Let's Just Say You Had $50K 4 4

[1950's war comics]

Would buy Baker romance classic covers 

[Phantalien]

!   In 25 years I will be old so I imagine the market would lean toward what was popular when I was young (25 years ago today).    Highest graded first appearance of Spawn, Bone, and Turok.   I would also want to include  IH181 because of Wolverine and whatever is leftover would net me a Tec 31, 33, or 35 because everyone likes Batman.

[PunisherPunisherPunisher]

ASM 129 ....9.8

ASM 194 ....9.8

FF 5...high grade

BA 12 .... 9.8

FF 52.....9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buzzetta]

I am buying another AF15

Maybe a couple of Hulk 181's because every time we agree the book has peaked we are wrong and the book continues to jump up in price. 

Another ASM 1

 

 

[Azkaban]

I would pay off my house 

[dupont2005]

4 hours ago, bc said:

The big issue in this hypothetical exercise is the duration. If we put the entire $50K into an investment tool that yields 5% for 25 years - that would amount to $169K and change at maturity.

So the selected comics would have to triple in value over the same time frame.

Adamantium is probably right with the IH181 and GSXM1 (but I'd focus on multiples in the G/VG/F range, not the higher grades) that would appeal to "entry-level" collectors.

Isn't there some kind of 25 year rule with collectibles - something like people develop nostalgia (and have disposable income) about collectibles that are 25+ years old? That could mean this current run of MCU characters are back in demand. Or maybe it's the current crop of video game consoles/games or "original" Apple smartphones 

I don’t think today’s movie hype is going to influence comic values any more than the movie hype of Tim Burton’s Batman influences values today. 

[newshane]

5 hours ago, Lethal_Collector said:

Which book or books (regardless of age, up to 5 lets say) would you buy that you think will yield the best results 25 years later, and why?

 

Jerome

From an investment standpoint, all of the blue-chip Marvel Key first appearances I could afford because of the long-term cultural impact. That means I'd probably have to go with low to mid grade copies working with a 50K budget. I would prefer to diversify instead of going with fewer high grade examples. 

 

[Lazyboy]

7 hours ago, Lethal_Collector said:

Which book or books (regardless of age, up to 5 lets say) would you buy that you think will yield the best results 25 years later, and why?

 

Jerome

25 years? My money isn't going into comics, especially in this insane market.

[Lethal_Collector]

54 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

25 years? My money isn't going into comics, especially in this insane market.

This is an interesting point, along with what some have mentioned earlier about low to mid grade books for entry level collectors.

I relate the comic value industry to the housing industry in a few similar ways.  Entry level homes will typically always sell as more people look to get into home ownership.  And, those that are home owners and want to upgrade have equity built up (and savings I'm sure) to upgrade their house.  And looking back to the days where a house was $10,000, those days are long gone.  Do I think the housing market can collapse?  Sure, its possible, who knows, but people keep doing it anyway because the perceived risk is out-weighed by the expected appreciation.  Whether that is inflation, cost of living, supply, demand, whatever.  Overtime, house prices have gone up, yes there have been dips, crashes, spikes, that's the risk.  

I think comics behave in the same way, history can be an indicator of future success/failure.  If someone believes a book to be at a great price, they'll probably snag it.  If it's a super-mega-ultra-key, or whatever the cool kids call them these days, I think there will always be a demand for them, enough to offset the risk.  It'd probably take a catastrophic economic failure for comic values to plummet, like another great depression.  Again, sure, it could happen.  

So, back to your point about the insane market.  Have we always thought the market was insane along the way, how many ceilings did we burst through over the years?  We are dealing with collectibles and collectors, a recipe for record sales over and over, until it collapses.  If that happens, yes, it would've been better to have cash-money in the bank, rather than losing X amount in comics.

No risk it, no biscuit?  

 

Jerome

[oakman29]

4 hours ago, Azkaban said:

I would pay off my house 

Bingo!

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, Phantalien said:

!   In 25 years I will be old so I imagine the market would lean toward what was popular when I was young (25 years ago today).    Highest graded first appearance of Spawn, Bone, and Turok.   I would also want to include  IH181 because of Wolverine and whatever is leftover would net me a Tec 31, 33, or 35 because everyone likes Batman.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but even CGC 1.0 graded entry level copies of 'Tec 31 have been selling in the mid $30K to mid $40K price range for the past few years.  

So, I strongly doubt you will have very much left over to pick up many of the other books on your list if you go after a 'Tec 31.  

Edited May 31, 2019 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, dupont2005 said:

I don’t think today’s movie hype is going to influence comic values any more than the movie hype of Tim Burton’s Batman influences values today. 

+1

I would definitely agree with you here and that is why I would avoid all of the movie hype related books which often tends to run its course in terms of demand pretty quickly. 

Especially in the case of the common books which only has transitory value in uber high grade condition and not much value in anything lower than that. 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

5 hours ago, Lethal_Collector said:

So, back to your point about the insane market.  Have we always thought the market was insane along the way, how many ceilings did we burst through over the years?  We are dealing with collectibles and collectors, a recipe for record sales over and over, until it collapses.  If that happens, yes, it would've been better to have cash-money in the bank, rather than losing X amount in comics.

 

I love your point about the housing market, and agree entirely.  And yes you are right:  the comics market could go bust, and our books lose their market, and we all starve.  I know we keep busting thru ceilings with the prices, and I think it’s all gotta end somewhere, But what a ride its been!!!!

[bb8]

17 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I love your point about the housing market, and agree entirely.  And yes you are right:  the comics market could go bust, and our books lose their market, and we all starve.  I know we keep busting thru ceilings with the prices, and I think it’s all gotta end somewhere, But what a ride its been!!!!

Comparing comics to houses is ridiculous. If the comic market busts, you're left with old paper. If the housing market busts, you're left with shelter, storage, running water, electricity, etc etc et al.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

17 minutes ago, bb8 said:

Comparing comics to houses is ridiculous. If the comic market busts, you're left with old paper. If the housing market busts, you're left with shelter, storage, running water, electricity, etc etc et al.

Not disputing that point, at all. I agree entirely.

The comparison is this:  entry level copies of the big books have more bidders simply because there are more people who can swim at that end of the pool.  As a result, entry level houses, like entry level copies of the bigger books, get an artificially higher dollar per square foot(for houses), and price per point(for comics).  Once you’ve gotten you first house, or your first big book, you now have some equity with which to trade up to a better house, or a better copy of a big book.  The buyers who come straight out of the gate, mostly do not have the means to jump straight to the bigger houses or the better copies of the bigger books.

You can look at the PPP on Cap 1, Bat 1, any of those.  I guarantee you, that relative to the higher graded copies, the lower level(entry level, if you will), command a higher PPP.  That’s because you have 10 bidders who can afford to bid at the lower levels, for every 2 who can afford to bid at the higher levels.

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

I thought this would be more fun than a "what would you 'invest' in" thread.

Disappoint.

[1Cool]

No way I'm investing in comics with a 25 hold time period.  I'll be turning 71 at that point and I do not think even the keys will increase in price compared to a good mutual fund will net over the next 25 years.  Heck - I'd rather put a large down payment on a rental property in a nice neighborhood near the lake then buy comics that I've got to hold onto for 2 and a half decades.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

Good lord. Some people have lost their sense of fun. I guess there’s room for everyone in this hobby

[BlowUpTheMoon]

I had $50,000?  What did I do with it? 

[theCapraAegagrus]

Just now, BlowUpTheMoon said:

I had $50,000?  What did I do with it? 

Paid off your mortgage..?