GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020
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34 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Say you want Cap 1 and the condition you want it in current market is 80K....well contact them and let know 40K cash if one comes up or they know somebody who has one

Yep... its a great time to lowball panicked people if you have the money to do so.

Despite the Dow Jones going down, money is neither created nor destroyed by any of what's happening in the stock market right now.  It's just being transferred... from panickers to patient people who can ride this out for a year or two, after which time I expect a full recovery.  The same is true of the GA market.

I always wish I had more money saved up, but man I really wish I had it now.  Great time to buy everything, because while the coronavirus pandemic/panic is terrible and serious, it doesn't even approach world ending crisis status.  In the US its good to sort of see both political sides coming together on this now.  We'll beat this in time.

 

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Posted (edited)

Things may come back at some point, but stock values were high even with the anticipated growth rates due to low interest rates and corporate buybacks. Now the growth rates are going to be negative to slow for awhile, that affects free cash flow, and risk is high … so valuations will be down and some industries will stay down (brick and mortar retail didn't need another kick in the pants). The loss of growth is due to loss consumer confidence, shock/transition in the service job market, hence less business investment, disruption of future trade relationships and supply chains, and possible future change in behavior (how many retired people will be going on trips and some are holding off retirement now). Anyways how much down is the 64 million (6.4 trillion) dollar question, but the stock market and the economy certainly wont be like the good ol days for many many years. IMO Govt intervention and early vaccine can help for a soft landing but ultimately this is not a quick recovery (took 2-3 years to stabilize last crash) except if you are in the teleconferencing, cloud computing, grocery, automation sectors.  

For reference I have a front row seat to what was the hottest local (Seattle) economy and coronavirus. There are some winners like Amazon buts lots of companies like Starbucks, Expedia, Boeing, and Local businesses who are getting devastated long-term in terms of earnings. All expansion plans are off and layoffs are likely coming. Local small business already have started.

That being said I like holding on to my collection as it wasn't created primarily to store wealth although it does, and unless I lost my Job (knock on wood) I don't need nor want to sell. 

 

 

Edited by Changer

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On 3/14/2020 at 8:49 AM, Ryan. said:

I'm still buying. Hopefully I'm not being naive. 

Same. But it's because the books I look for only come on auction once every year or two. Honestly, on the GA side, nothing's really seemed to change yet.

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6 hours ago, szav said:
7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Say you want Cap 1 and the condition you want it in current market is 80K....well contact them and let know 40K cash if one comes up or they know somebody who has one

Yep... its a great time to lowball panicked people if you have the money to do so.

Well, if I have packs of toilet paper sitting in my garage from sales in years past, would that qualify as lowballing it or paying top dollar in this new age?  lol

How many packs of minty fresh unopened packs of nice soft toilet paper for a Cap 1.  hm   :takeit:

Edited by lou_fine

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2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, if I have packs of toilet paper sitting in my garage from sales in years past, would that qualify as lowballing it or paying top dollar in this new age?  lol

How many packs of minty fresh unopened packs of nice soft toilet paper for a Cap 1.  hm   :takeit:

While I’m well acquainted with the intricacies of supply side economics and current priority placed on TP, I suspect this venture can only end with Captain Corncob for you, Lou.

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Posted (edited)

All in all I am positive for the west (especially for the USA. You have the best geostrategy). This crisis is like a catharsis. Many mistakes that have been made in the last decades will be corrected. Jobs and production that have been lost to China and other countries will be brought back. Open border politic will be reversed. In the long term this will have a very positive effect on the western countries.

But nevertheless we will have to go to a time of crisis und upheaval that will last up to 2 to 3 years. And in every crisis there are many opportunities.

To all who say: Prices are high now I can say: Its just the beginning. Most people only start to realize whats coming. I think the bottom will be reached next year when most people will be hopeless (and again I dont mean the virus, if a virus kills one million it doesnt do a dent, I mean the economy). Timing is everything.

Merkel: She destroys everything she touches. I hope she will be gone soon.

 

 

Edited by GermanFan

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Szav. I remember an australian boardie putting a cgc blue AF15 on the boards for sale around 2007. I cant remember the grade. Around 4.0 for I cant remember the price 3.5 k? Anyway it was a geat deal. A boardie asked: "Why do you do it?" And he answered: "Better than going bankrupt". I thought hard about buying it. Didnt do it. Mistake.

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8 hours ago, William-James88 said:

Same. But it's because the books I look for only come on auction once every year or two. Honestly, on the GA side, nothing's really seemed to change yet.

Granted I've taken some long breaks from the hobby,  but there are books on my want list that I have never seen offered with the grade and page quality that I'm looking for. I doubt I'll see any of them in this soft market, but I can hope.

The hard part will be passing up the good deals I see this year and waiting for the better deals I'll see next year.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

Granted I've taken some long breaks from the hobby,  but there are books on my want list that I have never seen offered with the grade and page quality that I'm looking for. I doubt I'll see any of them in this soft market, but I can hope.

The hard part will be passing up the good deals I see this year and waiting for the better deals I'll see next year.

But we don't know if that will even happen. Your first statement reminds me of my quest for Detective Comics 73. I would love it if I could find it for cheap, but I have serious doubt of that.

Edited by William-James88

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I started collecting SA/GA back in 2003. When the financial crisis hit in 2008, it was definitely panic mode for me. I had basically invested 2/3 of my savings in comic books and didn't own a property at the time. I also noticed several prominent CGC board members selling off their collections, which made me even more worried. I still remember sitting up one night deciding whether to just sell everything and take a considerable loss, keep collecting, or take a break. I ultimately decided to take a 6 month break and keep my collection, while concentrating on other things. My thought process was that if at the end of the day I wind up losing around $30K (factoring in the gains I had made between 2003-2008), it was still worth owning all these great books. I figured that if the market just stabilized, I would be willing to take this 30K hit if I could stretch it over 15 years. That way I could justify spending $2K a year collecting the books I love, just like I did when I was spending $600 a year back in the 90's collecting modern junk on a much smaller budget. Of course, the market rebounded and the rest is history. 

With all that being said, I still had to sell 80% of my collection 5 years later when the unmentioned financial crisis came along..........................marriage. :(

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12 minutes ago, skybolt said:

I started collecting SA/GA back in 2003. When the financial crisis hit in 2008, it was definitely panic mode for me. I had basically invested 2/3 of my savings in comic books and didn't own a property at the time. I also noticed several prominent CGC board members selling off their collections, which made me even more worried. I still remember sitting up one night deciding whether to just sell everything and take a considerable loss, keep collecting, or take a break. I ultimately decided to take a 6 month break and keep my collection, while concentrating on other things. My thought process was that if at the end of the day I wind up losing around $30K (factoring in the gains I had made between 2003-2008), it was still worth owning all these great books. I figured that if the market just stabilized, I would be willing to take this 30K hit if I could stretch it over 15 years. That way I could justify spending $2K a year collecting the books I love, just like I did when I was spending $600 a year back in the 90's collecting modern junk on a much smaller budget. Of course, the market rebounded and the rest is history. 

With all that being said, I still had to sell 80% of my collection 5 years later when the unmentioned financial crisis came along..........................marriage. :(

It depends on what you collect. I have many GA books that would be hard to replace in the same grade, so I'm not about to sell them. If I were a SA Marvel collector, I would cash out right now, buy into the stock market—which will recover more quickly than collectibles markets—cash out of that in three-to-six months, and then re-build my collection at a discount.

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4 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It depends on what you collect. I have many GA books that would be hard to replace in the same grade, so I'm not about to sell them. If I were a SA Marvel collector, I would cash out right now, buy into the stock market—which will recover more quickly than collectibles markets—cash out of that in three-to-six months, and then re-build my collection at a discount.

From a financial perspective that certainly makes sense. However, if I sell my 8.0 copy of ASM #1 now, there's no way I'll be able to convince my wife to buy it back a year later at that cost, even if I can show the profit gains. :)

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9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, if I have packs of toilet paper sitting in my garage from sales in years past, would that qualify as lowballing it or paying top dollar in this new age?  lol

How many packs of minty fresh unopened packs of nice soft toilet paper for a Cap 1.  hm   :takeit:

Better sell that toilet paper fast for a big profit before the weather changes and tree leaves are ample. :baiting:

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It depends on what you collect. I have many GA books that would be hard to replace in the same grade, so I'm not about to sell them. If I were a SA Marvel collector, I would cash out right now, buy into the stock market—which will recover more quickly than collectibles markets—cash out of that in three-to-six months, and then re-build my collection at a discount.

I think that is the X factor here, for example we have a housing shortage in California which makes the prices of homes very expensive. There could be a collector who has been waiting and waiting for the opportunity to get into a discounted market. It is not just that prices are going to be adjusted down during this crisis, it is the competition and opportunity from other investments which will give a more immediate or life changing priority that will compound this price correction in the market of GA/SA. I agree 100% that SA marvels which are in greater supply should be sold First, then GA if necessary. You have a much greater chance either to get them cheaper once this virus has cleared the planet as well as more being available that is going on the market.In Fact, if you can...trade up and sell SA into GA especially when every collector finally realizes that we are in a GA/SA market correction you have a opportunity to potentially trading up.. A minor point would be that possible the GA collector might be a greater age than the SA collector and be more financially stable and less likely to dump his or her collection and lived thru more crisis . The GA collector also might have a overall longer time as a collector..with a greater emotional commitment to our hobby as well as being in our great hobby much longer. I like SA books don't get wrong..FF5, ASM1 etc.., however it is possible also that more speculators have purchased SA tied to all the recent marvel  hit movies that have come out...which would mean more fast dumping once the widget goes down in value and more speculation which has increased the possibility of bubble value in the SA market.

 We cannot put our heads in the sand. For an unknown period of time we are going where no collector has ever gone before, the single most important thing I can advise all board members is  as follows:

1-Inventory your collection NOW and break it down into never sell, would not like to sell, can sell, and duplicates or stuff you are disinterested in. This action should be taken sooner rather than later regardless of whether you need the funds for now or in the future.

2 Take the duplicates and can sell and disinterested items and

 A-trade them for material you want ASAP

 B-Sell them ASAP and keep the money separate and buy in the later stages of this crisis for pennies on the dollar-E-Bay etc

 C-Consign them at a very attractive price to a buy it now organization so you do not have to wait for the next auction which might not happen or be in log jam against better material

 D-consign to a auction house and take your chances because of the time lag.

 E-Keep the $ for a rainy day, or buy more material that you consider to be never sell if you do not need the money for 12/18 months and have the knowledge that if you buy today that is will go down so you must have holding power for 12/18 months.

3-On the"would not like to sell material"..hold out for a better price, use caution and possible consignment at a fair and reasonable price given the crisis but be realistic...we are going into a down cycle where there could be possible civil unrest, Temporary stock market closures, and bank holidays. I just got a email from chase stating there are closing 20% of their branches as well as limiting hours they open. You need to factor that in on your "need" sell decisions for you and your family. Otherwise trade up to the "never sell material"

4-On the never will sell material, HOLD IT..as long as you have the power to say, I can last 12/18 months thru crisis. If not, make this material the last to go and hold out for as much as you can get.

 Any other suggestions on how to navigate this crisis would be appreciated.....

Edited by Mmehdy

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22 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

Going to be cross posting this.  Just got my winnings today.  No regrets on my end for spending the money.  The piece is spectacular in person.

C326F38F-9C84-44B9-B09D-74AE6CA666EB.jpeg

awesome ! :applause:

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5 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

awesome ! :applause:

Thanks Peter, I am super excited to finally have a Sunday.  The great thing is I still have my 4 dailies too!  Now comes the fun part, figuring out how to frame it.

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2 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Going to be cross posting this.  Just got my winnings today.  No regrets on my end for spending the money.  The piece is spectacular in person.

C326F38F-9C84-44B9-B09D-74AE6CA666EB.jpeg

It is a grail...fantastic

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3 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Going to be cross posting this.  Just got my winnings today.  No regrets on my end for spending the money.  The piece is spectacular in person.

C326F38F-9C84-44B9-B09D-74AE6CA666EB.jpeg

Nice purchase, Greg - it looks spectacular!

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19 minutes ago, mlansdown said:

Nice purchase, Greg - it looks spectacular!

I am definitely excited about this one.  I think it is the crown jewel of my collection.

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