GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[fifties]

27 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

The same goes for the Economy both in the USA and world. We are extremely vulnerable at this time, the whole world is and if other governments collapse such as Greece or Italy it would be like a house of cards.

Uhh, you mean sorta like "The Domino Effect" theory that was floating around during our involvement in Vietnam?  I don't think so, not anymore then when it didn't happen then.  And AFA the collectible comic market taking a dip, doubt that as well.  Why?  Econ 101, supply and demand.  It used to be that there was a plethora of PCH available on eBay, that ran the gamut from common to "grail" types.  Additionally, I bought several slabbed PCH books, lower grade, from HA some years back for less than 50 bucks each.  None of this is prevalent today.  IMHO the SUPPLY just ain't there like it was before, and that would translate to higher prices, generally across the board.  I'm having to bid a lot more for books than in previous years, and I see no end to it.  If someone HAS to sell, do you really think that he's gonna give away his books?  Hell no, he's gonna hold out for the best prices he can get.  JMO.

[SuperBird]

I understand what you are saying, @Mmehdy, just reporting back on what I am currently seeing. The OA I follow is also hotter than ever. 

[Mmehdy]

41 minutes ago, SuperBird said:

I understand what you are saying, @Mmehdy, just reporting back on what I am currently seeing. The OA I follow is also hotter than ever. 

Different animal but I would use caution on the purchases as that market is easier to manipulate price wise by any number of OA dealers. With art to each is own, however what I said above applies, the real effect of this Virus has been felt yet and the OA market is not immune. IF the OA market loses two whales the price reduction could be staggering such as the pin up art market who lost one whale to death and other to bad economic decisions. The GA/SA comic book market is much bigger and can take the blow of some whales leaving. Good luck.

[Cat-Man_America]

The only sage advice I’d offer collectors contemplating bids in the current HA ...and, full disclosure, I’m watching books too... is to carefully examine the front and back cover scans provided.  Ignore the bold CGC grade and gauge condition on your own terms when grader opinions seem too generous.  Also, it looks to me like Heritage’s scans are still being juiced somewhat color-wise.  I mean, I’d love owning books with colors that pop like some of the books in these scans, but it’s best to temper your expectations.  If color accuracy is a deal breaker for you, caveat emptor.  All I can add is that when posting my own scans I strive to match images with what I’m seeing in hand, not wishful thinking.  BTW, I know I’m preaching to the choir here, but at least I’m observing proper social distancing!  

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

Uhh, you mean sorta like "The Domino Effect" theory that was floating around during our involvement in Vietnam?  I don't think so, not anymore then when it didn't happen then.  And AFA the collectible comic market taking a dip, doubt that as well.  Why?  Econ 101, supply and demand.  It used to be that there was a plethora of PCH available on eBay, that ran the gamut from common to "grail" types.  Additionally, I bought several slabbed PCH books, lower grade, from HA some years back for less than 50 bucks each.  None of this is prevalent today.  IMHO the SUPPLY just ain't there like it was before, and that would translate to higher prices, generally across the board.  I'm having to bid a lot more for books than in previous years, and I see no end to it.  If someone HAS to sell, do you really think that he's gonna give away his books?  Hell no, he's gonna hold out for the best prices he can get.  JMO.

I believe in any strong economic downturn both supply and demand will be decreased in every market not just GA/SA. . Less buyers and more sellers. I am not suggesting to anybody to "give away" their GA/SA collection but they can certainly make it better but cutting the fat and upgrading the collection by trading up either condition wise or selling restored and buying  unrestored CGC books. You having to bid "more" for books than in previous years is gonna change in the next 6 months for several years thereafter. I see a end to it...nothing goes up forever...not stocks, Bonds, GA/SA and we are due for a  above the board price correction even before the virus. Look for CGC unrestored books to command even greater price differential as buyers become more picker as time goes on.

 Holding out for the best price assumes that the person has a choice to sell when and where, there are gonna be some GA/SA collectors that have to sell...to pay rent, food, etc. Selling smartly however would be a better choice of words.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Mmehdy

[batman_fan]

3 hours ago, october said:

I had 20 or 25 books in the last Heritage weekly and overall I was very happy with the prices I got. A few went WAY higher than expectations. 

You mind saying what type of books they were?  GA mainline super hero?  PCH, etc?  High grade mid grade?

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, DavidTheDavid said:

CLink Featured is coming up, right? And a big Heritage auction, I think? Those might be good bell weathers. 

Well, the big CC Event Auction justed went live yesterday and is scheduled to close in a few weeks from now during the week of May 18th - 22nd.  

[batman_fan]

35 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, the big CC Event Auction justed went live yesterday and is scheduled to close in a few weeks from now during the week of May 18th - 22nd.  

Losing bids placed 

[DavidTheDavid]

4 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

There is a reason for that. When you get hit with a tidal wave such as this Virus which shuts down everything in its path, you, me and whole rest of the world are in shock. Until that shock wears off and reality sets in, GA/SA prices today do not reflect the full impact of this financial crisis. Folks, it is just gonna take time, like the virus we are on its schedule and have little control. The same goes for the Economy both in the USA and world. We are extremely vulnerable at this time, the whole world is and if other governments collapse such as Greece or Italy it would be like a house of cards. We need to find a cure and distribute it before anything else happens. Every board member will feel the full force and impact of what is coming in about  next 6 months if you have not felt it today. Unlike the stock market which is subject to flash crashes..we will have a gradual decline over time. I do not see any possibility of a overnight crash in our GA/SA world.Then we will see a gradual upswing which could take years to get back where we were.

This is what I'm speculating, too. If those auction results I captured are any indicator, there was a slight panic, then a rebound, but I think any significant, lasting drop will come over the next several months as the extent of the economic damage hits home and buyers exit the market.

[october]

3 hours ago, batman_fan said:

You mind saying what type of books they were?  GA mainline super hero?  PCH, etc?  High grade mid grade?

All over the map. Will post some in a minute. 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by october

[batman_fan]

Thanks a million for posting.  You were all over the map for what genre you had list but a good mix of stuff.  Glad it worked out for you.  I am trying to decide how to best move some stuff.

Edited April 29, 2020 by batman_fan

[october]

This was disappointing, among a few others:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/horror/menace-3-atlas-1953-cgc-fn-60-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122017-17245.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

 

These went for about what I thought they would:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/batman-122-dc-1959-cgc-vf-80-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122017-17113.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/action-comics-51-dc-1942-cgc-fn-60-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122017-17002.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/adventure/date-with-danger-5-standard-1952-cgc-vf-nm-90-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122017-17141.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/war/rangers-comics-26-rockford-pedigree-fiction-house-1945-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122017-17262.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

 

These went for more than I thought they would. . 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/humor/madhouse-v2-3-ajax-farrell-1957-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-pages/a/122017-17234.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/world-s-best-comics-1-dc-1941-cgc-qualified-vg-35-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122017-17393.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

Edited April 29, 2020 by october

[SuperBird]

4 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Different animal but I would use caution on the purchases as that market is easier to manipulate price wise by any number of OA dealers. With art to each is own, however what I said above applies, the real effect of this Virus has been felt yet and the OA market is not immune. IF the OA market loses two whales the price reduction could be staggering such as the pin up art market who lost one whale to death and other to bad economic decisions. The GA/SA comic book market is much bigger and can take the blow of some whales leaving. Good luck.

The stuff I watch is mostly new comic art, not stuff sought after by whales.  

[SuperBird]

24 minutes ago, october said:

 

These went for about what I thought they would:

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/action-comics-51-dc-1942-cgc-fn-60-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122017-17002.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

 

1140 for a 6.0 Action 51 seems high to me actually. 

[Mmehdy]

45 minutes ago, SuperBird said:

The stuff I watch is mostly new comic art, not stuff sought after by whales.  

It has the trickle down effect which in turn  also depresses lower price levels such as the pin up market as the decline in the Elvgren prices took down a number of lower  price pieces try as much as 85% or more. I would say original comic art under $100 bucks, who cares enjoy and you can always donate it and no big deal. Tying up 50K in a 1970;s or 1980's marvel cover in another thing. The dollar amount turns it into a collectable/investment all in one. It is far safer today to buy nice GA as there are a number of resources which you can track current market value including HA and CC archives, GPA and the default of 50 Overstreet price guides to track value historically. It seems in these times, if you are lucky to have non-essential funds to spend you must be very careful on  both the purchase and sale side.

 As far as buying...good deals are out there with or without any virus or economic collapse. But I predict, there will be many more for those who look hardest. I would be very picky unless its a grail book, you MUST  set a minimum standard regarding page quality ,markings on the cover, staple condition, level of restoration if any, and cover brightness( avoid any type of fading cover). Set your buying standard and stick to it, there will be a lot of material out there and you should be picky as to buying what you need. Do not let the price dominate you to the point where you vary you standards, as the very the price you think is a steal, declining prices could put much better material at the price level that you considered a steal in the near future for much better material. Really, there are no steals unless it pennies on the dollar, Like how Mile High comics buys at say 5 cents on the dollar a lot of time. Again, unless you are sitting on a pot of gold do not let  greed temp you to buy material because its cheap. Buy what you collect and have always wanted and you will be fine, and buy with attitude that you are gonna keep it a very long time, and buy with you heart and not your calculating head.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

9 hours ago, SuperBird said:

From my limited perspective, I haven't seen much of a dip in GA prices on things I watch. 

There is a reason for that. When you get hit with a tidal wave such as this Virus which shuts down everything in its path, you, me and whole rest of the world are in shock. Until that shock wears off and reality sets in, GA/SA prices today do not reflect the full impact of this financial crisis.

Just maybe the shock is already over since the CL Auction that closed last month apparently had some softer than usal prices, but the one for this month is running along as per pretty much normal.  At least that seems to be the sentiment of the board members here based upon what I have been reading here.  

 

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

 It seems in these times, if you are lucky to have non-essential funds to spend you must be very careful on  both the purchase and sale side.

 As far as buying...good deals are out there with or without any virus or economic collapse. 

Based upon another thread which I was reading on the boards here, it sounds as though most people do indeed have extra non-essential funds to spend right now with the stimulus checks that the government is issuing to ALL of its citizens, whether they need it or NOT as long as you are making less than $75K a year.  I guess that would exclude you then, Mitch.  

Sounds as though some of these people that are receiving these unexpected bonus cheques for thousands of dollars are throwing some of it back into the funny books since they don't need the money and they really can't take it out to spend anywhere else during a lockdown.  So, I would assume there is a lot of free money available for people to throw at things which they enjoy, and the collapse will come later when they run out of this money.  Unless there's a second and third round of stimulus money which just might not be out of the question?    

Boy, sounds pretty much like a socialist giveaway benefit for all lucky citizens living in a so-call capitalistic free market world.  Now, that's definitely what I would call having the best of both worlds.  

[Mmehdy]

13 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Just maybe the shock is already over since the CL Auction that closed last month apparently had some softer than usal prices, but the one for this month is running along as per pretty much normal.  At least that seems to be the sentiment of the board members here based upon what I have been reading here.  

 

Based upon another thread which I was reading on the boards here, it sounds as though most people do indeed have extra non-essential funds to spend right now with the stimulus checks that the government is issuing to ALL of its citizens, whether they need it or NOT as long as you are making less than $75K a year.  I guess that would exclude you then, Mitch.  

Sounds as though some of these people that are receiving these unexpected bonus cheques for thousands of dollars are throwing some of it back into the funny books since they don't need the money and they really can't take it out to spend anywhere else during a lockdown.  So, I would assume there is a lot of free money available for people to throw at things which they enjoy, and the collapse will come later when they run out of this money.  Unless there's a second and third round of stimulus money which just might not be out of the question?    

Boy, sounds pretty much like a socialist giveaway benefit for all lucky citizens living in a so-call capitalistic free market world.  Now, that's definitely what I would call having the best of both worlds.  

I agree with you Lou and a second check will probably be sent out and possible a third. But the persons who are buying today and risking today are gambling that this thing is gonna be over quickly. That is not in the cards here as GA/SA prices will have to contend with this virus and its effects for the next 12-18 months minimum. Socialist or not , I believe these checks need to be given out, whether its more GA for your collection or food on your table. But Lou, over time those funds are gonna run out whether its $1200 or $12,000 too and additional Checks and works programs are gonna be needed to help those in need.

 At some point, when the giveaways are over we are gonna face a new issue and that is payback, there is no such thing as a free lunch as my grandfather used to say. Economic stability is essential for GA/SA  consistent price growth over time. It is gonna a while before we ever achieve that, and my best guess is 3 years and then the road up again on GA/SA prices which should take another two years or so. What that means, Lou is if you buy any GA/SA TODAY you had better be able to hold for a minimum of 3 years and probably 5 years to see any light at the end of the tunnel. We a looking at a inflation monster coming down the road. but that is another issue, another fight, and another reality. Just be especially careful in your current GA/SA purchases from this point forward, that is all I am saying and be picky...buy but buy quality not quantity .that's the spirit.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

On 4/25/2020 at 2:38 PM, lou_fine said:

Mitch;

Greatly appreciate your thoughtful response to my post here.  

As a word of advice though, maybe you should go back into your post and edit out my quote to the form of a simple reply.  Especially if you want to avoid getting a spanking in the form of a warning from the Mods once they get back into the office or if a boardie with no sense of humor gets personally offended and decides to flag this post out to them.  

After all, I wouldn't want you to get into any trouble because of my post since I have already gotten enough warnings on similar posts like these that I am due to be booted off the boards sooner rather than later.  

Hey Mitch;

Well done and it looks like you edited out my post just in time too:  

On 4/25/2020 at 1:50 PM, Mmehdy said:

On 4/25/2020 at 1:26 PM, lou_fine said:

Mitch;

 

 

 

Lou Let me respond to you and your interesting comments.

Actually, maybe my post here was okay in the end, although I did get another warning this morning on another post I had made this past weekend.  

Looks like I was in a thread talking about receiving items in the mail and I made the sacrilegious error of mentioning a product to disinfect them before opening, which apparently cannot be mentioned on these boards here anymore (sounds a bit like Lie Sol  or something like that) and how its now apparently all the rage since a certain day last week which I apparently also cannot mention here anymore (but I believe might fall between Mercredi and Vendredi ).   

So Mitch, be warned that it's always best not to quote me since it's   to attempt any type of humor on these boards here.  

Edited April 29, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, october said:

These went for more than I thought they would. . 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/humor/madhouse-v2-3-ajax-farrell-1957-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-pages/a/122017-17234.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

Well, you certainly did well with this one here since it went for $720 or something like just over 15X condition guide:

Even though it was the LOWEST graded copy according to the CGC census population report.  

Well, okay........also the highest graded copy since it's the only copy that's been graded to date so far.  

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

It is gonna a while before we ever achieve that, and my best guess is 3 years and then the road up again on GA/SA prices which should take another two years or so. What that means, Lou is if you buy any GA/SA TODAY you had better be able to hold for a minimum of 3 years and probably 5 years to see any light at the end of the tunnel.

Mitch;

Based upon current events, I believe phrases such as "light at the end of the tunnel" might no longer be allowed on the boards here as it's just too P O L I T I C A L.  

Seriously though, 3 to 5 years is not a problem at all as I am definitely not a flipper looking to play the CPR game since I've had all of my GA books for multi decades now.  In fact, all of those BA and CA books which I used to cherry picked off the shelves of the LCS way back in the day are still sitting there block style "rotting away" in those old smelly poly bags.   

So, holding onto any purchases for a 3 to 5 year time period is definitely not a problem at all.  Although I probably really need to check with HA since they had to hold my most recent orders for more than a 3-year time period since I never got around to sending them my shipping instructions.  Then I never got around to opening it for another 2+ years after I received it since the big box made a perfect side table in my basement living room.  Surprisingly, all of the books (none with any real value of course, unlike the Berk books) were in there with none missing at all.      

Edited April 29, 2020 by lou_fine