The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, god503 said:

When they are done with college is when I officially stop working and retire.  I have a home on and island in greece and a home in pune India.  I plan on splitting up my time between those 2 places and where my girls are so I need to be mobile.  My comics will serve a purpose but in the end u can't take them with you...  got to enjoy life. 

Sounds like you have a good thing comics or not. I was only commenting on the state of higher education now and its cost. At least here in the US, it's kinda sorta dismal. We spend a lot for not very much. I have to imagine European schools and education MUST be superior. So, my stance toward selling my books to put my kids through college with the proceeds is justified only by my demographics. I applaud you and am happy for your good thing.

[god503]

3 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Sounds like you have a good thing comics or not. I was only commenting on the state of higher education now and its cost. At least here in the US, it's kinda sorta dismal. We spend a lot for not very much. I have to imagine European schools and education MUST be superior. So, my stance toward selling my books to put my kids through college with the proceeds is justified only by my demographics. I applaud you and am happy for your good thing.

The high cost is do to stupid fools that belive you can only get a top notch education at a school that cost 40k a year.  Thats total BS.  I am a proud graduate with a chemistry degree from the state university of ny at storybook.  WITH room and board it was 10k a year.  Even now it's only about 15k a year.  Now who wants to tell me that chemistry is different at Harvard or NYU vs state school!  I plan on telling my girls if they want to go to a 50k a year school's vs state school then they better find a way to pay for it because it's a waste of money.  Just my .02

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, god503 said:

The high cost is do to stupid fools that belive you can only get a top notch education at a school that cost 40k a year.  Thats total BS.  I am a proud graduate with a chemistry degree from the state university of ny at storybook.  WITH room and board it was 10k a year.  Even now it's only about 15k a year.  Now who wants to tell me that chemistry is different at Harvard or NYU vs state school!  I plan on telling my girls if they want to go to a 50k a year school's vs state school then they better find a way to pay for it because it's a waste of money.  Just my .02

Great point. We are a hop skip and a jump from Dartmouth College. An Ivy League school. Not sure exactly what it costs, but I bet it isn't $15k per year. I find that kids who want Ivy League schooling is usually because Mama and Daddy went to one OR the party scene is "awesome".

We walk dogs and do pet sitting and adoptions. How many people have I run into who insist on buying a dog for $3k? When a homeless dog NEEDS a home? There is NO breed you can buy that you cannot adopt. Absolutely none. For some reason, they believe that buying a dog for beaucoup bucks somehow gets them a better dog. That is not true at all.

[Darkowl]

59 minutes ago, IronMan_Cave said:

This is not like the 90s. Two important factors why

1. Back in the 90s, there were hardly any superhero movies. Today not only we have blockbuster movies, but we also have weekly Disney+ superhero shows, plus some other b-class shows like Arrow-verse, Batwoman, etc. Superhero is mainstream now. It's not just reserved to the niche geeky market like in the 70s-90s

2. Internet/Online marketplace, let say your 'hypothetical bubble' burst, who wouldn't jump on IH181 CGC 9+ at 5K??? ....lots of people will. With internet the marketplace is open-wide. Unless there's another Great Depression where even the upper-class need to have access to some cash, no one is dumping these semi-luxury items in hordes

 

I agree in that the current market isn’t like the one in the 90’s. This is definitely different. 

But that first factor you listed was already contributing to a gradual rise in prices long before the kind of rapid growth we’ve seen in the last few months (minus a couple exceptions). 

Other factors are at play now, and It’s become a game where the the highest selling BIN listing on eBay doesn’t take long to become the new standard asking price. It’s insanity and madness all rolled into one. 

Covid, lockdowns, stimulus money, tax returns, bored rich people, and baseball card collectors migrating our way are probably bigger contributors to the inflation than superhero movies, imo, though that too will always be a contributing factor.

So even though the components constructing this current situation are different from the components that built the bubble from the 90’s, we’re still facing a situation that most certainly resembles a bubble. 

This kind of growth just isn’t sustainable, imo. It’ll either level off soon or crash hard, regardless of how many superhero movies get made.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[ADAMANTIUM]

I may agree a little that it's not like the 90's 

Yet it seems that which was attempted by publishers in the 90's OS being tried today to see if it will succeed in a different climate. 

Hoooold on, you've got to hooooold on 

Toyourbut's

[Darkowl]

55 minutes ago, god503 said:

The high cost is do to stupid fools that belive you can only get a top notch education at a school that cost 40k a year.  Thats total BS.  I am a proud graduate with a chemistry degree from the state university of ny at storybook.  WITH room and board it was 10k a year.  Even now it's only about 15k a year.  Now who wants to tell me that chemistry is different at Harvard or NYU vs state school!  I plan on telling my girls if they want to go to a 50k a year school's vs state school then they better find a way to pay for it because it's a waste of money.  Just my .02

I attended a standard university, and remember when my physiology professor (a former Harvard professor) asked the class, “Do you know what the difference is between you and Harvard students? Money!”

Personally, I think quality of education isn’t provided by a school or it’s price tag, but by the professors themselves. Some are amazing, while others have no place in teaching at all, and it has nothing to do with the school they work for.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[InfantTerrible]

16 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

I agree in that the current market isn’t like the one in the 90’s. This is definitely different. 

But that first factor you listed was already contributing to a gradual rise in prices long before the kind of rapid growth we’ve seen in the last few months (minus a couple exceptions). 

Other factors are at play now, and It’s become a game where the the highest selling BIN listing on eBay doesn’t take long to become the new standard asking price. It’s insanity and madness all rolled into one. 

Covid, lockdowns, stimulus money, tax return, bored rich people, and baseball card collectors migrating our way are probably bigger contributors to the inflation than superhero movies, imo, though that too will always be a contributing factor.

So even though the components constructing this current situation are different from the components that built the bubble from the 90’s, we’re still facing a situation that most certainly resembles a bubble. 

This kind of growth just isn’t sustainable, imo. It’ll either level off soon or crash hard, regardless of how many superhero movies get made.

Leveling off/some sort of cooling down where prices go down slowly/gradually (until they find a floor) = probably

Crash = unlikely, for a crash to happen there has to be some catalyst, a drastic event that will force people dump their collection at the same time

Edited March 24, 2021 by IronMan_Cave

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, IronMan_Cave said:

Leveling off/some sort of cooling down where prices go down slowly/gradually (until they a floor) = probably

Crash = unlikely, for a crash to happen there has to be some catalyst, a drastic event that will force people dump their collection at the same time

I honestly have no clue what’s “more likely” anymore. I feel like we entered an alternate universe a year ago and anything is possible now.

Not only is my crystal ball broken, it’s completely missing.

[THE_BEYONDER]

6 minutes ago, IronMan_Cave said:

 

Crash = unlikely, for a crash to happen there has to be some catalyst, a drastic event that will force people dump their collection at the same time

That’s the thing.  The catalyst will be a lull in the market.  That lull will cause many to panic, which in turn will cause specs to start selling.   

[MatterEaterLad]

9 minutes ago, IronMan_Cave said:

Crash = unlikely, for a crash to happen there has to be some catalyst, a drastic event that will force people dump their collection at the same time

A concern is that because of all the wild speculation and record-setting prices a TON of books are being sent in to be graded at the moment -- possibly more than the market has an interest in.

I wish I knew how much of an uptick CGC or Voldemort have seen. If it's 5x or 10x there could be a glut in about six months as people who might send in 20 books a year are now sending 200. When all those books hit the auction sites we could have more books out there than the market can sustain. (I think high-end keys will be fine, but the rest could be in for a severe correction).

[MatterEaterLad]

5 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

That’s the thing.  The catalyst will be a lull in the market.  That lull will cause many to panic, which in turn will cause specs to start selling.   

This 100% 

[Ryan.]

Do bored rich people usually panic sell? 

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

Do bored rich people usually panic sell? 

I don’t think it’ll be the bored rich people doing the panic selling.

Even then, I’m sure bored, rich people don’t like to lose money.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[Galen130]

13 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

I honestly have no clue what’s “more likely” anymore. I feel like we entered an alternate universe a year ago and anything is possible now.

Not only is my crystal ball broken, it’s completely missing.

Same sort of thing with my magic 8 ball...except it's not missing.  It keeps telling me to leave a message!!!

Edited March 24, 2021 by Galen130

[InfantTerrible]

6 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

That’s the thing.  The catalyst will be a lull in the market.  That lull will cause many to panic, which in turn will cause specs to start selling.   

Why a lull in the market cause people to panic? You assume only speculators buying these items at inflated prices.....you ignore that there are some really rich collectors buying these with no intention of selling or no intention to make profit out of it

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

2 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

I don’t think it’ll be the bored rich people doing the panic selling.

Even then, I’m sure bored, rich people don’t like to lose money.

Especially if they don’t really care about the commodity they’ve invested in.   

[THE_BEYONDER]

1 minute ago, IronMan_Cave said:

Why a lull in the market cause people to panic? You assume only speculators buying these items at inflated prices.....you ignore that there are some really rich collectors buying these with no intention of selling or no intention to make profit out of it

 

The really rich collectors are a tiny percentage of those invested at this price level.  It’s investors.  Short-term investors I imagine.  When the prices stop going up, they will sell and invest somewhere else. 

[Ryan.]

5 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

Especially if they don’t really care about the commodity they’ve invested in.   

Maybe. But if I have enough money to toss $50k at an AF15 on a whim, and the value starts to tank, I'm assuming I can afford to stash it for as long as I need. 

[InfantTerrible]

 

3 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

The really rich collectors are a tiny percentage of those invested at this price level.  It’s investors.  Short-term investors I imagine.  When the prices stop going up, they will sell and invest somewhere else. 

 

Believe me if 'these investors' dump IH181 CGC 9+ at 5K, I'll buy 4, if it goes down further to 2K, I'll buy another 10

[Ryan.]

11 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

 

Even then, I’m sure bored, rich people don’t like to lose money.

Definitely. That's why I would expect them to hold instead of realizing a loss.