Way to predict a comic book will be valuable?
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33 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, revat said:

The best way to predict what will be valuable would be to have been a active comic dealer for the last 40 years keeping meticulous notes and research data  and to have dual phd’s in statistics and econometrics plus an innate love of comics and pop culture with no other family or hobbies.  
 

and then to share all of your findings and best ideas for free to strangers on the internet many of whom are likely your direct and indirect competitors in both the purchase of inventory and customers.  

I check most of these boxes...I don't really share everything though...

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2 hours ago, clemson75 said:

I guess I was naive in my question, I understand there is no way to know if a book will explode in value. My question which was not thorough is more geared towards how do you stay informed? Going back to Walking Dead comic as example...how do you learn this book was going to be released? How do you keep up with artists? Do you pre-order comics? Is there a way I should order a comic in order to reduce damage other than going to store and grabbing off the shelf? Are there limited releases where only 1000 copies are made, if so how do you keep up with the news in comic world? 

Following artists and writers on social media is one way to stay informed of upcoming stories/projects.  Following certain subjects will keep you abreast of publisher events (ie following the Marvel subreddit should keep you up to date on major line wide events).  There's really not much you can do to stay informed on first appearances, let alone identify what will become a key first appearance.  When Electra took over the Daredevil mantle, word didn't spread until the night before.  Same with the daughter of Bane or Punchline.  Nevermind the fact that those characters could be completely forgotten this time next year (whatever happened to Lobo's daughter?).

I pre-order all my books now through DCBS.  They come bag and boarded and out of all the books I've ordered, I can probably remember only two instances where a book came damaged.  But as with any discount subscription service, you have to place your order months in advance.  As for limited release copies, I find those are generally store exclusives.  Under most circumstances that's a very niche market and unless there's a cover that is out of this world, there doesn't seem to be much long term value for many of the variant covers out there.  There might be a market for the 1:100 or 1:500 covers, but that's not my cup of tea.

At the end of the day, most books aren't worth classifying as an "investment".  The major keys that have stood the test of time would make solid investments, and you can certainly roll the dice on certain moderns (Ultimate Fallout #4 for example), but otherwise subscribing to a bunch of books hoping a few will strike it rich is a fools errand.  Buy what you like.  The wealth of memories is more worthwhile than the paper value of these books as they rise and fall through the years.

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1 hour ago, ExNihilo said:

Following artists and writers on social media is one way to stay informed of upcoming stories/projects.  Following certain subjects will keep you abreast of publisher events (ie following the Marvel subreddit should keep you up to date on major line wide events).  There's really not much you can do to stay informed on first appearances, let alone identify what will become a key first appearance.  When Electra took over the Daredevil mantle, word didn't spread until the night before.  Same with the daughter of Bane or Punchline.  Nevermind the fact that those characters could be completely forgotten this time next year (whatever happened to Lobo's daughter?).

I pre-order all my books now through DCBS.  They come bag and boarded and out of all the books I've ordered, I can probably remember only two instances where a book came damaged.  But as with any discount subscription service, you have to place your order months in advance.  As for limited release copies, I find those are generally store exclusives.  Under most circumstances that's a very niche market and unless there's a cover that is out of this world, there doesn't seem to be much long term value for many of the variant covers out there.  There might be a market for the 1:100 or 1:500 covers, but that's not my cup of tea.

At the end of the day, most books aren't worth classifying as an "investment".  The major keys that have stood the test of time would make solid investments, and you can certainly roll the dice on certain moderns (Ultimate Fallout #4 for example), but otherwise subscribing to a bunch of books hoping a few will strike it rich is a fools errand.  Buy what you like.  The wealth of memories is more worthwhile than the paper value of these books as they rise and fall through the years.

Ok, excuse me but WTF!? Ultimate Fallout 4 it has over 73,000 copies, barely 10 years old, and has an asking price of $200-500 for a CGC copy. Why?

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50 minutes ago, clemson75 said:

Ok, excuse me but WTF!? Ultimate Fallout 4 it has over 73,000 copies, barely 10 years old, and has an asking price of $200-500 for a CGC copy. Why?

1st Miles Morales.  The character has struck a chord with newer readers and has massively grown in popularity because of video games and an outstanding movie.  I posted a link in another thread, that book has 150,000 copies out (which counts 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc prints).  Even then, that's still lower than the books printed in the 90s and might even be lower than print runs in the 80s.  It's an easy book to find but I see the trajectory the character is taking and I believe that of all the first appearances in the last 10 years, that one seems to have sticking power.  I bought a raw NM copy just over a year ago for like $200.  I don't see that book falling below that amount 30 years down the road (but that's just my opinion).  Spider-Gwen would probably be my second pick (but I'm biased because I like Gwen and I like the design of her suit).

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1 hour ago, clemson75 said:

Ok, excuse me but WTF!? Ultimate Fallout 4 it has over 73,000 copies, barely 10 years old, and has an asking price of $200-500 for a CGC copy. Why?

Sometimes when a character becomes popular there price of the comic with 1st appearance goes up

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, clemson75 said:

If I were to get a book of value it would go towards my children’s future. 

Great, then buy Golden Age Batman comics either with villains on the cover or of his early days before Robin was around. It will cost you loads now but it's the only thing you are sure will retain it's worth and only go up as time goes on due to the ridiculous scarcity, which will always offset any wavering demand. This is what I did. I also bought Golden Age superhero books that had WWII themes since they have the benefit of more than on set of collectors sustaining demand and thus value. When looking towards the future, you have to think scarcity along with demand and the books I wrote about have that in spades.

Anything else is really a shot in the dark, especially right now more than ever.

Edited by William-James88
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Posted (edited)

roll the bones brother, roll the bones

 

And I like the look of hot Lobo!

:headbang:

Edited by Bird
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