Those "plentiful" key issues... 1 1

[Readcomix]

Just now, kav said:

I hear ya.  I try to keep mine grocery bill below $150 a month.  I make a lot of home made pizza which is cheap and good.  I'm a master at pizza crust now!

Single, or at least empty nest? I remember when I was single (granted, adjust for 17 years ago) my weekly was about $35, and most of it was beer and cigars! 

What a great thread....I planned almost two hours ago to go downstairs and assemble a ridiculously esoteric sales thread (I cannot lie; trying to buy a GA cap tomorrow ) but this is worth holding off!

[kav]

7 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

Single, or at least empty nest? I remember when I was single (granted, adjust for 17 years ago) my weekly was about $35, and most of it was beer and cigars! 

What a great thread....I planned almost two hours ago to go downstairs and assemble a ridiculously esoteric sales thread (I cannot lie; trying to buy a GA cap tomorrow ) but this is worth holding off!

I've always been single and happily so!!!!  Good luck with the Cap!!!

[kav]

Ps the secret to great chewy pizza dough is moist dough-the dryer the dough, the more bready the crust.  I also add 2 Tbsp gluten.  Freakin delicious.

[Readcomix]

Just now, kav said:

I've always been single and happily so!!!!  Good luck with the Cap!!!

Thx! Will post if I land it.

(And while I love my family, I stayed single a long time so I fully understand that happiness! 

[Readcomix]

1 minute ago, kav said:

Ps the secret to great chewy pizza dough is moist dough-the dryer the dough, the more bready the crust.  I also add 2 Tbsp gluten.  Freakin delicious.

That did it...off to the kitchen!

[kav]

2 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

That did it...off to the kitchen!

Bwah ha ha!

[Knightsofold]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

The problem here with book # 2s  can be seen with select Golden Age books. That at a higher price point they have a much thinner market (people able & wiilling to afford them) -- so the prices actually become more volatile simply because they don't trade as frequently.

If a book # 2 only trades once every two years or so in a given grade , and yet bidders still use "last sale" prices on GPA as a price anchor, the book can miss out on normal expected price increases simply because of lack of sales volume to establish a price.

This is especially true if 1-2 prospective bidders drop out.

Silver Age Marvels, by comparison -- are very easy to value because there's enough trading volume to set an accurate price -- they are more liquid than some older -- and far rarer -- counterparts.

Example:

All-American Comics # 17, CGC 6.0.

Second appearance of the Green Lantern - decent Golden Age book. GPA shows the _exact same copy_ sold in Feb. 2007 for $3,650, then again in Dec. 2016 for $5,000. That's a mere 37% increase over more than 9.5 years.

That's about 3.5% per year. 

With more sales volume (say, 1-2 copies sold per year) I argue the book would have had much greater appreciation and a far more established, "stable" price.

The original comparison of book #1 and book #2 is that both books have recorded sales over the past 10 years, of a 10-15% increase.

Plus, most agree the gap between non-key to key in any age has been getting bigger and bigger for a while now, so again, I don't think it's a fair comparison.

 

But in the spirit of chit chatting our observations about supply and demand, I'll add some more thoughts and statistics.

Talking key issues, let's look at All American #16 the 1st appearance of Green Lantern from 1940. 

The book has fallen off as far as popularity,  yet I don't see any for sale. 

Census has less than 50 total copies...   For total GA keys in existence it's often said to multiply the census by x2-x5.  So maybe 100-250 total copies left.

GPA has:

3.5 $14,373 in 2002 - $66,000 in 2017 an increase of 359.13%.  

For Incredible Hulk #181 (9,261 total copies in the census)  GPA has:

6.5 for $255 in 2002 - $1,500 in 2017 an increase of 488.25%

I don't know how to adjust the % for inflation, but according to inflation calculators, $100 in 2002 has the purchasing power of $136.07 in 2017 due to the cumulative rate of inflation of 36.1%. 

I'm not sure how to compare the x2 or what it means, but even though the increase is lower, for a 10-20 year investment,  I think I'd rather have the one All American #16 in 3.5 over 44 6.5 copies of IH#181.  

One reason I'd go with the All American is I'd be afraid there would be even more IH #181s in 10 years from now. 

Using cgcdata.com (an awesome site) to compare the two books,

IH181 went from 660 universals on the census in 2002- 7,436 in 2017

All American 16 went from 6 universals on the census in 2002 to 22 in 2017

 

Someone with math and economic skills please school us. 

 

 

 

[valiantman]

12 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

If a book only trades once every two years or so in a given grade , and yet bidders still use "last sale" prices on GPA as a price anchor, the book can miss out on normal expected price increases simply because of lack of sales volume to establish a price.

...

With more sales volume (say, 1-2 copies sold per year) I argue the book would have had much greater appreciation and a far more established, "stable" price.

I've been thinking it for a while, but you've got it here in two sentences. 

There is some "sweet spot" between a book being "rare" but "not too rare" for an active market.  If we're talking about the major comic characters, it would seem that books like Batman #608 RRP and Amazing Spider-man #667 Dell'Otto variant have found that sweet spot.  There's no precedent for 21st century books to sell for the price of Golden/Silver Age classics of the same character... but they do.  The thing they offer is a rarity "sweet spot" between "rare" and "not too rare"... the market has grown (in an unprecedented way) because it didn't stagnate.

I think that the larger the demand, the larger the supply can be... and you'll still see steady growth.  So, while there are other 21st century books which are "rarer" than these two examples, they are for characters viewed as "lesser" than Batman or Spider-man.  Some comic might be extremely limited, 20 copies... 10 copies... but if it's not for a character in demand, then it won't reach Batman #608 RRP or other books with hundreds of copies.  However, the reverse is also true... if Marvel or DC were to create Spider-man or Batman books limited to 20 copies or 10 copies, they would be likely to exceed the value of Batman #608 RRP or ASM #667 Dell'Otto... or they might make both books less desirable by bumping them down the "rare" list.

[valiantman]

7 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

Using cgcdata.com (an awesome site) to compare the two books,

[lizards2]

10 hours ago, kav said:

Ps the secret to great chewy pizza dough is moist dough-the dryer the dough, the more bready the crust.  I also add 2 Tbsp gluten.  Freakin delicious.

I thought the secret was the alley cat?

Oops  -  there I let it out...,

[justafan]

13 hours ago, 90sChild said:

I dont have a solution to the problem but I can tell you what I observed in as little time as the past year.  I had interest in buying ASM #300 in CGC 9.6 and was watching them sell left and right for $350-375 towards the end of last year.  The occasional buy it now would grab $400 but the auction style would go for a bit less as they were constantly ending at multiple times throughout the day.  Being the patient bidder I am, I always tried to snag one at the sub-$360 price range.  I came real close but always was second highest bid multiple times.  If I had just bid $375 everytime I'd probably be sitting on multiple copies right now, but I stayed conservative with my bids.  So what is it that kept them selling in such a tight range between $350-$400? Everyone felt real comfortable that the price should be exactly that, and nobody wanted to sell it for less and nobody wanted to buy it for more.  It was the "safe zone" that people were reassured is exactly where they needed it to be to feel safe buying or selling.  

 

Then the movie news for venom hits and we are seeing them all sell now in the $600-750 price range.  A far more volatile zone.  There is even a buy it now sold at 900 on ebay.  So where did all these willing parties come from that suddenly changed what price zone they think is safe?  I'm not sure honestly.  Does it consist more of collectors or more of flippers?  If I had to guess, I would say it is more flippers than collectors because I do not believe the number of people entering our hobby have decided they are so much more willing now to spend over $600 when just a few months ago nobody wanted to pay over $400.  So all these people pushing the boundaries on what is an acceptible price are flippers and speculators.  I don't think it can be new hobbists.

I believe that most collectors will buy ONE copy at a price they can tolerate, then sit and hold for a while.  The amount of collectors just stashing multiple copies away are more speculators that still think of themselves as collectors.  Flippers and speculators drive the prices further and further based on how much they think it is safe to buy in that range.  $600 seems to be the new bottom with almost no sales dropping below that.  With so many copies selling daily, we see the new bottom line to invest.  

I don't own a copy of this and probably never will.  I imagine there are many who feel the same as I do, but the people who do decide $600+ is still palatable will be the people who think maybe one day they can get $800 for it.  Then the cycle continues.  The census numbers in 9.6/9.8 compared to the selling prices still boggles my mind today.  

man I should really just get back to work but this thread is pretty awesome and love all the great discussions and comments.  Anyway I think this kinda sums it up.

Ticket sales before/after sellout and this ASM 300 9.6 example are the perfect analogy for explaining why supply exists despite demand but demand prices change.  It all comes down to fear and irrational behavior and short term memories.  Why is it we won't pay that extra $40-50 to hit the $400 BIN when there's an auction ending and you're trying to get it for less?  Irrational human behavior.  We think that price is too high and always want something we consider to be a good or better deal. Then suddenly a movie comes out and speculators rush the market and sellers immediately drive up the price.  Why?  Demand has artificially and temporarily increased.  Suddenly anything at current pre-movie market prices is considered "cheap" and a deal.  So of course both fans fearing the price is inelastic for the long term and speculators wanting to get in begin to buy at higher and higher prices. $500, 600,..until...$900.  (I suspect the # of 9.8's will increase due to resubs)

Then 2 things happen:

1. most of the speculators enter a hold or sell approach and cease buying available copies fearing the "movie appreciation" has mostly been factored into the price and

2. most of the current market collectors quickly gobbled up copies in the run up and the rest are now facing sticker shock at the new higher floor. 

Hence the demand price suddenly rose to just under $900 or wherever it is now for an ASM 9.6.  If a copy is listed as BIN $950, it'll probably sit there for a while.  If it is listed with best offer from a speculator/dealer who got in early, you'll probably see it sell for $750-850.  Now frustrated but eager market collectors who know how to use WatchCount see that as the target market demand price and attempt to negotiate for that price or just below while BIN's sit at $900+. Newer buyers and fans of Venom who weren't aware of the previous price and run up also help contribute to the new pricing.  Suddenly that becomes the max market demand price.  Why are collectors who wouldn't pay the $400 suddenly willing to pay $750 for it just a few months later?  Fear and uncertainty of the elasticity of the price.  The movie hasn't even come out yet.  So in the run up and after the movie is released you'll see a price oscillation of the books and eventually a slow deflation in prices whose 9.6 prices have already come down to $750 + shipping some with best offers. 

Perhaps the way we should look at prices is if we want it right now but don't want to pay at current market prices would we still pay if suddenly all copies doubled in price but then one became available for $100 less?  If the answer is yes, then you should probably just buy it at the current price.  If you feel you know better, have patience and don't want to buy on the hype, you must remain disciplined and accept the risk having to pay more later.  but you may have to wait several years and be patient to get a copy that you want at a lower price.  If we all did this we wouldn't have to wait as long.

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

14 hours ago, lizards2 said:

I'm thinking of TOS 50.  Would like a nice copy, and soon I will have one.  BINs at much less than the top are now going un-BINd.  Enough collectors just have to say no, and bide there time until the book returns to its true value.  That is basically going on right now.

I remember making what I thought was a realistic offer on a copy  here on the boards, only to be chastised by the owner on how unrealistic it was.  I wonder if it ever sold for the original asking...., or somewhere south of my offer.

I'm lost on most Iron Man.... I've at least heard of Mandarin  

 

[lizards2]

2 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

14 hours ago, lizards2 said:

I'm thinking of TOS 50.  Would like a nice copy, and soon I will have one.  BINs at much less than the top are now going un-BINd.  Enough collectors just have to say no, and bide there time until the book returns to its true value.  That is basically going on right now.

I remember making what I thought was a realistic offer on a copy  here on the boards, only to be chastised by the owner on how unrealistic it was.  I wonder if it ever sold for the original asking...., or somewhere south of my offer.

I'm lost on most Iron Man.... I've at least heard of Mandarin  

Movie hype on IM 2 movie drove the price way up on TOS 50, but it turns out the movie Mandarin wasn't the real Mandarin.  Anyway, now there are all these encapsulated copies with high prices on eBay, however, I'm starting to see that issue making a downward dive based on some BIN prices.  However, I'm sure many are hanging onto the notion that pre-movie prices continue to be the FMV of the book.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

10 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Movie hype on IM 2 movie drove the price way up on TOS 50, but it turns out the movie Mandarin wasn't the real Mandarin.  Anyway, now there are all these encapsulated copies with high prices on eBay, however, I'm starting to see that issue making a downward dive based on some BIN prices.  However, I'm sure many are hanging onto the notion that pre-movie prices continue to be the FMV of the book.

Cool character, not relevant in the past 10 years. I mean, they tried awhile back (I think it was his daughter). But nowhere near as cool as he was in the 70's/80's.

[Aweandlorder]

Define "accessible"?

Available to everyone on eBay?

So all those who support that notion committed to the fact that eBay IS the official comic book market.

No

Accessible is ALL avenues of purchase; online, LCS, garage sales.. etc etc

The fact of the matter is that AF15 is ONLY common online BY PEOPLE WHO KNOW ITS WORTH. Dealers & flippers.

Now. So what, everyone asks, I have an internet connection and I can get AF15 shipped to my door, Im willing to pay the dealer price. cause eBay and auctions are an accurate reflection of the market.

OK. Good luck to you sir. Please escort yourself to the nearest exit and don't let the shillers hit you on your way out.

No. AF15 is not a common book. (DUH)

In fact, none of the LCS (remember those? you know, those comic book specialty shops that do NOTHING but retail comic books old and new) around me even have an AF15, and there are at least 2 dozen shops within miles away from me.  So not accessible there either.

Look at a thread like "garage/craigslist finds" (too lazy to link) on this board. A very active thread that goes back years in time, and features some of the most fantastic finds by some of the savviest of this collectors society. How many AF15 have you seen there?

No AF15 is not a common book. Anyone that agrees with that notion has a hidden political agenda, a horse in a race, or just wants to present a sophisticated point of view which actually is quite dumb.

Because reality sometimes is just as simple as that. 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2017 by Aweandlorder

[valiantman]

16 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

No AF15 is not a common book. Anyone that agrees with that notion has a hidden political agenda, a horse in a race, or just wants to present a sophisticated point of view which actually is quite dumb.

Because reality sometimes is just as simple as that. 

Since I'm the one who posted the topic, I'll assume that you might be referencing me... since you quoted no one.

If that's the case, I suggest you read the topic.  I made the case that "plentiful" descriptions don't apply if demand is so much higher (such as AF #15).

If you're talking to someone else, then not quoting them actually is quite dumb. 

Edited August 15, 2017 by valiantman

[Aweandlorder]

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Since I'm the one who posted the topic, I'll assume that you might be referencing me... since you quoted no one.

If that's the case, I suggest you read the topic.  I made the case that "plentiful" descriptions don't apply if demand is so much higher (such as AF #15).

If you're talking to someone else, then not quoting them actually is quite dumb. 

Why do I have to quote anyone?

Oh thats right were on the internets.. Theres GOTTA be an "us vs them" agenda here..

I was  actually being quite general with many points of reference as examples. Nothing personal against anyone

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

Why do I have to quote anyone?

Oh thats right were on the internets.. Theres GOTTA be an "us vs them" agenda here..

I was  actually being quite general with many points of reference as examples. Nothing personal against anyone

You made a statement that "Anyone that agrees ... actually is quite dumb."  As you say, it's the internets, so us dumbs must know which of us you're calling dumb.

Edited August 15, 2017 by valiantman

[Aweandlorder]

Just now, valiantman said:

You made a statement that "Anyone who ... actually is quite dumb."  As you say, it's the internets, so us dumbs must know which of us you're calling dumb.

I think youre taking my words too personal friend.

Whoever thinks that AF15 is a common book to find EVERYWHERE is dumb. I stand by my words

[atomised]

22 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

 

There are 39+ AF#15s on ebay right now, doesn't that mean we've reached prices no one is willing to pay?

how many with no marvel chipping?