Amazing Fantasy #15 Club

[Shawn Low]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

[Jaydogrules]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

[The-Collector]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

[Jaydogrules]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

[The-Collector]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

[ft88]

A lot of books that quickly run up get the flat line then drift down treatment. Could easily happen with AF 15 (but not with BB28).

 

This is not a rare book and folks hoarding are doing so with the runup in prices. If we see some lengthy softness or downward drift, I imagine those 4.0 to 8.0's will come out of the woodwork.

 

Ed

 

Ed, AF 15 has beeen "running up" for 20 years. I think it would have flat lined by now if it was going to.

 

BB 28 was deader than a doornail until this movie tripe (hype) started

 

No argument here but a book running up for a long period of time will end at some point. Especially as the run up has gotten more aggressive these past few years.

 

As far as flat lining goes I'm thinking of key books like Avengers 4, Hulk 181, Spiderman 14, Green Lantern 76, Showcase 4, 22, Batman 227 or Detective 400. Not that these books haven't gone up in value - they have. More they haven't gone up in a straight line and ever increasing sloped line in all grades for such a long period.

 

No doubt this trend can continue and as long as comics as an industry stays strong, AF 15 will likely maintain value if not continue to go up. But there is just no such thing as a sure investment and the market (by definition) is generally a bet where 50% think its worth more than they paid and 50% think its worth less. Now AF 15 is anything but a perfectly efficient market. Still with movie hype BB28 could easily outpace AF15. And then it could settle worse than SC 22. Or not.

 

Seeing a lot of blind admiration for the price of the book (as opposed to the book itself) very quickly starts to look bubblicious. But bubbles can last a long time and no one will ring a bell.

[Jaydogrules]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

[G.A.tor]

A lot of books that quickly run up get the flat line then drift down treatment. Could easily happen with AF 15 (but not with BB28).

 

This is not a rare book and folks hoarding are doing so with the runup in prices. If we see some lengthy softness or downward drift, I imagine those 4.0 to 8.0's will come out of the woodwork.

 

Ed

 

Ed, AF 15 has beeen "running up" for 20 years. I think it would have flat lined by now if it was going to.

 

BB 28 was deader than a doornail until this movie tripe (hype) started

 

No argument here but a book running up for a long period of time will end at some point. Especially as the run up has gotten more aggressive these past few years.

 

As far as flat lining goes I'm thinking of key books like Avengers 4, Hulk 181, Spiderman 14, Green Lantern 76, Showcase 4, 22, Batman 227 or Detective 400. Not that these books haven't gone up in value - they have. More they haven't gone up in a straight line and ever increasing sloped line in all grades for such a long period.

 

No doubt this trend can continue and as long as comics as an industry stays strong, AF 15 will likely maintain value if not continue to go up. But there is just no such thing as a sure investment and the market (by definition) is generally a bet where 50% think its worth more than they paid and 50% think its worth less. Now AF 15 is anything but a perfectly efficient market. Still with movie hype BB28 could easily outpace AF15. And then it could settle worse than SC 22. Or not.

 

Seeing a lot of blind admiration for the price of the book (as opposed to the book itself) very quickly starts to look bubblicious. But bubbles can last a long time and no one will ring a bell.

 

take SC 4 off that list...book is still in an upward growth period and has not taken any backwards pricing movement in 10 years that I am aware of

[The-Collector]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

 

Yes, so the dealer can wait for those people who do care about those factors hence the book will bring a premium and that premium can then be estimated/predicted.

[ChasingKingKirby]

A lot of books that quickly run up get the flat line then drift down treatment. Could easily happen with AF 15 (but not with BB28).

 

This is not a rare book and folks hoarding are doing so with the runup in prices. If we see some lengthy softness or downward drift, I imagine those 4.0 to 8.0's will come out of the woodwork.

 

Ed

 

Ed, AF 15 has beeen "running up" for 20 years. I think it would have flat lined by now if it was going to.

 

BB 28 was deader than a doornail until this movie tripe (hype) started

 

No argument here but a book running up for a long period of time will end at some point. Especially as the run up has gotten more aggressive these past few years.

 

As far as flat lining goes I'm thinking of key books like Avengers 4, Hulk 181, Spiderman 14, Green Lantern 76, Showcase 4, 22, Batman 227 or Detective 400. Not that these books haven't gone up in value - they have. More they haven't gone up in a straight line and ever increasing sloped line in all grades for such a long period.

 

No doubt this trend can continue and as long as comics as an industry stays strong, AF 15 will likely maintain value if not continue to go up. But there is just no such thing as a sure investment and the market (by definition) is generally a bet where 50% think its worth more than they paid and 50% think its worth less. Now AF 15 is anything but a perfectly efficient market. Still with movie hype BB28 could easily outpace AF15. And then it could settle worse than SC 22. Or not.

 

Seeing a lot of blind admiration for the price of the book (as opposed to the book itself) very quickly starts to look bubblicious. But bubbles can last a long time and no one will ring a bell.

 

take SC 4 off that list...book is still in an upward growth period and has not taken any backwards pricing movement in 10 years that I am aware of

 

Wasn't there a bit of a lull over the last few years? Certainly not NOW, but like 09 to 12? I'm not saying a crater, but more of a flat-line.

[The-Collector]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

 

Yes, so the dealer can wait for those people who do care about those factors hence the book will bring a premium and that premium can then be estimated/predicted.

 

The point I take issue with is you seem to be saying that you can't roughly estimate the premium that desirable attributes will bring. But you can, and I often do, and dealers often do.

 

For example I had a HG bronze book at the start of the year with white pages and good centering. I listed it for 10% over ($2100) GPA and got that price quickly.

 

That some others don't care about those factors has nothing to do with those who do care and are willing to pay a premium. Someone familiar with the market and those buyers CAN roughly quantify the premium. To say this is not possible is contrary to common sense and wide spread practice.

[Comicdey]

I have bought and sold over 50 copies the last couple of years, and everyone I have paid or sold has been at or even well over gpa "average" for all the reasons I have mentioned in the past (thumbs u

 

Gator you've outbought me 25-1 (16.7-1 if you count a coverless copy) but my experience was that I managed to snag all copies below GPA. Both slabbed copies were via eBay where prices back in 2011 were all over the shop as compared with Heritage/CLink etc.

 

My own experience? It took a fair bit of patience and I passed over several beaters here on the boards at or above GPA.

 

What I did do was to set a three-month period to snag my copies and my parameters (minimum OW pages, good eye appeal, blue label etc) and of course, below GPA. I then focused on searching all the usual suspects for copies.

 

eBay can be good depending on the usual factors: time the auction ends, the photography (one of the ones I won was photographed terribly: it was a risk because the picture was taken at an angle with a flash so I couldn't see the cover properly). Still that one was quite a ways below GPA so even if I resold it later at GPA I'd be break even or possibly ahead.

 

I recently came back with the idea of perhaps finding a 5.0 or 6.0 but the way the market has gone, I'll just be happy sitting on what I own.

 

Great thread as always. Love the discussions.

 

 

I remember that copy. Had a good bit of marvel chipping if memory serves me correctly. For me, mc copies should sell below gpa because (IMO) they are generally inferior (eye appeal wise) to non marvel chipped copies in same assigned grade. That's why my copies generally cost more and sell for more... My minimum standards (always an exception of course) are:

Ow or better pq

NO marvel chipping

Good to great eye appeal for assigned grade.

 

Gpa combines the white paged/non mc past sales with the cr/ow chipped sales. Hence it is many times "easier" to find copies under gpa, which is why I don't rely on gpa when making a purchase (or sales) decision (thumbs u

 

Gator,

 

I'll take a nice solid spine and a bright glossy cover without too much general wear and the requisite marvel chipping over a beat well worn spine, dull colors and multiple creases with no marvel chipping all day long. Of course that describes my sweet 3.0 with cr/ow pages and marvel chipping. I've seen many 3.0's that can't compare that don't have marvel chipping. Not to disparage other people's copies but each collector has there pet peeves and deal breaker flaws. Eye appeal is everything as you've indicated, and what draws your eye positively and negatively differs for each collector.

[G.A.tor]

I have bought and sold over 50 copies the last couple of years, and everyone I have paid or sold has been at or even well over gpa "average" for all the reasons I have mentioned in the past (thumbs u

 

Gator you've outbought me 25-1 (16.7-1 if you count a coverless copy) but my experience was that I managed to snag all copies below GPA. Both slabbed copies were via eBay where prices back in 2011 were all over the shop as compared with Heritage/CLink etc.

 

My own experience? It took a fair bit of patience and I passed over several beaters here on the boards at or above GPA.

 

What I did do was to set a three-month period to snag my copies and my parameters (minimum OW pages, good eye appeal, blue label etc) and of course, below GPA. I then focused on searching all the usual suspects for copies.

 

eBay can be good depending on the usual factors: time the auction ends, the photography (one of the ones I won was photographed terribly: it was a risk because the picture was taken at an angle with a flash so I couldn't see the cover properly). Still that one was quite a ways below GPA so even if I resold it later at GPA I'd be break even or possibly ahead.

 

I recently came back with the idea of perhaps finding a 5.0 or 6.0 but the way the market has gone, I'll just be happy sitting on what I own.

 

Great thread as always. Love the discussions.

 

 

I remember that copy. Had a good bit of marvel chipping if memory serves me correctly. For me, mc copies should sell below gpa because (IMO) they are generally inferior (eye appeal wise) to non marvel chipped copies in same assigned grade. That's why my copies generally cost more and sell for more... My minimum standards (always an exception of course) are:

Ow or better pq

NO marvel chipping

Good to great eye appeal for assigned grade.

 

Gpa combines the white paged/non mc past sales with the cr/ow chipped sales. Hence it is many times "easier" to find copies under gpa, which is why I don't rely on gpa when making a purchase (or sales) decision (thumbs u

 

Gator,

 

I'll take a nice solid spine and a bright glossy cover without too much general wear and the requisite marvel chipping over a beat well worn spine, dull colors and multiple creases with no marvel chipping all day long. Of course that describes my sweet 3.0 with cr/ow pages and marvel chipping. I've seen many 3.0's that can't compare that don't have marvel chipping. Not to disparage other people's copies but each collector has there pet peeves and deal breaker flaws. Eye appeal is everything as you've indicated, and what draws your eye positively and negatively differs for each collector.

very true...but since, in theory, cgc doesn't downgrade for MC, I will take "your" copy (eye appeal) without the MC and thus have what I consider a superior copy for the grade...

 

I don't buy faded, ugly copies either, as they goes opposite to my "superior" eye appeal test (thumbs u

 

that's why I only buy (and subsequently sell) about 10-20 copies a year, versus 200+, because I find that less than 10-20% of copies meet my criteria

[Jaydogrules]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

 

Yes, so the dealer can wait for those people who do care about those factors hence the book will bring a premium and that premium can then be estimated/predicted.

 

The point I take issue with is you seem to be saying that you can't roughly estimate the premium that desirable attributes will bring. But you can, and I often do, and dealers often do.

 

For example I had a HG bronze book at the start of the year with white pages and good centering. I listed it for 10% over ($2100) GPA and got that price quickly.

 

That some others don't care about those factors has nothing to do with those who do care and are willing to pay a premium. Someone familiar with the market and those buyers CAN roughly quantify the premium. To say this is not possible is contrary to common sense and wide spread practice.

 

I'm not saying that "someone" won't pay a premium for a perceived additional value for PQ. However for every one person or anecdotal incident that you can cite for someone who did, I can cite an anecdote for when someone did not pay a premium or paid the same for a cream page book as they would have for a white one simply because they wanted that particular book. I can also cite numerous examples from my own personal experience with dealers who try to hike the price over PQ, I don't bite and they drop their price because they want to unload the book. If u can afford to hold out for another 3 or 5 percent because you think the PQ on your book warrants it that's great. But for every dealer that tries that and loses a sale there's another one who'll sell the book at market with no price hike and cash out and move on to the next book. The data is so mixed when it comes to keys I stand by my assertion that PQ just isn't as important as some folks make it out to be.

 

-J.

[The-Collector]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

 

Yes, so the dealer can wait for those people who do care about those factors hence the book will bring a premium and that premium can then be estimated/predicted.

 

The point I take issue with is you seem to be saying that you can't roughly estimate the premium that desirable attributes will bring. But you can, and I often do, and dealers often do.

 

For example I had a HG bronze book at the start of the year with white pages and good centering. I listed it for 10% over ($2100) GPA and got that price quickly.

 

That some others don't care about those factors has nothing to do with those who do care and are willing to pay a premium. Someone familiar with the market and those buyers CAN roughly quantify the premium. To say this is not possible is contrary to common sense and wide spread practice.

 

I'm not saying that "someone" won't pay a premium for a perceived additional value for PQ. However for every one person or anecdotal incident that you can cite for someone who did, I can cite an anecdote for when someone did not pay a premium or paid the same for a cream page book as they would have for a white one simply because they wanted that particular book. I can also cite numerous examples from my own personal experience with dealers who try to hike the price over PQ, I don't bite and they drop their price because they want to unload the book. If u can afford to hold out for another 3 or 5 percent because you think the PQ on your book warrants it that's great. But for every dealer that tries that and loses a sale there's another one who'll sell the book at market with no price hike and cash out and move on to the next book. The data is so mixed when it comes to keys I stand by my assertion that PQ just isn't as important as some folks make it out to be.

 

-J.

 

That is fine. I agree. But it is contingent to the original point that was made...

[Sqeggs]

Gator: As with the discussion about PQ in the Clink auction thread in the GA section, wouldn't it make sense that GPA does not separate sales based on PQ (anything above slightly brittle at least) and marvel chipping (as it is viewed as a printing defect) since CGC does not detract grade points for these things? Whether or not certain buyers do on the open market is another story of course.

 

-J.

 

I assume everyone knows this … but GPA does include the cert number on most sales for recent years. So it's possible to click through and check the PQ on most sales.

[MR SigS]

Sorry to interrupt

I realized I never posted my club card. It's a little tattered , but it's complete, glue/tape free, and all mine

 

[Jaydogrules]

I think it's clear that GPA averages work as a baseline and the market determines the premium or discount based on factors such as PQ, defects, etc.

 

Perhaps there could be a rule of thumb for this assessment.

 

Ie: Good PQ +5% per grade bump; perfect centering +5% vice versa. These figures are completely arbitrary but I'm sure the data can be examined and extrapolated.

 

GPA2.0 anyone?

 

 

Again I think that would be totally arbitrary and almost completely impossible for GPA to quantify since PQ means less to some people than others, and some will pay almost any price for a tough to find personal grail or, key, or a missing issue in their run no matter how good or bad the cover looks for the assigned grade or how "supple" the internal pages are that no one will ever see or touch anyway unless the book is liberated from the slab. This applies especially to tough to find or valuable grails.

 

-J.

 

Just because some individuals have personal preferences does not mean there is not a preference shared by a majority. If there is such a preference you should be able to work out a rough guide.

 

In fact, some dealers have already got a good grasp of what the rough numbers are and make their money by being able to quantify these qualitative traits.

 

 

Of this I have no doubt. However it also depends on what "age" you're talking about. PQ means A LOT less in GA. I'm not saying most buyers wouldn't balk at an AF 15 with slightly brittle pages, but over in the GA a guy will pay $15K for a 1.8 Tec 31 with the same page quality. By the same token over in the BA most might demand a Hulk 181 with nothing worse than OW/W pages, and only a 9.8 with White pages in the CA and MA. I'm not so sure a "majority" have decided what PQ AF 15 should sell for more than another, because after all you only need ONE buyer to want your book, and that brings me back to my only point: Other than a book with brittle pages I think you can throw out PQ as an important or relevant deciding factor when it comes to major keys/grails.

 

-J.

 

You just reiterated your point. The fact remains, it is possible to quantify these attributes with a rough working approximation of the boost they give to value.

 

....and if you have a buyer on the hook ready, willing and able to subscribe to the notion that there should be a "premium". I personally have poo-poohed dealers when they try to justify even a slightly higher than normal price for a book I want by saying "But it has white pages!". My response is, "So?", and we continue to negotiate in spite of that. And I know numerous buyers who do the same thing, and just as many who will wait three years for a certain book to come along with "White pages" only. Since dealers are salesman I don't begrudge a dealer whatever sales tactic he can muster to maximize his profit margin.

 

-J.

 

Yes, so the dealer can wait for those people who do care about those factors hence the book will bring a premium and that premium can then be estimated/predicted.

 

The point I take issue with is you seem to be saying that you can't roughly estimate the premium that desirable attributes will bring. But you can, and I often do, and dealers often do.

 

For example I had a HG bronze book at the start of the year with white pages and good centering. I listed it for 10% over ($2100) GPA and got that price quickly.

 

That some others don't care about those factors has nothing to do with those who do care and are willing to pay a premium. Someone familiar with the market and those buyers CAN roughly quantify the premium. To say this is not possible is contrary to common sense and wide spread practice.

 

I'm not saying that "someone" won't pay a premium for a perceived additional value for PQ. However for every one person or anecdotal incident that you can cite for someone who did, I can cite an anecdote for when someone did not pay a premium or paid the same for a cream page book as they would have for a white one simply because they wanted that particular book. I can also cite numerous examples from my own personal experience with dealers who try to hike the price over PQ, I don't bite and they drop their price because they want to unload the book. If u can afford to hold out for another 3 or 5 percent because you think the PQ on your book warrants it that's great. But for every dealer that tries that and loses a sale there's another one who'll sell the book at market with no price hike and cash out and move on to the next book. The data is so mixed when it comes to keys I stand by my assertion that PQ just isn't as important as some folks make it out to be.

 

-J.

 

That is fine. I agree. But it is contingent to the original point that was made...

 

 

 

-J.

[Sqeggs]

A lot of books that quickly run up get the flat line then drift down treatment. Could easily happen with AF 15 (but not with BB28).

 

This is not a rare book and folks hoarding are doing so with the runup in prices. If we see some lengthy softness or downward drift, I imagine those 4.0 to 8.0's will come out of the woodwork.

 

Ed

 

Ed, AF 15 has beeen "running up" for 20 years. I think it would have flat lined by now if it was going to.

 

BB 28 was deader than a doornail until this movie tripe (hype) started

 

No argument here but a book running up for a long period of time will end at some point. Especially as the run up has gotten more aggressive these past few years.

 

As far as flat lining goes I'm thinking of key books like Avengers 4, Hulk 181, Spiderman 14, Green Lantern 76, Showcase 4, 22, Batman 227 or Detective 400. Not that these books haven't gone up in value - they have. More they haven't gone up in a straight line and ever increasing sloped line in all grades for such a long period.

 

No doubt this trend can continue and as long as comics as an industry stays strong, AF 15 will likely maintain value if not continue to go up. But there is just no such thing as a sure investment and the market (by definition) is generally a bet where 50% think its worth more than they paid and 50% think its worth less. Now AF 15 is anything but a perfectly efficient market. Still with movie hype BB28 could easily outpace AF15. And then it could settle worse than SC 22. Or not.

 

Seeing a lot of blind admiration for the price of the book (as opposed to the book itself) very quickly starts to look bubblicious. But bubbles can last a long time and no one will ring a bell.

 

Well stated. If AF 15 -- or any other book that has done well in recent years -- was a lock to continue to increase in value over the next 20 years as it has over the past 20 years, people would be crazy to sell it. (Leaving aside, of course, dealers who need to generate current income from their business.)

 

Comics are certainly not a market that works as efficiently as the stock market, but there are a fair number of people with deep pockets who carefully watch all the majors auctions searching for bargains. I figure those folks are probably better at sniffing out trends than I am. As a result, from an investment viewpoint, I expect any books I buy at auction are going to be fully priced.

 

I guess I'm a Debbie Downer for saying this, but all collectibles are risky investments. I'm keeping my AF 15 not because I think it's a great investment but because I like having a copy in my collection.

[Shawn Low]

I guess I'm a Debbie Downer for saying this, but all collectibles are risky investments. I'm keeping my AF 15 not because I think it's a great investment but because I like having a copy in my collection.

 

As with any investment, the usual maxim applies: Only buy what you can afford.

 

Also, I don't know about you guys, but I'd love if we collated all the scans and pics of posted AF15s here, on Heritage, Clink etc. We could host it on a Google Drive, Dropbox, etc.