little too conveniently timed, especially when you factor where it came from. Meanwhile, the ultra wealthy were gobbling up blue chips at the end of the day in record fashion. Market shot up 5% in the last 10 minutes of the day. Apple rose nearly 13% in one day!!! I think any book that is somewhat commonplace has been experiencing decline since last year. Rare golden age is comparable to blue chips if you ask me. It's only my opinion, but if you have something that there is only 30 of, and someone wants to buy it from you, they still have to pay up for it. 

In every example you outlined the comic market took a dip when the economy did. 

It sounds like you have a bone to pick with how information is being communicated, not the market crash itself. 

This is the nature of investing. Market corrections happen. The key is not to panic and be patient.

I don't really think of collecting comic books as investing, but it's the same deal. The market will rise, it will correct, then it will rise again.  

From an investor perspective, this won't be an easy recovery. Events are shut down, many people aren't working and no one is spending. That's bad news. On top of that the government is trying to stem the tide by spending when we already have record debt levels. That is also bad news. 

So regardless of if this is a media created conspiracy, the damage is real and it will impact collectibles at least in the short term. 

 

PS - if you want to understand if the panic is real, go to a hospital in Italy. That's why the United States needs to take these precautions now. 

[batman_fan]

Me and the misses just got home from having dinner at a local place (1914 House in Niwot, if you are in CO, definitely worth a trip).  Business is way down and lots of reservation cancellation. It is sad to see.  I don't plan to make drastic changes in how I operate as long as things stay about like how they are today.  The ONLY thing I will do differently is watch the stock market and make some selective buys over the next few months.

[Tri-Color Brian]

4 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I don't know if proclaiming there is a comic crisis, because of a virus forcing a market correction is sound logic. Claiming that you have a crystal ball, and you know what the market is going to do now is dangerous. What does the Dow have to do with comics? Don't you think the market will go back up and normalize in the next couple months?

The fear mongering by the media about Coronavirus is insane to me. Its beyond politicized at this point. Out of the 155,000 cases recorded, already 74,000 have recovered. Only 5,000 have died, and meanwhile, Influenza kills 61,000 people a year just in the US, and H1N1 killed an estimated 500,000 worldwide in 2009. This little bug is nowhere near the killer the other two were.

You know it's a false panic when stocks tumble, but gold and silver don't move up in the midst of it.

I have no idea what will happen with this virus in the U.S., but I don't even remember H1N1.  I have no idea what I was doing when that scare was going around.  I never get a flu shot, and I haven't had the flu in 15 years.  But, that's just me.  In other news, I just went to Walgreens and used their hand sanitizer on the pharmacy counter while waiting to be helped.  3 minutes later the hand sanitizer bottle was gone from the counter.  Somebody stole it...  Unbelievable. 

[Joshua33]

1 hour ago, KCOComics said:

In every example you outlined the comic market took a dip when the economy did. 

It sounds like you have a bone to pick with how information is being communicated, not the market crash itself. 

This is the nature of investing. Market corrections happen. The key is not to panic and be patient.

I don't really think of collecting comic books as investing, but it's the same deal. The market will rise, it will correct, then it will rise again.  

From an investor perspective, this won't be an easy recovery. Events are shut down, many people aren't working and no one is spending. That's bad news. On top of that the government is trying to stem the tide by spending when we already have record debt levels. That is also bad news. 

So regardless of if this is a media created conspiracy, the damage is real and it will impact collectibles at least in the short term. 

 

PS - if you want to understand if the panic is real, go to a hospital in Italy. That's why the United States needs to take these precautions now. 

I agree there is no reason to panic. What I'm saying is if in 2 months, great containment efforts and warmer weather put Corona in the rear view, then all travel industries and agencies go back to normal... it stands to reason that the market will stabilize somewhere around the 25k range (guess). If that's the case, 15% off of a record high in an election year is a totally normal number, especially considering how hyper inflationary the market was to begin with. I'm sorry, I just don't even see that as a recession. 2014-2018 had no dips in comic values. They were on a meteoric rise the entire time. Look at historic gpa data for those 4 years. 

If this virus spreads like wildfire, sure it's an issue, and will continue to make the market suffer (uncertainty always does). I just don't see that happening. I have no crystal ball, just my opinion. I just always find it strange when people tell everyone EXACTLY what's going to happen over the next year, and advise them to do different things, based on their opinion. 

[Casablanca]

I wiped the dust off my copy of "The Stand" , gave up re-reading it after the first 50 pages. 

I do like the containment efforts focused on now. Shutting things down for a bit, is the way to go for containment. The panic buying is not unexpected of certain "essential things"..(I mean people know they can shower after #2 if toilet paper is not available right?)

The exceptionally wealthy know how to make money and they most certainly will with this. I know i have certainly loss money in the market, but hopefully lessons learned from prior corrections will position me to mitigate losses this time around.

Comics for me were never an investment, but because of my exceptional taste, turns out i do have some valuable comics. At this time though, its on the backburner of priorities. If i do see a crazy deal on a book on my radar, i would pull the trigger. Same as i would in not so critical times.

[Joshua33]

38 minutes ago, Casablanca said:

I wiped the dust off my copy of "The Stand" , gave up re-reading it after the first 50 pages. 

I do like the containment efforts focused on now. Shutting things down for a bit, is the way to go for containment. The panic buying is not unexpected of certain "essential things"..(I mean people know they can shower after #2 if toilet paper is not available right?)

The exceptionally wealthy know how to make money and they most certainly will with this. I know i have certainly loss money in the market, but hopefully lessons learned from prior corrections will position me to mitigate losses this time around.

Comics for me were never an investment, but because of my exceptional taste, turns out i do have some valuable comics. At this time though, its on the backburner of priorities. If i do see a crazy deal on a book on my radar, i would pull the trigger. Same as i would in not so critical times.

I'm with you. I'd love to see some panic sales on GGA, Pre Code and early Superhero comics. I'm a buyer. Let's get em fired up guys. I'll hold my breath... something tells me I'll be the blue guy.

[jimbo_7071]

18 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I don't know if proclaiming there is a comic crisis, because of a virus forcing a market correction is sound logic. Claiming that you have a crystal ball, and you know what the market is going to do now is dangerous. What does the Dow have to do with comics? Don't you think the market will go back up and normalize in the next couple months?

The fear mongering by the media about Coronavirus is insane to me. Its beyond politicized at this point. Out of the 155,000 cases recorded, already 74,000 have recovered. Only 5,000 have died, and meanwhile, Influenza kills 61,000 people a year just in the US, and H1N1 killed an estimated 500,000 worldwide in 2009. This little bug is nowhere near the killer the other two were.

You know it's a false panic when stocks tumble, but gold and silver don't move up in the midst of it.

It seemed like prices were softening a little before the virus hit. My guess is that we'll see a bottom in 2021/2022, and then prices will start to climb. I buy at all times. The selection is better when prices are high. I don't expect to pick up any of my grails in high grade during the soft market, at least not right away; people will sell their riff-raff first.

[Mmehdy]

14 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I agree there is no reason to panic. What I'm saying is if in 2 months, great containment efforts and warmer weather put Corona in the rear view, then all travel industries and agencies go back to normal... it stands to reason that the market will stabilize somewhere around the 25k range (guess). If that's the case, 15% off of a record high in an election year is a totally normal number, especially considering how hyper inflationary the market was to begin with. I'm sorry, I just don't even see that as a recession. 2014-2018 had no dips in comic values. They were on a meteoric rise the entire time. Look at historic gpa data for those 4 years. 

If this virus spreads like wildfire, sure it's an issue, and will continue to make the market suffer (uncertainty always does). I just don't see that happening. I have no crystal ball, just my opinion. I just always find it strange when people tell everyone EXACTLY what's going to happen over the next year, and advise them to do different things, based on their opinion. 

I just have to disagree with your premise that in 2 months the virus will be in the rear view mirror. The summer should slow it down...but if it is like any other virus it is going to come roaring back in the winter. Until there is a vaccine there is no end in sight. A interesting news story appeared today in which a gentlemen who got the virus and beat it with tow test confirmations  and was declared virus free...got it again...very troubling unless its a freak case. There might be no reason to panic but in reality no one can predict where we are headed this time.

 It is not the virus itself that we should really fear, its the collateral damage it inflicts which makes vulnerable countries subject to depression, for example chinas 10 year government jacked up real estate market which the government has supported. If that was to collapse then it like dominos for everybody else. My hedge fund friend is killing it in the market...remember they hedge. His estimation is 14,000-145000 as bottom which make it similar to 2009's 56% drop. That would be very bad for everybody and GA comic book values will not be immune.

Even if we have a vaccine...good luck distributing and making it for billions of people in two months....I am hoping this mess ends and a recovery happens within 12 months.

GA comic book values will decline sharply if you have to sell while we are in the middle of this crisis. GPA data means nothing because of the unique nature of this virus and crisis How does diamond deliver new material to comic book stores which cannot open as well as comic book conventions and attendance at auctions for anytime of collectable not just GA/SA. I do agree however, that after we get used to a change of lifestyle that panic should be reduced.I guess we are gonna have to get used to the fact they we are all gonna get it and life goes on.

On your comment regarding people saying what is gonna happen and advising them to do different things...I think you have to separate facts from opinion. The hard part is agreeing on the facts...LOL We are in a panic with no end in sight, if we get a vaccine then we will have an end in sight..but then a time issue  arises of making and distributing it to the entire world. Plain and simple it is just gonna take time and  my  estimate of 12 months of restoration of value to worldwide stock market price is based upon prior models and is quite conservative. 

 My point of this thread was to provide some guidance as to how to navigate you GA/SA comic book collection whether you are buying, selling, or consigning during this crisis. I hope, based upon your comments, mixed messages. So as to clarify as to what I feel would be the best way to survive and continue to be a true comic book collector lets not forget the past.

1-GA/SA collecto/investor who is in for the long run-the only thing that counts is the day you bought it and the day you sell it. Long run I feel good about top quality GA/SA and if you can afford to hold it that might be the best way to go here..any opinions?

2-GA/SA collector who needs to sell part of his collection to pay bills or support family. Comic conventions are out, same with comic book stores, I would probably go thru an auction house who has a international presence such as to get the most people aware of the book.Otherwise you might be able to secure a loan from a comic book dealer if some enterprising dealer might think of a new way to help collectors etc..What do you think...any ideas?

3-GA/SA needs to sell entire collection.....any ideas?

 I remind you that Japan in early August of 1945  they had two A bombs dropped, Fire bombing from B-52's and the Russians  declared war and finally attacked the Japanse all in the same month. Look at the recoverey....look at what there people had to overcome...pretty amazing . We will win...in the long run... we are not gonna lose 75 MILLION people to genocide, disease, starvation, and mass bombings like WW2. We will beat this thing and comeback even stronger.

 

[Joshua33]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It seemed like prices were softening a little before the virus hit. My guess is that we'll see a bottom in 2021/2022, and then prices will start to climb. I buy at all times. The selection is better when prices are high. I don't expect to pick up any of my grails in high grade during the soft market, at least not right away; people will sell their riff-raff first.

Yes, prices were already softening on a lot of books last year. People are always willing to sell what others are willing to pay for. 

[jimbo_7071]

23 minutes ago, Joshua33 said:

Yes, prices were already softening on a lot of books last year. People are always willing to sell what others are willing to pay for. 

People might still be willing to sell their good stuff for 2018 prices, but you won't see much top-notch material in the no-reserve auctions. People won't risk offering it that way unless they have to.

[Joshua33]

17 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

I just have to disagree with your premise that in 2 months the virus will be in the rear view mirror. The summer should slow it down...but if it is like any other virus it is going to come roaring back in the winter. Until there is a vaccine there is no end in sight. A interesting news story appeared today in which a gentlemen who got the virus and beat it with tow test confirmations  and was declared virus free...got it again...very troubling unless its a freak case. There might be no reason to panic but in reality no one can predict where we are headed this time.

 It is not the virus itself that we should really fear, its the collateral damage it inflicts which makes vulnerable countries subject to depression, for example chinas 10 year government jacked up real estate market which the government has supported. If that was to collapse then it like dominos for everybody else. My hedge fund friend is killing it in the market...remember they hedge. His estimation is 14,000-145000 as bottom which make it similar to 2009's 56% drop. That would be very bad for everybody and GA comic book values will not be immune.

Even if we have a vaccine...good luck distributing and making it for billions of people in two months....I am hoping this mess ends and a recovery happens within 12 months.

GA comic book values will decline sharply if you have to sell while we are in the middle of this crisis. GPA data means nothing because of the unique nature of this virus and crisis How does diamond deliver new material to comic book stores which cannot open as well as comic book conventions and attendance at auctions for anytime of collectable not just GA/SA. I do agree however, that after we get used to a change of lifestyle that panic should be reduced.I guess we are gonna have to get used to the fact they we are all gonna get it and life goes on.

On your comment regarding people saying what is gonna happen and advising them to do different things...I think you have to separate facts from opinion. The hard part is agreeing on the facts...LOL We are in a panic with no end in sight, if we get a vaccine then we will have an end in sight..but then a time issue  arises of making and distributing it to the entire world. Plain and simple it is just gonna take time and  my  estimate of 12 months of restoration of value to worldwide stock market price is based upon prior models and is quite conservative. 

 My point of this thread was to provide some guidance as to how to navigate you GA/SA comic book collection whether you are buying, selling, or consigning during this crisis. I hope, based upon your comments, mixed messages. So as to clarify as to what I feel would be the best way to survive and continue to be a true comic book collector lets not forget the past.

1-GA/SA collecto/investor who is in for the long run-the only thing that counts is the day you bought it and the day you sell it. Long run I feel good about top quality GA/SA and if you can afford to hold it that might be the best way to go here..any opinions?

2-GA/SA collector who needs to sell part of his collection to pay bills or support family. Comic conventions are out, same with comic book stores, I would probably go thru an auction house who has a international presence such as to get the most people aware of the book.Otherwise you might be able to secure a loan from a comic book dealer if some enterprising dealer might think of a new way to help collectors etc..What do you think...any ideas?

3-GA/SA needs to sell entire collection.....any ideas?

 I remind you that Japan in early August of 1945  they had two A bombs dropped, Fire bombing from B-52's and the Russians  declared war and finally attacked the Japanse all in the same month. Look at the recoverey....look at what there people had to overcome...pretty amazing . We will win...in the long run... we are not gonna lose 75 MILLION people to genocide, disease, starvation, and mass bombings like WW2. We will beat this thing and comeback even stronger.

 

Again, you are stating so many opinions and predictions as fact. If you notice, all of my opinions use the word IF, because I don't know, or pretend to know the outcome. 

You are saying we are in a massive panic with no end in sight. That's simply not true. YOU are panicking, others are panicking, I'm not and neither are many others. I know multiple doctors who are in giggle mode over how panicky people are. They could be wrong too, but let's not watch Outbreak too many times, shall we?

Your hedge fund friend's prediction of market bottom is still his opinion. He is a professional that works in an industry and has his finger on the pulse, I get it. But, the majority of hedge fund guys get it wrong, too. It's just the nature of that business, or every one of them would be billionaires. He could be right, he might not.

All I'm saying is, unless somebody is paying you to give them financial advice, I wouldn't be putting myself out there, telling them how to spend their money. Especially on something as trivial as comic books. As a matter of fact, I'm more comfortable with my tangible assets than stocks right now by a country mile. 

The vaccine thing is a concern for sure. They need to locate patient zero. They could find it tomorrow, they could find it months from now, we don't know. If you cross reference this bug with H1N1, thus far it hasn't been as infectious. We are additionally taking far more precaution this time around.

To me, the height of the panic for this thing is RIGHT NOW, and I still see 10s of Thousands of dollars being spent in threads every day. I hope I'm not coming off as combative, I enjoy the healthy banter. You are more than welcome to sell me your GA books at a steep discount any time 

[GermanFan]

I dont think its Captain Trips but I do think its the trigger for Deglobalisation and huge market crashs with no alamo line anymore for the FED and ECB. What has the potential to kill more people: The virus itself or the full stop of the global economy because of the panic? War can be the result, see the 1930s. I think the virus is the game changer. It will create a new world. Its the big one. I know they cried wolf over and over, especially in Germany (German angst). And as a colleteral the "bubble of everything" will deflate.

[Joshua33]

14 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

People might still be willing to sell their good stuff for 2018 prices, but you won't see much top-notch material in the no-reserve auctions. People won't risk offering it that way unless they have to.

Couldn't agree more. Even looking at last weekend's sales on Ebay, I saw a couple record breakers while the market was in free fall, but they were BUY IT NOW, as opposed to auction style settings.