Timing the sale/purchase of comics to movie releases? 1 1

[XxSpideyxX]

For the past few years, we have seen a lot of activity with comics that have associated movies with them.  For example, we saw a lot of ASM 13 (Mysterio) issues around the time of Spider-Man: Far From Home and ASM 300 around the time of Venom.

The same with may be said for nearly every comic movie both released and in the works (Eternals, Sinister Six, etc).  The list goes on and on.

I'm curious if anyone has done any significant research to determine when an associated book becomes "hottest" as it relates to the movie release?  For example...does a book's value peak before the movie release as the hype grows, or is the value greatest after the movie has been released to the general public?  Does the value of the book fall after the movie goes away?

It would be interesting to track comics sales of something like ASM 13 from the announcement of Far From Home, through the release to see when the book peaked and how they relates to other similar issues like ASM 300 and Lethal Protector 1 (Venom) or Fantastic Four 52 (Black Panther) as they tracked from the announcement, through the release of their associated movies.

 

This way, for those who may be sitting on first appearances of rumored heroes or villains in upcoming movies, they may know best when to put them on the market or when those who may like to own them may determine the best time to make the purchases.

 

 

 

 

 

[F For Fake]

The best time to buy is before anyone cares about them.

The best time to sell is when everyone cares about them.

I tend to do the reverse.

[revat]

There is value, but it’s possible the people who have the best info got it from their own research and experience, and are hesitant to give the info away for free to random internet strangers who might be competitors.

but the points would be interesting.

[XxSpideyxX]

2 hours ago, F For Fake said:

The best time to buy is before anyone cares about them.

The best time to sell is when everyone cares about them.

I tend to do the reverse.

Yes, exactly.  So I guess to put my question more succinctly, when do statistics SHOW that people care?  I don't have a GPA subscription, but it would be interested to correlate monthly sales data with a movie's announcement, production, and release calendar.  And measure that across maybe the past 5 years worth of Marvel/DC movies and see if there is a correlation.  A lot of work, for sure.  But potentially worth it for those who have investment interests. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by XxSpideyxX

[thunsicker]

3 hours ago, revat said:

There is value, but it’s possible the people who have the best info got it from their own research and experience, and are hesitant to give the info away for free to random internet strangers who might be competitors.

but the points would be interesting.

While I would be happy to share this information if I had it, there is none-the-less a corollary to this.  The minute enough people had this formula it would no longer work.  Let’s say you figure out the prices peaked two weeks before the reviews drop, or one week after wide release, or whatever the optimal time was.  If everyone started dumping at that point the peak price would suddenly be one week before everyone started dumping it.

Edited February 5, 2020 by thunsicker

[paperheart]

bulls make $, pigs get slaughtered.

[mattn792]

4 hours ago, XxSpideyxX said:

Yes, exactly.  So I guess to put my question more succinctly, when do statistics SHOW that people care?  I don't have a GPA subscription, but it would be interested to correlate monthly sales data with a movie's announcement, production, and release calendar.  And measure that across maybe the past 5 years worth of Marvel/DC movies and see if there is a correlation.  A lot of work, for sure.  But potentially worth it for those who have investment interests. 

So you would like someone to do all the work for you, and then share that information for free?

[Lazyboy]

3 hours ago, thunsicker said:

While I would be happy to share this information if I had it, there is none-the-less a corollary to this.  The minute enough people had this formula it would no longer work.  Let’s say you figure out the prices peaked two weeks before the reviews drop, or one week after wide release, or whatever the optimal time was.  If everyone started dumping at that point the peak price would suddenly be one week before everyone started dumping it.

Plus, it's not an exact science anyway. Some things get more attention at different times for various reasons.

[Von Cichlid]

3 hours ago, thunsicker said:

While I would be happy to share this information if I had it, there is none-the-less a corollary to this.  The minute enough people had this formula it would no longer work.  Let’s say you figure out the prices peaked two weeks before the reviews drop, or one week after wide release, or whatever the optimal time was.  If everyone started dumping at that point the peak price would suddenly be one week before everyone started dumping it.

I get that.  It's kind of like quantum mechanics.  The act of measuring a particle's position forces it into a position that it would not necessarily be in if its position were not being measured in the first place. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Von Cichlid

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, XxSpideyxX said:

For example...does a book's value peak before the movie release as the hype grows, or is the value greatest after the movie has been released to the general public?  Does the value of the book fall after the movie goes away?

Yes, No, and Yes in almost all cases, except when it's No, Yes, and No, or any other combination of the aforementioned.   

[XxSpideyxX]

11 hours ago, mattn792 said:

So you would like someone to do all the work for you, and then share that information for free?

Unfortunately I don't have a subscription to GPA.  I'm not a comic investor.  In fact, I own just 9 comics (all Spider-Man) that I bought because they are all of sentimental value to me, nothing more.  But, if I were someone who collected for investment purposes, I would look closely at any movie/media correlations to see if any exist.  So I posted this question because I was curious if some has done such a study.  I can't imagine it would take very long, but I'm unwilling to purchase a GPA subscription just for my own curiosity   

[XxSpideyxX]

 

 

12 hours ago, thunsicker said:

While I would be happy to share this information if I had it, there is none-the-less a corollary to this.  The minute enough people had this formula it would no longer work.  Let’s say you figure out the prices peaked two weeks before the reviews drop, or one week after wide release, or whatever the optimal time was.  If everyone started dumping at that point the peak price would suddenly be one week before everyone started dumping it.

 

9 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Plus, it's not an exact science anyway. Some things get more attention at different times for various reasons.

I certainly agree with the overarching sentiment of both of your comments.  That being said, I would argue that every investment market has relatively "ballpark" trends that may be used as a guide for "purchase/sell" windows of opportunity.  Moreover, I would offer that nearly every other investment market has far more sophisticated and readily available data and reports to those participating in the field.   And, as far as I know, such data doesn't drastically impact those said markets to the point that they numbers no longer qualify.  

The most simple idea I can think of would be real estate.  This market, like comics, has trends and ups and downs.  But there are still readily available reports and guides on when to buy and sell a home (https://www.quickenloans.com/learn/best-time-to-buy-a-house).  While there is certainly a lot of variance in every market, there is enough similarity to make reports like these readily available and don't cause the market to bottom out simply because they are accessible to anyone taking the time to research.

We should also consider that the majority of comic sales are happening on places like Ebay where I'm doubting the average buyer would track down and visit this particular thread or any similar location where such a correlation guide may be shared.  

So perhaps this idea is still worth visiting?

[1Cool]

Are you asking when it's best to sell a movie hot book?  There appears to be a couple spikes throughout the process but nothing is set in stone.  Most books get a large bump when the movie (show) is announced but the books settles pretty quickly.  Then it spikes again when the first promo comes out which can be even higher then the initial spike (rarely it can jump but not as high as before).  Then the media blitz hits and the general public starts knowing about the upcoming project and the book can really sky rocket but you are playing with fire at this point since the book usually does a nose dive after the movie comes out.  So you can hold it until the last minute and risk a sell off after the movie coming out.  There are rare times like FF 52 or The Boys 1 where the book actually climbs even higher after the release but that is rare.  It works really well if you buy pre hype and sell at the initial spike.  Buy it again when it comes back down and then sell it when the promo hits.  Hopefully you can buy it again when it falls thru the crack in an auction and then sell it right before the show.  Hope this helps.

Edited February 5, 2020 by 1Cool

[Krismusic]

17 hours ago, F For Fake said:

The best time to buy is before anyone cares about them.

The best time to sell is when everyone cares about them.

I tend to do the reverse.

i have this problem as well sometimes i buy them before anyone cares about them.. but not to often. also my problem is I dont sell them  

[comicginger1789]

"I don't know when the best time to sell is but I can tell you it was NOT back in 1983 when trading a Hulk 181 for a stack of baseball cards with a friend."

- Most collectors feelings when thinking back about books they had

[Krismusic]

1 minute ago, comicginger1789 said:

"I don't know when the best time to sell is but I can tell you it was NOT back in 1983 when trading a Hulk 181 for a stack of baseball cards with a friend."

- Most collectors feelings when thinking back about books they had

this is why you should never sell..  

MY PRECIOUS!!!!

[Krismusic]

But sometimes you just have to

[theCapraAegagrus]

Basicallyyyyyyyy...

Don't buy hype.

[XxSpideyxX]

1 hour ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

Basicallyyyyyyyy...

Don't buy hype.

But it's okay to sell hype, right ? 

Spoiler

Spoiler

Yes.

 

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

1 minute ago, XxSpideyxX said:

But it's okay to sell hype, right ? 

  Hide contents

  Hide contents

Yes.

 

 

There is nothing in either of those spoiler tags... I am confused...

I mean, it's "okay" for buyers and sellers to do whatever. I wouldn't buy hype. I don't sell comics, either.