Are comics gaining more respect as a valid investment outside of the comic collecting community? 8 8

[LordRahl]

1 minute ago, ExNihilo said:

Apologies but this is selective reasoning.  You're picking 1 book out of a hundred and you just happen to be picking one of the ones with the greatest value.  If you were to take all books over all time and determine an average gain/loss on "investment" where would you stand?  Do comics as a medium (as a whole) stand up as viable investments?  Everything from AF #15 down to X-Force #1.

It is just as selective as you picking the S&P in 2009 versus now. Sure if you sell your stock in company X right now at the peak, you will likely make a boatload of money. What if you sold in 2008 at the bottom of the market? You have to time stocks in order to make the kind of money a lot of people selectively quote when talking about stock market returns. My point was to illustrate that once you take into account all of the valleys stocks go through, the return over a very long period of time really isn't that impressive. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

18 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

When FF #1 came out in 1961, the DOW was at around 6000. Today it is at around 24,000. If you did nothing but hold for close to 60 years, you would have quadrupled your investment in the stock market. How has FF #1 done in that same time? Oh I know what the argument there is going to be... well the FF #1 just came out and you bought it off the stands at cover price. OK, how has Action #1 done in that same time?

I must point out inflation over the years has devalued US fiat money.

That $6000 was worth more in 1961. $49,635.70 to be exact, so if we use the inflation factor that $6000 was worth more in 1961 than $24,000 in 2018. 

$24,000 now has the same buying power of $2.901.14 in 1961.

Good link here that shows how money back than had way more buying power. 

https://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=6000&year=1961

That's how they get you folks. Fiat money is worth a lot less now than 1950s to 1970s money.

So a lot of these profits really are a lot less do to inflation.

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[LordRahl]

12 minutes ago, skypinkblu said:

So you think people who purchased them off the rack were investing?  I know when I was a kid, I was just buying them to read. That's why they got so scarce, because most people read them and their mother's tossed them...or they were liberated some other way.

What about the cost of an Action 1 now? How would that stand up in time? I know we don't have a time machine, but I can't see it appreciating 300,000 times the original value;) Say you buy a million $ copy, will it be worth that much more in 60 years...I won't be here, so I'll never know;)

You are absolutely correct. The cost of Action 1 now would not lead to the same percentages as if you bought it 60 years ago. How about if you buy a house today? In say San Jose CA. Where a 1200 sq foot house in south San Jose (not a desirable neighborhood) will run you north of a $1M. Houses that prior to the current bubble were selling for $500K or less have more than doubled in a few years. How is that percentage return going to go? Or pretty much any stock you purchase right now which is likely at an all time high?

[ExNihilo]

2 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

It is just as selective as you picking the S&P in 2009 versus now. Sure if you sell your stock in company X right now at the peak, you will likely make a boatload of money. What if you sold in 2008 at the bottom of the market?

For context, here's how I followed up the comparison against the market:

Quote

"Yes, it's probably been one of the greatest bull markets of all time, but the gains from the same period as when OP purchased can't be denied."

So I admitted to there being a bull market and that the markets can change.  Also, I used the S&P500 because it's regarded as an average metric to use to judge the market as a whole since it includes 500+ stocks and covers all sectors.  I fully realized that cherrypicking individual stocks wasn't foolproof evidence to validate my point and figured 500+ was better than 1.  As for the use of 2009, that's because OP referenced buying the book in 2009.

[skypinkblu]

5 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

You are absolutely correct. The cost of Action 1 now would not lead to the same percentages as if you bought it 60 years ago. How about if you buy a house today? In say San Jose CA. Where a 1200 sq foot house in south San Jose (not a desirable neighborhood) will run you north of a $1M. Houses that prior to the current bubble were selling for $500K or less have more than doubled in a few years. How is that percentage return going to go? Or pretty much any stock you purchase right now which is likely at an all time high?

Looks like I can't afford San Jose OR an Action 1... so it might be moot;)

Wouldn't it be nice to have that sneak peek into the future before we buy anything that's worth 10 cents;) ?

Had I only known, I'd have a lot more comics stacked up here than I do now;) Then again, I'd probably read them and they'd be trash.

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by skypinkblu
forgot a question mark

[revat]

13 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

32 minutes ago, revat said:

You're likely paying more in interest than you're earning from your savings account, even with a good mortgage rate.

*Of course consult your own tax specialist or financial planner.

From a financial perspective though, the amount you're paying in interest should actually be irrelevant (or is at least secondary) when determining whether or not to pay off your mortgage.  The more important factor is your opportunity cost.  Can I make more elsewhere than I am having to pay in interest?  The long term average growth financial advisors gun for in the stock market is roughly 7%.  Would I rather pay down my mortgage at 3.5% or would I rather take that money and make 7% on it?  (Yes, the market fluctuates, but if you annualize your returns over an extended amount of time, you should see 7%.  Frankly imo, 7% is average and I think your gains should be higher.)

Now, given all of that, there is something to be said about the peace of mind you get knowing you don't have a mortgage hanging over your head.  That you suddenly have an extra $1,000+ a month to save or spend on whatever you want.  To each their own.

I agree, I'm not suggesting you should just pay it off outright just because you have a huge lump of cash sitting in your savings.  If you have that much in savings, you could be doing more with your money probably.  But if you were planning to drag out mortgage longer BEFORE the tax change to take advantage of the mortgage deduction but are no longer going get value from that deduction, you probably get more better value from paying off your mortgage a little faster.  But yes you might get more value from investing, although there is more risk in that.  That's why I would advocate diversifying and doing a little bit of both.  Investing a little AND paying off your mortgage faster is probably idea.

But that advice is starting to get complicated for these boards I think.  If you can't think of what to do and don't want to think about it too much, just toss another two benjamins on your mortgage payment each month until you think out a better idea.  Or buy more JSC 'Limited' covers.  Pretty much the same thing.

[october]

9 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I must point out inflation over the years has devalued US fiat money.

That $6000 was worth more in 1961. $49,635.70 to be exact, so if we use the inflation factor that $6000 was worth more in 1961 than $24,000 in 2018. 

$24,000 now has the same buying power of $2.901.14 in 1961.

Good link here that shows how money back than had way more buying power. 

https://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=6000&year=1961

That's how they get you folks. Fiat money is worth a lot less now than 1950s to 1970s money.

So a lot of these profits really are a lot less do to inflation.

 

This is true, but I think the post you quoted had a type. The DOW was $600-700 in 1961, not $6000. 

Or the $6000 figure was already inflation adjusted. Either way, inflation does not outpace the DOW gains from that time period.

Edited June 19, 2018 by october

[LordRahl]

1 minute ago, october said:

This is true, but I think the post you quoted had a type. The DOW was 600-700 in 1961, not 6000. 

This says 6,000 not 600. I googled it quickly so if this website is wrong, my apologies.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[ExNihilo]

2 minutes ago, october said:

This is true, but I think the post you quoted had a type. The DOW was 600-700 in 1961, not 6000. 

According to this, it was trading at about 5,500.  The number seemed high, I had to check it myself, but the proof is there.

[ExNihilo]

4 minutes ago, revat said:

Or buy more JSC 'Limited' covers.  Pretty much the same thing.

[october]

Again, those are inflation adjusted numbers. In 1961 the DOW was at or around 600-700 if I was reading a newspaper. 

[ExNihilo]

1 minute ago, october said:

Again, those are inflation adjusted numbers. In 1961 the DOW was at or around 600-700 if I was reading a newspaper. 

Ooooooo.  I think your avatar should read "Member: Seasoned Financial Veteran" 

[ComicConnoisseur]

6 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

According to this, it was trading at about 5,500.  The number seemed high, I had to check it myself, but the proof is there.

Either way $600 or $6,000 we will find the profits are not as good as they seem to be do to inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[october]

1 minute ago, ExNihilo said:

Ooooooo.  I think your avatar should read "Member: Seasoned Financial Veteran" 

Nah. I am one of the dummies who paid off the mortgage rather than investing it. It really is the "smarter" move, but I like living in a house not owned by someone or something else. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

I was thinking this the other day,some people held onto comics for like 40 years, and most don't even break $100. Man, that makes you think. Even if you got one of the lucky keys and it's worth $1000 that still isn't like a big thing for holding something for 40 years.

Better to just collect to read and enjoy them.

Edited June 19, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[october]

6 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Either way $5.550 or $6,000 we will find the profits are not as good as they seem to be do to inflation.

 

The graph already takes inflation into account. In inflation adjusted dollars the DOW returned ~4x over the 1961 to 2018 period. A much different (and more accurate) story than the nominal DOW charts we always see that make it look like $1 invested in 1961 returns a bajillion dollars in 2018.

Edited June 19, 2018 by october

[kav]

2 hours ago, HeyMoe said:

What would make the neighborhood go to hell?

I dont know what makes it happen but what was a nice neighborhood around a shopping mall when I was a kid is now a vacant bombed out mall, dilapidated houses and apartments, broken rusty cars in driveways, garbage, in other words-hell.

[sfcityduck]

Here's a real world example:

March 30, 2010:  Action #1 CGC 8.5 sells for $1.5 million

June 12, 2018:  Action #1 CGC 8.5 sells for $2,052,000

That's a 36.8% return over 8 years, 2 1/2 months (3.89% annualized), for one of the most desirable books in the entire hobby (23.1% if there was a full 10% commission; 30.0% if there was a reduced 5% commission, which works out to 2.56% and 3.24% annualized, respectively).  Minus any applicable taxes as well, of course.  And if you're really nitpicky, you could adjust down for inflation.

In any event, 2.5% to 3.9% a year for an object that brings you great joy is a huge huge bonus. 

If its your retirement account?  Then you might be sad that you weren't invested in stocks during that same time period.

 

[kimik]

19 hours ago, FSF said:

I would buy that notion if I thought that there were a lot of young folks subscribing.  Maybe there are and I'm just not aware.  They certainly aren't buying at the brick and mortars.

They still are, but more are going to the TPB or digital formats to read new books. What I have seen over the past 5 - 7 years at shows is a rising amount of young/new collectors in the 15 - 30 age range who only buy keys. Run fillers are either older collectors or those with limited budgets. I have been doing shows since 1997 when I was in university and the hobby has never been healthier in Alberta. There are a ton of collectors willing to spend $$$ on keys. The hardest part is replacing them. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by kimik

[october]

There are a ton of new back issue collectors in the 20-40 age bracket, many of them spending serious money. If you aren't seeing them you are looking in the wrong places. Younger guys aren't going to the LCS to buy a TOS 39, and many of them probably don't post much on this board. They are going to Facebook and Instagram. I am a dinosaur on the latter at the age of 37.