THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Jaydogrules]

37 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

as has been discussed here at length, GPA does not include results from comiclink, private sales and quite a few other sources. and as has also been discussed ad nauseum, bob storms sold glassmans 5.0 last year for 50k. so yes, this is quite a drop.  it's a mistake to think that GPA is comprehensive. it's a nice resource, but hardly complete. 

"Quite a drop" from what?   What a 5.0 sold for ?  This isn't a 5.0.  What comiclink sales can you link to that were significantly higher than the sale price of this 4.5 in the last six months?  And Bob Storms is great but he specifically does not share the results of his private sales so he is not a data source. 

-J.

[silentassassin]

Question: I have noticed a huge drop of copies up for sale on ebay, any rational to this?

[namisgr]

4 minutes ago, silentassassin said:

Question: I have noticed a huge drop of copies up for sale on ebay, any rational to this?

Record prices bring out the copies for sale, so it could be inferred from the drop that the record prices are taking a break.

 

Edited March 21, 2018 by namisgr

[silentassassin]

I was thinking that perhaps the supply was drying up? Could that be possible?

[thedude]

1 hour ago, www.alexgross.com said:

as has been discussed here at length, GPA does not include results from comiclink, private sales and quite a few other sources. and as has also been discussed ad nauseum, bob storms sold glassmans 5.0 last year for 50k. so yes, this is quite a drop.  it's a mistake to think that GPA is comprehensive. it's a nice resource, but hardly complete. 

really? I hadn't heard about this sale.

[drbanner]

2 hours ago, silentassassin said:

Question: I have noticed a huge drop of copies up for sale on ebay, any rational to this?

Prices are down, no one wants to sell at 2016 prices.

[Jaydogrules]

25 minutes ago, drbanner said:

Prices are down, no one wants to sell at 2016 prices.

Eh, not quite.  

The 2016 high for a 4.5 was $17,500- $9k less than today's average pricing.  

More like available copies are just drying up and sitting in collections for now.   

-J.

Edited March 21, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[Dark Knight]

2 hours ago, thedude said:

4 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

as has been discussed here at length, GPA does not include results from comiclink, private sales and quite a few other sources. and as has also been discussed ad nauseum, bob storms sold glassmans 5.0 last year for 50k. so yes, this is quite a drop.  it's a mistake to think that GPA is comprehensive. it's a nice resource, but hardly complete. 

really? I hadn't heard about this sale.

me neither..  Please tell me more!!!

[Dark Knight]

I guess we have been accustomed to always seeing high and even higher sales from the last one in that grade everytime an AF 15 is up for sale.   But the reality of it all is that AF 15 is still doing very well.  2-3 years ago, a copy would sell for a lot cheaper than what it is now, even with this pullback in prices.  Just because 2 years ago the book just was like a hot potato selling for record prices doesn't mean it is a major slump now.   It's still performing well.

There will always be supply for AF 15 unless you get up into the higher grades where it gets rare.  But anywhere from 0.5-7.0 we can most likely see a copy or two up for sale every year.

[drbanner]

When 5.0's sell again for $55K (glassman should've auctioned his copy!), and 4.0's sell again for $35K, and 3.5's sell again for $26.5K (yes, that 4.5 just sold for less than a 3.5 did last November), we'll see the supply increase. 

Edited March 21, 2018 by drbanner

[Jaydogrules]

24 minutes ago, drbanner said:

When 5.0's sell again for $55K (glassman should've auctioned his copy!), and 4.0's sell again for $35K, and 3.5's sell again for $26.5K (yes, that 4.5 just sold for less than a 3.5 did last November), we'll see the supply increase. 

To paraphrase VintageComics-  outliers do not represent FMV.

-J.

[zhamlau]

To be honest 29k for a 4.5 clean seems consistent price wise. I don't know if i would call that a drop its more likely a leveling off. In 2015 I sold a 4.0 for 10k with only minor chipping (2 chips total i believe), that was what it sold for. Now it sells 20-24k. I dont think of that as "bottoming out".

Prices couldn't keep skyrocketing, doesn't mean its cratering and falling back down (it might some day, but clearly that day is not today). It was under priced for a long time and over the course of a year and half that price increased dramatically UNTIL the market decided its relative value had been established.From there it leveled out and some balance has occurred. Some times a few people went to war and speculation cause them to drive it up a little over the norm. Sometimes the stars didn't align and a sale occurred on the lower end of the newly established scale occurs.

Sales like the ones shown really seem exactly right to me. in my head this is what this book should sell for. Just a few weeks ago we saw a (imo) slightly over graded chipped up lower PQ 5.0 sell for 34k.  A chipped by decent 3.0 for 17k. Shouldn't a clean 4.5 sell around 29k using those as current auction markers?

[comicquant]

1 hour ago, drbanner said:

Prices are down, no one wants to sell at 2016 prices.

 

47 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Eh, not quite.  

The 2016 high for a 4.5 was $17,500- $9k less than today's average pricing.  

More like available copies are just drying up and sitting in collections for now.   

-J.

Isn't that exactly what @drbanner is saying?  No one wants to sell their 4.5 AF15 for $17,500...

[Jaydogrules]

3 minutes ago, comicquant said:

 

Isn't that exactly what @drbanner is saying?  No one wants to sell their 4.5 AF15 for $17,500...

No that's not what he was saying. What he was saying (or rather, implying) was that $26k-$27k was 2016 pricing, and it was not.  Not even close.  

-J.

[namisgr]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

More like available copies are just drying up and sitting in collections for now.   

-J.

That doesn't explain sub-GPA record sales occurring in 2018.  Indeed, in a market of decreasing supply prices should expect to increase, if all other factors were equal.

[drbanner]

13 minutes ago, namisgr said:

Indeed, in a market of decreasing supply prices should expect to increase, if all other factors were equal.

[Jaydogrules]

2 hours ago, namisgr said:

That doesn't explain sub-GPA record sales occurring in 2018.  Indeed, in a market of decreasing supply prices should expect to increase, if all other factors were equal.

On the GPA I'm looking at, 9 out of the 14 arrows for 90 day sales activity are green (in 0.5 and up grades). But of the five red arrows showing, one is down less than 3% (2.5 SS), another is down less than 2% (4.5) and another showing a red arrow, in fact has a GPA high for its most recent sale  (1.0).  Hardly the full scale book wide price drop some seem to be hoping for.   

The book is indeed primed for another advancement in prices if supply remains constricted like this into con season.   

-J.

Edited March 21, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[Subby1938]

In 2008 I could have bought blue label cgc 4.0 AF15 for 4K Canadian at my local shop . Let’s see where this book is in 2024 lmao. I bet GPA won’t f’in matter because this will continue to climb. 

[silentassassin]

12 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

In 2008 I could have bought blue label cgc 4.0 AF15 for 4K Canadian at my local shop . Let’s see where this book is in 2024 lmao. I bet GPA won’t f’in matter because this will continue to climb. 

I just thought it was odd that the supply was low on ebay since I last looked. I also don't think that it is an issue of people not wanting to sell because prices are dropping, if that were the case then a lot of books would not be listed in general. If someone wants to sell (is motivated) they will regardless of the supply in most cases. I was wondering myself if the low supply could indicate price increases or a building up of demand. 

[Subby1938]

I think CGC blue labels are hard to find now . You see lots of qualified and yellow labels. Yes there are some great mid grade blues out there but I can’t afford those . Judging from avengers infinity war trailer more Interest will come to these early books. I’m going to sit back and enjoy