Dueling Detective 27s this spring 1 1

[rob_react]

1 hour ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

With three different Action 1 conserved copy selling at 393K, 450K, 461K in the last one year and a CGC 9.4 super restored for 500K recently, it's actually performing quite well. Perhaps, if you compare to the Heritage 5.5 unrestored, one may be disappointed. In addition, two 5.0's unrestored sold in the north of 650K+ three years ago, so this recent 5.0 unrestored did okay. 

I'm slightly disappointed. The result is in line with the Hertiage book.

The conserved, restored books are a different (albeit resoundingly positive) story. I agree that those results are phenomenal. 

Here's what I wrote

Quote

While it would be interesting enough for one mid-grade Golden Age book to sell for over $1,000,000 after we fell just short in 2016, in my mind there's a chance that both the Action Comics #1 and Detective Comics #27 in the current ComicConnect auction will sell for over $1,000,000.

The case for the Action #1 is clear. A FN 5.5 almost hit $1,000,0000 in 2016, so if the right bidders are in for this one then getting another $44,000, even .5 lower is a real possibility.

The Detective #27 is more interesting. A 5.0 sold for 710,000 in May of 2017. Does another 1 point gain another $290,000? Does the fact that unrestored Detective #27s have been coming up for sale less frequently than Action #1s make a difference? Time will tell!

 

  

[rob_react]

2 hours ago, twmjr1 said:

Said it before: In ten years, people will look back and laugh at the prices presently being paid for T27 and A1. There will come a day (in the not-so-distant future) when ANY complete copy of either, restored books included, will bring $500K plus. I actually think that will happen sooner than ten years hence.

I've been having this same conversation for a long time. There are threads here where talk about the day when all unrestored Action #1s would be $100k books. then it was "when will ALL copies be $100k books." We're at the point now where I just wrote: Soon, All Blue Label Batman #1s Will Be $100,000 Books. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about where we are today. 

[sfcityduck]

Well ... supply and demand matters.

It will be interesting to see what happens as the generation of collectors who started in the 60s continue selling their books.  That will have an obvious impact on supply, and may also impact demand to the extent that those collectors are still buying (and some are). 

The number of individuals who have paid $1 million for a comic is no more than 5 people.  None of the books those people have bought has graded out at less than an 8.0.  Three of the six books sold for $1M+ were top of census.  So its seems overly aggressive to predict, as you (Rob) did, that the 5.0 Action 1 and 6.0 D27 would each hit a million dollars this month.  The Action 1 5.5 sold by Heritage looks more like an outlier now than an indicator. 

I do believe that prices on the low end will be stronger than on the high end for the biggest books. The pool of collectors who can afford the low end prices is just bigger.  I wonder if we'll see a compression of the price spread from low to high grades for the biggest books.

Edited March 23, 2018 by sfcityduck

[showcase22gr1959]

14 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Well ... supply and demand matters.

It will be interesting to see what happens as the generation of collectors who started in the 60s continue selling their books.  That will have an obvious impact on supply, and may also impact demand to the extent that those collectors are still buying (and some are). 

The number of individuals who have paid $1 million for a comic is no more than 5 people.  None of the books those people have bought has graded out at less than an 8.0.  Three of the six books solver for $1M+ were top of census.  So its seems overly aggressive to predict, as you (Rob) did, that the 5.0 Action 1 and 6.0 D27 would each hit a million dollars this month.  The Action 1 5.5 sold by Heritage looks more like an outlier now than an indicator. 

I do believe that prices on the low end will be stronger than on the high end for the biggest books. The pool of collectors who can afford the low end prices is just bigger.  I wonder if we'll see a compression of the price spread from low to high grades for the biggest books.

Rob's insight is warranted, but I mentioned in a post in the past that a minimum Action 1 6.0 blue or a Detective 27 6.5 blue are million books now. From seeing the two books results that ended at CC recently, the Action 1 6.0 is there, but the Detective 27 6.5 blue not yet. The two books had tremendous growth the last five years with double digits ROI is unsustainable. Perhaps, this is a breather for the big two and normal returns is expected. I was very excited to perhaps witness the next possible million dollar book. I agree, entry level for the two is closing the gap on higher grade copies. The mentality to own either trophy books is a privilege for bragging rights. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by showcase22gr1959

[woowoo]

48 minutes ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

Rob's insight is warranted, but I mentioned in a post in the past that a minimum Action 1 6.0 blue or a Detective 27 6.5 blue are million books now. From seeing the two books results that ended at CC recently, the Action 1 6.0 is there, but the Detective 27 6.5 blue not yet. The two books had tremendous growth the last five years with double digits ROI is unsustainable. Perhaps, this is a breather for the big two and normal returns is expected. I was very excited to perhaps witness the next possible million dollar book. I agree, entry level for the two is closing the gap on higher grade copies. The mentality to own either trophy books is a privilege for bragging rights. 

I thought I could get this cheap

https://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=750748

It is now double my bid for this beat up copy

 

[rob_react]

6 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

 The number of individuals who have paid $1 million for a comic is no more than 5 people.  None of the books those people have bought has graded out at less than an 8.0.  Three of the six books solver for $1M+ were top of census.  So its seems overly aggressive to predict, as you (Rob) did, that the 5.0 Action 1 and 6.0 D27 would each hit a million dollars this month.  The Action 1 5.5 sold by Heritage looks more like an outlier now than an indicator. 

To be fair (to me) I didn't predict anything. I speculated about the possibility that both books would do it (which would be novel.) If my speculating about something ("In my mind there's a chance") turns into me making predictions then I'm about to become a lot more boring.   

Edited March 23, 2018 by rob_react
"In my mind there's a chance"

[lou_fine]

On 3/15/2018 at 1:31 PM, rob_react said:

On 3/15/2018 at 1:17 PM, Crowzilla said:

buy both.

Ayman.......is that you? 

[rob_react]

Rob goes on the internet and talks about Action #1 values. Rob wakes up on March 23rd. Rob looks at Scoop.Rob will be talking more about Action #1 values today!

[Crowzilla]

2 hours ago, rob_react said:

Rob goes on the internet and talks about Action #1 values. Rob wakes up on March 23rd. Rob looks at Scoop.Rob will be talking more about Action #1 values today!

It's going to be very fun to watch how that copy does.

According to some Tec 27 apologists on here, the stage is set for that copy to do poorly since so many Action 1s have been sold lately (including one coming up in Heritage next month).  I agree with what Showcase22 wrote above, you just can't expect double digit yearly growth to last forever (especially not with the way the markets have been recently), but it will always be Action 1

[szav]

While we’ll probably  never know it’d be interesting to see the demographics of the people/entities buying the action 1s and tec 27s.

Who is paying 450k for a restored/conserved copy of action one when a blue label 5.0 can be had for less than double that?  Most other books and you’re talking 3-4 times as much or more for a 5.0 vs a restored/conserved copy.

I had been thinking anyone buying a copy of action one had to be a person or corporation worth 10 mil or more, so I’m surprised to see how “low” both these books went in a relative sense.

Maybe the people buying the restored/conserved copies are private collectors spending literally every penny they have and reaching just to get any copy at all, and skewing the results.

 

[jabats]

10 minutes ago, szavisca said:

While we’ll probably  never know it’d be interesting to see the demographics of the people/entities buying the action 1s and tec 27s.

Who is paying 450k for a restored/conserved copy of action one when a blue label 5.0 can be had for less than double that?  Most other books and you’re talking 3-4 times as much or more for a 5.0 vs a restored/conserved copy.

I had been thinking anyone buying a copy of action one had to be a person or corporation worth 10 mil or more, so I’m surprised to see how “low” both these books went in a relative sense.

Maybe the people buying the restored/conserved copies are private collectors spending literally every penny they have and reaching just to get any copy at all, and skewing the results.

 

For sure the "entry level pricing" is at play. 

Put a copy of Tec 27 or Action 1 in the $200k to $300k range and the pool of buyers is a lot deeper than at 500k - 1M.

I also believe the market is shifting in regards to the Conserved label. You use the phrase "restored/conserved copy"... but in my view a Conserved book is much comparable to being a "blue label" than being comparable to a Restored-Extensive label. Just my opinion but I am speaking as a market participant who has put my money where my mouth is :-)

[jabats]

For Golden Age books on my "want list" I actively seek out the Conserved label. I believe it represents very strong value.

Perhaps the market will never agree with me (in which case I'm picking up books I really appreciate, and which seem like a "deal" to me). But I suspect the spread between Conserved and Unrestored will shrink some, over time.

[szav]

2 minutes ago, jabats said:

For sure the "entry level pricing" is at play. 

Put a copy of Tec 27 or Action 1 in the $200k to $300k range and the pool of buyers is a lot deeper than at 500k - 1M.

I also believe the market is shifting in regards to the Conserved label. You use the phrase "restored/conserved copy"... but in my view a Conserved book is much comparable to being a "blue label" than being comparable to a Restored-Extensive label. Just my opinion but I am speaking as a market participant who has put my money where my mouth is :-)

While my personal view is that conserved is no different than restored, and I’m sure some others would agree, it only takes a certain number of people who feel like you do about it to make it the market reality that conserved will bring higher prices, so in that sense you’re probably right.

I do still wonder about the demographics of the buyers and how much deeper that pool of million dollar vs 450k buyers really is.  My hunch is it’s not that different but I don’t really know.

[jabats]

Not to delve too deeply into it but I just believe a lot of “restoration” is subjective. I guess I understand why “staples replaced” is considered resto/conservation, but doing that helps preserve an item that is slowly deteriorating over time (arguably a good thing). Whereas pressing arguably might shorten the lifespan of a book (yet isn’t considered resto).

If everybody thinks “staples replaced” cuts out 50% of the value of a mega key, that’s their opinion, but I do think it presents a value opportunity. Surely some other collectors have similar thoughts, the question is how many, and if that number changes significantly over time.

The Conserved label is still pretty new, I think the market is still sort of trying to figure out how to price it.

[rob_react]

mmmm... rusty staples

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, jabats said:

I also believe the market is shifting in regards to the Conserved label. You use the phrase "restored/conserved copy"... but in my view a Conserved book is much comparable to being a "blue label" than being comparable to a Restored-Extensive label. Just my opinion but I am speaking as a market participant who has put my money where my mouth is :-)

 

54 minutes ago, jabats said:

For Golden Age books on my "want list" I actively seek out the Conserved label. I believe it represents very strong value.

Perhaps the market will never agree with me (in which case I'm picking up books I really appreciate, and which seem like a "deal" to me). But I suspect the spread between Conserved and Unrestored will shrink some, over time.

 

53 minutes ago, szavisca said:

While my personal view is that conserved is no different than restored, and I’m sure some others would agree, it only takes a certain number of people who feel like you do about it to make it the market reality that conserved will bring higher prices, so in that sense you’re probably right.

Definitely an interesting conversation about the potential impact of the Conserved label. 

And in that sense, what are your opinions of the Green Qualified label, especially when it pertains to something like a missing interior piece or a clipped coupon.  Especially since some of these appears to no longer be sitting in the dumpster bin, based upon some of the recent auction results I've seen. 

[sfcityduck]

13 hours ago, rob_react said:

To be fair (to me) I didn't predict anything. I speculated about the possibility that both books would do it (which would be novel.) If my speculating about something ("In my mind there's a chance") turns into me making predictions then I'm about to become a lot more boring.   

To be clear, I don't think there is anything wrong with speculating/predicting, especially if you spur conversation as people agree and disagree with you.  Your website is one of my favorites for comics, so I would never want you to feel you shouldn't voice opinions (no matter how provocative).

[sfcityduck]

2 hours ago, szavisca said:

I had been thinking anyone buying a copy of action one had to be a person or corporation worth 10 mil or more, so I’m surprised to see how “low” both these books went in a relative sense.

 

 

Ayman Hariri, who appears to be lying low right now given issues with family politics/business in Saudi Arabia and with his tech business, is worth over a billion.  I don't think someone worth a mere $10M would (or maybe could) have paid what he did when he made the top two Action 1 purchases.  It's a very shallow pool of buyers at $1M plus, right now limited to five or fewer people.

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by sfcityduck

[rob_react]

17 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

To be clear, I don't think there is anything wrong with speculating/predicting, especially if you spur conversation as people agree and disagree with you.  Your website is one of my favorites for comics, so I would never want you to feel you shouldn't voice opinions (no matter how provocative).

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, rob_react said:

mmmm... rusty staples

This book should be conserved. There is something wrong with a market that would frown on replacing rusty staples.  To me, replacing rusty staples with rust-free vintage staples should increase the book's value.

If it had come up for sale a year and a half after the 2011 9.0, instead of a year and a half before, I really wonder whether it would have garnered $1.5M.  The 2011 9.0 not only was a better looking book with no rusty staples, it had the cache being the lost Cage copy.  And Hariri would not have bid on the 8.5 after he had the 9.0 (whereas he may have been a bidder on this 8.5 copy).  Anyone know who the seller for the 8.5 is?  I also wonder if the seller was the underbidder on the 2011 9.0.