THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Glassman10]

40 minutes ago, SC22 said:

The book will do just fine long term in all grades. The sweet spot now is 6.0 and higher and that makes sens since the population drops a lot in that grade and higher.

Actually, I don't think a 6.0 is safe unless it is absolutely free of chipping or any other disease. The sales don't warrant that confidence. 7.0+ seems above the line.

Long run, I think it will change to the positive. The six month surge may have been a bridge too far. It strikes me that you have to look at it from an investment/return point of view. Flipping is dangerous right now. A 5.5 at 39K after hitting 57k? Either the grading is wrong or the market is skittish. Supply and demand are in the saddle and the base question is whether the comic is desired at the level to justify that price.  Keep in mind, it's not a rare book. I think that it's worth looking around and seeing if this is isolated to the AF15 or whether its a condition for a lot more books than this one. I'd stay out of auctions at this point unless i simply could not lose and really needed that cash. 

Edited November 29, 2017 by Glassman10

[SC22]

41 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

Actually, I don't think a 6.0 is safe unless it is absolutely free of chipping or any other disease. The sales don't warrant that confidence. 7.0+ seems above the line.

Long run, I think it will change to the positive. The six month surge may have been a bridge too far. It strikes me that you have to look at it from an investment/return point of view. Flipping is dangerous right now. A 5.5 at 39K after hitting 57k? Either the grading is wrong or the market is skittish. Supply and demand are in the saddle and the base question is whether the comic is desired at the level to justify that price.  Keep in mind, it's not a rare book. I think that it's worth looking around and seeing if this is isolated to the AF15 or whether its a condition for a lot more books than this one. I'd stay out of auctions at this point unless i simply could not lose and really needed that cash. 

I am not selling mine for at least another 10 to 15 years or more. I am not worried. But I believe in my statement 6.0 and higher is where it is more stable. The CGC population reports agree with my statement that after this grade the population drops off a whole lot.

[SC22]

That 5.5 that sold for 57k was way way nicer than the one that sold last night. That top right corner looked like someone slammed a door on it more than once. That is why it went for 39k and not 57k or close to that. I would prefer light MC over that copy that sold for 39k.

I am not saying the market has not slowed down in all grades 7.0 (some went for 150k now some go for 140k and some 130k) and lower.

To many copies in 5.5 and lower have come up for sale in the last few months.

Sellers need to pace themselves more in those grades. If they want to get top dollar that is.

Edited November 29, 2017 by SC22

[SC22]

The CGC 4.0 sold for 23 500$ and the CGC 3.0 went for 20 250$.

http://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FFocusedOnly%3D1%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3Damazing%2Bfantasy%2B15%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1209185&id=1209185&itemType=0

http://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FFocusedOnly%3D1%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3Damazing%2Bfantasy%2B15%26GO%3DGO%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1215645&id=1215645&itemType=0

[Glassman10]

well I saw numbers  that said a 4.0 went for 36K, just on GPA in summer. Time will indeed tell if the 6.0 holds the value you suggest, I have not seen that.  57 is a long way from 39. My 5.0  went at 55K with Bob if you recall. That was sept 11th, There's a disturbing amount of slop right now. corners or not. I sure wouldn't auction anything if I had the choice. 

[SC22]

49 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

well I saw numbers  that said a 4.0 went for 36K, just on GPA in summer. Time will indeed tell if the 6.0 holds the value you suggest, I have not seen that.  57 is a long way from 39. My 5.0  went at 55K with Bob if you recall. That was sept 11th, There's a disturbing amount of slop right now. corners or not. I sure wouldn't auction anything if I had the choice. 

I still don't believe the book will go back down to 2015-16 prices. In the end if it went up 50% to 75% (150% was maybe just to fast) in all grades that is still a lot in one year.

Edited November 30, 2017 by SC22

[Glassman10]

I think that the 29K for the 5.0 last december on GPA would be rock bottom. Now I think that 36-37K may be more likely for the short term. I continue to think that 6.0's are indeed undervalued currently. 

What I'm troubled about is that during the summer months a 4.0 ostensibly sold for 36K, a very nice price. I asked a friend of mine to send me a pdf of the GPA report yesterday and it now lists a 4.0 at 26K.  Since it's a pdf, I can't dig in deeper. That is not the first time I've seen sales prices altered well down the road if that in fact is what I'm seeing.  While I continually hear people saying that it's not just the AF15 being reported on ( and I understand that) It makes me antsy to see such discrepancies showing up. Is it just me, ?

GPA is ostensible a bellwether of sales. Could they maybe spend just a bit more time on the top fifty sellers out there? Or am I simply wrong?

 

[G.A.tor]

4 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

I think that the 29K for the 5.0 last december on GPA would be rock bottom. Now I think that 36-37K may be more likely for the short term. I continue to think that 6.0's are indeed undervalued currently. 

What I'm troubled about is that during the summer months a 4.0 ostensibly sold for 36K, a very nice price. I asked a friend of mine to send me a pdf of the GPA report yesterday and it now lists a 4.0 at 26K.  Since it's a pdf, I can't dig in deeper. That is not the first time I've seen sales prices altered well down the road if that in fact is what I'm seeing.  While I continually hear people saying that it's not just the AF15 being reported on ( and I understand that) It makes me antsy to see such discrepancies showing up. Is it just me, ?

GPA is ostensible a bellwether of sales. Could they maybe spend just a bit more time on the top fifty sellers out there? Or am I simply wrong?

 

There is still a 35k June sale listed and 2 May sales of 30...

[Glassman10]

I see that as a 5.5 but not as a 4.0. Again, I can't dig into those numbers from a pdf. 

[Jordysnordy]

16 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

well I saw numbers  that said a 4.0 went for 36K, just on GPA in summer. Time will indeed tell if the 6.0 holds the value you suggest, I have not seen that.  57 is a long way from 39. My 5.0  went at 55K with Bob if you recall. That was sept 11th, There's a disturbing amount of slop right now. corners or not. I sure wouldn't auction anything if I had the choice. 

Geez it's hard NOT to recall with you mentioning it seemingly every other day. And please define "slop" for us - any book with MC seems to be "slop" in your eyes. Maybe for YOU books with MC are slop, but as @VintageComics has pointed out, not everyone if grossly offended by copies with MC. There are reasons why these books do not have higher grades and MC does play into the grading. Lastly, nothing wrong with auctions. The ASM 1 CGC 6.0 SS sold for 15K on Tuesday, a new GPA high by almost 2K for ASM 1 in 6.0. It's easy to point out less than stellar AF 15 sales (ie the 7.5 for 130K) and make a blanket statement  that you wouldn't auction anything. Yes Bob did great with your book but I'm pretty sure every dealer sits on quite  a few books for long periods of time because the seller has set a high target price (like putting a reserve on a book at auction). It's fine to dig in and only support one side but you need to try and be fair with the way one interprets the data as it's very easy to skew it.

[Jordysnordy]

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

I see that as a 5.5 but not as a 4.0. Again, I can't dig into those numbers from a pdf. 

 

[comicquant]

11 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

Geez it's hard NOT to recall with you mentioning it seemingly every other day. And please define "slop" for us - any book with MC seems to be "slop" in your eyes. Maybe for YOU books with MC are slop, but as @VintageComics has pointed out, not everyone if grossly offended by copies with MC. There are reasons why these books do not have higher grades and MC does play into the grading. Lastly, nothing wrong with auctions. The ASM 1 CGC 6.0 SS sold for 15K on Tuesday, a new GPA high by almost 2K for ASM 1 in 6.0. It's easy to point out less than stellar AF 15 sales (ie the 7.5 for 130K) and make a blanket statement  that you wouldn't auction anything. Yes Bob did great with your book but I'm pretty sure every dealer sits on quite  a few books for long periods of time because the seller has set a high target price (like putting a reserve on a book at auction). It's fine to dig in and only support one side but you need to try and be fair with the way one interprets the data as it's very easy to skew it.

Maybe we can have Arch automatically add the following as the first line to each new post:

Glassman's 5.0 went at 55K with Bob if you recall.

[Glassman10]

By "Slop" I meant in the prices being achieved.  I wasn't referring to chipping at all. I was referring to price variants in the same grade point from CGC. Sorry to have offended your sensibilities. 

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

By "Slop" I meant in the prices being achieved.  I wasn't referring to chipping at all. I was referring to price variants in the same grade point from CGC. Sorry to have offended your sensibilities. 

Again, price variations have ALWAYS been a part of the hobby.

IMO the main problem with the onset of the internet age is that people over analyze prices on a daily basis, worrying about this or that.

And that over analyzing of prices is what even causes some of these market fluctuations and volatility. A group of people holding a particular book see a book sell under expectations and this causes a massive panic with people dumping books because the sky is falling. It would be funny if it wasn't so negative.

Market fluctuations are normal. What isn't is when books double and triple in price and all you are seeing is a correction as the mania subsides after a panic to get a copy this summer.

[VintageComics]

5 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

I continue to think that 6.0's are indeed undervalued currently. 

If someone wants a sweet 6.0 at an undervalued price, feel free to hit me up.

[drbanner]

2 hours ago, comicquant said:

Maybe we can have Arch automatically add the following as the first line to each new post:

Glassman's 5.0 went at 55K with Bob if you recall.

You mean Glassman sold a CGC 5.0 AF 15 for $55K through Bob!?!?

Thanks for the reminder, just in case I missed it the last 37 times he mentioned it. 

[NoMan]

It's an amazing story that Glassman found his AF15 in a abandoned school bus in a junkyard in the late 60s. I know he repeats himself a lot, but who doesn't? Have I told you all the story about my how my wife was gonna buy a horse but let me buy a really expensive comic book instead? I think on my 10th time telling the story on my 10th post someone made a meme with a goofy looking nerd behind a computer and it said, "X men #1 or a horse?" Funny but as a newcomer around here it kinda hurt my feelings, but, um, I did get a really nice key book out of it and made a really nice friend here (who PM'd me to not let the a-holes get to me, and said welcome) who I had the pleasure to meet in person digging through an older gentlemen's (who repeated himself a lot) personal comic collection. 

By his posts here Glassman seems like a decent stand-up fellow, not that anyone said otherwise. It's just nice when people are nice. (Speaking solely of Glassman - he seems very nice)

Edited November 30, 2017 by NoMan

[bababooey]

31 minutes ago, NoMan said:

It's an amazing story that Glassman found his AF15 in a abandoned school bus in a junkyard in the late 60s. I know he repeats himself a lot, but who doesn't? Have I told you all the story about my how my wife was gonna buy a horse but let me buy a really expensive comic book instead? I think on my 10th time telling the story on my 10th post someone made a meme with a goofy looking nerd behind a computer and it said, "X men #1 or a horse?" Funny but as a newcomer around here it kinda hurt my feelings, but, um, I did get a really nice key book out of it and made a really nice friend here (who PM'd me to not let the a-holes get to me, and said welcome) who I had the pleasure to meet in person digging through an older gentlemen's (who repeated himself a lot) personal comic collection. 

By his posts here Glassman seems like a decent stand-up fellow, not that anyone said otherwise. It's just nice when people are nice. (Speaking solely of Glassman - he seems very nice)

[Glassman10]

You might go back, look and count. Initially I mentioned the price and have refrained from doing it up until a little bit ago. I did indicate multiple times that it went at a nice price for good reason, trying to make a point. Anyone who went to Bob's Board would see the prices Bob has been getting, without auctions and naming the price. 

My point was and has been that auctions are a risky way of putting an AF15 out there and there's a lot of evidence to suggest that the risk is very real. I only mentioned the actual price a second time to point out that two 5.0's have sold at that price which anyone can see looking at Strong's site. The Metropolitan comic went for more at 57K  but was a higher grade and the 4.0 went for 35K as I understand it. You can look at Highgrade comics for other prices. Those price boosts were real but have not been sustained supporting  only four sales I believe but it seems to have prompted a rush to market which fell flat this fall . By the time one factors in the premiums for buyers and sellers, it's not particularly attractive.  That's my point about auction and prices and profits while declining to view this as a hobby. 

I regret having irritated as many people as I seem to have irritated. I'm not trying to show off, I'm looking at results. Right now, things are cooled way off despite a lot of hopes. When I asked if this was experienced across the boards on the top fifty books, I was serious. Is it just AF15 or is it more widespread? If it's just the AF15 then the earlier posts about receding prices seem legitimate. Maybe they're market wide, I simply don't know.

What I do know is how my posts have been received here. I'm not a dealer, I don't do auctions. I sold my collection . I certainly got lucky. Given that and given the reception to any of my observations, I'll take my leave. I think the people who have helped me understand what I currently think I understand I do thank. I enjoyed collection over those five decades but this is not really offering up any value at this point.   This sure doesn't seem like a fuzzy warm hobby to me. 

[SC22]

Sorry you feel that way!!

Edited December 1, 2017 by SC22