(attempted) Flip of the Day! 12 12

[artdealer]

5 hours ago, marktom said:

Wasn't this page on Mitch's site, and at San Diego, just a few months ago at (I believe) $9500? If it didn't sell there, why does someone buy it for an extra $650+ on Heritage and expect someone to pay even more on top of that?  Mitch's site is very well known so it wasn't exactly hidden....... Great page BTW. 

--Mark T.

Mark,

I have a different page from a different issue on my site. I never had the page that Borock is flipping.

MI

[marktom]

5 minutes ago, artdealer said:

Mark,

I have a different page from a different issue on my site. I never had the page that Borock is flipping.

MI

Sorry Mitch. I got my pages confused. Love the page on your site BTW. Amazing last panel of Ant Man!

--Mark T

 

[artdealer]

I was tempted to bid on the page Borock is flipping. Love Kirby Ant-Man and Giant-Man. There isn't much Marvel or 1970s DC work I like enough to buy for myself.

MI

Edited November 22, 2017 by artdealer

[glendgold]

17 hours ago, artdealer said:

I was tempted to bid on the page Borock is flipping. Love Kirby Ant-Man and Giant-Man. There isn't much Marvel or 1970s DC work I like enough to buy for myself.

MI

I like the page a lot.  I was surprised to see a dealer had bought it for flipping, but only because it looks to me like it was purchased at the top of the market.  I'll be delighted to be proved wrong, if only for the morale boost to my own Ant Man page, heh. 

[suspense39]

 

“Flipping has long been a bit of a boogeyman for art dealers and many high-level collectors, as it can distort an artist’s market and disrupt the careful calibrations of pricing and placement that guide art career management. In a 2014 statement, however, Christie’s told the Timesthat, “The speculative art buyer, or ‘flipper,’ motivated purely by short-term investment potential, is the anomaly in our experience.”

https://hyperallergic.com/412560/from-benefit-to-blockbuster-a-kerry-james-marshall-paintings-dramatic-flip/

 

[lobrac]

GREEN LANTERN #76 page 4 sold in the HA Signature Auction on Nov. 17, 2017 for: $17,925.00

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/neal-adams-green-lantern-76-story-page-4-original-art-dc-1970-/a/7169-91062.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

Crazy offers being accepted now:

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1438005&GSub=186900

[lobrac]

JUSTICE LEAGUE TASK FORCE #11 cover sold in the Heritage November 2017 Signature Auction for $430.20

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-velluto-and-jeff-albrecht-justice-league-task-force-11-cover-original-art-dc-comics-1994-/a/7169-94531.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

Now on CAF "only taking trade and real offers" (as opposed to fake offers?)

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1438243&GSub=186924

 

[vodou]

4 hours ago, lobrac said:

Now on CAF "only taking trade and real offers" (as opposed to fake offers?)

"real" = (much, much) > $430.21

[Rick2you2]

15 hours ago, vodou said:

"real" = (much, much) > $430.21

I would generally be willing to give someone a 10-15% profit (plus shipping) if they bought a piece at auction recently because they did shell out their money and take a risk. So if they paid $30 for shipping and you add 10-15%, I could see spending, say, $520 ($430.21 + $30 for his shipping + 10% of $430, rounded up, plus shipping to me). 

There are also some pieces that I love to watch languish. Call it schadenfreude. There was a Neal Adams Phantom Stranger cover that the prior owner couldn't move for about $9,000. It sold at auction for around $10,500. The Buyer has since marked it up to $15,000--where it continues to sit in all its mediocre glory.

[Hekla]

20 hours ago, lobrac said:

JUSTICE LEAGUE TASK FORCE #11 cover sold in the Heritage November 2017 Signature Auction for $430.20

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-velluto-and-jeff-albrecht-justice-league-task-force-11-cover-original-art-dc-comics-1994-/a/7169-94531.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

Now on CAF "only taking trade and real offers" (as opposed to fake offers?)

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1438243&GSub=186924

 

they didn't even bother to crop out the 'Image by Heritage' stamp on the bottom

[aokartman]

2 hours ago, Hekla said:

they didn't even bother to crop out the 'Image by Heritage' stamp on the bottom

I guess that's called transparency!  Actually, the Heritage "imprimatur" gives it the authenticity badge.  In such fast-moving cycles of speculation, it could be looked at as a plus for the piece.  "Look what I found, on Heritage!" 

My opinion, David

[vodou]

21 hours ago, vodou said:

"real" = (much, much) > $430.21

 

6 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

I would generally be willing to give someone a 10-15% profit (plus shipping) if they bought a piece at auction recently because they did shell out their money and take a risk. So if they paid $30 for shipping and you add 10-15%, I could see spending, say, $520 ($430.21 + $30 for his shipping + 10% of $430, rounded up, plus shipping to me). 

Nobody that's buying to flip immediately (not even a whiff of 'keep this for myself a bit') is in this for 10-15%. Not to be rude but they don't care what you think or would be willing to give...you ain't ever gonna be their customer. Ever. When you're ready to give 25%, they'll want 50%, etc. And as long as the market overall is moving up, or just has the appearance* doing so, they will eventually find their customer, a newbie or enough time will pass and that somebody just won't care what it sold for a year or two ago or whatever, that will be stale news.

10-15% ROI regularly as a professional flipper is just bad business in a low turnover environment. Not worth the trouble. And certainly not worth the risk**. You can pull that bs off in a high volume operation like a gas station, grocery store, WalMart, and the like where massive volume at low % roi still adds up to enough in your pocket that it beats going out and getting a job or putting in more hours at that same job!

 

*Perception is reality.

**You need big winners, 2x, 3x, 5x to provide big liquidity to cover the much deadwood and occasional loser.

[Lee B.]

If you missed out on this nice Wonder Woman splash by Jose Delbo and Dave Hunt 11 days ago at Heritage:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/splash-pages/jose-delbo-and-dave-hunt-wonder-woman-272-splash-page-original-art-dc-comics-1980-/a/121747-13049.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116

You now have another chance to add it to your collection:

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1438160

I think the new price of $1,600 is not all that bad for a splash of this quality.  Best, Lee 

[Rick2you2]

17 hours ago, vodou said:

 

Nobody that's buying to flip immediately (not even a whiff of 'keep this for myself a bit') is in this for 10-15%. Not to be rude but they don't care what you think or would be willing to give...you ain't ever gonna be their customer. Ever. When you're ready to give 25%, they'll want 50%, etc. And as long as the market overall is moving up, or just has the appearance* doing so, they will eventually find their customer, a newbie or enough time will pass and that somebody just won't care what it sold for a year or two ago or whatever, that will be stale news.

10-15% ROI regularly as a professional flipper is just bad business in a low turnover environment. Not worth the trouble. And certainly not worth the risk**. You can pull that bs off in a high volume operation like a gas station, grocery store, WalMart, and the like where massive volume at low % roi still adds up to enough in your pocket that it beats going out and getting a job or putting in more hours at that same job!

 

*Perception is reality.

**You need big winners, 2x, 3x, 5x to provide big liquidity to cover the much deadwood and occasional loser.

You weren't being rude, and you are right, I'm not a likely customer. I actually study the market before I buy.

What escapes me is how "professional" flippers can actually survive. This stuff is not a liquid asset and there is a small market out there. So, logically, they must have an awful lot of money tied up in non-moving stock. And as for the passage of time, have you seen what the stock market has done this year? 

So, if you know, how do some of the pro's manage their finances? 

[vodou]

34 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

What escapes me is how "professional" flippers can actually survive.

I don't think they are surviving, at least not on their flipping activity alone. And by that measure then, they are not professionals. This is especially true if they're not reporting their activity as a business to the IRS. That's a whole separate can of worms and I think a lot of people have much greater audit risk than they think. Coinbase users will soon be finding this out.

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

This stuff is not a liquid asset and there is a small market out there.

You are correct, not liquid at assumed FMV (comps). Nobody knows what long-term results a sustained fire-sale environment would produce. How much stock can a relatively small market absorb before running out of money, interest or both? IMO, that's where the rubber meets the road, where actual value is determined and proven. The rest is just puffery.

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

So, logically, they must have an awful lot of money tied up in non-moving stock.

It would seem that way, but not necessarily. A lot of money has rotated out of other collectibles (high end comics and cards primarily) and into comic art. A lot of comic art has been sold to buy comic art too. But it's mostly not new (earned income) money, and because the original cost basis was quite low (and capital gains were never reported or taxed) there is an illusion (if one is the sort to allow themselves to be fooled by...themselves?) that the money they are spending is "found money". That sort of money spends easier, and having struck gold once encourages the speculator to keep speculating. So I'd argue that much of the non-moving stock you see out there may actually represent considerable present value (a moving target for sure) but not necessarily considerable cost basis to the owner. Both Heritage and ComicLink visibly offer advances against future consignments, and they encourage those advances to be spent in-House at current auction. When that happens, it perpetuates both the illusion of liquidity and propping current prices up (by creating more bidders with more bids to place today).

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

And as for the passage of time, have you seen what the stock market has done this year?

This year yes. Other years, not so much. And some years...whoooosh...is the sound of that gap when sellers (and shorts) overwhelm a dearth of buyers. Collectibles are seen as being (somewhat?) recession/depression-proof under the false assumption that they don't whoooosh down like a highly liquid and visible market does. Well... ...that's perception based on the fact that those assets aren't highly liquid or visibly trading.

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

So, if you know, how do some of the pro's manage their finances? 

I do know. I'm a pro. I sell art (but not comic art, that I only collect )

This pro manages his finances and especially liquidity very carefully. I always have the next twelve months of personal and business expenses including anticipated funds needed to acquire new inventory in the bank. In cash. As long as I've got that (bank balance) number where it needs to be I can roll my sales revenue back into more inventory or have some fun (buy comic art!) If that (bank balance) number is dropping, the next time I sell, I bring it back up again. Forever and always. And that's how I stay in business (and in my home) even when I'm not selling, without having to fire-sale, and still am flush with funds to opportunistically acquire new inventory and outbid others at estate sales and even clean-up at their own fire-sales

Other "pros"...oh who knows, but you can tell how well their plan really worked when they're suddenly here and then even more suddenly...are not. The guys that last, year in and year out, are probably doing exactly or some form of what I'm doing. Art (comic or otherwise) has no inherent value. It's all perception as reality.

[Rick2you2]

On 12/1/2017 at 9:19 AM, vodou said:

I don't think they are surviving, at least not on their flipping activity alone. And by that measure then, they are not professionals. This is especially true if they're not reporting their activity as a business to the IRS. That's a whole separate can of worms and I think a lot of people have much greater audit risk than they think. Coinbase users will soon be finding this out.

You are correct, not liquid at assumed FMV (comps). Nobody knows what long-term results a sustained fire-sale environment would produce. How much stock can a relatively small market absorb before running out of money, interest or both? IMO, that's where the rubber meets the road, where actual value is determined and proven. The rest is just puffery.

It would seem that way, but not necessarily. A lot of money has rotated out of other collectibles (high end comics and cards primarily) and into comic art. A lot of comic art has been sold to buy comic art too. But it's mostly not new (earned income) money, and because the original cost basis was quite low (and capital gains were never reported or taxed) there is an illusion (if one is the sort to allow themselves to be fooled by...themselves?) that the money they are spending is "found money". That sort of money spends easier, and having struck gold once encourages the speculator to keep speculating. So I'd argue that much of the non-moving stock you see out there may actually represent considerable present value (a moving target for sure) but not necessarily considerable cost basis to the owner. Both Heritage and ComicLink visibly offer advances against future consignments, and they encourage those advances to be spent in-House at current auction. When that happens, it perpetuates both the illusion of liquidity and propping current prices up (by creating more bidders with more bids to place today).

This year yes. Other years, not so much. And some years...whoooosh...is the sound of that gap when sellers (and shorts) overwhelm a dearth of buyers. Collectibles are seen as being (somewhat?) recession/depression-proof under the false assumption that they don't whoooosh down like a highly liquid and visible market does. Well... ...that's perception based on the fact that those assets aren't highly liquid or visibly trading.

I do know. I'm a pro. I sell art (but not comic art, that I only collect )

This pro manages his finances and especially liquidity very carefully. I always have the next twelve months of personal and business expenses including anticipated funds needed to acquire new inventory in the bank. In cash. As long as I've got that (bank balance) number where it needs to be I can roll my sales revenue back into more inventory or have some fun (buy comic art!) If that (bank balance) number is dropping, the next time I sell, I bring it back up again. Forever and always. And that's how I stay in business (and in my home) even when I'm not selling, without having to fire-sale, and still am flush with funds to opportunistically acquire new inventory and outbid others at estate sales and even clean-up at their own fire-sales

Other "pros"...oh who knows, but you can tell how well their plan really worked when they're suddenly here and then even more suddenly...are not. The guys that last, year in and year out, are probably doing exactly or some form of what I'm doing. Art (comic or otherwise) has no inherent value. It's all perception as reality.

I'm no pro, but I do have a degree in economics, and what you have described sounds exactly like the way a bubble develops in pricing. The best known example is the infamous Tulip Bulb mania of the 1630's. Basically, people who were interested in some of the newly introduced bulbs drove the price up. That attracted speculators, who bought and flipped them, recording more and more profit as prices went higher, which was reinvested in bulb purchases. The rising prices attracted outside money from people who didn't care about tulips, and they drove the price even higher. Then one day, at the market where they were bought and sold, no one wanted to buy. Crash.  Fortunes were lost.

Those people ought to spend some time watching editions of Antiques Roadshow which revisit estimated prices from, like, 15 years earlier. By my very rough estimate, over a third of the prices were the same or lower. Prices for typical "Persian" rugs have dropped 30% since the 1980's. And who is still out there buying antique marbles or toy trains?

I had originally figured that CA, as an investment vehicle, would probably be okay for no more than 20 years. If this much money is just being re-circulated, maybe 5 or more years would be more accurate.

By the way, I do love this stuff as a hobby. And I expect keep buying it as a hobby.  But if I were looking to make money on future collectibles, I'd probably go with mid-Century Modern furniture (the 60's and up) or pre-IBM PC's. 

 

 

 

 

[lobrac]

Flip of the decade?

5 Peanuts strips on eBay sold for $25K:

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CHARLES-M-SCHULZ-5-PEANUTS-Strips-ORIGINAL-SIGNED-ink-1958-full-week-w-Sunday-/122754988034?hash=item1c94c47802%3Ag%3A~3gAAOSwdTdZ4oOi&nma=true&si=2uOR%252FNN6u%252FazXo4ky32ENeJso0A%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

First one drops on HA in the Feb. 2018 Signature:

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-sunday-comic-strip-charlie-brown-original-art-dated-12-21-58-united/p/7177-52001.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

[Bird]

47 minutes ago, lobrac said:

Flip of the decade?

5 Peanuts strips on eBay sold for $25K:

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CHARLES-M-SCHULZ-5-PEANUTS-Strips-ORIGINAL-SIGNED-ink-1958-full-week-w-Sunday-/122754988034?hash=item1c94c47802%3Ag%3A~3gAAOSwdTdZ4oOi&nma=true&si=2uOR%252FNN6u%252FazXo4ky32ENeJso0A%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

First one drops on HA in the Feb. 2018 Signature:

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-sunday-comic-strip-charlie-brown-original-art-dated-12-21-58-united/p/7177-52001.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

The only way this story gets better is if the ebay buyer sold bitcoin to buy these strips.

[vodou]

30 minutes ago, Bird said:

The only way this story gets better is if the ebay buyer sold bitcoin to buy these strips.

If the eBay seller turned the $25k into BTC that day, also a pretty good story

[-m]

WAR MACHINE Issue #11 Splash Page

 

Comic Connect - 12/04/2017 - $115

CAF - 01/04/2018 - $499

https://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=741315

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1445121