ASM 300 heating up 8 8

[Hollywood1892]

On 3/8/2021 at 9:14 PM, Roger66 said:

 Well said.   For me when you are spending potentially a ton of money on comics, I consider the long term viability of said investment.  When you consider & compare the overall population of comics from the Silver Age to the Copper Age it is likely 1000 to 1 in favor of Copper Age with a LOT less in the top grading tier in Silver (just hazarding a guess).  However if you get no excitement whatsoever from a Hulk1 vs some late Bronze or Copper age gems - than you must go with your heart . When comics were cheaper this discussion was academic - however nowadays you need a 2nd mortgage to make an impact into your favorite group of keys so I still say invest wisely.  My 2-cents. 

Venom is an extremely popular character, and the book defies supply and demand (accurately so)

Outside of your mainstays i.e Spidey,Hulk,Avengers he is one of the most popular characters around. He was created as a villain and turned into a super/anti hero because of said popularity

In the past 40 yrs there are 3 characters that posses this type of popularity and drive the comic book market

Wolverine 

Venom

Punisher 

And two of those three first appearances are worth 20k+ in 9.8 and good luck getting a 9.8 IH 181 for under 60k.

If ASM 300 had the amount of 9.8s that IH 181 and ASM 129 did then we would easily be talking about a book in 20k + range. As I stated earlier that supply and demand are irrelevant for this book, I quote Adam Smith in describing its worth "The true value of something is how much someone is prepared to pay for it"

 

[jjonahjameson11]

 

By the way, there are more asm 238 cgc 9.8 than ASM 300 cgc 9.8 currently available on ebay

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

 

By the way, there are more asm 238 cgc 9.8 than ASM 300 cgc 9.8 currently available on ebay

Which means that if you want one for your collection, you better grab it now since once these are gone, there'll be far fewer left as the population count for Spidey 238 in CGC 9.8 is running at only about 40% of the population count for Spidey 300.    

[jjonahjameson11]

15 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Which means that if you want one for your collection, you better grab it now since once these are gone, there'll be far fewer left as the population count for Spidey 238 in CGC 9.8 is running at only about 40% of the population count for Spidey 300.    

What it actually means is:

1.  There is price resistance for ASM 238 in 9.8 for universal direct, given the number of copies available at this price (and higher) 

2.  Given the lack of availability of ASM 300 in 9.8 for universal direct, it indicates that selling are holding back their copies, for fear of missing out on values higher than $5K per copy.  They are waiting for results of the next auction sale to determine if it’s worthwhile to sell or hold

[Hollywood1892]

3 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

What it actually means is:

1.  There is price resistance for ASM 238 in 9.8 for universal direct, given the number of copies available at this price (and higher) 

2.  Given the lack of availability of ASM 300 in 9.8 for universal direct, it indicates that selling are holding back their copies, for fear of missing out on values higher than $5K per copy.  They are waiting for results of the next auction sale to determine if it’s worthwhile to sell or hold

I'm thinking of holding for awhile....like maybe ten years

[Jesse-Lee]

11 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

 

By the way, there are more asm 238 cgc 9.8 than ASM 300 cgc 9.8 currently available on ebay

This is important to consider. I've said as much before, but people shouldn't use the overall number of graded copies in the census as their ultimate definition of supply, it should be the number of graded copies that are available to purchase in a given time-frame.

[Lazyboy]

2 hours ago, Jesse-Lee said:

This is important to consider. I've said as much before, but people shouldn't use the overall number of graded copies in the census as their ultimate definition of supply, it should be the number of graded copies that are available to purchase in a given time-frame.

Everything should be considered. It is insane to think that something doesn't exist just because you can't see it right now. Unless you absolutely need () something immediately, what is currently available doesn't matter that much. Especially in a market full of ridiculous speculation.

[Jesse-Lee]

10 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

Everything should be considered. It is insane to think that something doesn't exist just because you can't see it right now. Unless you absolutely need () something immediately, what is currently available doesn't matter that much. Especially in a market full of ridiculous speculation.

I think you're missing my point - of course those copies in the census exist, but just because 1,377 of something exists (copies of 9.8 ASM 300 for example) doesn't mean that 1,377 are available to purchase. Right now there are only 9 or 10 9.8s available on eBay. I don't know how many are on other sites/stores to purchase, but for sake of argument and a round number, let's pretend that 100 ASM 300 9.8s are available to purchase on the open market currently.

If 150 people want that book, and the other 1,277 aren't available for purchase, then the effective supply is 100 regardless of what the existent supply is, and the price is going to reflect that.

Of course you can say that you're guessing or betting that the other holders won't or will sell at some point, but like you said, it's all speculation and it's what drives the price. When this book started to climb, more sellers were interested in cashing out and the supply met demand in the moment, and prices leveled or dipped. Then supply went back down because people didn't want to sell low, and now prices have started back up a bit. It's all cyclical like any other speculation game.

I think what's currently available matters a lot. If every single copy of this book (or really any physical commodity people speculate on) was suddenly for sale tomorrow all at the same time, prices would almost certainly crash. But the likelihood of that happening is obviously very low, and I think many of us speculate that as more people become interested in this book - especially people who buy to hold and who take copies off the open market - the price will continue to rise in the future as effective supply continues to fail to meet the overall demand.

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Which means that if you want one for your collection, you better grab it now since once these are gone, there'll be far fewer left as the population count for Spidey 238 in CGC 9.8 is running at only about 40% of the population count for Spidey 300.    

What it actually means is:

1.  There is price resistance for ASM 238 in 9.8 for universal direct, given the number of copies available at this price (and higher) 

2.  Given the lack of availability of ASM 300 in 9.8 for universal direct, it indicates that selling are holding back their copies, for fear of missing out on values higher than $5K per copy.  They are waiting for results of the next auction sale to determine if it’s worthwhile to sell or hold

Or the other possibility is that this $4K to $5k price range for Spidey 238 is something that is relatively new and owners of these books are throwing theirs into the ring hoping to try their luck at scooping up some of this dough.  

The Spidey 300, on the other hand, has been in this $5K price range for the past few months and buyers of these books might just need to hold onto them for a bit longer before they feel comfortable at throwing them back into the ring in hopes of making money on them.  

From my point of view, the Spidey 238 is simply joining the party a bit later, but hoping to follow in the footsteps of Spidey 300 and all good things come to those who are patient.    

[lou_fine]

43 minutes ago, Jesse-Lee said:

I think many of us speculate that as more people become interested in this book - especially people who buy to hold and who take copies off the open market

You do realize this is the CGC generation of collectors who usually buy not to hold, but instead buy mainly for the purposes of reselling at a higher price point.  

Not sure how many of today's buyers are truly long term collectors who buy these types of books with the intention of locking them away in their personal collection for years, let alone for decades like what the older generation of collectors did?    

Edited March 12, 2021 by lou_fine

[Jesse-Lee]

8 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

You do realize this is the CGC generation of collectors who usually buy not to hold, but instead buy mainly for the purposes of selling at a higher price.  

Not sure how many of today's buyers are truly long term collectors who buy these types of books with the intention of locking them away in their personal collection for years, let alone for decades like what the older generation of collectors did?    

Yeah, that's definitely a fair point - in my opinion it still fits into the model of effective supply and demand in the sense that some of the same books may just recirculate in the market and continue to force flat sales for awhile. I actually don't even own this book in a 9.8 (and I can go into a whole rant around why I don't typically buy 9.8s... ), but I'm one of the people who thinks this book as a mega key will continue to increase in the long run across most grades.

[lou_fine]

55 minutes ago, Jesse-Lee said:

I actually don't even own this book in a 9.8 (and I can go into a whole rant around why I don't typically buy 9.8s... ), but I'm one of the people who thinks this book as a mega key will continue to increase in the long run across most grades.

If this book is indeed going to be a true mega key as you think, it's actually NOT necessary to own this book in CGC 9.8.  As long as you own a copy in your personal collection, and preferably in high grade due to how recent it is, you should be good to go.  

As I have stated many times on these boards before, the sign of a true vintage collectible comic book is one that that has has monetary value in all grades across the entire condition spectrum.  Clearly in contrast to a graded collectible which has value only in the nosebleed HG's such as CGC 9.8 and CGC 9.9, and yet has no real worthwhile value in any condition below high grade.  

Edited March 12, 2021 by lou_fine

[Hollywood1892]

6 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Everything should be considered. It is insane to think that something doesn't exist just because you can't see it right now. Unless you absolutely need () something immediately, what is currently available doesn't matter that much. Especially in a market full of ridiculous speculation.

ASM 300 isn't spec tho, neither is ASM 238

[Hollywood1892]

4 hours ago, lou_fine said:

If this book is indeed going to be a true mega key as you think, it's actually NOT necessary to own this book in CGC 9.8.  As long as you own a copy in your personal collection, and preferably in high grade due to how recent it is, you should be good to go.  

As I have stated many times on these boards before, the sign of a true vintage collectible comic book is one that that has has monetary value in all grades across the entire condition spectrum.  Clearly in contrast to a graded collectible which has value only in the nosebleed HG's such as CGC 9.8 and CGC 9.9, and yet has no real worthwhile value in any condition below high grade.  

Totally agree, as you see it with books like Fantastic Four 5,48,49,52

And most of the Spidey Villains, especially the early ones up to ASM 15 and including 50, and that begs the question how valuable would the first appearance of Hobgoblin be if he didn't first appear in Spider-Man? Venom probably wouldn't be threatened by a first appearance somewhere else but I doubt the book would be as valuable either and to support my argument take Ironman 55 for example, super famous villain, but not super expensive for a 9.8, pretty much the same value window as ASM 300 9.8 

[Lazyboy]

27 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

ASM 300 isn't spec tho, neither is ASM 238

For the current prices, absolutely they are.

[ThothAmon]

238 and 309 have both been in demand books since they were published. For what it’s worth I had a standing ASM pull of 3 copies of 238 from my LCS (empire comics) at that time. I requested 100 ASM 300’s but was only able to get 50 put aside years later. 300 will continue to leave 238 in the dust but it has nothing to do with rarity. 

[Hollywood1892]

4 hours ago, ThothAmon said:

238 and 309 have both been in demand books since they were published. For what it’s worth I had a standing ASM pull of 3 copies of 238 from my LCS (empire comics) at that time. I requested 100 ASM 300’s but was only able to get 50 put aside years later. 300 will continue to leave 238 in the dust but it has nothing to do with rarity. 

Exactly 300 completely defies supply and demand. People buy Ferraris because they are Ferraris!

[Hollywood1892]

I really can't find any 300s 9.8s for sale anywhere, or sold for that matter

[jjonahjameson11]

2 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I really can't find any 300s 9.8s for sale anywhere, or sold for that matter

Yup, exactly what I mentioned a few days ago.

[Hollywood1892]

14 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Yup, exactly what I mentioned a few days ago.

The next phase of FMV is really gonna depend on those books selling you mentioned on Ebay