How to differentiate fact from misleading hyperbole in the OSPG Market Reports 3 3

[NoMan]

I'm curious how one does this. Is it at all conspiratorial to think that certain Market Report authors are hyping what they have and hope to sell similar to the pump & dump that is sometimes perpetuated here? As mentioned by someone here in an earlier OSPG thread, Dr. Steven Kahn (first time adviser to the Guide and his first market report appears in the 2018 edition) has a great read in his Market Report. 

Anyways, how does a relative newcomer to the hobby differentiate fact from hype in the OSPG Market Reports?

[chrisco37]

Just picked up my copy Friday, so I haven’t read all the reports yet.  So far, I haven’t read any reports saying Classics Illustrated are moving (which used to be a staple in some reports).  

[Mmehdy]

look at actual sales prices..not the hype...GPA etc

[FSF]

Some general comments:

1) Always take "market reports" from any dealer of any collectible with a HUGE grain of salt.

2) If you ask people here, "What is a good comic investment?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

3) If you ask people here, "What books are undervalued?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

4) If you ask people here, "What books are the best to collect?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

 

 

[oakman29]

52 minutes ago, FSF said:

Some general comments:

1) Always take "market reports" from any dealer of any collectible with a HUGE grain of salt.

2) If you ask people here, "What is a good comic investment?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

3) If you ask people here, "What books are undervalued?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

4) If you ask people here, "What books are the best to collect?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

 

 

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, FSF said:

Some general comments:

1) Always take "market reports" from any dealer of any collectible with a HUGE grain of salt.

2) If you ask people here, "What is a good comic investment?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

3) If you ask people here, "What books are undervalued?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

4) If you ask people here, "What books are the best to collect?", it's the same as asking, "What do you own and like to collect?"

 

 

Hmmm, sounds like a great new section of the 2019 OSPG: What do you own and like to collect?

Would the only prices listed in the guide be those of books the advisers own and collect? Would all the other books just have a blank space where the prices go? Maybe the wording: Nobody owns and collects these books. 

[alexgross.com]

4 hours ago, NoMan said:

I'm curious how one does this. Is it at all conspiratorial to think that certain Market Report authors are hyping what they have and hope to sell similar to the pump & dump that is sometimes perpetuated here? As mentioned by someone here in an earlier OSPG thread, Dr. Steven Kahn (first time adviser to the Guide and his first market report appears in the 2018 edition) has a great read in his Market Report. 

Anyways, how does a relative newcomer to the hobby differentiate fact from hype in the OSPG Market Reports?

its such a good question, i noticed this too after getting the guide for a couple of years. i think reading the wide diversity of opinion on different books and different genres here on this forum is very helpful in distinguishing who's pumping their own stuff in overstreet and here as well. also watching sales threads can be most enlightening. for example, i knew nothing about the market for sci-fi GA books such as planet comics. a few dealers write about it in overstreet but it doesnt get a ton of hype. but when someone like ricksneatstuff does a sale of planet comics here on the forum, you can really see just how strong a collector base there is for it. that's just one example. and to be clear i do not collect them and own zero copies, so i'm not pumping my own stuff! but if you watch all the sales threads, you can see what books move, and what books dont. of course much of that has to do with pricing too...

[01TheDude]

18 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Hmmm, sounds like a great new section of the 2019 OSPG: What do you own and like to collect?

Would the only prices listed in the guide be those of books the advisers own and collect? Would all the other books just have a blank space where the prices go? Maybe the wording: Nobody owns and collects these books. 

no -- that would be the Overstreet Soduko Guide

[01TheDude]

2 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

its such a good question, i noticed this too after getting the guide for a couple of years. i think reading the wide diversity of opinion on different books and different genres here on this forum is very helpful in distinguishing who's pumping their own stuff in overstreet and here as well. also watching sales threads can be most enlightening. for example, i knew nothing about the market for sci-fi GA books such as planet comics. a few dealers write about it in overstreet but it doesnt get a ton of hype. but when someone like ricksneatstuff does a sale of planet comics here on the forum, you can really see just how strong a collector base there is for it. that's just one example. and to be clear i do not collect them and own zero copies, so i'm not pumping my own stuff! but if you watch all the sales threads, you can see what books move, and what books dont. of course much of that has to do with pricing too...

I get your idea here but with the Planet comics books-- isn't that a case of those books being both rare and in high grade with a great deal of the people interested in them on these forums? That is to say the results you see here are not always representative of the hobby as a whole-- but more about the advanced level collector market. Maybe I am confused or being confusing but should any general market type reports ever be taken too seriously?

 

[NoMan]

49 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

I get your idea here but with the Planet comics books-- isn't that a case of those books being both rare and in high grade with a great deal of the people interested in them on these forums? That is to say the results you see here are not always representative of the hobby as a whole-- but more about the advanced level collector market. Maybe I am confused or being confusing but should any general market type reports ever be taken too seriously?

 

I try not to take anything very seriously, however, why not take a long time OSPG advisers thoughts seriously? I would imagine they'd have to be learned and experienced to get to the position of adviser or is that thinking similar to the thinking that politicians must be smart to become public representatives?

Edited July 29, 2018 by NoMan

[jools&jim]

9 hours ago, NoMan said:

Anyways, how does a relative newcomer to the hobby differentiate fact from hype in the OSPG Market Reports?

Such an easy answer: don't buy a "price guide" which is largely irrelevant these days.  And if you do buy it, don't read the dopey market reports!

I mean, who gives a toss what a bunch of so-called "experts" think?  

Buy what you dig, love, and can afford.  

If you make a little scratch on it down the line, great.

If not, you've still got a collection that means something TO YOU!

That's the real "money" -- the one genuinely important thing the "experts" can't and shouldn't advise you on, and the one thing they can never take away from you, either.

Screw 'em.  Do your own thing...

Edited July 30, 2018 by jools&jim

[Ken Aldred]

4 hours ago, NoMan said:

I would imagine they'd have to be learned and experienced to get to the position of adviser

The appointment of Robert Crestohl as an advisor, as discussed in another thread here, indicates flaws in their vetting process; if they actually have much of one to begin with.

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Ken Aldred

[NoMan]

2 hours ago, Ken Aldred said:

The appointment of Robert Crestohl as an advisor, as discussed in another thread here, indicates flaws in their vetting process; if they actually have much of one to begin with.

 

Ok. Thanks for the heads up 

[Jeffro.]

19 hours ago, NoMan said:

I'm curious how one does this. Is it at all conspiratorial to think that certain Market Report authors are hyping what they have and hope to sell similar to the pump & dump that is sometimes perpetuated here? As mentioned by someone here in an earlier OSPG thread, Dr. Steven Kahn (first time adviser to the Guide and his first market report appears in the 2018 edition) has a great read in his Market Report. 

Anyways, how does a relative newcomer to the hobby differentiate fact from hype in the OSPG Market Reports?

I'm more concerned about those market reports that are so short and sparse that they barely say anything of value. One wonders why they are included at all?

[jason4]

I think they’re fun to read. It’s my favorite part of the guide. It’s more fun to read opinions and reports on things than just looking at the numbers.

If they skew something and it’s not true just check out if it’s true or not by looking at what the books are really selling for before buying.

[alexgross.com]

19 hours ago, NoMan said:

I try not to take anything very seriously, however, why not take a long time OSPG advisers thoughts seriously? 

because of bias, as mentioned at the beginning of this post. many advisors clearly are trying to promote their own stuff. doesnt mean everyone does that, but it clearly occurs. 

i used to collect coins and there is a whole forum dedicated to the particular field of coins i collected. there, you could be banned from the online forum for too obviously trying to 'pump and dump' your own stuff. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The way to differentiate fact from self-interest is to look at the evidence. People interested in the truth will present independent evidence to corroborate their claims. People who are only interested in self-promotion...won't. 

Doesn't matter what anyone says...if it can't be independently verified, it's just opinion. Evidence is the key.

One person hyping Fantastical Comics #673? Maybe legitimate, but probably not.

Four people from different areas of the country doing so? More chance of being legitimate.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

I kinda enjoy the market reports, even though they're subject to self-interest and hyperbole.

What I DO take issue with is the actual data.  To me, a list like this doesn't represent reality and is totally useless to me.  This is the main reason why I stopped buying the guide.

Seriously???

 

[valiantman]

2 hours ago, Ditch Fahrenheit said:

I kinda enjoy the market reports, even though they're subject to self-interest and hyperbole.

What I DO take issue with is the actual data.  To me, a list like this doesn't represent reality and is totally useless to me.  This is the main reason why I stopped buying the guide.

Seriously???

 

Those are the Overstreet prices for raw 9.2 condition books.  Which ones are totally useless as raw 9.2 prices?

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

13 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Those are the Overstreet prices for raw 9.2 condition books.  Which ones are totally useless as raw 9.2 prices?

I don't have a problem with the prices per se, although I could quibble.  Example:

1993 DC Comics The Batman Adventures #12 1st Appearance of Harley Quinn 9.2 ($423.13 on 6/22/18)

This is actually a 6% drop from the 2017 price, rather than a 5.5% increase.  And yes, I know 2017 is an average.

 

My issue is with the list.  Do you see anything missing?  Example: Where's NYX #3? (currently selling for about $314 raw in 9.2 grade) Why is Peter Panzerfaust #1 even on the list? Etc., Etc. 

Then you could get into the whole raw/slab, grades above 9.2 thing.   What use is a list of 9.2 raws when most modern collectors are laser focused on 9.8 slabs?

The bottom line, does this REALLY represent The Top 20 Modern Age Comics?  Personally, I don't think it does.  What are your thoughts?