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Today's episode of CGC Board is brought to you by the letters U and F and the numbers 4 and 8,100
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Started by valiantman,

33 posts in this topic

valiantman

valiantman

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4 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:
9 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Both bids of $8,000 (and $8,100 or whatever the max bid would have been with $100 as the increment) occurred in the final minute of the auction.  It's interesting to think that the $8,000 bidder might have gone higher if there would have been time to do so.  An auction of one of these books through Heritage would be interesting to see, since they don't have an end time... they allow counterbids and give closing warnings as auctions extend.

I'm all 4 newsstand being priced different and receiving a premium. I also know that this book isn't particularly easy to find as a newsstand, but the book itself is incredibly inflated (right now) and this is the perfect timing of a sale. More copies will emerge and I doubt that the next copies will go beyond this initial offering. This book will come down.

If the sale is legit.

The modern market unfortunately is full of people who manipulate it to their benefit.

Seeing all the photos of Ultimate Fallout #4 in stacks of dozens (if not hundreds) of direct editions, it's pretty clear that we've got some major "inventory" in just a few hands with direct edition CGC 9.8 going for $1,000+. 

I don't think I've seen more than 4 or 5 newsstand editions in the same photo... and many "hoard" photos have zero.

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valiantman

valiantman

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2 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

does anyone know if the newsstand version was also polybagged?

 

The guy who bought the raw copy a few weeks ago ($960 for a raw 9.2 description) said he believes there's a polybag line/indention on the back that may press out.  That's the only evidence I've seen so far that the newsstand was once bagged.

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jsilverjanet

jsilverjanet

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7 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Seeing all the photos of Ultimate Fallout #4 in stacks of dozens (if not hundreds) of direct editions, it's pretty clear that we've got some major "inventory" in just a few hands with direct edition CGC 9.8 going for $1,000+. 

I don't think I've seen more than 4 or 5 newsstand editions in the same photo... and many "hoard" photos have zero.

it's quite possible. I'm not as well versed with the print runs during this time but I also think many people may have newsstand and not be aware of it (common mistake with modern barcodes - some being labeled newsstand and are not, others not being labeled etc).

Again for the rest of the thread, I do agree the newsstand is rare (for this book and during the time it was published), and if the polybag was present in the newsstand 9.8s will be a little harder to get (without some professional help - how many moderns are subbed without a professional/quality press). 

I think the book is worth significant money. I just don't think it can maintain or grow from this amount. Modern buyers are like the wind. This is the current flavor of the month. I'll eat a copy of UF4 if a newsstand is getting more than $8100 in a years time*

 

*due to dietary restrictions I will not eat an actual comic but maybe a cake that looks like the copy of UF4 newsstand variant

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valiantman

valiantman

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27 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

I think the book is worth significant money. I just don't think it can maintain or grow from this amount. Modern buyers are like the wind. This is the current flavor of the month. I'll eat a copy of UF4 if a newsstand is getting more than $8100 in a years time*

I continue to compare-and-contrast with books like Amazing Spider-Man #667 Dell'Otto, since that book has sold for $20,000, is also a Marvel Spider-man issue and is also from 2011.

When thinking about the future of both books, I tend to focus on the "underlying asset" --- that is... what is the book WITHOUT the "rare" cover on it?

Ultimate Fallout #4 is a valuable book in its regular edition, so there's a foundation upon which the 1:25 variant and newsstand editions are built... each being less plentiful than the direct edition.  The CGC 9.8 slabs of 1:25 variant and newsstand editions are about 3 to 25 times the value of a raw regular edition at this point.  A multiplier, to be sure, but a very small one, since the plain old regular edition contains the first appearance of a character with a major following.

Amazing Spider-Man #667 is not a valuable book in its regular edition, so the Dell'Otto variant --- as limited as it is --- is a many-many-multiplier to get from a $4 raw regular edition to a $20,000 variant slab.  That's $4 times 5,000.  Yes, Spider-Man has a major following, the flagship character of Marvel, but this is #667 and the regular edition is $4.  "First appearance of..." does not apply here.  Neither does "Origin of..." or "Death of..." or any hundred-million dollar movies and video games based on what's specific to ASM #667.

Deciding between just these two 2011 Marvel $8,000+ books, which would you think is more likely to wind up on your dinner plate in five years?

Edited by valiantman
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spidermanbeyond

spidermanbeyond

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News flash: ULTIMATE FALLOUT 4 CGC 9.8 DJURDEVIC VARIANT 1:25 MILES MORALES JUST SOLD FOR $9 K.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/ULTIMATE-FALLOUT-4-CGC-9-8-DJURDEVIC-VARIANT-1-25-MILES-MORALES-/233621193517?hash=item3664e8832d%3Ag%3ARCMAAOSwOzxe6PsA&nma=true&si=QIfNIeKbo4ezrbAnBHEKuK1XSj8%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

$8 K Newstand sale doesn't look too bad now.  The newstand must be 1:100 ratio at least.

 

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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2 minutes ago, spidermanbeyond said:

News flash: ULTIMATE FALLOUT 4 CGC 9.8 DJURDEVIC VARIANT 1:25 MILES MORALES JUST SOLD FOR $9 K.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/ULTIMATE-FALLOUT-4-CGC-9-8-DJURDEVIC-VARIANT-1-25-MILES-MORALES-/233621193517?hash=item3664e8832d%3Ag%3ARCMAAOSwOzxe6PsA&nma=true&si=QIfNIeKbo4ezrbAnBHEKuK1XSj8%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

$8 K Newstand sale doesn't look too bad now.  The newstand must be 1:100 ratio at least.

 

The end is nigh :ohnoez:

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s-man

s-man

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9 minutes ago, spidermanbeyond said:

News flash: ULTIMATE FALLOUT 4 CGC 9.8 DJURDEVIC VARIANT 1:25 MILES MORALES JUST SOLD FOR $9 K.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/ULTIMATE-FALLOUT-4-CGC-9-8-DJURDEVIC-VARIANT-1-25-MILES-MORALES-/233621193517?hash=item3664e8832d%3Ag%3ARCMAAOSwOzxe6PsA&nma=true&si=QIfNIeKbo4ezrbAnBHEKuK1XSj8%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

$8 K Newstand sale doesn't look too bad now.  The newstand must be 1:100 ratio at least.

 

I don't think he stressed getting paid within 24 hours enough...:eyeroll:

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valiantman

valiantman

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I don't think it can be said enough... if ANY Marvel comic from 2011 is going to be worth $8,000+ in 2020, it would be nice if the pages inside were part of the reason.  Ultimate Fallout #4 fits that description. :foryou:

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